Archive

Archive for May, 2019

2019 and 2020 Will be Much Bigger Shitshows than 2015 and 2016

May 30, 2019 13 comments

As regular readers know, I often make predictions on a number of topics which later turn out to be right (or pretty close) with a high rate of success. More importantly, I am able to accurately identify the underlying dynamics, trends and forces responsible for the ultimate outcomes. Now let me make another seemingly obvious prediction, but with far greater insight and details than possible for quacks.. I mean credentialed “experts”. My prediction is that 2019 and 2020 will be far larger and more problematic shitshows than 2015 and 2016. Some of you (MikeCA?) might argue that every day since the election of Trump has been a shitshow.. and that is technically sorta true. But if you think that 2017 and 2018 were shitshows, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

There are many reasons why this period of 1.5 years will be an epic meta-shitshow of the likes we haven’t witnessed in living memory. However, it is not simply the sheer number or magnitude of individual shitshows that will make this period memorable, but how one shitshow will feed into another and so on.. you know, synergy. But before we go there, let us talk about why 2015 and 2016 marked the beginning of our current era of shitshows. It all began with an orange Buffoon riding down a gaudy escalator alongside a trophy wife with a face pumped full of cosmetic Botox. Initially it seemed that his campaign for the republican presidential nomination was just another publicity stunt to obtain a larger payout from the reality show in which he was starring.

However it became obvious to me within 4-6 weeks that his outrageous and colorful persona had far more public support than effete Washington DC ‘insiders’ realized. And yes.. I never changed my opinion on that issue and turned out be right. And ya.. I also predicted he would win against Hillary in early 2016, even at times when even the most radical presstitues.. I mean journalists.. thought that HRC might somehow prevail against him on election day. I also explored the real reasons why HRC would lose to that buffoon– before the election took place. FYI- majority of my accurate predictions have been about issues and topics other than Trump. But enough about the orange buffoon. Let us now talk about Brexit- more precisely, why the ‘remain’ side lost.

MSM news outlets in that rapidly decaying country (UK) want you to believe that Brexit was due to the stupidity of poorly educated people in that country. However a simple look at the geography of that vote tells you all you need about Brexit. Long story short, post-2008 austerity measures in UK hit parts of the country that are not London pretty hard. People who live in those regions, aka most of that country, got progressively disillusioned with the shitty status quo. They expressed their discontent by voting against something which stood as a placeholder for the widely reviled status quo. You know.. just like people in the Mid-West finally got tired of Obama’s 8-year long lie about “Hope and Change” voted for Trump over the symbol of continuity aka HRC.

But both these shocks to the Establishment, their aftermath and colorful rhetoric accompanying both those changes are nothing compared to what we will witness in 2019 and 2020. While I will restrict my predictions to USA, things are also likely to get interesting in other parts of the world- maybe a bit too interesting. But before we go to the list, a word of caution. The most obvious reasons are unlikely to be the most consequential. The less glamorous reasons, further down the list, carry far more weight than the shiny but superficial ones which are obvious. So let us start by listing them in order of apparent obviousness.

1] Ever since Trump won the republican nomination in mid-2016, democratic establishment and deep state types have been trying to find enough dirt to stop his victory in the 2016 presidential election (which they failed) or impeach him. As things stand today, they have not uncovered anything more scandalous than Trump getting his disgraced lawyer to pay hush money to two women he had sex with while married to his current wife. While this revelation does provide fodder for supermarket tabloids, it is totally unsurprising and in line with Trump’s past behavior. More importantly, the Mueller investigation has not uncovered evidence of “collusion” between Trump and Russia or Putin. Nor has it shown any definitive evidence for obstruction of justice by Trump. And I know MikeCA will have something to say about my characterization of that report.

But these severe setbacks have not stopped an increasing number of democrats from demanding his impeachment, because face it.. they always knew he was “guilty” of something impeachable. Today, the patron saint of pro-impeachment brigade aka Robert Mueller came out and all but openly encouraged democrats to start the impeachment process, even though his report does not contain enough evidence to prosecute Trump for either “collusion” or obstruction of justice. And ya.. I am aware of the legalese bullshit about not being able to exonerate him- but let us get real, people are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. It also helps to be rich and white, but that is a topic for another post. My prediction is that democrats will initiate pre-impeachment proceedings against Trump, irrespective of potential negative effects it might have on their electoral prospects in 2020. But how does this translate into a nasty shitshow?

