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There are Two Pathways for Trump’s Presidency to Implode in Real-Life

As longtime readers might know, I have written more than a few posts about Trump in the past. To quickly summarize, my early and consistent predictions that Trump would win the Republican nomination and Presidency came true. I then went on to predict that his presidency would be a shit-show of epic proportions, which was rather easy, including the parts of his agenda (or lack thereof) that would start the process of sinking his presidency. My predictions that neither the “Russia-gate” non-scandal nor constant personal attacks against him by establishment politicians and corporate media would affect his favorability ratings among republican voters, have held out.

To put it another way, I have been correct about a lot of things concerning this particular topic. And that brings me to the subject of this post. Long story short, I now see two distinct and likely pathways for the Trump presidency to implode or become impotent (metaphorically) for the remainder of his term. But before we go there, let us talk about what will not bring him down. Far too many idiots are hoping for some Deus ex machina -type plot device to save the “good people of USA and its alleged democratic system from that bad man”. You might recall that the 2016 HRC campaign tried a similar approach and it failed in a spectacular fashion.

So let us start by first disabusing ourselves of the myth that american presidents, throughout history, have been good human beings or anything even remotely close. It is telling that most american presidents can be put into four categories: slave-owners, fat corrupt losers, hardcore racists and jingoistic warmongers. Of course, this has not stopped the political establishment and most americans of below-average intelligence from trying to portray these creatures as “heroes”. Heck, as we speak, the establishment is busy trying to rehabilitate the legacy of a president as brain-damaged and disastrous as G. W. Bush.

By the standards set by his 44 predecessors, Trump is not even an especially bad president. His biggest flaw, as far as the establishment is concerned, is that he is does not have the ability to lie to any useful degree while simultaneously doing horrible things. Most people who are not partisan democrats can, of course, see this and is the reason why personal attacks by corporate media, entertainment celebrities and establishment types had essentially no effect on his popularity- which was always rather low. That is also why the “Russia Gate” scandal is not sticking to him in spite of the unceasing efforts by those types of people.

So what could cause his presidency to crash and burn or lose so much public support that it will functionally impotent? Well.. there are two types of scenarios under which that could occur.

1] A prolonged trade war with the rest of the world, but especially China, would be extremely disastrous for his presidency. As many of you know, Trump seems to be obsessed with balance of trade with other countries. It is also one of the very few issues where his actions as president are somewhat consistent with what he said during his presidential campaign. So what is the problem with trying to “negotiate” better trade agreements with other countries? Isn’t USA the biggest global market or something like that? Aren’t some countries pretending to compromise?

Sadly (or not), USA is in no position to win a trade war- especially with China. For starters, most of the manufacturing capacity within USA left it for places like Mexico and China, a long time ago. More importantly, the supply chains for many products necessary to keep USA running are now almost entirely outside USA. The USA does not manufacturer much nowadays other than raw materials and agricultural products, some high-end CPUs and electronics, shiny but worthless weapons systems and various forms of entertainment. Don’t believe me? Just look around you and try finding value added products that are mostly made in USA.

But.. but.. who other than USA will buy Chinese products? What about everybody else in the whole fucking world! In case you haven’t noticed, most of the industrialized and industrializing world is as dependent on Chinese manufacturing as USA. The global penetration of a wide range of Chinese products, from smartphones and computers to construction equipment, textiles and chemicals, is so thorough that even large countries such as India are now approaching the levels of dependency of USA on Chinese manufacturing. Let us also not forget their internal market which has grown by leaps and bounds within last two decades.

And there is more! The Chinese government, unlike its american counterpart, has an extremely high level of control over ostensible private corporations and financial institutions within that country. They can disrupt important supply chains, screw with local operations of american corporations and target specific industries in USA with a degree of precision which their american counterparts cannot even imagine. The ability of USA to do the same to China is extremely limited and with the recent drama surrounding ZTE, you can rest assured that China is going to start pumping out its own high-end CPUs and other specialized chips within the next 2-4 years.

It certainly does not help that Trump’s outdated beliefs have simultaneously antagonized the other big trading partners of USA. Related to this has been the growing american tendency to use its legacy power in global banking to “punish” countries from Russia and Iran to China. While this trend, at least in its modern incarnation, started under Clinton- both Obama and Trump have pushed the use of such measures to the extent that other large countries simply use alternative financial networks. In a previous era (perhaps as late as 2008), such measures might have been somewhat effective because USA was the largest economy- in real terms.

