Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 1

On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 1

One of the funny, if somewhat ironic, effects of persistent attempts by establishment democrats (and their media underlings) to delegitimize Trump’s victory in 2016 election by connecting him to some cartoon-ish “russian conspiracy” is that it has not increased their own popularity among the general population. It has, if anything, made them less popular than Trump- which is a most impressive feat. Curiously, the inability of establishment democrats to improve their approval ratings has occurred in spite of Trump doing his best to screw over the very people who voted for him by making a load of generally unpopular decisions on issues such as healthcare.

More than a few commentators on twitter have been baffled by the desire of establishment democrats to flog the dead horse of “russian conspiracy” while simultaneously ignoring issues which animate average people such as healthcare, jobs, education and other concerns based in real life. In my opinion, it comes down to the sad fact that they (and other “traditional” parties in the west) have become the willing and enthusiastic tools of multinational neoliberalism. In other words, supposedly “traditional” political parties have become intellectually bankrupt cults which lack the ability to perceive the world around them thorough anything other than a neoliberal filter.

But what about the question posed in the title of this post? Will Trump complete, or be able to complete, his four-year term as the president? Or will he be impeached before his term is over? Or will something, which will render both those options moot, occur before his term is over?

As many of you know, impeccably credentialed, coiffed and dressed presstitutes employed by main-stream media outlets (and their equivalents in the entertainment sector) have been busy trying to grab onto any piece of evidence and hearsay, ok.. mostly hearsay and fabrication, that Trump is a traitor who did something “bad” which will lead to his impeachment. As you know, I am no defender of Trump and expect his presidential term to be one giant shitshow. Having said that, I think it is incorrect to say that Trump’s behavior and actions are especially unusual for somebody who has been elected as president.

USA has had more than a few presidents who had behaved worse and done far more fucked up shit. If you don’t believe me, read a bit about people like Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Richard Milhous Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and yes.. even Barack Obama. Clearly.. being a child-fucker, genocidal racist, paranoid asshole, demented moron, corrupt piece of shit and obfuscating neoliberal is no barrier to getting elected and re-elected as president. Only a true believer in the dying cult of american exceptionalism would believe in the bullshit story that Trump is somehow uniquely damaging to the dignity of the “office”.

As things stand today, there is insufficient evidence that Trump did something illegal enough to make him resign or impeach him in a manner that looks impartial. Does that mean that Trump has not done anything illegal or made poor and questionable decisions? No.. it does not. For all we know he could be getting a blowjob from by his adult daughter under the table while eating well-done steak seasoned with tomato ketchup and accepting legal contributions from the Saudi crown prince. But you see.. none of those highly questionable decisions are sufficient to impeach him in an open trial.

If there was anything sufficient to impeach him in an open trial, we would have heard it on every mainstream media outlet by now.

So, what about the other establishment democrat plan- making him resign by harping on the alleged “russia conspiracy”? Well.. we kinda already know how that will turn out. As many of you might have noticed, most people in USA have tuned out of that farce. And why wouldn’t they? Every day brings yet more unsubstantiated claims about some connection between Trump and “Putin” that will definitely sink the former’s presidency and.. it all falls apart after a few days, or sometimes, even after a few hours. Meanwhile Trump is still president and playing golf on every single weekend.

I would go so far as to say that harping on the “russia conspiracy” now makes establishment democrats look like bungling idiots or bitter losers- depending on your viewpoint. There is therefore a better than 85% probability (my educated guess) that Trump will complete his term as a president. But what about the other 15%? What else could happen?

Here is where it gets a bit dark, but not in an unexpected manner. As many of you also know, some hyper-partisan democratic voters have bought into the narrative that Trump is somehow a traitor who is sullying the office of presidency. Given the secondary effects of many of Trump’s ill-advised policies and decisions, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that there might more than a few hyper-partisan democrats who will attempt to remove Trump from the presidency. We have already seen a teaser trailer of that particular movie, in the form of the recent shooting of Steve Scalise.

I would not be surprised if in a country of over 300 million people, more than a handful come to the conclusion that Trump has to be removed from office by any means possible. And one such attempt might actually succeed. Even more problematically, a successful attempt will result in lots of covert and not-so-covert celebration by establishment democrats and their hyper-partisan supporters. The point I am trying to make is that there is no good way out of this shitshow. Indeed, letting Trump complete his term might be the least worst option- especially for democrats. Will write more in a future part of this series depending on feedback from commentators.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. P Ray
    July 11, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    At this point it looks like Trump is going to be made a convenient scapegoat about the failure of welfare programs put in place before he was elected.

    A possible scenario is this:
    Up until the next election I am very sure people in need will be subjected to all sorts of diversionary tactics to have assistance held back … with the excuse “blame Trump”.
    Then those people, faced with an understanding that help will NOT be coming AT ALL, may decide violence is the only option.
    The result? “Violent Trump supporters kill innocent welfare workers”.

    Strategic deprivation and suppressing the people at the bottom, to target the pent-up rage at somebody else, is a very useful tactic.

  2. Ed
    July 13, 2017 at 9:24 am

    There are two levels to this.

    At the shallow level, the Russia stuff is just the Donk version of birthirism.

