Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Some Thoughts on Possible Medium-Term Fallout of NZ Mass Shooting

Some Thoughts on Possible Medium-Term Fallout of NZ Mass Shooting

By now, you must have all heard about the latest live-streamed mass shooting, which occurred in New Zealand (surprisingly) rather than USA, and resulted in the death of 50 people. Apparently, the main perpetrator, Brenton Tarrant, was Australian by birth and citizenship. So far, very little is known about the role of other 2 or 3 other people arrested for helping him. While the precise set of reasons which made this white idiot go on a shooting spree are less than clear, based on his manifesto (link 1, link 2– FYI, link 2 is a supremacist site) it has something to do with the “clash of civilizations”, inciting race war and low white birth-rates or something along those lines. However there are tens of thousands (if not more) of white idiots who harbor almost identical beliefs, and yet the vast majority live out the remainder of their pathetic lives or die of opioid overdose or alcoholism. The first question is- what made this particular idiot act out?

The next question concerns how normal, or abnormal, his actions were. As I wrote in a previous post, there is no real difference between the actions of somebody like this and any soldier who willingly participated in the failed occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. Never forger that killing 50 Muslim civilians in Iraq or Afghanistan as a soldier would likely have no adverse consequences. Heck.. he might even have received a decoration or two for doing that exact same thing. Also, do you remember all those famous neocon and neoliberal “intellectuals” with cushy sinecures who have repeatedly expressed very similar sentiments about Muslims. In case you don’t, have a look at the writings of people like Bill Kristol, Max Boot, David Frum etc between 2002 and 2007. Even more blatant examples can be found in writings of scam artists such as Sam Harris, Ben Shapiro, Dave Rubin and Eric Weinstein. An interesting collection of people..

Let us focus on the possible short- and medium- term effects of this mass shooting. For starters, this one is very different from the majority of mass shootings which occur in USA and are secular. While there have been a few religion-inspired mass shootings in USA, such as Orlando nightclub shooting as well as San Bernardino attack, they are uncommon. Instead, the most common type of mass shooting in USA involves a young or middle-aged guy who decided to go on a mass shooting because he was unhappy with his life, one or more woman, his employer or society. While some shooters can be older like that Las Vegas shooter, the majority of mass shooters in USA do so for very secular reasons. But why does this matter? Well.. it is relevant to medium-term effects. But before we go there, let us quickly go over the short-term effects.

The most important and consequential short-term effect of this mass shooting involves how it has exposed the cluelessness and sheer incompetence of New Zealand officialdom. Their hilariously pathetic attempts to suppress the manifesto and video clip of that massacre have, if anything, given them far more visibility and popularity. Even worse, their heavy-handed attempts to censor searches for it, via Google, have all but ensured that we will see an endless variety of recut and dubbed versions of it in the near future. The smart thing would have been to let them become viral for a week or two before something else displaces them from the headlines. But the kiwi idiots, in their infinite stupidity, have ensured that this the loser’s manifesto and video clip will live on for far longer than it otherwise would have. Also, this comes almost two years into increasing public concern over monopoly issues in the tech sector. Smart move, boneheads!

Before we go the likely medium term (6 months to 5 years) effects of this incident, let me tell me why I am not going to speculate on the long-term effects of this one. Firstly, predicting the future with decent accuracy beyond ten years is hard and can be done reliably only for large-scale trends. For example, there is a very high probability that USA and the “west” will be significantly less powerful and consequential (than they are now) in two decades. It is also likely that USA, as a nation, will slowly come part during that time-span. Similarly the racial composition of working age population in the previously “white” west will change irreversibly with major down-stream effects. And there is nothing which can change that dynamic. This mass shooting is, however, too small an event (at least right now) to have any significant long-term effects and will be seen as no different from the one perpetrated by Anders Breivik in 2011.

The medium-term effects are, however, interesting as well as reasonably predictable. So without further delay, here are some of them- in no particular order.