To make a long story short, any prolonged trade war will result in the american dollar (and connected banking system) having an increasingly smaller part to play in international trade. As things stand today, USA is neither the world’s largest economy in real terms nor the biggest manufacturer of anything that people actually need. China, other Asian countries and rest of world on the other hand will just increasingly trade via alternate currencies and banking networks. Trump’ stupidity is only speeding up this inevitable process. And we are not even talking about the havoc that China could play on market values of american corporations. Also, no other country on earth today has capability to manufacture things on a large-scale like China.

2] Let us, now, talk about the consequences of new wars. As many of you know, Saudi Barbaria and that Zionist state want Uncle Sam to fight full-scale wars against Iran and Syria. Of course, they don’t care about consequences and outcomes of such wars or the monetary costs of these misadventures- or maybe, they have not thought through these issues carefully. Regardless, both potential conflicts are highly problematic- albeit for different reasons. Iran is far larger, much more united and way more populous than Iraq. Imagine invading a country that makes most of its own weapons, is about 1/5 th the size of USA and about 1/4 th the population. Did I mention that they fought a pretty long war with heavy casualties for eight years?

But.. but.. wouldn’t “superior” american airpower decimate their air-force or something like that? Well.. have a look at the location of that country and the major route for global oil transport. Do you really think that USA can keep the strait of Hormuz open- even if they had three aircraft carrier groups stationed next to that bottleneck? Did I mention they have tons of good anti-ship missiles, not to mention other means of disrupting oil transport directly. Then there is the issue of what their less-official forces might do with missiles to oil storage hubs on coast of Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries. Remember that they do not have to be especially effective to disrupt global flow of oil and send prices through the roof. Who wants to pay 300-400$ per barrel of oil?

Moving on to the situation in Syria- do you really think that any open military confrontation between Russia and USA over that country is going to end well? If you do, please get your head examined. The simple fact, is that, in 2018 nobody within Russia is seriously looking for some worthless “compromise” with USA. They have watched USA arm its east-European neighbors, try to annex Crimea via Ukraine, promote Islamic terrorism in their country and in general- try to destroy them by any means. To put it bluntly, any open armed confrontation between USA and Russia in Syria won’t remain restricted to that region. You do know that Russia has thousands of deliverable nuclear weapons, right? These conflicts have a tendency to escalate in ways one might not expect.. or want.

Which brings me to the situation with DPRK, or more precisely the hilarious lies that are being constantly regurgitated by state department about Kim Jong-un promising to unilaterally denuclearize after his first summit with Trump. First of all, he never promised anything along those lines. Secondly, the guy (and his close counsel) are very smart people who are fully aware that any agreement with USA is not worth the paper it was written on- unless you have ability to reliably nuke large cities on mainland USA. So ya, they are not giving up their nukes or ICBMs. Sure.. they might do some more meaningless confidence-building measures that look good on paper or video- but that is as far they will go. And guess what, South Korea is fine with that.

To summarize, Trump faces the prospect of a humiliating defeat in any trade war with rest of the world- but especially China. He is up against someone with far more capabilities than him, and they know it. They also know how to squeeze the proverbial balls of american corporations in ways that Trump cannot even imagine. As you might know, continued republican support for Trump has always been linked to not touching their corporate masters or interfering with their scams. Few republicans would be able to support Trump if a trade war with China cuts into the market valuations and profit margins of their corporate masters.

Similarly, starting any new war with Iran, Russia or DPRK would be most problematic for Trump. But I don’t think he understands that especially given the influence Of Saudi and other gulf state money and AIPAC in USA. In the best case scenario, it would fuck up oil supply and prices to levels beyonf ability of current system to adapt. Worst case scenario, we will find out how effective Russian or DPRK nukes are under real-life conditions. I am guessing that is not something any of us want to find out.. right?

What do you think? Comments?

  1. P Ray
    September 19, 2018 at 2:35 am

    China is already making x86 processors based largely on AMD’s designs. Well, when ‘Murica decided that Intel was the way to go, they made AMD think of all sorts of ways to survive … people shouldn’t talk about “loyalty” while letting their countrymen starve and not think it will have consequences.