    At a deeper level, the US President has much less constitutional power than people think. Two thirds of each House of Congress can run the federal government pretty much anyway they want, and also remove a President. Normally this doesn’t come into play because of partisanship, and because up to now Presidents have tended to operate within the consensus within DC. Plus the voters may not like impeaching and removing a President unless prepared by the media for this for years beforehand.

    But it does mean that the DC establishment, of both the GOP and the Donk sub-sets, have someone like Trump on probation. With the Donk part of the establishment on board, the GOP leadership can pull the trigger and remove Trump at any time. I’m not sure why they didn’t just keep Trump away from the White House in the first place, but the situation is that make a big deal of any scandal and he has to leave, and he knows this. So he has been doing everything the GOP establishment want.

    At a deeper level, the “scandals” are there to remind Trump himself of this, and to prepare the public if he does have to be removed mid-term down the road.

    Yes, it is the establishment democrat version of birtherism. Having said that congress and senate have far less real power than they seem to think. So it is going to be an interesting next few years.

  3. July 13, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    what’ya think of this?

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/republican-donor-kills-himself-talking-021051687.html

    No more suspicious than the murder of Seth Rich, if you catch my drift.

  4. Thegenius
    July 14, 2017 at 3:56 am

    What will determine the trump presidency is how he handles the next recession/financial crisis

    • Yuppies R gay
      July 14, 2017 at 3:27 pm

      … And no major scandals.

  5. Thegenius
    July 14, 2017 at 4:02 am

    “No more suspicious than the murder of Seth Rich, if you catch my drift.”

    Weird that people working against The Clintons keep ending up dead

  6. Yuppies R gay
    July 14, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    Just a fast point… The Dems backed off the impeachment rhetoric several months ago. It didn’t poll well. The unhinged left could care less about impeachment. They want blood. So yes, I could see assassination as the highest probability event leading to no more Trump.

  7. Yusef
    July 15, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    I can’t claim to understand the dynamics of this situation: I’m still finding it difficult to say the words “president trump.” However if anyone can explain why his presidency can’t be considered highly vulnerable to termination, I’d like to hear it.

    The bumbling and ineffectiveness of the democrats offers Trump some security, but what if for the sake of getting rid of him republicans and democrats worked together? It isn’t only the democrats who have an interest in removing him. Trump is not the “annointed” of the republicans.

    I don’t believe the republican power structure can be satisfied with a Trump catering to their every need. I don’t really believe Trump will be satisfied with that either. He may be in some position to depose the republican power structure– or at least to think he can. There’s got to be a struggle going on we aren’t privy to presently.

    An impeachment isn’t all that similar to a jury trial or a criminal proceeding. Charges can be cooked up and if enough votes are there the guilt established can be “good enough for government work.” It’s about the votes, not the justice or morality. If the majority of Congress wants him gone, he’s gone. I don’t think there would be much public resistance or even reaction. Everyone knows American politics–as democracy or republic– is a farce.

  8. hoipolloi
    July 16, 2017 at 9:46 am

    Ever since Trump got elected the word impeachment is thrown around freely. I can see frequent change of executive happening in a parliamentary democracy via no confidence motion. A presidential form of government is not meant for that except as a last resort during extreme political instability. Trump administration is providing lot of circus for the media. As P. Ray the poster points out elsewhere, that is part of what makes a government stable.

  9. July 16, 2017 at 2:18 pm

    on another note, a mediocre metalcore band made a song that is “triggering” the alt reich…

    The funniest part, read the comments it reads almost exactly like butthurt feminists when Rihanna had that video awhile back where she “kidnapped” her accountant’s wife (and “murdered” him.)

  10. July 16, 2017 at 3:41 pm
    • Yusef
      July 16, 2017 at 8:34 pm

      I do check out your links, SWAB. The situations are interesting, but what’s striking is the poor analysis of the facts. The guy who wrote that article may be a good journalist and a bad economist, but his being a bad economist led him to be a bad journalist in this case because he didn’t go deep enough on the facts he’s reporting. (His use of anecdotal quotes was also dismaying, whatever his intention.) The “long business cycle” and “shallow recessions”– even if you could believe those described economic conditions of the last few decades– don’t explain low wages and small raises. What he needs to look at is the composition of the work force. There are a lot of people working as “associates” as if they were “students” as just one example. These sorts of filler laborers add supply and thus drive demand down. They are working more cheaply, too. Also– companies posting jobs is not really the same as companies actually having unfilled positions. The strategy seems to be to continuously post jobs whether there are openings or not. This could be because the cost of posting openings has got to be as low as it has ever been due to the internet and so on. It could even be companies use this as free PR and advertising. They probably don’t blab about it if so….A journalist would have to dig. .

  11. Libertarians are subhumans
    July 16, 2017 at 8:07 pm

    Friend can you make a post giving us your thoughts about the subject of the male pill?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/sex/the-male-pill-is-coming—and-its-going-to-change-everything/

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/indonesia-closing-in-on-release-of-worlds-first-male-pill/news-story/1d67d7ba1cac88afb88356c2063dd7d6

    Since you work in the pharma industry i’m sure you’ll be able to write a very insightful post on this topic.

  1. July 16, 2017 at 10:18 pm

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