Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s Motivations Behind Wanting to Meet Trump

Thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s Motivations Behind Wanting to Meet Trump

With the corporate media fixating on non-issues such as Comey’s recent book, the Mueller fishing expedition, Stormy Daniels latest BS claims and the most hilarious photo of Michael Cohen, it is not easy for many people in USA to be aware of the world beyond their borders. Also, as they say, nobody has gone broke underestimating the intelligence of american public. With that in mind, let us talk about an apparently unusual recent development in the state of relations between DPRK and USA. In case you missed it, the most important words in that sentence are ‘apparently unusual’- for reasons you shall see later on in this post.

Now, I am sure that at least some of you must have wondered about what factors were behind the sudden improvement in state of relations between DPRK and ROK (South Korea) since just before the 2018 winter Olympics. Why have relations between these two countries experienced a significant positive shift since the beginning of this year? And what does any of this have to do with the recent diplomatic overtures DPRK is making towards USA?

As regular readers know, I have written more than a few articles in the past few months about DPRK, especially its ICBM and nuclear weapon program. One of the more recent articles written by me on that topic made an interesting claim about how ICBMS and Nukes finally got Kim Jong-un the international respect he (and his predecessors) have always wanted. In that post, I also pointed out that Kim Jong-un’s recent interest in dialogue with ROK and USA were actually quite predictable since he has, in the past, repeatedly talked about his desire for such talks after DPRK acquired nukes and reliable ICBMs.

In fact, the stance of DPRK on talks with South Korea and USA have been pretty consistent over the years. They have also been very clear about what they want from any such deal. To summarize, DPRK wants a guarantee of security and non-aggression from USA and South Korea in addition to lifting of all economic sanctions against them in exchange for any deal which requires them to freeze their nuclear and missile program. The funny thing is such a deal with DPRK was reached and almost implemented in 1994. But american hubris and delusions of omnipotence ended up sabotaging what was probably the best (and only) chance of DPRK giving up its nuclear weapons.

The failure of that deal under Clinton42 and being labelled as part of ‘the axis of evil’ by Bush43 did however teach DPRK an important lesson. They realized that any deal made with the USA without the means for to independently enforce it was not worth the paper on which it was written. That is why they decided to keep on developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Development of these weapon systems reached a new urgency once Kim Jong-un formally became the head of state and the results of that drive are plainly visible. To make a long story short, nuclear weapons and ICBMs are the means by which DPRK can enforce any agreements it makes with USA and South Korea.

But haven’t we all heard some noise about DPRK willing to denuclearize soon? Well.. you heard wrong. DPRK is just repeating what it has always said, which is that it willing to participate in talks about denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The precise wording does change a bit every time they make that offer, however the general gist of their demands remains the same. In short, they will denuclearize only if guaranteed safety from future military attacks or invasion by USA or South Korea. The problem with that condition is that USA has proved to be a completely unreliable party to such agreements in the past, with DPRK and more recently with countries in the Middle-East.

It does not help that no country has renounced self-developed nuclear weapons once they have built more than a few of them. Nor does the american treatment of countries which did not have them (Iraq) or stopped developing them (Libya) inspire any confidence. So what is Kim Jong-un trying to achieve by meeting with Trump? Also, is this meeting really about Trump or USA? Some jingoistic idiots in USA think that Kim Jong-un expressing a desire to meet Trump is the result of “economic sanctions working”, “China finally getting tired of DPRK” or some other assorted masturbatory fantasy common among older white men. The reality, once again, is quite different.

The proposed meeting with Trump is largely about chipping away at the alliance between South Korea and USA. And here is why.. For starters, the ruling class in DPRK have a very good and objective understanding of how the establishment in USA works or does not work. They know that the deep state in USA is incapable of doing things other than more war, economic sanctions or attempting to rape the economies of other countries. They understand that any treaty with USA without independent means to enforce it is worthless. They also understand that anything short of dissolving the current system in DPRK will not be acceptable to the deep state in USA- and that is not going to happen.

They have figured out that different parts of the government in USA, such as the legislatures, can and will derail any agreement just because the D-grade actors within them like to “act tough” for the credulous idiots who voted for them. They are fully aware of the extent to which decisions made by legislators are controlled by corporate donors, especially from the military-industrial complex. In other words, DPRK understands that anything short of complete and utter capitulation by them is unacceptable to most cliques in the american government. But, they also know that many in South Korea are willing to sign an agreement with far more realistic terms.

