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Quick Thoughts on the Current Situation Between Indian and Pakistan

While “mainstream news” outlets in USA are focusing on the political theater surrounding Michael Cohen’s testimony and Trump’s latest brain-farts.. I mean tweets.. half a world away something of considerably more potential consequence is occurring right now. It all started about a couple of weeks ago when an Islamic suicide bomber driving a vehicle IED crashed into a bus full of Indian internal security forces in Kashmir, killing 40-42. At that time, the Indian government responded by condemning the attack and promising a suitable reprisal. Many establishment commentators in the west and their gungadin helpers, who pretend to be “India experts”, loudly proclaimed that India would not retaliate against Pakistan or do something small and localized.

As it turned out, they were wrong and after Indian warplanes crossed the international boundary in the early morning hours of 26th February and bombed a few training camps in Pakistan- as opposed to limiting themselves to targets in PoK. The Indian government claimed that about 300 people were killed, while its Pakistani equivalent denied it- as usual. We will find out what went down once pre- an post- strike satellite imagery of those sites is released. However, it is almost certain that they hit the designated targets with the precision guided munitions used during that attack. Anyway.. this penetration of Pakistani airspace made the PAF look kinda incompetent. So they decided to make a half-hearted attempt to drop some bombs on Indian territory.

As it turns out, they were challenged by many Indian aircraft and the PAF beat a hasty retreat after releasing their accordance on apparently uninhabited land. It also appears that there was a dogfight involving a Mig-21 and F-16 in which the Mig-21 shot down the former before being hit my either ground fire or SAM from the Pakistani side. Long story short, the F-16 as well as Mig-21 crashed on the Pakistani side of the border. While we do not know whether the pilot of that PAF F-16 is alive or dead, the Indian pilot was captured. Oh ya.. and there a helicopter crash (on takeoff) about 50 km from the border inside India. Of course, the Pakistani establishment, true to its form, started making up stories which were uncritically published by western “news” media.

So how will this potential conflict turn out? Well.. for starters I am not going to bore you with irrelevant bullshit about how both countries have nuclear weapons. Some might think that this is an odd thing to say, but as you will soon find out- nuclear weapons are, at best, peripheral to how things will turn out. In my opinion, the real factors driving this conflict and its potential outcomes have much more to do with political and other assessments by both sides rather than the dread of nuclear weapons. Moreover, as you will also see, the ground realities are not what people in the west, especially “credentialed” white people claiming to be experts, believe. Then again, why should it be surprising that people who were certain HRC was going to win in 2016 might also be wrong about a conflict between two countries on other side of the world.

So let me begin by stating the obvious..

1] The sheer size of India, its armed forces and resources available to it make any attempt by Pakistan to invade its territory highly suicidal- and this is a lesson which Pakistan has learned the hard way in past conflicts. In a full-scale war, India simply has vastly more people and stuff to throw at the problem than Pakistan. Similarly, India has no real desire to invade and occupy Pakistan, let one integrate it into itself, because almost nobody in India wants 200 million more Muslims within the Indian nation-state. So what do Indian military strategists dream about wrt Pakistan. Well.. they would like to dismember it into smaller pieces and maybe destroy their nuclear weapons- which leads us to the issue of how nuclear weapons might affect this conflict.

2] As some of you might know, India has a No-First-Use policy for nuclear weapons, or at least has said so in 2003. But over the years, things appear to have changed a lot and many senior bureaucrats have creatively interpreted that policy to not covering an imminent attack by another nuclear weapons state- which is a fancy way of saying that NFU policy is NFU in name only. In other words, India has made it clear that it will use nukes first (specifically to target the Pakistani nuclear arsenal) if it feels that Pakistan will use its own weapons. More importantly, India posses both the accurate nuclear missiles and space reconnaissance capability necessary to pull of a preemptive nuclear counterstrike. Will they get them all? No, but they don’t have to.

3] Here is the thing about having a couple of hundred nuclear weapons. Concentrating them at a handful of storage locations on land makes them kinda vulnerable- especially if your opponent has accurate nuclear missiles which can fly in unusual trajectories. Getting even 70-80% of them or the missiles used to launch them is enough to remove most of the threat. And given the escalation ladder inherent in an overtly nuclear conflict, it is likely that India might decide that a preemptive nuclear counterstrike is worth the risk once the conflict goes past a certain point. But how could this scenario occur? Aren’t Indians supposed to be cowardly lotus eaters who will meekly turn the other cheek and try to sue for peace?

