Archive for March 13, 2012

My Cynical Take on the Iran Nuke Conundrum

March 13, 2012 13 comments

As many of you know, I often take positions that are outside conventional ‘norms’ on a variety of issues. Here is another one..

I believe that the interests of all concerned parties are best served if Iran develops nuclear weapons.

You might wonder how I came to this rather odd conclusion. As I will demonstrate, my take on this issue is very rational. So let us start..

1. The technology needed to develop nuclear weapons is neither very hard nor that secret. Any nation at or beyond the level of 1950s-era USA can develop effective nuclear weapons. Most nations which can build nukes have chosen not to do so for non-technological reasons. No amount of sabotage or even bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is going to ultimately stop them from acquiring those weapons, if they really want to have them. Attacking Iran, if anything, will expatiate the process and rationale for acquiring them.

Unless the USA thinks that it has enough soldiers and money to occupy Iran for a few years, any military action is worse than useless. Nuking them is not really an option as it will cause every country in the world to build their own nukes for use against the USA and Israel.

2. A nuclear Iran is not going to become any more dangerous or capable than it is now. Using nukes in a first strike against Israel or the USA will be suicidal for them and their greedy and corrupt leaders are too cowardly to do that. It is also unlikely that Iran will give nukes to non-state actors as they would become the ‘return address’ for any retaliatory response subsequent to the use of those weapons.

Let us not forget that Iran is too dependent on oil and gas exports to run its economy. Any real or prolonged conflict is bad for business, and the leaders of Iran are as hypocritical, greedy, corrupt and luxury loving as those in other countries. Plus one of the factions in that country would be quite happy to drive the proverbial bus over another one if the latter is seen as responsible for bad decisions.

3. The youth in Iran are highly westernized and not interested in maintaining the current status quo. They are far more concerned in their jobs prospects, ability to buy houses and nice cars, take vacations etc. Even their fertility rates are sub-replacement and similar to European countries. Iran is not likely to become more religious or nationalistic unless it is attacked first.

Part of the reasons behind the current sabre rattling by Iran’s current leaders is that any conflict, tension or sanctions allows them to maintain their weakening grip on political power. Plus it does wonders for their revenue by pushing up the price of crude oil. Therefore the quickest way to screw over the current regime in Iran is to decrease the tensions and rhetoric, such that they have no real issues to justify their existence.

Now ask yourself..

Isn’t letting Iran build nukes the best way to destabilize their current leadership.

What do you think? Comments?