1] Relatives of the main shooter and his accomplices are going to be walking targets for years to come, perhaps for the rest of their lives. The MSM punditry seem to have either missed this one completely or believe that it cannot happen. Remember the part where I said that this shooting is different because the motivations were based in religion and race, rather than secular stuff? The thing is.. most of those Muslim victims came from cultures with a strong tradition of seeking vengeance on those who have wronged them and their relatives. Add to this the willingness of a certain middle-eastern country to lavish money on organisations which promote the Wahhabi version of Islam. Not to mention another country which is certain that, it and not the first one, is the true defender of Islam. And then are other radicalized organisations who might find relatives of the perpetrators to be deserving targets. Ya.. shit could get interesting very quickly.

2] Readers might have also noticed that lots of “gun control” advocates in USA are trying to use the events in NZ and the subsequent and stupid local government response to it to press for “gun control” legislation in USA. In my opinion, this attempt will backfire badly for a number of reasons that are beyond the scope of this post. The very short version is as follows: the democratic party in USA (like all neoliberal parties in rapidly declining west) has no desire to effect the type of populist change which could actually get it tons of new voters. This is why they lost to Trump in 2016 and Bush43 in 2000 and 2004. So how do they retain their core partisan and idiot voters? Well.. by campaigning on cultural wedge issues which will get them enough core voters to be relevant, even if they do not win. Expect them, and their urban professional supporters, to double and triple down on futile attempts at gun control which will likely cost them the 2020 election.

3] The NZ mass shooting will intensify the ongoing conflict between internet monopolies and alt-right idiots in USA. While I have no love for alt-right types, I would like to see internet monopolies broken up and made irrelevant in more than one way. The way I see it, internet monopolies have the potential to be far bigger long-term threats to everyone than a few losers who carry tikki torches and home-made shields with norse-inspired emblems. It is very likely that we will see an intensification of the ongoing conflict between these two despicable groups. Expect more decentralized options to centralized services arise and gain useful. Also expect more boneheaded and overzealous attempts at platform censorship and deplatforming by tech monopolies with the potential for violent blowback from alt-right types.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. March 17, 2019 at 7:41 pm

    “This essay was written before the events in Charlottesville. To make it clear, I was not involved in and did not support the “Unite the Right” event in any way — I was at a rock concert in Eugene, Oregon — and I no longer support Richard Spencer or the “Alt-Right.”

    teeheeheee…. I get to use weasel words then pretend I don’t support violence when some vibrants get killed…

    donchya just love how that plausible deniability works…

    http://www.jack-donovan.com/axis/2011/03/violence-is-golden/

    and BTW…

  2. March 17, 2019 at 7:46 pm

    Even though I voted for Don the Con to appear masculine and tough, I really wish Killary won so I could see those dead syrian babies on the news every night !!!

    See Hail !!!

    14 eight (not) str8

    • Weekend Goth
      March 18, 2019 at 6:08 am

      Watching “the left” eat itself apart again is fun. The Trumpster has already won the next presidential election without doing a thing.

  3. March 17, 2019 at 7:51 pm

    and, uh, tell that horrid homeless guy to stop it with the memes !!!

    yes, I hook up with Fatt Horney, it’s not like you guys never chubby chased, so don’t judge….

    and BTW, he was soooo fat I couldn’t get all the way in there and he smelled like rotten cottage cheese and fish, WTF !!!

  4. jack donovan
    March 17, 2019 at 7:54 pm

    BTW, will you horrid hindu muffins stop spreading this meme !!!

    it’s not as if you goys never chubby chased, yeah I regret it butt I won’t forget it…

  5. P Ray
    March 17, 2019 at 8:32 pm

    The New Zealand Police came in with what sounded like a demand for (paraphrased): “all technical information about who requested the video” without specifying how they’d pay for all the effort and storage space required … not to mention getting somebody else to do their work for them (while they collect a paycheque) … which sounds suspiciously like welfare, something that many Kiwis say they hate

    https://archive.fo/WXAS2

    Naturally with such an entitled attitude and request, NZ Police were told something close to “gently caress yourselves”.

