Home > Uncategorized > Ideological Filters and Predictions about the Future

Ideological Filters and Predictions about the Future

It is hard to spend any significant amount of time on the internet and not come across a few overt, and not so overt, predictions about the future. The majority of such predictions display a high degree of certainty and are the products of ideologically committed minds aka zealots. I would go so far as to say that a high degree of ideological, monetary or emotional investment in any particular world view by the ‘prophet’ is the best indicator his predictions will turn out be grossly incorrect.

It is hard to predict the future accurately, especially if you have tunnel vision and ideological autism.

The more accurate predictions about the future are based on the recognition of certain largely ignored aspects of physical reality and human beings:

1. It is impossible for individuals or groups, irrespective of their ability, to reliably create a desired long-term outcome of any significance.

The world is incredibly complex and has too many hidden feedback loops to make it behave in a predictable manner. Case in point- Eugenics was an idea that seemed right until some guy with a funny mustache came to power in 1930-era Germany. After that, a belief that was the mark of progressive thinkers quickly became something few sane people would associate themselves with. Similarly nuclear weapons, which were developed by the USA to dominate and enslave the world, quickly became the means by which the USA and other western countries lost that ability. I could think of many more beliefs, ideologies, actions, inventions and discoveries which ended up doing the opposite of what they were intended to achieve, but that is best discussed in another post.

2. Complex systems do not display linear behavior outside a narrow and constantly changing range.

I have discussed this in a few previous posts in more detail, but will summarize it once again. Trends that link ‘x’ to ‘y’ and/or assume constant rates of change over time are ephemeral. For example any prediction that the Chinese GDP (in USD) will exceed that of the USA in any given number of years assumes that the either or both countries will still exist at that date in their current form and that world trade will still occur in USDs. It also assumes that the nature of the economy and governance in both countries will remain roughly similar to what it is today. Such predictions are akin to predicting world events in 1955 based on the “best” information available in 1940.

3. Modeling the behavior of people based on widely held beliefs about their motivations and abilities usually turns out to be wrong.

In previous posts I have said the best explanation why the rich want more money is linked to their conscious or subconscious desire, to deprive others rather than enjoy their wealth. While this explanation does against conventional beliefs of why people accumulate money beyond the point of rational usability, it is a better fit to evidence. Now consider the implications of believing in either viewpoint on modeling human behavior for the purpose of predictions. If you believe that rich people want more money for reasons other than depriving others then giving them more money could be seen as a way to benefit the society that made them rich. So how has that worked out in practice? Has giving the already rich more money benefited the societies that made them rich or has it just made the rich more greedy and arrogant? If the elites of western countries were so smart and competent, why did they lead their countries into mostly humiliating and horrendously expensive disasters such WW1, WW2, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan? Could it be that the elite are lucky egoistic pretenders and bullshitters who are drawn to situations which expose their incompetence or react in ways that ensures their downfall?

Of course, all predictions are also based on the continued existence of human beings in a familiar biological form. I will explain what I am hinting at in a future post.

What do you think? Comments?

Categories: Uncategorized
  1. P Ray
    August 28, 2012 at 8:00 pm

    is linked to their conscious or subconscious desire, to deprive others rather than enjoy their wealth.
    Reminds me of this article:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2193506/Humans-innate-sense-fairness-means-wed-short-changed-say-scientists.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

  2. Rum
    August 28, 2012 at 9:18 pm

    No bodies
    guesees regarding the future of ecomonic bebaviour, as contracted worth more than MOMENTARY GOLD (butbstill Keep IT….mARY TO DUES-PAYING gYPSIE Forum

  3. Rum
    August 28, 2012 at 9:31 pm

    Gold is valuable to the exact degree you can successfully fight to keep it/ Beyond that is is just another whore living in the kingdom of whores… Imaginary valuatioms.But absolutes perfect for payimg for your the lomg term debts madeup out of enthusiasm and cold hearted predation
    You cannot ear Gold coins but a plethora of cheap jead bullets in the right time and plan…make a guy into the next B, Gates.

  4. ultimatecoolguy
    August 29, 2012 at 2:54 am

    What do you think about the predictions in the misandry bubble?

    http://www.singularity2050.com/2010/01/the-misandry-bubble/

  5. NrN
    August 29, 2012 at 11:55 am

    Some interesting points on this topic. Would like to hear more about this topic. Although, I predicted there was going to be a Same-Day-Second-Post with some more examples posted 47 minutes ago (instead of in the next few days or months), but my quess was off.

  6. jose
    September 1, 2012 at 3:15 pm

    the us is king to the world it possesses technology which can read peoples minds insert thoughts and if needed can take complete control of the mind and body when they are done the body returns to conciousnes but it is as no time has passed so they have the subject intoxicate themselves before it is done. manipulation of thought and all the sences is possible especially sight and sound. The leaders of the world are already doing americas bidding it is only a matter of time before the world is america but no one will know what happened.This is a weapon which is greater than the atom bomb .They can shut the body off and do it to areas the size of countries. If there was a war the us can kill off a whole area whatever the satellites can cover at this time. That is why the us is trying to reduce nuclear weapons they are obsolete to them.The entire us is already linked to the system. If you dont believe you are ignorant high ranking officials have already stated that the usas secret societies like the cia and nsa are 30 to 50 years more advansed in technology than the real world companies and tech colleges are.

  1. August 29, 2012 at 5:09 pm
  2. September 1, 2012 at 8:02 pm

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