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North Korea Launching ICBMs at USA is Far More Likely than Believed

Continuing on from my previous, and subsequently shown to be correct, analysis of North Korea’s ICBM and Nuke programs- let me pose a question that many of you either do not want to think about or believe to be impossible.

Would North Korean launch nuclear weapon tipped ICBMs at large metropolitan areas in USA?

Notice that I used the word “Would” rather than “Could” since we already know that they can launch missiles carrying such payloads at metropolitan area sized targets in continental USA aka the ‘lower 48’. In other words, we have already established that they have the capacity to launch missiles which can drop a warhead of somewhere between 1-1.5 tons on large city sized targets in USA.

Also, as some of you might remember from a few months ago, they can build nuclear weapons with a yield of somewhere between 20-50 kt. While their device is more likely to be a boosted fission bomb rather than a “true” thermonuclear bomb– that difference is largely irrelevant when used against largely civilian targets. I mean.. do you really think a device with a 50 kt yield will be any less disruptive and shocking in its effects on a metropolitan area than one with a 200 kt yield?

And this brings me to the main question posed in this post- how likely are they to use such weapons against USA given the almost inevitable consequences of using them in that manner. But first, let us disabuse ourselves of the stupid belief that the North Korean regime is irrational or incompetent. That regime, is if anything, supremely rational and very aware of its own limitations and abilities.

Their decision to aggressively develop ICBMs and nuclear weapons within the previous decade is very rational since USA is only capable of overthrowing regimes which lack the capability to hit back with nuclear weapons. Deposing Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and all those “color” revolutions were possible only because those leaders did not possess the means to deliver a nuclear weapon onto a major american city.

But how does any of this make North Korea successfully launching nuclear tipped ICBMS at metropolitan ares in USA more likely than most people would want to believe? Aren’t all those rational people in the North Korean regime afraid of the almost inevitable nuclear retaliation by USA? Shouldn’t that by itself make such an event almost impossible?

Well.. in a rational world, this assumption would be correct and the probability that North Korea would launch ICBMs against USA would be basically zero. However we do not live in a rational world and the other party to this conflict, namely the USA, has shown a general inability to make rational and consistent decisions in the sphere of international relations for some time now.

The general inability of USA to make rational and consistent decisions on international, and increasingly national, matters is due to a numbers of interacting factors. Firstly, various factions of the ruling classes no longer share common goals with each other and there is a deficiency of centralized authority. It is therefore very easy to find instances of two, or more factions, working at cross purposes- something that was rather uncommon even two decades ago.

Secondly, USA is a declining superpower in a world which can no longer support superpowers. There was a time in the 1950s, part of the 1960s and maybe part of the 1990s when the USA came close to dominating the world- but that time is over and the world has become too multipolar for us to go back to such a time. However a lot of the ruling class factions have either not gotten that message or seem to be ignoring it.

Thirdly, a majority of the ruling class (all factions) come from what I call an intellectually and culturally incestuous background. In other words, most people in each faction lived in the same cities, went to same schools and universities and for the lack of a better word- do not venture outside their little bubbles. They talk the same, eat the same, drink the same, fuck the same and most problematically- think the same. Unfortunately, their bubbles have little, to no, connection with reality.

And this brings me to the subject of bad strategic and military decisions- or more precisely, why “credentialed” leaders tend to make the worst decisions and strategic mistakes. While there are many individual reasons for this phenomena, the overarching “meta” explanation is as follows: Decision making by members of an incestuous elite is largely driven by the need to impress and dominate their peers while trying to maintain the status quo, rather than solve the problem at hand.

As far as the topic of this post is concerned, that translates into doing more of the same in seemingly new and fashionable ways. So, the establishment in USA is going to try newer sanctions, more bluster about preemptive military strikes, more “successful” tests of ineffective anti-ballistic missiles. In other words, they will keep on doing all the things that have never worked. They will however never attempt something as trivial as unconditional talks with that regime to address its real concerns.

But how does any of this significantly increase the chances of North Korea launching nukes at american cities?

Well.. it comes down to who developed these weapons and for what end. See, the north korean regime developed them to ensure its own survival and continuance. These weapons are useful to the regime if their possession keeps USA away. However they also know that they have far fewer weapons than USA and if push comes to shove, using them immediately to inflict retaliatory damage is far more preferable to waiting for USA to definitively hit them- perhaps with nukes.