  6. Ronin
    March 17, 2019 at 11:55 pm

    The OP lost all credibility when it called Sam Harris and Eric Weinstein as “scam artists”. I would like to know what the OP’s real education or accomplishments are as compared to Eric Weinstein (PhD Mathematical Physics Harvard University, Fellowship at MIT)? Let me guess, the OP will state his educational credentials are meaningless because “scam artists”; doesn’t matter what degrees or credentials they have.
    If you don’t think Islamism hasn’t caused a lot of killing in its name throughout the world, then you are an idiot. How has Islamic culture helped the UK, Sweden, or Germany in any way? Did you forget about the Manchester bombing? Did you forget about the Paris incidents: Charlie Hebdo and the Bataclan shooting? Are you seriously that incompetent because your cognitive bias, you being a Brown turd, makes you want to hate on White people any possibility that you can get?
    Seriously dude, go reassess you writing and come back with some rational viewpoints without your biases.
    Regarding your point [1], the relatives of the shooter will be quite fine. No Islamic jihadist is going to come after them. The only ones Jihadists are going to come after innocent Westerners, as they have always done so.

    • P Ray
      March 18, 2019 at 12:27 am

      Actually going by “Tarrantino”‘s logic, his relatives are part of an oppressive system, and so are the “innocent Westerners”.

      The fun part about extremists is that they try to make everything about them, which in the end means they can only reach agreements with other extremists, the moderates either having all been killed, or have to join up with the extremists for safety in numbers.

      Criticising the OP while not letting us know your wondrous educational achievements is also not fair.

      And to add more fun into the mix, did you know that AMD is part-owned by a Middle East investment firm AND some of their chips are made in Commie China? So keep believing “only good things come from the West” and “people of colour are a danger to muh White civilization”.

    • P Ray
      March 18, 2019 at 6:19 am

      If we’re going to talk about how people with math PhDs totally understand social nuances, I think it’s a bit unfair you left out Larry Summers (Lawrence Henry Summers).

      You know, that guy who said (paraphrased) “women can’t math” … then was made to resign his job?

      I think that was something many people missed though – that event really looked the start of outrage culture, in how saying something others don’t like meant you have to resign.

      But to end on a flippant note, at least we have “Orange Man Bad” to blame for all the ills of the world, right?

  7. plus d'un cafard
    March 26, 2019 at 8:58 am

    You talk about relatives… have you looked at the shooter’s past? Or suspicious things that happened a few years ago in Christchurch? The people at infinity chan (the big bad white “terrorist den” where Tarrant supposedly radicalised himself) are split between “he’s a hero!” and “he’s mossad” for those that dug around.

    Symbolically, however, it’s the same: white people are now dangerous again. Power comes before morals.

    (The nation-wide scarf wearing, strongly pushed for through peer-pressure and the government was also a perl.)

  8. P Ray
    April 5, 2019 at 10:18 pm

    Just realised that nobody seems to have used that lovely chestnut, and they really should have:
    “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter”.

    Imagine changing all the headlines of a newspaper from terrorist and terrorism to … freedom fighter and liberation.

    It would be quite interesting to observe how Social Justice Warriors react to that.

  9. P Ray
    April 5, 2019 at 10:48 pm

    I would also say … the victims are going to be very closely watched, under the reason of “taking care of their welfare since they suffered such a horrific loss” … their associates, meeting places and purchases will be monitored and vetted – New Zealand is already a bit of a police state for non-white people –
    and speaking up against it will have the usual reply “If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear”.

    • P Ray
      April 14, 2019 at 12:03 am

      Lel, looks like I was right, New Zealand police have been actively keeping records on their population … while the regular kiwis rail against China for state monitoring. New Zealanders have a particular idea of exceptionalism – they think that the scandals overseas would never happen to them …
      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12222308
      Forty per cent of us flagged by police
      14 Apr, 2019 7:22pm 10 minutes to read
      The Dunedin Central Police Station District Command Centre. Photo / Peter McIntoshThe Dunedin Central Police Station District Command Centre. Photo / Peter McIntosh
      Otago Daily Times
      By: George Block
      Nearly two million people appear in a New Zealand police intelligence system with an alert against their name, inquiries by the Otago Daily Times have revealed. Those in the database are generally flagged without their knowledge, and a leading security analyst says the broad sweep of the system raises privacy concerns. George Block reports.