So how do you drive a permanent wedge between South Korea and USA? Well.. you start by developing the capacity to reliably nuke large metropolitan areas in mainland USA. Acquisition of such a capacity by DPRK makes any serious conventional or nuclear assault on it by USA and South Korea basically impossible. It also makes significant american intervention in any armed conflict between DPRK and South Korea far less likely than before. But that by itself is not enough to drive a wedge between them, which is why you require the second part.

Then next step for driving a wedge between them requires DPRK to put forth conditions for an agreement whose terms are perfectly acceptable to South Korea but will never be accepted by USA (even if they initially appear to be willing). We should therefore see the latest diplomatic overtures by Kim Jong-un as part of a strategy where he offers basically everything necessary for South Korea to accept the agreement but with just enough sticking points to be rejected by USA. That way, Kim Jong-un appears as the stable and reasonable person willing to deal with other countries such as South Korea while USA look like some out-of-touch old white guy still living in the 1950s.

But why do such something like this, if it is almost certain to fail? After all, South Korea is unlikely to sign an agreement without the explicit approval of USA.. right? But here is the thing.. DPRK understands that and actually wants that outcome because of what such a public failure will lead to. While South Korea will not sign an agreement without explicit american consent at this moment, it might very well have to do within a couple of years. Face it.. DPRK with its nukes and ICBMs is going to magically disappear if you wait long enough and South Korea understands that only too well. They also know that some stupid miscalculation by USA (especially the Trump administration) in near future could get them nuked regardless of who started the conflict.

In summary, the long-term survival and strategic interests of South Korea are no longer in line with american policy towards that region. DPRK understands this inherent contradiction and is cleverly using it to split the close alliance between South Korea and USA. To them, the proposed meeting with Trump is therefore just an opportunity to decisively show South Koreans and the world that they are far more reasonable than USA. They also know that the sheer amount of vitriol against Trump by the deep state in USA will cancel out any reasonable move made by him in such a meeting.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. chaoserrant
    April 20, 2018 at 12:09 pm

    So… will South Korea be OK with US troops out of the country? Cause, if that is the case, if I were Trump, I will pack my toys and leave the two Korea’s make friends with each other. In other words, countries like South Korea need to make up their minds if they still need/want US military aid.

  2. MikeCA
    April 20, 2018 at 3:14 pm

    Trump clearly has delusions of grandeur and thinks that by meeting with Kim Jong-un that he can change the dynamic of the situation. At the same time Trump decided to meet Kim Jong-un he brought on John Bolton as his National Security Adviser. John Bolton was one of architects of the Bush 43’s failed hardline policy towards North Korea.

    My reaction to these two events was Trump wanted to look and act reasonable towards North Korea for a while and see if this would get North Korea to act reasonable too. John Bolton will make sure that Trump makes unrealistic demands. Did Trump realize that John Bolton would sabotage his dreams of grandeur?

    • botterd
      April 21, 2018 at 12:35 pm

      No delusions of grandeur, he just thinks that if he can meet people personally he can hammer out a mutually beneficial deal, or a compromise that’s the closest thing to a win-win agreement. That’s Trump’s first instinct from his wheeling dealing days. The fact that he has a huge ego and illusions of grandeur is a different matter. Trump doesn’t know a lot, and he is being railroaded into stuff because he has appointed all the wrong advisers and doesn’t get the game of politics or international statesmanship, but his own basic instincts is that it is better to talk and get along than to have pointless war and hostility. He wants to do business on favorable terms. The implementation is useless, but the basic idea is absolutely not crazy.

  3. April 21, 2018 at 7:50 am

    What do your pontifications REALLY mean? Will future events reveal that you are a brilliant observer, or an idiot? Is there any value in baiting arguments about imagined future events other than reveling whose “devil” you “advocate”?

    • P Ray
      April 21, 2018 at 8:16 am

      Reveals that in any agreement between N parties, there is actually N+1 participants, the +1 being the general audience.
      Making one of the parties look nuts or unreasonable to the +1 group is part of a lot of dealmaking and (office) politics.

    • botterd
      April 21, 2018 at 12:28 pm

      They’re not pontifications, they’re observations and reasoning. AD’s track record on a lot of this stuff is better than most “experts”. You, sir, are less than an asshole.

  4. April 21, 2018 at 7:52 am

    MikeCA, you have drunk so much of the koolaid that you have become the koolaid.

    • MikeCA
      April 21, 2018 at 1:12 pm

      This is just a meaningless troll comment which adds nothing to the discussion.

  1. May 25, 2018 at 5:12 pm

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