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There are Two Pathways for Trump’s Presidency to Implode in Real-Life

September 18, 2018 19 comments

As longtime readers might know, I have written more than a few posts about Trump in the past. To quickly summarize, my early and consistent predictions that Trump would win the Republican nomination and Presidency came true. I then went on to predict that his presidency would be a shit-show of epic proportions, which was rather easy, including the parts of his agenda (or lack thereof) that would start the process of sinking his presidency. My predictions that neither the “Russia-gate” non-scandal nor constant personal attacks against him by establishment politicians and corporate media would affect his favorability ratings among republican voters, have held out.

To put it another way, I have been correct about a lot of things concerning this particular topic. And that brings me to the subject of this post. Long story short, I now see two distinct and likely pathways for the Trump presidency to implode or become impotent (metaphorically) for the remainder of his term. But before we go there, let us talk about what will not bring him down. Far too many idiots are hoping for some Deus ex machina -type plot device to save the “good people of USA and its alleged democratic system from that bad man”. You might recall that the 2016 HRC campaign tried a similar approach and it failed in a spectacular fashion.

So let us start by first disabusing ourselves of the myth that american presidents, throughout history, have been good human beings or anything even remotely close. It is telling that most american presidents can be put into four categories: slave-owners, fat corrupt losers, hardcore racists and jingoistic warmongers. Of course, this has not stopped the political establishment and most americans of below-average intelligence from trying to portray these creatures as “heroes”. Heck, as we speak, the establishment is busy trying to rehabilitate the legacy of a president as brain-damaged and disastrous as G. W. Bush.

By the standards set by his 44 predecessors, Trump is not even an especially bad president. His biggest flaw, as far as the establishment is concerned, is that he is does not have the ability to lie to any useful degree while simultaneously doing horrible things. Most people who are not partisan democrats can, of course, see this and is the reason why personal attacks by corporate media, entertainment celebrities and establishment types had essentially no effect on his popularity- which was always rather low. That is also why the “Russia Gate” scandal is not sticking to him in spite of the unceasing efforts by those types of people.

So what could cause his presidency to crash and burn or lose so much public support that it will functionally impotent? Well.. there are two types of scenarios under which that could occur.

1] A prolonged trade war with the rest of the world, but especially China, would be extremely disastrous for his presidency. As many of you know, Trump seems to be obsessed with balance of trade with other countries. It is also one of the very few issues where his actions as president are somewhat consistent with what he said during his presidential campaign. So what is the problem with trying to “negotiate” better trade agreements with other countries? Isn’t USA the biggest global market or something like that? Aren’t some countries pretending to compromise?

Sadly (or not), USA is in no position to win a trade war- especially with China. For starters, most of the manufacturing capacity within USA left it for places like Mexico and China, a long time ago. More importantly, the supply chains for many products necessary to keep USA running are now almost entirely outside USA. The USA does not manufacturer much nowadays other than raw materials and agricultural products, some high-end CPUs and electronics, shiny but worthless weapons systems and various forms of entertainment. Don’t believe me? Just look around you and try finding value added products that are mostly made in USA.

But.. but.. who other than USA will buy Chinese products? What about everybody else in the whole fucking world! In case you haven’t noticed, most of the industrialized and industrializing world is as dependent on Chinese manufacturing as USA. The global penetration of a wide range of Chinese products, from smartphones and computers to construction equipment, textiles and chemicals, is so thorough that even large countries such as India are now approaching the levels of dependency of USA on Chinese manufacturing. Let us also not forget their internal market which has grown by leaps and bounds within last two decades.

And there is more! The Chinese government, unlike its american counterpart, has an extremely high level of control over ostensible private corporations and financial institutions within that country. They can disrupt important supply chains, screw with local operations of american corporations and target specific industries in USA with a degree of precision which their american counterparts cannot even imagine. The ability of USA to do the same to China is extremely limited and with the recent drama surrounding ZTE, you can rest assured that China is going to start pumping out its own high-end CPUs and other specialized chips within the next 2-4 years.