It is pretty easy to see how the proverbial ‘fog of war’ and mutual provocations increase to a level where the side with fewer nukes might be tempted to use them first. I mean.. if you are going down anyway why not take your opponent with you? As I pointed out before, the nukes and ICBMs are meant to ensure survival of North Korean regime- so it perfectly logical to use them if they think they have no realistic way out.

While this might seem as fairly straight forward logic to even the casual external observer, the vast majority of “credentialed” elite and decision makers in USA seem to believe that something like what I just described above is impossible. They are simply unwilling to even consider the very real possibility that North Korean nukes could hit a few major american cities resulting in deaths of millions. Instead they would rather retreat to their bubbles where they are exceptional, racially superior and omnipotent and everyone around them believes in the same shit.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. John
    August 6, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    Excerpt:

    “Notice that I used the word “Would” rather than “Could” since we already know that they can launch missiles carrying such payloads at metropolitan area sized targets in continental USA aka the ‘lower 48’.”

    In truth, how do “we” know they can do such a thing? Because the U.S. Government said so?

    Hmmmm. Really. And no one or no set of corporations in “The Homeland” stand to gain from such a pronouncement, eh?

    The Russians also know all about missile telemetry and their estimate of the latest North Korean launch is that at best, the projectile fits into the “medium range” category, not “intercontinental.” I will cede that in terms ludicrous one can argue that firing a missile across the Bering straits from Russia to Alaska all of a sudden make a V-1 an I.C.B.M. if crossing from one continent to the other is the benchmark, but it isn’t. I’m leaning toward the Russian estimation of the vehicles capabilites.

    Quite seriously, even if the Russians are wrong (likely not), correctly aiming an I.C.B.M. is also a problem that no one is in any way certain that N.K. has that technology mastered either. Hitting central Nevada while aiming for Denver or blowing up whales near Guam while aiming for Honolulu is not going to impress but would elicit the same response – total annihilation of the North.

  2. Rum
    August 7, 2017 at 12:15 am

    I will get in trouble if it gets out that I know this, but here it goes: NK is not ever going to attack the USA. The pay-off ratio would be all wrong. Very little about what would happen afterwards would be in their best interests. America is huge and a long way off and everything is widely dispersed. NK, otoh, is only a few kilotons across.

    haha.. but getting back to reality, some of most disastrous wars in history began unintentionally- in that neither party involved appreciated how far it would go and how bad things would get.

    If they were to ever actually use their prized-emergent weipoans technology, it will be aimed at India.
    See, attacking the USA would accomplish little and bring utter ruin in return.
    India, on the other hand, is closer in regards to range and would be more defenseless, especially in a surprise attack. And, given the population densities, it is a better target for getting the high numbers of innocent dead they crave — for the relieve of the “short, small asian-syndrome” that torments them all..

  3. P Ray
    August 7, 2017 at 6:14 am

    North Korea’s nuclear foray would answer a lot of strategic questions China and Russia have.

    So the immediate reaction to any attack would be a mass propaganda exercise,
    of course the relatives of the victims of an attack in the US by North Korea, would be lied to to avoid causing panic.

    Nowadays the fake it till you make it culture is stronk (bet many people don’t know the embargo of Japan by the US … contributed towards that idea that Pearl Harbour, with its ships capable of doing a blockade … was a worthy target).

    Though propaganda might have its limitations after a few million in the most desirable cities in USA are dead, not to mention prime real estate becoming inhabitable for years.

  4. August 7, 2017 at 8:25 am

    I think you are right to point out that the USA’s diplomatic & military efforts are coming out of a inner ideological bubble. I think part of that bubble is clinging the the NPT framework, & trying to push NK back into that “box” of constraint. If events between NK & USA are such that USA accedes to NK’s nukes, the NPT will be dead, and I think you will certainly see rapid proliferation in Asia & the Middle East. I think the USA/CIA/NSA & political class are fighting this outcome as much more than their personal dislike & despising of the NK’s authoritarian regime.