    People can be “loyal” to Intel and spend twice as much if they feel “patriotic”.

    • plus d'un cafard
      September 22, 2018 at 5:55 am

      Intel has lots of people in Israel and Siberia, doesn’t it? Who considers it a truly American company?

      • P Ray
        September 22, 2018 at 9:26 am

        A preference for Americans to buy more Intel than AMD (and Intel is many times bigger than AMD) would mean they do like Intel enough to hand over more money to them versus AMD.

        Also this:
        https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/architecture-and-technology/global-manufacturing.html

        Assembly AND Test in Communist countries, e.g. China (<- the place Trump is having a trade war with) and Vietnam … that's gonna raise prices.

        Plenty of people still consider Intel an American company.

  2. NF
    September 19, 2018 at 8:22 am

    It’s pretty shocking (not really) how trump’s trade war exposes just how stupid the majority of Americans and “experts” are when it comes to economics. Obviously trump has no idea what he’s doing. Does he understand that imposing tariffs on goods made in China will increase the cost of products “made” in America? I doubt it. I doubt he can tell you any type of economic concept. I even bet he really believes that he can bring jobs back to America.

    One aspect of all this that I really find insultIng is how both sides love to point to jobs or the stock market to remind us that the economy is doing great. Is everyone really hat stupid? Does everyone really not see the massive depression that’s coming?

    Anyway, end of the day, the fact remains that all discussions about economics are meaningless as long as fiat currency and the fed are not discussed.

  3. September 19, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    the progressogrites are grabbing for straws…

    http://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/2018/09/18/the-12-worst-maga-twitter-reactions-to-stormy-daniels-claim-that-donald-trump-has-a-weird-small-mushroom-looking-dick/

    “For what it’s worth, Daniels isn’t a prostitute. Nor has she “failed” at porn; she’s won numerous awards as both a performer and a director.”

    hahaha…

  4. plus d'un cafard
    September 22, 2018 at 5:50 am

    I wish China would be able do produce an acceptable chip, as I’d like an alternative, but so far the all-Chinese CPU (Loongsoon) hasn’t been particularly impressive. The only serious upgrade to current designs that I know of is a western one (the Mill CPU). The Chinese and Japanese have had good industry for some time now, and yet when it comes to R&D, they just don’t seem even close to the West.

    Trump for sure must know that a collapse is possible soon, and everyone expects the US to suffer the most. If his trade war manages to bring back some skeleton of an industry before SHTF, he will have done some good for his country. Corporations will happily move out of the US if anything happens; they have no loyalty. Who in the US should care about their wailing? Trump is seen by some as the one selected to prepare the US to scale back into a normal country.

    In Syria, the US army still does whatever it wants, including training rebels in Al-Tanf in the south, and occupying the oil wells in the east. Putin had an option to react to the downing of the Il-20 recently, but decided to defuse, even though many Russians are itching to return just one of the many punches they endured. Not sure what game is played here. One of my guesses is that time is on Putin’s side and opposing factions are trying to bait him into something stupid before the US implodes (Russia and China would win by default then).

    • P Ray
      September 22, 2018 at 9:17 am

      I wish China would be able do produce an acceptable chip, as I’d like an alternative, but so far the all-Chinese CPU (Loongsoon) hasn’t been particularly impressive. The only serious upgrade to current designs that I know of is a western one (the Mill CPU). The Chinese and Japanese have had good industry for some time now, and yet when it comes to R&D, they just don’t seem even close to the West.

      Licensing to the rescue:
      https://www.tomshardware.com/news/china-zen-x86-processor-dryhana,37417.html
      AMD’s official statements indicate the company does not sell its final chip designs to its China-based partners. Instead, AMD allows them to design their own processors tailored for the Chinese server market. But the China-produced Hygon “Dhyana” processors are so similar to AMD’s EPYC processors that Linux kernel developers have listed vendor IDs and family series numbers as the only difference. In fact, Linux maintainers have simply ported over the EPYC support codes to the Dhyana processor and note that they have successfully run the same patches on AMD’s EPYC processors, implying there is little to no differentiation between the chips.

      The type of workaround called register-level compatibility … makes one processor look like another to software.

      It’s been around since the time of Cyrix … remember them?

