Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism, Technology > Fake Moral Outrage by Establishment against Trump will Benefit Him: 3

Fake Moral Outrage by Establishment against Trump will Benefit Him: 3

In the previous post of this series, I talked about how the rapid and continuing fall of public trust in mainstream media over the last 15 years has greatly diminished their ability to hurt Trump’s chances in the 2016 general election. This fall in public trust has greatly diminished the ability of other associated organs of the media to hurt Trump’s real-life popularity. Many of you might have heard about a series of “polls” conducted by various mainstream media outlets over last 3-4 weeks that supposedly show HRC with 7-12% point leads over Trump.

So you might ask- aren’t all these recent “polls” evidence of the decline of Trump’s popularity and chances of winning the general election?I would say – NO. Here are the reasons I think that most, if not all, of the recent telephone-based polls might have been rigged to spread a false narrative about Trump losing to discourage his supporters from actually casting their vote in the general election.

1] Both HRC and Trump had better than 99% name recognition among the american electorate prior to them even entering the primaries of their respective parties. Compare that to previous presidential elections and ask yourself- did previous presidential candidates like Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Bob Dole, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney had such widespread name recognition among the electorate prior to announcing their intention to run for office? Some of you might ask- why does that matter? Well.. it matters because most people make up their initial impressions about others after getting to know them and will continue to maintain that impression unless confronted with multiple lines of evidence that they were wrong.

In other words, we have all known (for over two decades) that Trump is a brash loudmouth who loves to associate and have sex with attractive and often much younger women. I would go so far as to say that revelations of Trump being a secret beta and nice guy would have done far more damage to his image and popularity than behaving like himself. Similarly, HRC has almost always been almost perpetually associated with shady deals, ‘legal’ lying, selling political favors, taking money from other rich people and generally being a robotic corporate puppet. Even her staunchest public supporters do not describe her as honest, trustworthy or a decent human being.

Given these facts, it is hard to believe that people are actually surprised by revelations that Trump enjoys the sexual company of attractive women. I mean.. he was just saying what every physiologically normal guy in the world thinks and would like to do- and most women know that too. As many of you know, HRC’s husband has actually settled charges of sexual assault by numerous women throughout his public life, while HRC was simultaneously trying to discredit them. Furthermore, the vast majority of people know that the relationship between HRC and her husband is well- business like rather than based in any emotion familiar to most people.

2] The most peculiar thing about all the polls in the previous 3-4 weeks which show HRC having a significant lead over Trump is that they are all phone-based polls. The more eagle-eyed among you might have noticed that in tracking polls (which have been historically more accurate) show the race to be fairly even between the two- with a surprisingly high number of undecideds for this stage of the race. So why is their such a large gap between the results of tracking polls and telephone-based polls? And perhaps more curiously, why did this gap open up around 4 weeks ago? Well.. here is what I think is happening.

Tracking polls unlike telephone-based polls repeatedly survey the same large group of individuals. In other words, the choice of whom to survey is made before the intensive phase of the election has started. Consequently, properly done tracking polls tend to be more accurate and far harder to manipulate than other types of polling- especially telephone-based polls. In contrast to that, telephone-based polls will almost inevitably sample a constantly shifting set of individuals. While this shifting polling base is not problematic by itself- if the polling is done honestly and with appropriate statistical corrections, it can be easily manipulated to give a desired answer.

For example- You can easily inflate HRC’s poll numbers by oversampling white-middle aged women with a college degree living in certain zip codes. You could also over-sample registered democrats or frame the questions in a way that makes the person say that they will vote for HRC, even if they do not intend to do so at voting time. It is also possible to reject responses favorable to Trump by applying biased corrections or just plain faking the numbers. I have been in science long enough to know that a significant part of research published in “top” peer-reviewed scientific journals is not reproducible and likely the result of fraud, numerical manipulation or cherry-picking of data.