    NK does not seem rational to me. Their posture seems reactionary, provocative & displays the insecurity of their ruling class, who also live in an extreme bubble. ( in my opinion, much more so than the “bubble” that USA counterpoints operate in) That is a dangerous combination to try and deal with for anyone. ( even China is exhasperated by them ). NK is functionally governed by a political cult that has questionable support from the vast bulk of the population. The NK’s level of irrationality, as seen by the USA, is what is needed to keep power by that clique. Parsing out the meaning of it all, bluff or dangerous nuclear maniacs with ICBM’s? This is a shitty problem that the USA will have to weigh for good & bad. Walking away and letting the NPT get used as asswipe in Asia & the middle east is the bigger game that that will unfold, & the USA/Superpower state will not survive as an entity that can affect that longer game.

    If NK was rational & forward thinking, they would have played their position like Iran did. Iran kept some limits on their propaganda against the US & Israel, and played their options with nuke technology as an instrument of securing the existence of & non-interference with, the Islamic regime. They got a fantastic deal from Obama that delivered just that, plus a shitload of cash. They also fundamentally are a much more secure & legitimate government than NK’s, and so can afford this. They can now enjoy pretty much telling the USA, Israel, & Arab enemies to fuck themselves while they do what they want. ( like aiding NK’s nuke program, which they are, to hasten the demise of the USA, which increases their strength in the ME.)

  5. Fred is in bed
    August 7, 2017 at 5:33 pm

    OT… What are your thoughts about the google memo? What are your thoughts about the sjw reaction? googles’ board is going to fire the employee who wrote it.

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/08/dissent-at-google.html?m=1

    • P Ray
      August 8, 2017 at 6:48 am

      James Damore has been fired from “don’t be evil” Google.

      You know, the same company where the founder Sergey Brin can have an affair with Amanda Rosenberg (Mass Communication graduate … and somehow landed a job in Google after dating Hugo Barra … gaining a higher position after coming up with the fighting words of ladettes “Ok, Glass!”) … that talks about meritocracy and transparency.

      However:
      Julian Assange 🔹‏ @JulianAssange 1h1 hour ago
      More
      Google: Any ideas on how we can decrease wages?
      Engineer: The job is lonely & stressful. Maybe women don’t like it
      Google: You’re fired

      Julian Assange 🔹 Retweeted
      Julian Assange 🔹‏ @JulianAssange 6h6 hours ago
      More
      1/ Censorship is for losers. @WikiLeaks is offering a job to fired Google engineer James Damore.

      • Thegenius
        August 8, 2017 at 10:50 am

        The truth is google only hire women so that the nerds working there can get laid.

  6. webej
    August 8, 2017 at 3:16 pm

    The whole thing is solely about regime change. If the US had met with the provisional government upon landing in S Korea in Sept 1945, history would have played out differently. Instead, they refused and met with the occupying Japanese authorities and created their own regime. For years they meddled in politics and caused riots and unrest that needed to be quashed. The Soviets were suckers, they could have taken over the whole peninsula but kept their word and stopped at the 38th parallel, waiting for the Americans to land 3 weeks later. Big mistake.
    N Korea has always insisted on direct negotiations with the US. If the US would recognize N Korea and the regime and give them international guarantees, the situation would evolve. Something like Vietnam would have emerged. Instead, the US has been insisting on reunification and threatening the regime in the North, after failing to win a war which destroyed the country and killed 4 million.
    The whole thing isn’t about nuclear weapons or the “brutal” regime [which is paranoid/fearful of US actions], but has been about politics and regime change from start to finish. The primary danger is that the US sticks to its delusions and considers something like a pre-emptive (nuclear) strike, all to preserve its right not to recognize the regime in N Korea.

    • P Ray
      August 8, 2017 at 10:51 pm

      Well, the leaders have to show they’re right, so that their followers trust their leaders, right?
      We’re creating AI, but many people are still indoctrinated or threatened-with-loss-of-livelihood unless they internalise the feudal serf mentality.

  7. August 9, 2017 at 8:14 am

    How dependent is their strategy, on the number of nukes they have? And how effective are our anti nuke capabilities? …..and how many nukes do you think they have/ does that even matter?


    Will write a post about that issue in more detail soon, but here is what I think is their overall strategy.

    Producing ICBMS is pretty inexpensive. So they can build a hundred or two of them without breaking a sweat.

    My guess is that they have 20-40 nukes, at least.

    Here is what I think they might do- in the absolute worst case scenario.

    Launch a hundred ICBMs within five minutes. Here is the kicker- only 20 or so will contain have real nukes. Rest will have dummy warheads with same look and ballistic performance.