      • plus d'un cafard
        September 22, 2018 at 11:46 pm

        I expected something much more ballsy from them, like branching out of the UltraSPARC T2 that’s been open-sourced by Sun for some time now.

        Chinese engineers must be frustrated that they can’t get the budget to do something new. Don’t these people have any pride?

      • P Ray
        September 23, 2018 at 3:43 am

        like branching out of the UltraSPARC T2 that’s been open-sourced by Sun for some time now.
        The time for fast single core is mostly only in High Frequency Trading, not breaking encryption … that requires parallelism (many cores) and memoisation. Yes, spelled correctly.

        Why should Chinese engineers do groundbreaking research which is very esoteric and likely to get canned? Maybe they remember the fate of Intel’s Knight’s Landing?

      • plus d'un cafard
        September 23, 2018 at 1:39 pm

        I think the T2 already had a few cores before it was popular. But anyway, parallelism can be done with multiple machines. At big scale you are forced into it. I don’t think the Chinese have an unusual interest in finance or crypto, but they seem very interested in AI. Where does crypto require memoisation by the way?

        IT R&D has got to be one of the cheapest kind, and many engineers today feel the field is stagnating and would love the opportunity to work on rethinking current systems. Even rediscovering past tech would be nice. Big government money into hard research is how Silicon Valley started, and look at the return on that investment. China could have the next one.

        I think however the nature of the people in the field might be incompatible with an authoritarian culture. Highly abstract fields, software especially, seem to attract liberals of all kinds. It’s funny how a society’s culture can manifest through its organised endeavours (dysfunctional Sunni Arab armies come to mind).

      • P Ray
        September 23, 2018 at 11:10 pm

        A lot of IT exists to make money, and they can’t make money unless people buy what they sell. Remember the Ouya?

        Where does crypto require memoisation by the way?
        Cryptocurrency and encryption are not the same thing.

        I think however the nature of the people in the field might be incompatible with an authoritarian culture. Highly abstract fields, software especially, seem to attract liberals of all kinds.
        Crunch time, terrible work environment … we’re talking Electronic Arts, Telltale Games, CD Projekt Red … why, those are all Western companies. With authoritarian culture. Lel.

      • P Ray
        September 23, 2018 at 11:13 pm

        China has a lot of interest in
        BREAKING encryption – they’d like to see others’ e-mails
        and
        STOPPING cryptocurrency – to stop outflow of yuan/renminbi that exceeds currency control limits

        Because a lot of Chinese criminals, want to change their money to Bitcoin, then buy property overseas, with no way to confiscate that asset because Bitcoin is anonymous.

      • plus d'un cafard
        September 27, 2018 at 2:06 am

        “A lot of IT exists to make money, and they can’t make money unless people buy what they sell.”

        This is small-scale thinking relative to a whole country. The example of early Silicon Valley really is a good one to emulate, and it involved pouring money into it without expecting sales on the public market. That includes Xerox PARC. Bell Labs was another model that produced results. Every time, people that thought “IT has to make money” had to be forced aside (GUI’s) or fooled (Unix).

        “Crunch time, terrible work environment … we’re talking Electronic Arts, Telltale Games, CD Projekt Red”

        Telltale were raging SJW’s. Those people are entropy made flesh, nothing orderly or prosperous can come out of them.

        The gaming industry is hell because there seem to be so many people wanting to get into it: cheap labor is us little people’s enemy. Still, any enterprise will be hierarchical, so authoritarian to a degree. The only exception is where creativity is needed, as in R&D, and some societies, usually western, have been able to create the necessary bubbles to host some amount of creativity.

        This said, I’ve talked to an IT guy who has worked in China, and remembers a much more professional workplace culture, with enough time to do one’s work. That’s indeed in contrast to constant “Agile” squeezing of workers dry in here. The West has lost much of the edge I’m talking about and needs a reset. A potentially ugly one, from what I see.

        Speaking of which, cryptocurrency seems for now like a trap for people who would have rushed into gold instead. The dynasties don’t want a panic before the planned moment. The one money that may soon matter is gold, and China controls movements of gold effectively, don’t they?

      • P Ray
        September 27, 2018 at 10:25 am

        Telltale were raging SJW’s. Those people are entropy made flesh, nothing orderly or prosperous can come out of them.
        Again, CD Projekt Red are SJWs too going by the Witcher’s original stories by Sapkowski if they were properly followed.
        Bioware had a good run of things then went SJW after EA bought them.

