Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Musings, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Fertility Rates in Stable Middle-Eastern Countries

Fertility Rates in Stable Middle-Eastern Countries

Most ME countries had fertility rates of about 7 in 1960 (Lebanon was a bit lower). Today almost every single one is between 2 and 3 (Iran is at 1.7).

Isn’t it odd that countries as different as Sunni monarchies (Saudi Arabia), Secular Dictatorships (Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia), Shia Theocracies (Iran) and Sheikdoms (Kuwait, Baharin, UAE) followed a similar trend with a precipitous drop in fertility beginning in the 1980s. Also consider that with the exception of Lebanon, Iran, Tunisia and possibly Egypt these countries don’t have a lot of women working outside the home.


What do you think? Comments?

  1. EvilOne
    September 5, 2012 at 10:28 pm

    Does the graph include fertility for immigrant groups? For example, only 20-25% of the United Arab Emirates population is local – have citizenship. Another 30-40% is probably from other arab countries, and the rest Bengalis/Indians/Pakistanis.

  2. P Ray
    September 5, 2012 at 10:53 pm

    Isn’t it odd that countries as different as Sunni monarchies (Saudi Arabia), Secular Dictatorships (Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia), Shia Theocracies (Iran) and Sheikdoms (Kuwait, Baharin, UAE) followed a similar trend with a precipitous drop in fertility beginning in the 1980s.
    Maybe that was the time feminism came into vogue there. Hence fertility drop due to hypergamy.

    • Webe
      September 6, 2012 at 6:00 am

      Nah, it proves that most social change is not brought on by ideology or intellectual foment — that’s all epiphenomonal. Look at the evolution of the western welfare state in the 20th century. Everywhere you see the same kind of policies, regardless of differences between countries and regardless of left-wing/right-wing ideology on the part of the party in charge.

  3. samseau
    September 6, 2012 at 7:46 am

    These countries have become so overcrowded and poor that they can’t afford to have kids anymore.

    Are you stupid or delusional? The drop in fertility went hand in hand with improving lifestyles and more money.

    • samseau
      September 9, 2012 at 12:44 pm

      Nope. You’re the retard. You actually think GDP measures how well off the average family is doing. Do you have any idea how insanely concentrated wealth is in the average Arab society?

      If money and new living spaces were plentiful more men in these countries would be snagging wives and impregnating them, it’s part of their culture.

  4. jackal
    September 6, 2012 at 8:17 am

    The fertility rate of wild animals is a direct function of the food supply in the environment. The population of rabbits, for example, explodes during a wet monsoon season, implodes during drought. The mechanism of human fertility functions no differently. When people perceive doom and gloom on the horizon, the subliminal mechanism kicks in and throttles fertility. Welfare programs provide people with an artificial perception of a brighter future, explaining why the indigent fertility rate is higher than that of the mainstream population.

  5. Ras Al Ghul
    September 6, 2012 at 9:35 am

    There is only one explanation for rates of reproduction dropping.

    Only one cause:

    The more educated the women are, the less children they have.

    That’s it.

    You can chart education and literacy levels with the female population of each of these countries and that’s the one factor that matters.

    What you should really be thinking about is how these countries with such a dramatic drop off that has occurred so suddenly are going to deal with a population aging faster than ours.

    The drop off has been gradual in the west and it has caused problems, the drop off in the ME has been like a waterfall.

  6. Wilson
    September 6, 2012 at 10:57 am

    Also before the Pill contraception wasn’t easy. Generally after 1 or 2 who doesn’t get sick of kids?

  7. hans
    September 6, 2012 at 2:01 pm

    Ras Al Ghul :
    There is only one explanation for rates of reproduction dropping.
    Only one cause:
    The more educated the women are, the less children they have.
    That’s it.

    And this so called education is in fact just plain old indoctrination.
    There´s only one real reason a wimminz on this planet wants many kids.
    Safety.

    The poorer the more safety(=avalanche of crotchfruits), you can stick your faulty Darwinist thinking where the sun don´t shine. Her rationalization hamster is calling the shots here.
    Just make them believe they too can have a job, making them pay income tax for work they formerly did anyway in their own homes. Just so big-pimp-daddy-state can pay them later in life when they are old, haggard and useless (after 45 or so) and call it retirement.