    THAAD might not even get a small fraction of them and most will land on large metropolitan areas in USA.

    • P Ray
      August 9, 2017 at 9:59 am

      The fun thing about nukes is that things don’t end with the explosion,
      there will be 2 enterprises after, at least, that are predictable:
      1. confidence tricksters “selling” the irradiated land that is uninhabitable, at cheap prices to fools with money
      2. pickup guides for the irradiated people at least (in a few years from now, even pickup guides for the Zika-afflicted kids will be out, I’d guess).
      3. definitely something in Cosmopolitan about how men need to look past irradiated women’s strange new enhancements from normal women …

  8. A.B. Prosper
    August 9, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    The issue for the US is one of declining power. Anyone with any sense realized our day as the hegemonic power is ending , the only questions being is when and how bad will it be.

    if we were smart and we aren’t , we’d move to this leave the Norks alone (these guys actually do not want a first strike on the US) and mind our own matters . Maybe we can make the economy work better, prevent a three way ethnic war , save our infrastructure do that sort of thing

    Problem is our leaders being driven by an ideology that is essential closer to Wahhabism than any modern religion, can’t back down, Between the need to virtue signal and the need to be the reserve currency and the fact a lot of US business of the “we don’t actually make anything but synergy” types would be crippled, they can’t

    Honestly only our political paralysis, fear of China risk and total economic collapse and inability to solve problem anyway have prevented us from the logical outcome which is nuking North Korea preemptively

    Its truthfully the only way we can be safe in any sense and the continue what we doing is to do that and very possible Iran as well if we think they are a threat.

  9. August 9, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    Ok another question that I’m not sure has been covered… why did NK wait until now to produce nukes? I mean.. post Saddam/Ghaddafi etc makes sense but why NOW? IDK it seems like they are the ones playing fking 4d chess lol…. wait until a shaky Trump administration gets in and build nukes KNOWING everything he does will be (rightfully) scrutinized as insane/stupid… It’s like both sides are playing the madman strategy, but when one side faces ACTUAL potential destruction (NK from a number or internal/external factors), they’re more likely to go full throttle….

    Because it takes time to start large projects.. typically 5-10 years. The fact that their program reached a lot of its successful points after 2015 is due to them starting in earnest after 2003. In any case, most people around the world expected HRC and not Trump in Nov 2016.

    It is not multi-dimensional chess- just plain cold logic that resulted in NK’s decision to develop nukes and ICBMs. Basically, they have now made the cost of invading them too high for the american government to sell to it’s own citizens.

    Why didn’t the Soviets use their arsenal before collapsing? That’s the ONLY thing I never understood…. why not take the world down? What separates their peaceful end, from NK’s potentially deadly one?

    Because the collapse of state communism and its various institutions in USSR was not an existentialist threat to most people in that country. Going scorched earth makes sense when the threat is existential- as is the case with the establishment in NK.

  10. Hamsta
    August 9, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    I am having a hard time believing it is NK all on its own. I am sure that NK is being used as a subtle proxy for China or Russia (maybe some other nation) to put the US off balance and cause the US to be a monster.

    The case for NK doesn’t add up. Someone else is pulling the strings. It was Bardzini all along.

    • Dick
      August 13, 2017 at 11:49 am

      “The case for NK doesn’t add up. Someone else is pulling the strings. It was Bardzini all along.”

      Really? I put my bet on the Bogdanoff brothers.

  11. Yusef
    August 11, 2017 at 1:32 pm

    I wanted to put in some intelligent comment on this, and find I cannot. I can’t even decide whether the US is actually mobilizing for retaliation, “fury and fire” or not. There is military mobilization going on right now which I would ordinarily say is the strong signal the US is going to play hardball. On the other hand, it is possible this mobilization is no more than we see annually in S.Korea as part of war games and routine training exercises. Probably no one knows what’s going on and what’s going to happen. Dangerous? Hell yes. N. Korea could see the training exercises as the disguise of a pre-emptive attack and annihilation of their society… They could be exactly right about that. And if so, why not take down as much of their enemy as possible before they are destroyed? I would. This is so similar to October 1962, the height of the Cuban missile crisis. Little, impoverished Cuba, defenseless, isolated, a bit player in a wide, global, historical drama, yet poised on the eve of destruction as a principal player. We squeaked by on that one, God knows how.

  1. August 14, 2017 at 7:18 pm

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