        Funny part is Linux is going that way too. Good thing I have all versions of Windows and the hardware to support it.

        The gaming industry is hell because there seem to be so many people wanting to get into it: cheap labor is us little people’s enemy. Still, any enterprise will be hierarchical, so authoritarian to a degree. The only exception is where creativity is needed, as in R&D, and some societies, usually western, have been able to create the necessary bubbles to host some amount of creativity.

        Maybe the creativity is because there’s no other way to “get de pussy”, the primary motivation for making mostly men distinguished and rewarded.

        This said, I’ve talked to an IT guy who has worked in China, and remembers a much more professional workplace culture, with enough time to do one’s work. That’s indeed in contrast to constant “Agile” squeezing of workers dry in here. The West has lost much of the edge I’m talking about and needs a reset. A potentially ugly one, from what I see.

        There’s a term called “Chinaman company” famous worldwide, that basically negates that, and explains it as a tyranny run by a boss who is by almost all accounts an idiot when it comes to fundamental understandings of the business, overpromises to clients and harasses the staff to deliver on (usually his) promises.

        “Agile” only makes sense when the customer is unwilling to pay more AND the provider doesn’t mind losing the client. Otherwise it’s an endless dance like an abusive relationship, with the customer never stopping their demands, and the developer always having to review the new demands. But it could also be said that the “Agile” movement is just a vehicle for some slave-driver manager to put it on their LinkedIn as an achievement so they will be headhunted for more pay. Some people are abusive BECAUSE it allows them to achieve their goal to get more pay elsewhere due to “notoriety of getting things done”. You can only stop these people by letting them do the work … themselves and alone.

      • P Ray
        October 3, 2018 at 8:40 am

        Lel, the Social Justice Warrior Sapkowski wants another payment for The Witcher.

        https://www.polygon.com/2018/10/2/17927916/the-witcher-author-andrzej-sapkowski-royalties-cd-projekt-red

        Remember kids, Social Justice Warriors eventually want a second payment for everything.

    • plus d'un cafard
      October 3, 2018 at 12:09 pm

      “Funny part is Linux is going that way too.”

      Well, Linux was uninspired and shaky engineering in the first place.

      “Maybe the creativity is because there’s no other way to “get de pussy”, the primary motivation for making mostly men distinguished and rewarded.”

      In general, I’d say yes. Civilisation itself is the result of so much extra effort extracted from betas that run after women (even if unconsciously). You need only a few Mr Odessa at the top, but below they’re useless, as they are tempted (correctly) to just give the little effort they need for sex and no more. Betas of course will pour their energy into violence if they have no better outlet. Sexual tension being necessary for civilisation to build itself is not a new idea: https://archive.org/details/b20442580 .

      However! When it comes to creative endeavour I’d say it requires a special beast, people that have an internal drive and would normally be outcasts, putting effort only towards their own crazy goal, without regard for society’s rewards and punishments. Again, I think European stock not only produces quite a few of these, but western society managed to extract useful stuff from them, though much less today. For the whole idea: http://geniusfamine.blogspot.com/ .

      “Remember kids, Social Justice Warriors eventually want a second payment for everything.”

      They burn all the ships they are allowed to board. In less liberal but more sane times, they would be sent away as hermits or monks, proving how holier than you they are all the same, but from a safe distance.

      Whatever you want to believe.

      • plus d'un cafard
        October 4, 2018 at 12:15 pm

        AD, I’m open to any argument that would stand up to scrutiny (as opposed to the dishonest SJW stuff that’s been put out the last century, trying to erase biological knowledge Soviet-style). Your last links did not change my mind; I do not need my kind to be the best (today’s world is proof that it’s not), I like it because it’s mine.

        As for SJWness, even including normal liberal values, they are part of the last stage of civilisation. Good for those who enjoy those materially wealthy times, but I see the spiritual weakness and the bad omen instead.

  5. Jay Fink
    September 22, 2018 at 5:40 pm

    It would be ironic if Iran/Syria is what takes Trump down because this foreign policy is something Democrats approve of, at least the establishment neolib wing of Democrats.

  1. January 2, 2020 at 9:59 pm

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