Well.. for a few reasons. Firstly, it is unlikely Trump will be impeached, tried and made to resign before November 3, 2020. Secondly, the pre-impeachment investigation is going to be long and highly contentious. It will also overshadow democratic primaries and possibly the presidential election to such an extent that other issues will be effectively sidelined. So be prepared for a democratic primary in which candidates offer endless paeans to bipartisanship, civility in politics, reestablishing “norms” and impeaching Trump at the expense of all the other stuff most voters in the general election actually care about. You know.. stuff like antitrust action against various monopolies and oligopolies, medicare for all, doing something about student debt etc. Think of HRCs “what will the children think” 2016 campaign on steroids. But in some ways, this will be smallest shitshow of them all.

2] Stupid old losers who constitute a majority of democratic primary voters in large states seem to be enamored by “gun control” aka banning civilian ownership of guns. Given that everyone in the packed clown car of democratic candidates is expected to appeal to them, one should expect increasingly shrill and strident anti-gun ownership rhetoric. While appealing to these losers might help one win the primary and a few coastal states in general, it is almost guaranteed to backfire in swing states- especially those with large rural and semi-urban populations. Now add in a few random mass shootings (almost inevitable?) between now and Nov 3, 2020 and you can imagine how nutty this could get. Expect the Democratic house to pass one or more atrociously written anti-gun ownership laws and a few high profile court cases.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, we have seen a recent trend by private corporate monopolies/ oligopolies based in heavily democratic states to deny services based on ideology. Here are a few recent examples.. Software Maker Salesforce Tells Gun Retailers to Stop Selling AR-15s, YouTube Alternatives for Gun Videos & Content Creators and Bank of America to Stop Financing Makers of Military-Style Guns. I, for one, don’t see how pissing off millions of well-armed and single-issue voters who live in gun-ownership friendly jurisdictions is a smart idea when your party has to win their votes in 2020. Then again, this is the same party which think that Joe Biden in 2020 would make the best general election candidate. Or maybe the Democrats don’t want to really win national elections. Who knows..

The large number of democratic candidates vying for the party nomination will make things even weirder than the republican field in 2016. We have all seen how small campaigns which use far less costly traditional advertising and advisers can prevail over larger “mainstream” operations. Between this and the proliferation of small donors, expect far more candidates to remain in the race even after the first major primaries are over. And the DNC and other party establishment are going to try hard, and ineffectually, to stop Bernie by hook or crook. Don’t be surprised if the 2020 democratic convention is held under even more acrimonious circumstances than 2016. And there will be anonymous leaks, just like last time. It is going to get real ugly by mid 2020.

3] Let us now turn to the less obvious, but far more consequential, trends which promise to make 2019 and 2020 the biggest shitshows in living memory. Long story short, we are due for at least three independent nasty blowbacks from Trump’s foreign and trade policies. Let us start by talking about Iran or more precisely how his stupid policy towards that country has the potential to backfire in a spectacularly disastrous manner. It is no secret that idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton, urged on by Zionists and Saudis, are trying to start a war. What they don’t understand, or are willing to understand, is that any war with Iran in addition being unwinnable would make the Iraq misadventure look like quaint in comparison. The outcome of such a war would include Iran finally developing nuclear weapons (perhaps with Chinese assistance), prolonged and massive oil shortages with resultant price hikes and many other bad long-term effects (on USA).

Moving on.. Kim Jon-un has repeatedly conveyed to USA that unless economic sanctions are at least partially removed by end of 2019, he will restart testing ICBMs. My guess is that DPRK will demonstrate an entirely solid-fueled ICBM in early 2020, unless Trump and the idiots running “foreign policy” in USA openly abandon the idea of DPRK giving up its nukes and ICBMS- because the later ain’t going to happen. Which means that sometime in 2020, Trump will have to decide on how to respond to new ICBM and perhaps even nuclear tests by DPRK. To make matters even more interesting, this escalation will likely occur around the same time as Iran is likely to finally leave the JCPOA and restart its uranium enrichment program at maximum capacity. But wait.. it gets even better, or worse, depending on your viewpoint.