4] A lot of white “credentialed experts” and their faithful brown flunkies in the west seem to think that nothing much has changed in India over the past five years. They are certain that India will respond in exactly the same self-defeating restrained manner it did in 1999 and 2009. But things have changed in more ways than the obvious one. See.. Modi is the first full-term PM of India who was born after 1947. Unlike previous occupants of that office, who grew up before partition, he has no affinity for the idea of dealing with Pakistan in a self-defeating “civilized” manner. Also, there is a general election within next 3 months and the popularity of his political party is not especially high, right now. In other words, he has a strong incentive to escalate this conflict.

5] Some of you might wonder why previous conflicts of this nature (for example 1999 and 2009) did not go as far as this one. Well.. the answer lies in the white-worshiping nature of past Indian political leadership. To make a long story short, previous Indian leaders were so craven for praise and pretend-acceptance from white men wearing expensive suits that they were eager and willing to sacrifice the interest of their people to ‘look good for the whites’. You might remember another series of posts where I described them as brown people who think they are honorary whites. Modi is somewhat different. While he certainly would enjoy being praised and accepted by whites, he also understands from his stuff is illusory. And then there is the issue of how his administration is structured or differently structured from previous ones.

6] For many reasons beyond the scope of this post, almost every politician in that administration other than Modi, Shah and a couple of others has no power over administrative decisions. This is a big departure from previous administration where every half-literate elected political weasel tried to influence every decision they could- usually to make money but often simply to assert themselves- which is another way to saying that decisions in this administration are usually made by tenured bureaucrats and administrators (who while corrupt, are nowhere as blindingly stupid and dysfunctional as the political class). That is why the decisions made by this administration, even the bad ones, are far more coherent than their predecessors.

So what does all of this mean as far as future developments in this conflict are concerned? Well.. for starters, Modi will take this much farther than any previous Indian prime minister. He kinda has to do that and also has the capability. Far more importantly, all major decisions are going to be made by administrators and bureaucrats with almost no interference from the incompetent political types. Now this could be good or bad, depending on how you look at it. What it does however mean is that western pressure will have little effect (especially compared to past occasions) on how India escalates this conflict. And ya.. if nukes start flying, they will start flying very quickly- rather than follow some “ladder of escalation”.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. February 27, 2019 at 9:52 pm

    “As it turns out, they were challenged by many Indian aircraft and the PAF beat a hasty retreat after releasing their accordance on apparently uninhabited land.”

    LOLzzzz, I thought you hindu muffins were edjumacayted…

    Donchya nose it’s ordinance not in accordance….

    BTW, I don’t appreciate you hindu muffins leaving these meme’s around…

    Who da fuque u think u ‘r !!!

    • lalit
      March 4, 2019 at 9:15 pm

      It’s a simple typo, you bloody Fool of an Ass. He meant to write Ordinance, obviously. Anyone can see that except for apparently you IQ worshipping, fattie banging, white nationalist idiots.

      All you could attack was his typo. That means you conceded the rest of the argument. Taleb was right about you dolts!

      FYI- He is spoofing a white nationalist of that name.

  2. Gp
    February 28, 2019 at 2:06 am

    Your post is quite reassuring. Mood is low here after a pilot was captured. You are correct, things could be far more unpredictable

  3. Conscience Constituent
    February 28, 2019 at 3:05 am

    I thought only right wing retards would be happy to see Pakistan nuked…
    Apparently, i was wrong,i mean come on as you said yourself,India has far more resources to use in an armed conflict,so if they wanted to punish Pakistan they could just use jet fighters,tanks and land troops to get an easy win on the Pakistani forces…
    If anything using nukes would make them look like cowards…and supid too,who uses nukes on a country that’s next door.

  4. balu
    February 28, 2019 at 3:38 am

    I usually agree with you, but now I’m kinda uncertain. It is very likely that the Paki claims are right, and now they are the smart ones. The “training camp” and 300 dead is very likely just talk, Modi had to show he would act in a definite way. The Pakis actually offered immediate cooperation after the bombing of the bus (which was likely a guerilla action anyway), and they’ve been trying to defuse the situation ever since. Modi chose escalation and a likely ineffectual bombing (and then claiming victory). The Pakis did the same. Symbolic action is usually considered useless, but it can very useful, eg. Hezbollah used to shoot into the sky _after_ Israeli overflights. Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah (and very likely one of the most intelligent and capable leaders of our time) explained that while no one would get hurt, the northern part of Israel would have to spend the night in the bomb shelter every time they choose to violate Lebanese airspace. The Israelis were furious. Back to the Pakis, I think they used their bombing run to lure Indian aviation into the range of their SAMs, a carefully set up trap, and the shooting of the F-16 is very likely a tale to sweeten the loss of their aircrafts. Regarding the helicopter, the official Paki sources were very specific claiming that they shot at _intruding_ _jets_.