    And boy will we ALL be having a big laugh, when that pyramid scheme breaks down in a decade or a half.

    • Ras Al Ghul
      September 6, 2012 at 10:42 pm

      Hans,

      While I’m sure indoctrination inevitably occurs, the easiest measure of education level is simply literacy.

      As the percentage of women that can read increases, fertility drops.

      When feminists decry the ancient patriarchy for wanting to keep women uneducated and pregnant, there is an element of truth to this.

      The old patriarchs recognized the connection between education and fertility, educated women leads to the end of the tribe and nation because birth rates drop severely.

      Kind of disheartening.

      • P Ray
        September 7, 2012 at 12:34 am

        educated women leads to the end of the tribe and nation because birth rates drop severely.
        If only because the women only want to have babies by the richest or thuggiest men, such that no other man can measure up unless she’s diseased, abused or pregnant (in other words, pays full price for used…)
        I don’t think the tribe comes to an end because of a drop in birth rates: it comes to an end because the men refuse to have a stake in it, and move off if they can, or engage in criminality or avoidance if they can’t.

      • jackal
        September 7, 2012 at 4:44 am

        Quote: (in other words, pays full price for used…)

        This phrase is the funniest thing I will read all month. It’s stand-up comic.

  8. September 8, 2012 at 6:48 pm

    It’s kind of obvious.

    Single, rural men travel to the cities to make money.

    Some of them die/are maimed by the work (and don’t reproduce.)
    Some of them die due to warfare/gang activity/suicide bombing (and don’t reproduce.)
    Some of them find a patron and expatriate (their spawn don’t count, its their new country’s burden.)
    Some of them find a patron and become gay/leave the closet (and don’t reproduce.)
    The women, due to the strength depletion, are fast tracked through the education system to increase their options. Education=liberalism. Women who would have been happy as a poor man’s first wife/rich man’s newest wife are now too “educated” to settle. They also go overseas or hunker down at their jobs (this is endemic in richer, non-Saudi countries.) They don’t reproduce, or are able to spit out one child. On top of that, Islam gives the wife the final say on any additions to the family (outside of the most patriarchal/retrograde sects), and educated women will bring down the banhammer on new wives.

    It’s akin to black America. We’re bombarded with stories about “Rough Ricky” making 20 babies with twelve women, or “Fertile Fanta” having 10 kids with 3 different baby daddies, but the entire population continues to decline. The smart black people don’t reproduce, the dumb ones are pared off by fatal violence/incarceration and the liberalisation of society causes an increase in “out” homosexuals (people who would have “done their duty” in the Fifties are now “out and proud”.) If the vast majority of your people are producing 0-1 children, and the children of your prolific breeders have a less-than-50% chance of reproducing, your numbers are going to drop. When you switch from a rural environment (which promotes fecundity) to an urban environment (which rewards parents who limit their fertility), birth rates drop. For an example from a European country, look at Germany. The families in the former East Germany often include 4-5 children. The families in rural Germany include 2-4 children. The families in urban Germany are often childless.

    tl;dr-rural families with limited entertainment options and a need for extra farming hands are large, urban families with access to multiple entertainment options/limited space/loosening of sexual norms are small. As the Islamic world urbanises, their fertility drops.

    • P Ray
      September 8, 2012 at 11:23 pm

      They also go overseas or hunker down at their jobs (this is endemic in richer, non-Saudi countries.)
      So that they can catch the eye of Mr. Big at work.
      It’s always funny, the women who are “too busy for relationships” always have time for a quickie with the boss.
      The ones who say “I want a nice guy” always seems to have had a past of picking the ones who decided to leave them(sometimes with diseases, pregnancy, injuries or debt).
      What guys women are interested in when they have options (i.e. are young, available and debt-free), are the ones they’re really attracted to.

  9. September 9, 2012 at 5:11 am

    Ras Al Ghul :The drop off has been gradual in the west and it has caused problems, the drop off in the ME has been like a waterfall.

    And the ME doesn’t have euthanasia, unlike the west. There is a very good chance Eurabia won’t be Muslim…

  1. September 29, 2012 at 2:17 pm
  2. April 14, 2013 at 5:15 pm

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