Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 2

On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 2

In the previous post of this series, I wrote about how overt attempts by the establishment and its MSM stooges to invalidate Trump’s victory in the 2016 election by connecting him to a largely made-up “russian conspiracy” are not gaining support among the general population. Now.. this does not imply that Trump is becoming more popular. In fact, he probably has the worst levels of public support for a president in living memory. However, his low approval ratings are due to his general incompetence in combination with numerous poor policy and personnel choices, rather than most people seeing seeing him as a traitor or usurper.

When I wrote the previous, and first, post in this series we still had not heard much about the latest development in this darkly funny shit-show. As almost every single one of you must have heard many times by now, one of his son (Donald Trump Jr.) had a metting with a mediocre but semi-connected Russian lawyer and a few other people who were supposed to provide some ‘dirt’ on HRC related to some of the Clinton families dealings with a few shady rich Russians. You might have also heard that the meeting in question, which occurred in mid-summer 2016, was attended by an odd cast of characters. Anyway.. as far we know, no money changed hands and very little of what was discussed concerned HRC.

Of course, the MSM is having a field day with this most recent “scandal”. In fact, they have gone so far as to greatly exaggerate the positions, abilities and power of the Russians who attended that meeting. For example- the MSM is portraying Natalia Veselnitskaya (the Russian layer) as some sinister genius when it well-known that she was, at best, a mediocre lawyer who happened to marry a semi-powerful prosecutor in her home country. Rinat Akhmetshin (lobbyist) is being portrayed as a “soviet” counter-intelligence sleeper operative while, in reality, he was just another semi-ambitious guy who joined the soviet army in late-1980s to get out of Kazakhstan and then moved to USA after the collapse of USSR in 1991.

My point is, the people attending that meeting were not especially smart or competent. I would go even further and say that this meeting and its cast of attendees had more in common with a sub-plot in “Arrested Development” than anything which could pass for half-competent espionage and skulduggery.

Nonetheless, establishment democrats are busy promoting this alleged scandal as the “smoking gun” which will finally allow them to impeach Trump and make him resign or remove him from office. Of course, doing so would result in an outwardly normal looking religious nutcase, also known as Mike Pence, becoming the President. Then again, establishment democrats have not displayed much ability to think strategically. I mean.. they have lost almost 1,00 state legislature seats and dozens of governor races in the previous 8 years, in addition to losing the house and senate at the national level. Their only major “success” has been stopping Bernie Sanders from winning the party nomination in 2016- though that one turned out to be a really bad idea.

Having said that, let us consider the short (weeks) and medium (months) term consequences of the establishment democrat obsession with somehow connecting Trump to Putin and Russia. Firstly, they seem to forget that the american electorate has heard this same basic fairy tale for almost a year now. Guess what.. Trump won the election even after democrats started pushing this story and his approval numbers, while low, are still a bit between than their own. Note to self- write a post on how democrats were able to achieve lower approval ratings than a reality TV star who has reneged on almost all of his electoral promises.

Secondly, their obsession with this made-up scandal has prevented them from focusing on his many real failures and fuckups. You would think that democrats would focus on Trump’s failures on issues such as preventing outsourcing or maintaining funding levels for popular government programs like social security, medicare and medicaid. But no.. democarts are busy pushing “Trump-Putin”, “Trump-Russia” and “Russia Hacked Our Sacred Elections” 24/7- regardless of the lack of solid evidence to support such connections and conclusions. Establishment democrat obsession with Trump-Putin-Russia (and simultaneous neglect of issues which most voters care about) is eroding their credibility with the broader electorate at an alarming rate.

Thirdly, making the MSM incessantly push this made-up scandal is corroding whatever residual credibility those outlets used to have- even six months ago. Think about it.. average people now know that CNN and MSNBC will spend multiple hours each day talking about the newest chapter of this obviously made up scandal while simultaneously ignoring their real and very serious concerns. They know that supposedly prestigious newspapers like the NYT and WP (and pretty much every other MSM paper) will almost certainly write a dozen pieces about this obviously made-up scandal every single day. Do you think they will care if and when they publish a genuine negative story about Trump?

Will write more about the general issue of credibility loss by establishment due to their numerous unsuccessful attempts at unseating Trump in a future post of this series.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. Libertarians are subhumans
    July 17, 2017 at 12:40 am

    Dear Advocatus,can you make a post giving us your thoughts about the subject of the male pill?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/sex/the-male-pill-is-coming—and-its-going-to-change-everything/

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/indonesia-closing-in-on-release-of-worlds-first-male-pill/news-story/1d67d7ba1cac88afb88356c2063dd7d6

    Since you work in the pharma industry i’m sure you’ll be able to write a very insightful post on this topic.

  2. Libertarians are subhumans
    July 17, 2017 at 12:45 am

    Friend can you make a post giving us your thoughts about the subject of the male pill?
    Since you work in the pharma industry i’m sure you’ll be able to write a very insightful post on this topic.

    Sure, will look into those news posts.

  3. Libertarians are subhumans
    July 17, 2017 at 12:47 am

    Ops,it seems that for whatever reason when i tried to post here the messages weren’t being shown so i’ve tried posting them multiple times to no avail and then they all apeared.
    Ops,my bad,please delete the redundant ones.

  4. Ed
    July 18, 2017 at 9:24 am

    I commented on the other blog post in the series, but will make essentially the same case here. Trump will be removed from office, with the impeachment process the most likely route, if and when he is no longer useful to the GoP establishment. They will get the cooperation of the Democrats and media and come up with some sort of justification. But if they don’t have to do this, they won’t bother and they don’t want the problem of pissing off their own supporters.

    The Democrats are doing this to elicit more cash from their donors and are pretty much irrelevant.