As most of you know by now, Trump is involved in an unwinnable trade-war with China. And here is why.. China’s economy and manufacturing capacity is far larger than USA in real terms. While the american economy and system will implode without Chinese imports, the converse is not true. There is also no other country in the world that has as large, varied and sophisticated a manufacturing base as China. Did I mention that USA and rest of the “West” are economically stagnant, demand saturated and in overall decline. China is not going to compromise on Huawei, give in to demands of american corporations or basically change anything significant about how it works or does business. It is the USA and rest of “West” that will have to ultimately eat crow. And they will start hurting USA by screwing over Boeing and make life interesting for every american corporation which does significant amounts of business there or dependent on its exports.

Tensions with Russia could exacerbate further given the current political climate in USA and provide opportunity for yet another shitshow. Did I mention how conflicts between internet monopolies and right wingers could spill into the real world with potentially disastrous results for the former. To summarize, the rest of 2019 and whole of 2020 will almost certainly witness far larger and problematic shitshows than anything in living memory. Even worse, many of these shitshows could feed into each other to create meta-shitshows.

What do you think? Comments?

On the Inevitability of Iran Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Within 5 Years

May 26, 2019 3 comments

The idea that Iran will, one day soon, develop and test nuclear weapons is not new. Losers such as Netanyahoo have been telling anybody willing to listen that ‘Iran will develop nuclear weapons within six months’ for, at least, the last 15 years. But for some reason, this never came to pass. In this post, I will give you my analysis on why Iran did not build and test nuclear weapons for past 15 years, but is almost certain to do so within next 5 years. And yes.. the reasons for that change are linked to my choice of word to describe that opportunistic nutcase. It is also important that you understand that I have no horse in this race, and have pretty negative views about all parties involved in this slow-motion train wreck.

So let us start with the first and most obvious question- why hasn’t Iran already developed and tested nuclear weapons. They certainly spent a lot of resources building their nuclear program. Other countries who devoted similar resources to developing nukes such as Pakistan and DPRK managed to develop them within a decade of serious effort. Given the number of competent engineers Iran produces every single year, they certainly do not lack human capital. Iran also does not lack ingenious sources of Uranium ore. Economic and technology sanctions are totally ineffective at stopping nations from developing nuclear weapons- look at China, India, Pakistan and DPRK. We have to look elsewhere to understand why Iran hasn’t yet developed nukes.

Some of you might think that Israel’s use of Stuxnet or paying idiots to assassinate a few Iranian scientists stopped Iran from developing nukes. Here is the sad reality.. Stuxnet did not even slow down Iran’s uranium enrichment program. The idea that it was effective is something impotent computer geeks, blusterous Israelis and few western think-tanks want (you) to believe. Even worse, Stuxnet spurred Iranians to build bigger, more secure and more efficient centrifuges. Talk about a counterproductive effort. Similarly, a few highly publicized but minor bombings of Iranian nuclear scientists ended up giving their government the excuse to crack down on internal dissent- much more harshly than otherwise possible. Way to go, Bozos!

So why hasn’t Iran developed nukes yet? The simple answer is that, for a long time, the utility of such weapons to Iran was marginal- at best. Iran is a pretty big country, with a large population and army competent in many overt and covert forms of warfare. It dominates its middle-eastern neighbors to such an extent that no country within a couple of thousand kilometers, including Israel, has a prayer of winning a land war against it. Even an unstable Iran, such as existed in early 1980s, could hold its own against an Iraq supplied with almost unlimited amount of conventional weapons and money by the West and, curiously, USSR. More importantly, only Iran and Turkey are natural states in the Asian part of Middle-East. To make a long story short, Iran did not require nukes to defend against its neighbors.

While Iran dabbled in developing nukes in decades following the 1979 revolution, it went down that path only after the failed american occupation of Iraq in 2003. That is right.. Bush43 is the real reason Iran decided to seriously pursue development of nuclear weapons. Think about that for a second.. it was the actions of USA, not Israel or Saudi Arabia, which led to the current situation. To make matters even more.. interesting.. Iran did briefly stop its nuclear program in 2003 and offered Bush43 administration a rare chance at normalizing relations. Bush43’s administration, however, was full of delusional ‘muricans who thought they could get a better deal and effect regime change in Tehran. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? By 2005, Iran figured out that american occupation of Iraq was doomed to end in humiliation and restarted the program.

