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Two Proxies for Determining the Actual Level of Knowledge

We have all seen and heard tons of “experts” engage in public demonstrations of their supposed deep understanding about some area of knowledge. We have also seen many examples where the subsequent course of events have clearly demonstrated that they were wrong. Indeed, many “experts” try to normalize their past blunders by claiming that making mistakes is the only way science and knowledge can progress. While that may be partially true, these “experts” almost always forget that concept when criticizing the ideas of those who are not part of their social circle, academic “pedigree” or skin color. My point is that any person who is called, or considered to be, an “expert” is almost always a con-artist who has been especially successful in evading scrutiny.

But that leaves us with a peculiar problem. How do we separate quality knowledge from speculation, lies and bullshit. This is especially problematic as many “experts” hide their incompetence behind degrees from supposedly “prestigious” institutions, social positions, supposed hyper-specialization, arcane language and sophistry. So how do we know who is lying and how much? Well, I have given this issue some thought and come up with two easy to use, fast and highly accurate proxies to help you cut through the web of lies, sophistry, deceit and bullshit.

Proxy 1: The number of plausible theories about something is inversely proportional to the actual understanding about that thing or phenomena.

Prior to the microbial theory of infectious diseases, people believed that such illnesses were caused by everything from divine wrath, evil spirits, bad karma, poisonous air to laziness and insolence. It did not help that all of those theories did sound equally plausible as none of them was capable of explaining observable reality. Contrast that situation to the present day, when pretty much everybody understands that infectious diseases are caused by microbes. Moreover, the association between a particular type of pathogenic microorganism and an illness can always be verified by a variety of experimental techniques that stand up to scrutiny.

The same cannot however be said about many chronic non-infectious diseases. It is therefore no surprise that “experts” routinely come up with new, recycled and mutually contradictory theories about the etiology of diseases such as Type 2 Diabetes, Alzheimer’s and Coronary Artery Disease. Even worse, the most widespread theories about the etiology of such diseases do not stand up to reality. For example- of all the cholesterol lowering medications approved to date, only the ‘statins’ demonstrate decent (but not great) efficacy at lowering mortality and morbidity from Coronary Artery Disease. Then there is the issue of why no approved drug for Type 2 diabetes has any significant positive effect on the excess risk of Myocardial Infarctions (heart attacks)- which is the single biggest cause of premature death in people with that disease.

And this brings us to the second proxy for determining the actual level of knowledge about a thing, phenomena or process.

Proxy 2: A good understanding of a thing, phenomena or process will quickly leads to multiple, robust and viable strategies for utilizing that knowledge.

Today new cars are not hard to design, build or repair because the principles and factors that govern their performance have been understood for over a century. Similarly complex new airlines can be designed and partially tested on computers because we have very good mathematical models and a solid theoretical understanding of the engineering (and other) principles behind each and every part that is used to build them. Nor are we surprised when companies like Intel or Samsung can keep on building every smaller, faster and better CPUs for personal computers and smartphones. The same is true about large-scale and important chemical process for synthesizing compounds like ammonia or plastics and polymers. Similarly even complex and finicky chemical process such as fractionating various varieties of crude oil have been mastered to the point where the biggest challenges with building new refineries are related to environmental concerns.

Now compare this level of competence and confidence to the hype surrounding high-efficiency “organic” solar cells, exotic “high-capacity” rechargeable batteries, controlled and energy positive nuclear fusion or new therapies based on human genomics. Or take all those breathless reports about exciting cancer therapies. Have there really been any new “paradigm-changing” shifts in that area of medicine for the last thirty years? Look at the survival rates for all types of cancers. Sure things are better than they were thirty years ago- but most of the changes have come from non-invasive diagnostic methods, less-horrible surgical interventions and more thoughtful use of older drug in combination.

In summary, the two best proxies for determining the actual level of knowledge come down to how well we can explain observable reality and use that knowledge for our benefit. Anything else is lies, scams and sophistry.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. February 9, 2014 at 7:41 pm

    oh knoes…

    I readed this article and now I feel sooo bad shopping at Walmart…

    http://gawker.com/decades-of-greed-behind-the-scenes-with-an-angry-walma-1517661634

    but where else can I got to buy mt dew, twinkies, depends, male bras and they have a mcdonalds in the store…

  2. Fuck Jared Taylor and the Uncouth Reflections horse they rode in on
    February 12, 2014 at 3:01 am

    Just wanna say, the blog ‘uncouth reflections’ that trackbacked to this blog…

    champions the racist Jared Taylor as ‘the word’s bravest man’. For fuck’s sake.

    http://uncouthreflections.com/2014/02/01/the-worlds-bravest-man-discusses-income-inequality/

    Now I know, think, the Southern Poverty Law Center is an over the top “hate” group that demonizes people who don’t deserve to be demonized, it’s a disgusting group, I spit on SPLC, but it’s correct on it’s take on Jared Taylor.

    http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-files/groups/american-renaissance

    This blog can critique global warmist “theory”… but to be associated in the slightest with turds who believe that failed “twin study” racism that has not led to any objective proof of “inferiority” of blacks, is hypocrisy. That’s the definition of race baiting sophistry. Some statistical turds who can’t prove JACK SHIT about molecular genetics, make flawed statistical claims about categories, and that’s gospel in the white racist race and IQ world. The turd who is described as the ‘bravest man in the world’ is pictured in front of a green screen book shelf which contains a human skull. No doubt this is a nod to phrenology.

    The convoluted turn of pseudoscience that has not led to any solid results, is seen in climate science just as much as it is seen in “intelligence” so called “science”.

    Anybody that claims Jared Taylor is the bravest man in the world, is a piece of fucking shit. The blogmaster of ‘uncouth reflections’, is therefore a piece of shit.

    I have enjoyed this blog, and a mere “trackback” is no indictment of Advocatus Diaboli the owner of this blog, but fuck, if sicko racist eugenicist pseudo-scientists, the worst of the worst, are fans of this blog, then fuck me, I want to know what the blog owner thinks of this dog shit, in preparation for me either deleting this blog from my bookmarks or otherwise.

    I’m down with not giving a fuck about what other people think of us, but if a trackback from a sicko ‘eugenic’ racist propagater, like ‘uncouth reflections’ has any respect, he can go fuck himself. I don’t believe in socialism, warmism, or any of this shit, but a turd that hides behind fraudulent garbage twin studies as “absolute proof” that other “races” are “inferior” needs to be destroyed. This is a public figure that fucked up, he had a chance to contribute to the public life, and he made a fool of himself… very few men would have the balls to go and fuck up in this way…

    and

    But I like the blog owner, and I don’t hold him responsible for the fuck heads that decide to link to him,.

    Here are three examples of what I think about that subject..

    https://dissention.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/trashing-another-conservative-belief-race-income-and-iq/

    https://dissention.wordpress.com/2010/10/07/the-gi-bill-was-affirmative-action-for-poor-whites/

    https://dissention.wordpress.com/2012/01/15/inconsistencies-in-defining-crime-and-criminality/

  1. February 11, 2014 at 6:21 pm

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