    One minor correction. Trump’s approval rating is low compared to other Presidents during their first year (six months) in office. Presidents have had lower approval ratings later in their administrations. And it turns out the approval rating this month in doesn’t correlate with the vote percentage they get when they run for re-election, and Trump probably won’t run for re-election anyway because of his age.

  5. Yusef
    July 19, 2017 at 1:16 pm

    “Thirdly, making the MSM incessantly push this made-up scandal is corroding whatever residual credibility those outlets used to have- even six months ago. Think about it.. average people now know that CNN and MSNBC will spend multiple hours each day talking about the newest chapter of this obviously made up scandal while simultaneously ignoring their real and very serious concerns.”

    There was zero residual credibility six months ago, and much longer ago than that, even.

    The political establishment and the MSM have been acting this way for decades.,most memorably for me with the Clinton Monica Lewinsky pseudo-scandal, which did, by the way, end with Clinton’s impeachment. During the years that scandal played incessantly on front pages, on TV, on radio, no public opinion poll ever showed the majority of Americans ever believed what Clinton may have done was significant enough to impair his ability to be President or require his removal from office. The Republicans never seemed to notice until the midterms of 1998 when Republicans actually lost a few Congressional seats.

    Popular feedback mechanisms into public policy have been broken for a long, long time. Everyone knows it. The parties know it. Doesn’t that make the question whether the use of the “Russian Hack” serve as a diverting mechanism beneficial for both parties? Trump would like it because emphasis and attention isn’t on his actual shitty job. Democrats would like it because it does give the appearance they are attacking Trump without actually doing so? There is a question why the Democrats focused on the Russian link during the campaign when there were so many more likely Trump weaknesses to focus on, or why they didn’t shift emphasis when it failed to gain traction.

    After all, there’s really very little difference between elected R’s and D’s. The real difference is between the electorate and the elected. (Notice we never hear about “tea party”
    Republicans any more, after quite a few actually got elected and are in there, right now, as part of all this crap. New crap same as the old crap.) Obama was Bush, and Obamacare and McCain care would have been the same…Obamacare was modeled on what could with justification have been called Romney care. It’s a big circus and the politicians aren’t the ring masters anyway. They’re the monkeys and we’re meant to laugh and cry.

    “Trump will be removed from office, with the impeachment process the most likely route, if and when he is no longer useful to the GoP establishment.” – Ed. Exactly, except I would drop GOP and just say the establishment. They could easily use the Russian thing as the pretext, too. It wouldn’t matter much what pretext. It wouldn’t matter if the public hadn’t been persuaded it was serious or credible.

  6. July 20, 2017 at 1:11 pm

    oopsie…

    http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/Carrier-Moves-Jobs-To-Mexico-Despite-Trump-s-Big-Talk-1002191635

    Was that really so surprising? Of course, he was just kidding when he said he would stop outsourcing.

    • A.B. Prosper
      July 25, 2017 at 11:39 am

      Not a remote surprise to me. Even if Trump wanted to and that’s a dubious prospect its not like he could anything about it.

      Until economic liberalism is replaced with economic nationalism or things just go south or fall apart outsourcing will go on.

      In any case the US was founded as a tax dodge and by people of whom actually paying a work wage was anathema .

      The slavery mentality has been part of the US since its founding , now throw in the 3rd world low trust mentality and you have a rocket train to disaster

      Its bad enough a fair amount of the the tech elite are noticing it and pushing for a basic income for everyone . This won’t work at all for a great many reasons first among them the ruling class could be staring at a guillotine blade and would still double down, As Upton Sinclair put “You can’t teach a man something his job requires him not to know”

  7. Thegenius
    July 29, 2017 at 7:29 am

    Silicon Valley is in the final stage of tech bubble 2.0 and oil is beginning an enduring bull market, this presages an extreme rightward shift in US politics

    • P Ray
      July 29, 2017 at 10:08 pm

      The majority of the people making money in the Silicon Valley tech bubble were managers, certainly not software developers … some years back during the Apple Maps debacle, the position of senior Maps developer was advertised in the Valley, at USD85,000/year – equivalent to ~7100 per month.

      Even famed MGTOW engineer Greenlander(said to be in Russia now) failed to give me specifics of other jobs in the same field(technology), that he said “offered more money”. Also remember a lot of people are just lying on social media.

      • P Ray
        July 29, 2017 at 10:19 pm

        Whoops, no wonder he suddenly became incompetent at solving problems, he became a manager:
        I cleaned up my act. I was just a cubicle nerd in Silicon Valley. (Although I must have had something going for me: I became a manager.) I hired a personal trainer and started to hit the gym like a wild animal. My abs came out: I hadn’t seem them since high school. I changed my diet. (Hint: The Paleo/Atkins diet works.) I started a relationship with a tailor and ordered a lot of made-to-measure clothing. I subscribed to GQ.

        This is a reason some people in technical position “race for the manager job”: because they can’t do the technical work; the cartels in their industries won’t pay more; they admit that the arseholes are getting ahead so they decide to join them (of course with the caveat, “I’m only doing this to take care of the woman I’m interested in”) …

  8. Someone
    August 4, 2017 at 4:08 am

    As an American and Trump voter, I to tire of this Russian nonsense from the media. Not that after the election, it was the popular vote that mattered. So the Russians hacked the election but Hildecunt won the popular vote? How can that be?

    I’m totally happy with Trump, but I could not stand that shrieking harpie and it gave me joy to see the leftist go into fits of rage over his win. The Democratic Party still does not get it; I don’t want more illegal or legal immigration and a don’t give a damn about .01% of the sexually deviant population. The GOPe is also an enemy of all Americans as well. The traitor McCain cast the deciding vote on repealing Obummacare which has caused a hell of a lot of problems for people and drained billions from an already weak economy.

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