Some Initial Thoughts on the Likely Trajectory of a Trump Presidency: 2
In the previous post of this series, I wrote about the high probability that Trump’s presidency will be a disaster of such epic proportions that it would eclipse the still infamous second term of Bush43. I also wrote about the many ways by which establishment republicans will consciously and unconsciously grease the tracks for that particular train of doom. There is, of course, a slim (and increasingly unlikely) chance that he could go true populist and sorta succeed. But then again, reality is stranger than fiction.
Just to be clear, I am neither a supporter nor a detractor of Trump. I see myself as a detached observer of events who uses his largely dispassionate and probably misanthropic analysis of trends, events and probabilities to make educated (and largely correct) guesses about the future. FYI- I was able to predict that Trump would win the republican nomination and the presidency almost a year before both events occurred. Also, I held that conviction in the face of incessant and coordinated bullshitting by the mainstream media about how Trump was going to lose the presidential election.
The current post is about establishment “liberals” (henceforth referred to as LIEbrals) will try to sabotage his presidency. A quick note for readers- LIEbrals should not be confused with Progressives. The former are neo-liberal corporatist shills credentialed from some “famous” university who can be best described as ‘republican-lite’. The later, in contrast, espouse the ideas and values that the democratic party, in the past, stood for- allegedly. It is no secret that the unprecedented defeat of HRC by Trump has exposed the impotency and emptiness of LIEbrals and their real belief system (which is actually neither liberal nor progressive).
But this does not mean that the LIEbral establishment will quietly accept a Trump victory and presidency. I predict that they will go all out and try to derail it by any and all means available, while simultaneously obstructing progressive attempts to do the same. It is worth pointing out that a Trump victory in the presidential election does not change the fact that large parts of the establishment (from financial institutions, corporations, mass media and universities etc) are still firmly in the hands of establishment LIEbrals and will remain so in the near future.
So how will their “resistance” to Trump play out? Here are my thoughts..
1] We are already seeing LIEbrals spread the meme that Trump lost the popular vote- which while technically true, has little consequence for who will assume the presidency on January 20, 2017. However, as far as LIEbrals are concerned, his inability to win the popular vote (as well as electoral college) makes Trump less than legitimate. You might have already heard about all those stories and insinuations about the election being hacked in certain states- and while that is not outside realm of possibility, it is far more likely that HRC lost because she was a highly unpopular candidate selling a product (status quo) that few wanted to buy- even among those who voted for her.
I predict that attempts to delegitimize Trump by such tactics will be largely unsuccessful outside of circles dominated by rabidly pro-establishment democrats. Perhaps more importantly, these tactics will have little to no effect on Trump assuming presidency and governing in his chosen manner. Also, all those “spontaneous” street demonstrations protesting his election will have little to no effect on his real-life legitimacy or power. Having said that, I expect that the LIEbral establishment will continue to encourage and support such “popular” protests till they run out of enthusiastic volunteers.
2] I predict the largely discredited main-stream media (or at least some parts of it) will continue on a stridently anti-Trump streak- kinda like the 2nd term of Bush43. While these types of sustained actions take more effort and money, they are likely to be more effective than protesting his legitimacy- simply because a Trump presidency will likely provide them with tons of usable material. This might also synergize nicely with establishment republicans filling important posts in Trump administration and attempting to implement their worst and most ill-thought out policies.
Many of Trump’s policies and actions on issues such as funding for sciences and education plus his administration’s likely crackdown on black people and people of mexican descent will provide a stream of endless and genuine material to de-legitimize his presidency. Also, these attacks are far more likely to stick than those made by MSM on his character and temperament. Perhaps more interestingly, the main-stream media could raise it to a level where they will encourage aggrieved minorities to take things in their own hands- which would create an accelerating downward spiral.
3] It is no secret that the dislike for Trump among establishment republicans is as high as that among establishment democrats. I would, therefore, not be surprised to see some future cooperation between these two alleged adversaries on attempts to sabotage a Trump presidency. Such ersatz cooperation might take many forms, including directly undermining his main campaign promises- especially those about restricting “free” trade and all types of immigration. Don’t be surprised if establishment republicans suddenly and selectively talk about “bi-partisan” cooperation and other assorted bullshit.
I also predict that Trump, once in office, will find himself first gradually and then publicly disowned by members of his party- just like they did during his campaign for republican nomination and the presidency. I also predict that this will synergize with my previous point about mass-media going on a more sustained anti-Trump campaign after he assumes office and starts making bad or disastrous decisions. It is also likely that many people employed in the Trump administration have far stronger loyalties to the republican establishment than they will admit- at least right now. Expect them to go along with the LIEbrals if it suits their long-term goals.
4] While some of Trump’s campaign promises, such as those related to blocking new “free trade” agreements and stopping or reversing outsourcing, are broadly popular- some such as deporting millions of mexicans and turning inner cities in open-air prisons are not. While it is possible that Trump himself does not really want to implement his less popular campaign promises, it is very likely that some of his retarded CONservative supporters might make him do so. This is especially likely because some of the people he is hiring in his administration are, for the lack of better words, living in a dream world where the american government has ultimate power without consequences- either unintentionally or intentionally.
The consequences of widespread increase in profiling and police-initiated murder of black people, especially in an age of ubiquitous social media, could have consequences far beyond what they realize. Let me put it this way.. any serious crackdown on black people in 2016 (with vocal support by Trump) might end up in a situation where people working in profession and their families get targeted for random de-centralized acts of lethal violence- which would result in a further intensification of police crackdown leading to a further increase in such retaliation by members of the affected community. Attempts at mas deportation of undocumented mexican workers in USA might also blow up in a similar fashion, since there are more documented citizens of mexican descent than there are of the other variety.
I should also mention that any attempt to break, or even renegotiate, the Iran agreement will be unsuccessful because the entire world now knows that USA lacks the ability to win a war against a determined adversary. Also the world, and economy, of 2016 is far less USA-centric than most people in USA realize. However both the previous facts are common knowledge outside USA. Similarly any attempt to roll back progress on normalizing relations with Cuba or reassert aggression towards Russia will only end up making the rest of the world reduce its interactions with USA. It is also no secret that the establishment LIEbrals will make sure everybody hears about such failures by the Trump administration- even if they are based on the prescriptions of those same establishment LIEbrals and CONservatives.
In an upcoming part of this series, I will write about how (and why) trying to address, let alone fulfill, some of his more popular campaign promises is likely to backfire in a spectacular fashion.
What do you think? Comments?