Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Musings, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism, Technology > My Cynical Take on the Iran Nuke Conundrum

My Cynical Take on the Iran Nuke Conundrum

As many of you know, I often take positions that are outside conventional ‘norms’ on a variety of issues. Here is another one..

I believe that the interests of all concerned parties are best served if Iran develops nuclear weapons.

You might wonder how I came to this rather odd conclusion. As I will demonstrate, my take on this issue is very rational. So let us start..

1. The technology needed to develop nuclear weapons is neither very hard nor that secret. Any nation at or beyond the level of 1950s-era USA can develop effective nuclear weapons. Most nations which can build nukes have chosen not to do so for non-technological reasons. No amount of sabotage or even bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is going to ultimately stop them from acquiring those weapons, if they really want to have them. Attacking Iran, if anything, will expatiate the process and rationale for acquiring them.

Unless the USA thinks that it has enough soldiers and money to occupy Iran for a few years, any military action is worse than useless. Nuking them is not really an option as it will cause every country in the world to build their own nukes for use against the USA and Israel.

2. A nuclear Iran is not going to become any more dangerous or capable than it is now. Using nukes in a first strike against Israel or the USA will be suicidal for them and their greedy and corrupt leaders are too cowardly to do that. It is also unlikely that Iran will give nukes to non-state actors as they would become the ‘return address’ for any retaliatory response subsequent to the use of those weapons.

Let us not forget that Iran is too dependent on oil and gas exports to run its economy. Any real or prolonged conflict is bad for business, and the leaders of Iran are as hypocritical, greedy, corrupt and luxury loving as those in other countries. Plus one of the factions in that country would be quite happy to drive the proverbial bus over another one if the latter is seen as responsible for bad decisions.

3. The youth in Iran are highly westernized and not interested in maintaining the current status quo. They are far more concerned in their jobs prospects, ability to buy houses and nice cars, take vacations etc. Even their fertility rates are sub-replacement and similar to European countries. Iran is not likely to become more religious or nationalistic unless it is attacked first.

Part of the reasons behind the current sabre rattling by Iran’s current leaders is that any conflict, tension or sanctions allows them to maintain their weakening grip on political power. Plus it does wonders for their revenue by pushing up the price of crude oil. Therefore the quickest way to screw over the current regime in Iran is to decrease the tensions and rhetoric, such that they have no real issues to justify their existence.

Now ask yourself..

Isn’t letting Iran build nukes the best way to destabilize their current leadership.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. March 13, 2012 at 9:36 pm

    I see nothing odd about your conclusion.

  2. March 13, 2012 at 11:01 pm

    Oil is obsolete. Even the Iranians know that.
    http://www.keshefoundation.com

  3. ThousandMileMargin
    March 14, 2012 at 12:29 am

    What about people who need another war to stay in business? Is peace in their interest?

    If I sell bombs, I need someone to bomb, otherwise how do I shift my inventory?

  4. Nestorius (A. Hourani)
    March 14, 2012 at 2:18 am

    The Khomeinist Empire will dissolve itself once Khamenei dies and conflict rises over succession. Khamenei is trying to impose his son Mujtaba as a successor, but the other Grand Ayatollahs oppose him. What happened in the last elections was just a glimpse into the worst that is coming there.

    The only war that the Khomeinist Empire is running right now is the war of ex-Syria (yeah, Syria is gone forever). This war will last long and will exhaust the Empire.

    Let’s just hope that Khamenei dies before those idiot Americans screw up everythng as usual.

  5. Webe
    March 14, 2012 at 3:56 am

    With a country like the USA to push you around, you’d have to be nuts not to want nukes. What possible reason would Persians have for not wanting a few as a backup plan ?

  6. hans
    March 14, 2012 at 7:49 am

    Iran building nukes is directly related to Iran developing homegrown steam water nuclear reactors. Thus destroying the western monopolies of ABB etc.
    Of course they are gunning for nukes, they have to. North Korea clearly proves that.
    If they actually wanted energy independence, they would go for thorium reactors.
    But you can´t generate enriched uranium with that tech.

    Also Israel is holding the Arabs hostage with THEIR nukes for quite some time now. Actually they are holding EVERYBODY hostage, but that´s pretty much ignored in the West as long as our politicians are corrupt enough to be bribed and extorted.

    • March 14, 2012 at 8:42 am

      What is ABB?
      And what do you think we should do about the Israeli nukes? Why haven’t they been used already?

    • Nestorius (A. Hourani)
      March 14, 2012 at 9:43 am

      What Arabs? There are no Arabs.

      • hans
        March 15, 2012 at 2:00 pm

        For brevities sake I was using “Arabs” as a general description for the peoples of the middle east.

        Of whom ALL know that there´s an Israeli nuke aimed at their capital cities.

      • Nestorius (A. Hourani)
        March 15, 2012 at 2:35 pm

        But history shows that the Israelis never needed their nukes to win against a farce enemy.

  7. Matt Strictland
    March 14, 2012 at 9:23 am

    This isn’t unreasonable at all. Solid thinking, AD.

  8. Kaz
    March 14, 2012 at 11:16 am

    Yeah this is pretty well established and has been for a while. Regardless, I can’t believe ‘conventional’ thinking assumes attacking Iran to be the best course of action.

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