Home > Critical Thinking, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Complex Systems Can Magnify Events

Complex Systems Can Magnify Events

Many clever morons believe that the world does not change beyond the predictions of their pathetic, antiquated and incomplete models. Reality suggests otherwise..

Let me explain-

What was the maximal effect that 19-20 guys with gladius-type swords could have hoped to achieve during the roman empire?

Now, what effect did the infamous 19, armed with box-cutters, have on the US economy, zeitgeist and way of living.

So what changed? Clever morons might dismiss it as the effects of “multiculturalism” etc, but what was the real reason for its impact?

Could the real reason be that technology, in all its manifestations, made the system magnify its impact? Would it have had the same impact in a world without computers, cell-phones, cable news and high connectivity? Would that event even been possible without the development of cheap wide-bodied jets? Did that event not set off a whole series of secondary/tertiary events, some related and others not immediately obvious whose impact is now part of our reality?

Would it have had the same impact in the 1970-80s? What about the 1950-60s? See the pattern?

Likewise, the casualties suffered in ww1 and ww2 battles would now be considered unacceptable. Why? Because at that time the system was simpler, much less productive but also more robust. Moreover, such casualties were considered “normal” then. Today we know better, and people have a far more cynical view of governments, war and nationalism. Plus we have nukes.

Once again, the same pattern can be seen.

A combination of developments in technology, communication and social attitudes will always make older assumptions about how people behave and react obsolete. The net effect of such changes will close many older avenues for action while simultaneously opening new ones.

However, perceiving reality requires the ability to be an objective observer. Clever morons lack the ability to be objective, unlike small kids.


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  1. October 31, 2010 at 1:38 pm

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