      Remember, New Zealand is a democratic country. The police are your friend. New Zealand has laws about data protection and privacy. Injustice never happens here. You must recognise that our culture is vastly superior to others, who embrace cronyism, secrecy and lying. Yes, New Zealand is truly the best country in the world. Lel.

    • P Ray
      April 27, 2019 at 9:39 am

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-shooting/112287710/christchurch-terror-attack-more-than-100-people-being-monitored-by-police
      Strategic analyst and former Pentagon official Dr Paul Buchanan said it was positive that police were not solely focused on one community or ideology.

      “You’re no longer focusing just on Muslims you’re no longer focusing on skinheads, you’re not looking at them in terms of colour or religion per se, you’re looking at them because of the behaviour or the things they say or the things they do.”

      The demographic of people most concerning tended to be younger men with lower educational status, limited economic opportunity, or who were frustrated in their social lives and alienated from their families.

      “They want to find excuses for why life has turned out bad for them,” he said.

      “Now you can find justification, an excuse for your plight, on the internet, you can be sitting in your bedroom and getting radicalised and no-one will know the better of it unless of course you’re using certain phrases or you’re looking for stuff that the intelligence services are able to tap into using their algorithms.”

      So … does that also include Maori then? (Hee hee, that was just an easy target) or are the police afraid of going there?

  10. P Ray
    April 12, 2019 at 1:57 am

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-shooting/111922345/christchurch-terror-video-will-be-used-to-train-facebooks-artificial-intelligence
    A Facebook spokesman told Stuff “hashing” technology created a digital fingerprint based on the metadata from the video of the Christchurch shooting. That meant any similar videos would automatically be removed from Facebook and Instagram.

    Sorry boyo, hashing technology – or creating a checksum only works when …
    the file is completely identical.

    To get around this (by creating a permutation), you can:
    1. change the resolution of the video
    2. change the colour depth of the video
    3. slow down the video
    4. speed up the video
    5. edit the video into splices with combinations of 1-4
    6. play it in reverse
    7. change the video format

    Hey, I’m just doing my bit to ensure our digital guardians and AI actually have to work to earn their money or investments. Those who get the same pay without working are practising corruption.

    The people whom they are telling that bullshit to are senile idiots. So I guess they don’t care about being truthful or realistic.

    • P Ray
      April 12, 2019 at 1:58 am

      Oh, and also change the audio track as well … make voices louder or softer, reverse them, eliminate them altogether …

      There is no real “AI” that can censor that. Just lots of people working as content moderators.

      Don’t thank me, I’m just doing my job to increase employment 🙂

      • plus d'un cafard
        April 27, 2019 at 12:54 pm

        Perhaps they were talking of fuzzy hashing. Probably not.

        I’m sure neural networks can pick up on crazy details. However if even Facebook, with the IA teams they employ, have to pay human farms to censor content, I guess it’s not there yet indeed. Funnily, these censors actually get converted into holocaust deniers and conspiracy nutters by the things they have to review: https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/25/18229714/cognizant-facebook-content-moderator-interviews-trauma-working-conditions-arizona

      • P Ray
        April 28, 2019 at 9:12 pm

        You can use steganography to insert documents into a video feed, which wouldn’t change the video to the human eye, would still count as a new video because the hash would change

        AND this is a completely foolproof way to put out the same video while being completely different when it comes to the checksum being generated

        Thanks for reminding me of this method, I’d not remembered it for awhile!

  11. P Ray
    May 14, 2019 at 7:20 am

    New Zealand is rapidly turning into China, with the idea that
    “You cannot be dis-satisfied here, this is Godzone, any wrong speech or thought will be punished*”
    *Only applies to new immigrants and non-Maori I suppose

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-shooting/112723836/collaboration-between-tech-companies-and-governments-mooted-in-christchurch-call
    The Government is interested not just in the more overtly extreme content – such as the livestreamed murder – but also the rabbit holes that can lead people to extreme views – known online as “redpilling”.

    Lel, so Al-Qaeda, ISIS, The Stern Gang (Haganah), IRA … were all redpillers? That’s news to me.

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