    • Gp
      February 28, 2019 at 5:02 am

      I am intrigued by your claims on Nasrallah. Any piece or link on his modus operandi, ideology etc. Thanks

      • balu
        February 28, 2019 at 5:47 am

        I can’t find these quotes. I read them cc. 10 years ago. There was another quote about the military effectiveness of katyusha rockets, he compared them to a water pistol, but anyway they are feared by the Israelis.

      • balu
        February 28, 2019 at 9:15 pm

        I’ve actually noticed that online material about these issues changes very rapidly. I’m pretty sure we can witness censorship in working. These are not the only stuff I cant find now about Nasrallah or Hezbollah.

  5. balu
    February 28, 2019 at 3:42 am

    And one other point. Please read the press statement of the Paki PM. This guy is certainly not an idiot, actually his words are like the words of reason.

  6. balu
    February 28, 2019 at 3:58 am

    Oops, I have to tell you I’m neither Pakistani, nor Indian.

  7. Weekend Goth
    February 28, 2019 at 10:04 am

    ” almost nobody in India wants 200 million more Muslims within the Indian nation-state”

    Healthy attitude.

  8. Jason
    February 28, 2019 at 2:37 pm

    It’s 2 girls fighting each other. This is going to accrue to nothing big as the OP makes it out to be. They’ll kiss and make up tomorrow. If not, I hope both countries get destroyed. I can’t stand Indian fobs and Paki fobs.

  9. nyolci
    March 4, 2019 at 5:47 am

    This the copy of a post from another forum (it wasn’t my post), I think it summarizes well what we can know now about this affair (apart from the Zionist reference which actually may be true in a sense that the US and partners always try to incite peoples against each other). The commenters sentence “The Pakistanis told the truth from the get go” is very probably right, and India looks like a bunch of idiots now. The “pine trees” refer to the actual location of the original Indian air strike, ie. they didn’t hit any meaningful target. The Pakis are trolling the Indians now by starting a case at the UN about the “eco terrorism” of India. Poor tree killers… So the post:

    Pakistan and truth do not belong in the same sentence. Need I remind you that they still pretend to have not lost in 1971.

    Like I posted on day one of India’s pathetic “surgical strike” on Pakistani pine trees, it was a Zionist idea to goad a dumb illiterate Modi, tea stall Hindu extremist thug into a war with Pakistan. The only problem being in this disastrous and humiliating stunt was that Pakistanis were ready and waiting and their first rate force whupped India’s miserable liar ass. Modi is now sulking and the Congress Party and all opposition is laughing at his miserable election gimmickry. The Pakistanis told the truth from the get go. The Zionist scum got India humiliated. The Indian fuckers instead of accepting their losses started telling bizarre porkies, much to Pakistan’s credit, they did not gloat and returned the grandpa Indian pilot, while the Indian Hindu fanatic savages stoned to death a poor Pakistani fisherman who was held captive in their jail. Then you wonder why the people of Kashmir want freedom.

    Your projection is comic. Here is the thing.. the generation of political leaders in India who used to care about what Pakistan feels have either died or are in their late 80s. Also, the general social and political climate in India has shifted to the point where the few who want accommodation are now the subject of public ridicule.

  10. lalit
    March 4, 2019 at 9:03 pm

    A post worthy of a Hindu nationalist. My My! Mr. Advocatus, Why I never!

    At any rate, after reading the reaction of western media to any achievement by india, space flight, GDP growth, missile launches, I can’t wait for white countries run by their credentialed idiots to go to shit.

    I have white friends and I like many white people. But Sorry, white people. You have to go.
    Its either us or you.
    Nothing personal!
    I hope you understand. I don’t really care if you do.

    And if we Hindus going, We’ll do all we can to take you with us!
    Yeeha!

  11. MikeCA
    March 5, 2019 at 10:28 pm

    “As it turned out, they were wrong and after Indian warplanes crossed the international boundary in the early morning hours of 26th February and bombed a few training camps in Pakistan- as opposed to limiting themselves to targets in PoK. The Indian government claimed that about 300 people were killed, while its Pakistani equivalent denied it- as usual. We will find out what went down once pre- an post- strike satellite imagery of those sites is released. However, it is almost certain that they hit the designated targets with the precision guided munitions used during that attack.”

    This article:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/images-show-madrasa-buildings-standing-indian-attack-claim-190306033806638.html

    says that satellite images taken six days after the raid show no damage to the sites the Indians claim to have destroyed.

    The Indian government has not released any official photos yet, so it is all speculation. Having said that, the weapons used were perfectly capable of doing what they claimed. The exact causality numbers are suspect- just like those disseminated by their american counterparts . Also, Pakistan would not have reacted like that if they had simply hit trees and dirt. Here is my guess.. the targets were in more densely populated areas than either side is willing to admit.

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