It certainly does not help that Trump’s outdated beliefs have simultaneously antagonized the other big trading partners of USA. Related to this has been the growing american tendency to use its legacy power in global banking to “punish” countries from Russia and Iran to China. While this trend, at least in its modern incarnation, started under Clinton- both Obama and Trump have pushed the use of such measures to the extent that other large countries simply use alternative financial networks. In a previous era (perhaps as late as 2008), such measures might have been somewhat effective because USA was the largest economy- in real terms.

To make a long story short, any prolonged trade war will result in the american dollar (and connected banking system) having an increasingly smaller part to play in international trade. As things stand today, USA is neither the world’s largest economy in real terms nor the biggest manufacturer of anything that people actually need. China, other Asian countries and rest of world on the other hand will just increasingly trade via alternate currencies and banking networks. Trump’ stupidity is only speeding up this inevitable process. And we are not even talking about the havoc that China could play on market values of american corporations. Also, no other country on earth today has capability to manufacture things on a large-scale like China.

2] Let us, now, talk about the consequences of new wars. As many of you know, Saudi Barbaria and that Zionist state want Uncle Sam to fight full-scale wars against Iran and Syria. Of course, they don’t care about consequences and outcomes of such wars or the monetary costs of these misadventures- or maybe, they have not thought through these issues carefully. Regardless, both potential conflicts are highly problematic- albeit for different reasons. Iran is far larger, much more united and way more populous than Iraq. Imagine invading a country that makes most of its own weapons, is about 1/5 th the size of USA and about 1/4 th the population. Did I mention that they fought a pretty long war with heavy casualties for eight years?

But.. but.. wouldn’t “superior” american airpower decimate their air-force or something like that? Well.. have a look at the location of that country and the major route for global oil transport. Do you really think that USA can keep the strait of Hormuz open- even if they had three aircraft carrier groups stationed next to that bottleneck? Did I mention they have tons of good anti-ship missiles, not to mention other means of disrupting oil transport directly. Then there is the issue of what their less-official forces might do with missiles to oil storage hubs on coast of Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries. Remember that they do not have to be especially effective to disrupt global flow of oil and send prices through the roof. Who wants to pay 300-400$ per barrel of oil?

Moving on to the situation in Syria- do you really think that any open military confrontation between Russia and USA over that country is going to end well? If you do, please get your head examined. The simple fact, is that, in 2018 nobody within Russia is seriously looking for some worthless “compromise” with USA. They have watched USA arm its east-European neighbors, try to annex Crimea via Ukraine, promote Islamic terrorism in their country and in general- try to destroy them by any means. To put it bluntly, any open armed confrontation between USA and Russia in Syria won’t remain restricted to that region. You do know that Russia has thousands of deliverable nuclear weapons, right? These conflicts have a tendency to escalate in ways one might not expect.. or want.

Which brings me to the situation with DPRK, or more precisely the hilarious lies that are being constantly regurgitated by state department about Kim Jong-un promising to unilaterally denuclearize after his first summit with Trump. First of all, he never promised anything along those lines. Secondly, the guy (and his close counsel) are very smart people who are fully aware that any agreement with USA is not worth the paper it was written on- unless you have ability to reliably nuke large cities on mainland USA. So ya, they are not giving up their nukes or ICBMs. Sure.. they might do some more meaningless confidence-building measures that look good on paper or video- but that is as far they will go. And guess what, South Korea is fine with that.

To summarize, Trump faces the prospect of a humiliating defeat in any trade war with rest of the world- but especially China. He is up against someone with far more capabilities than him, and they know it. They also know how to squeeze the proverbial balls of american corporations in ways that Trump cannot even imagine. As you might know, continued republican support for Trump has always been linked to not touching their corporate masters or interfering with their scams. Few republicans would be able to support Trump if a trade war with China cuts into the market valuations and profit margins of their corporate masters.

Similarly, starting any new war with Iran, Russia or DPRK would be most problematic for Trump. But I don’t think he understands that especially given the influence Of Saudi and other gulf state money and AIPAC in USA. In the best case scenario, it would fuck up oil supply and prices to levels beyonf ability of current system to adapt. Worst case scenario, we will find out how effective Russian or DPRK nukes are under real-life conditions. I am guessing that is not something any of us want to find out.. right?

What do you think? Comments?