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I am certainly not the first to suggest that Mexico is on the path to becoming a failed state. In fact some regions inside mexico already fit that description- nor is the problem simply due to drug trafficking.
Mexican oil production, a major source of government revenue, has been declining due to a host of reasons. Remittances from Mexicans in the US have not quite recovered from global economic problems which started towards the end of 2008.
You also might have heard that the US-backed war on drugs in Mexico (since 2006) is not going well- to put it mildly. The US-backed morons seem to be oblivious or deliberately ignorant of ground realities. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in this futile war, and the authorities are not winning by any objective measure.
To put it another way.. the level of violence, killings and lawlessness in Mexico rivals places in the Middle-East.
It is obvious that the Mexican government can no longer maintain and enforce civil law in a significant part of the country. Between that and loss of revenue from oil, remittances and decreased economic activity due to drug war- it is likely that things won’t end well.
Do you really think that the consequences of state failure in Mexico will not spill outside Mexico?