So, What is Your ‘Plan B’?

During times of unprecedented socio-economic changes, most people believe only type of outcome is possible. However their certainty about the eventual outcome comes in two flavors.

Nostalgia– They either wish, hope or yearn for a simpler time.

OR

Linearization– Think that the scam can continue without system evolution.

While both beliefs might appear to be different, they are derived from the same base assumption- “neither the game, nor its rules, have changed” aka the ‘steady state assumption’.

Strategies to cope based on a ‘steady state’ world-view can be seen as ‘Plan A’.

There have been periods in human history characterized by negligible change for hundreds or even thousands of years. However the pace, nature and extent of changes in the last 200 years has no real equivalent in human history- since or before the invention of writing and record keeping.

The only thing we have learned from the last 200 years is that the future can be more bizzare, unpredictable, full of opportunities and dangers than we could have foreseen, in our wildest dreams. Therefore, any belief in a steady state world borders on stupidity irrespective of how intelligent it sounds.

The real question then is-

How can you adapt to a system which you do not fully understand? How do you make decisions in a changing world, with less than optimal information? What is your ‘Plan B’ irrespective of its flavour?

Comments?

  1. Mike
    September 22, 2010 at 9:48 pm

    Great question.

    I invest in myself by keeping in shape and reading widely/studying many subjects. I am “mobile.” I know first aid and have non-trivial amount of firearms and survival skills.

    If I lived in another area, I’d have massive canned goods stored.

    In a zombie like scenario, or scene involving mass lotting, it’s hard to see any hope. Even people in rural areas will be overrun.

    The best a person can do is anticipate bad conditions, and move before total collapse. Barring total collapse, the investment must be in YOURSELF.

    What are you doing to prepare?

  2. Nestorius
    September 23, 2010 at 12:51 am

    Plan A or Plan B: If you change the rules on what controls you, you will change the rules on what you can control.

    • Nestorius
      September 23, 2010 at 12:52 am

      Corollary: There is no escape from death.

  1. September 26, 2010 at 3:03 am

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