3] We already know, thanks to Wikileaks, that HRC campaign operatives spend a lot of time and money cultivating “journalists” in mainstream media. We also know that these “journalists” or presstitutes are more than willing to take orders from the HRC campaign and write false news stories, hit pieces on people the campaign wants to attack. Furthermore, these presstitutes have been shown to allow the HRC campaign to write articles and hit pieces that are then attributed to others and suppress information damaging to that campaign. It does not therefore take a leap of imagination or reasoning to believe that other organs of mainstream media, such as pre-election polling, are at least equally compromised.

We know for a fact that Bernie Sanders frequently received 10-15% more votes than he was expected to, based on such polls, in the democratic primaries. We also know that the HRC campaign was busy sabotaging his campaign through rigging of the rules of who could vote in primaries, stacking super-delegates against him, getting presstitutes to write hit pieces on him and otherwise denigrating him. Some of you might remember how AP called the democratic primary, based on a lead of one super-delegate, the evening before the last set of party primaries. It should therefore not be surprising if the entire “Trump is falling behind in polls” meme is fiction concocted by the HRC campaign in close co-operation with the mainstream and corporate-owned media.

The next post of this series will contain actual examples (with links, figures and charts) of what I am implying in the current one.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. Atlanta Man
    October 27, 2016 at 3:56 pm

    No matter what the polls say this is a close one.

  2. webej
    October 28, 2016 at 10:37 am

    Agree on all three points. However the most difficult thing is not to poll how people would vote if they go to vote, but to predict who will actually go out to vote. This changes with variables such as the weather, shifting age cohorts and demographics, and the dynamics of individual races: very hard to predict in its interaction with voter preference.
    > But there’s one thing you’re not discounting, and that is the integrity of the voting process. Putin has offered to send observers to ensure a fair vote — and this is not as crazy as it sounds. Even though the image cultivated is that US elections are a golden standard of open and free elections in one of the world’s oldest democracies, the truth is quite different. > There are many countries where they organize much better run elections with far fewer questions about the integrity of the process. This starts with the fact that everybody who is entitled to vote (citizen) is sent a voting voucher at their official address (the US does not have such registers). Everybody’s voucher is relinquished on voting, which requires identification (everybody has to have a piece of identification by law). The numbers on the vouchers and on the ID’s are later compared to original lists to alert to any use of bogus ID or counterfeit vouchers, and any double usage. All the voting leaves a trail which can be audited many time later on. Political parties are not part of the election’s organization.
    > In the US the problems start with (partial) registration. Compounded by problems with ID’s and the possibility of dead people voting and the same people voting multiple times in various jurisdictions. Then there are the problems with poor audit contols on voting machines (which for some reason always have kinks like voting for both candidates — how hard is it to design an idiot proof voting machine?) as well as poor audit control on locally organized precincts. Every election there are problems and challenges in the US. A lot of statistical research in the past decades has shown that variations (in turn-out and preference) in some districts located in crucial swing states defy explanation and credulance. In addition, there are sometimes gross variations with exit polls. In sum, the process itself is, and has been for many decades, susceptible to a degree of corruption and rigging which cannot even be properly estimated.
    > Then there is the actual turn out, which, when added to the incomplete voter registration, implies that somewhat less than 20% of the voting population ever casts a vote for the winning presidential candidate. This lack of enthusiasm is largely due to the lack of real democratic choices generated by the red/blue team duopoly.

  3. October 28, 2016 at 11:39 pm

    advipoops…

    your not looking at the bigger picture…

    trumpster has done irrepairable damage to the republican’t party. just look at how many noecons are gonna vote for crooked clinton…

    sanders coulda caused irrepairable damage to the demorats but he decided (or was coerced) into “playing nice.”

    Both parties have been destroyed.. the democrats just don’t know (or accept) it yet.

  4. Andrew
    October 30, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    hey, fellow John here, just found this blog, can you send me your email? I want to ask you a question..

  5. P Ray
    November 9, 2016 at 2:39 am

    Congratulations to Donald Trump for his victory! Will this cause feminist SJWs to commit suicide?

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