However, this time they decided to ramp up the scale and resources devoted to nukes. However, unlike DPRK, they were still non-committal. In my opinion, replacement of the ailing Kim Jong-il by his son, Kim Jon-un, after 2011 was the biggest reason for DPRK decision to build nukes and ICBMs at scale. And let us face it, KJU was correct in pursuing such capabilities. Iran, on the other hand, thought they could use their nuclear capability as a bargaining chip to normalize relations with the west. Some famous western idiots may claim it was economic sanctions which brought Iran to negotiating table in 2013, but who are we kidding.. an Iran with nukes that could hit anywhere within 2000 kms can block the strait of Hormuz without sending a single extra patrol boat or firing a single shot. If Iran had developed nukes by 2012, they would not have to sign that worthless agreement in 2015. So why didn’t they develop nukes?

The thing is.. one faction in the Iranian government was extra-greedy and thought it could make tons of money by using the nuclear program as a bargaining chip. And that was the case- at least in the short run. Of course, they did not anticipate a weak, greedy and stupid man such as Trump to be elected in 2016. And mark my words, Trump will be the reason why Iran finally ends up developing, testing and deploying nukes. The orange buffoon with a Zionist son-in-law and Bush43 administration rejects such as Pompeo and Bolton, thought that he could do what Bush43 also thought he could but failed miserably. By now, you might have noticed that I have not mentioned Gulf state monarchs such as MBS. Here is why.. hereditary rulers in that region are at best, comic sideshows, of little consequence to the larger strategic picture. They don’t matter.

Getting back to the change in situation with Iran since Trump was elected in late 2016.. the orange buffoon is apparently stupid enough to think that he can win multiple military and non-militarily conflicts by empty bluster and economic sanctions. Which is why he has antagonized many countries, from Russia and China to Venezuela and Cuba. As I wrote in a previous post, it won’t end well and Trump will be remembered as the guy who presided over second act of american imperial collapse. We have already seen the idiot and his old delusional advisers try and flounder repeatedly even against such supposedly easy ‘targets’ such as Venezuela. Trump’s hare-brained schemes have, however, exposed a fundamental flaw of the “western” system.

Any treaty or agreement between two or more countries is possible only if both parties believe there is a reasonable chance for things to work out in a half-reasonable manner. This is especially true when both parties are real countries and not fake ones such as those found in Central and South america or Gulf region. Since 1991, USA has consistently shown that it is unwilling to fulfill its obligations in any agreement or treaty. While they might have gotten away with such behavior prior to 2003-2005, things have changed a lot since then. USA is no longer the largest economy in world since 2008-2009, it makes little of global importance other than CPU chips and one family of airliners- and even that will be over within five years.

Did I mention the part where most of its citizens are now a paycheck or two from ruin and have to beg others to cover their “healthcare” costs. Or how its people would rather overdose or drink themselves to death or how its “heartland” is a poor and de-industrialized shiscape. My point is that USA is simply not in the same position it was in between 1991-2003. Its leadershit, however, still thinks it is 1997. The rest of the aging, shrinking and dying “west” is in similar shape, but still think the 1990s never ended. The net result of these senile western delusions is that they still think they can get away with behavior which they cannot. While this was not that obvious before Trump’s election in 2016, many of the decisions he has made since then have exposed the unwillingness of USA and its vassal states to stand behind agreements and treaties as well as a highly misplaced belief in their ability to influence events.

DPRK, under KJU, has demonstrated the inexorable impotence of the dying west. He has also shown that negotiating from a position of open and obvious strength is the only realistic way to deal with the senile west and its delusions of past grandeur. Until 2016, Iran had (for reasons largely linked to monetary gains) played by the decrepit West’s rules- which did not ultimately get them what they wanted. Now their leaders can no longer pretend it was a good deal. Regardless of whether there is any military action against Iran in near future, it is now almost inevitable that Iran will develop, test and deploy nukes within next five years. And guess what.. they will get help from China who would like to make things interesting for USA and its vassals.

In case you are wondering, China has done this twice before- directly in the case of Pakistan and by looking the other way in case of DPRK. While I keep mentioning a five year timeline, it is likely that the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran might happen much sooner. Regardless, my point is that the process is now inevitable even if the ongoing tensions between that country and USA and its vassals are resolved in a peaceful manner. A return to the previous order of things is now simply not possible. One way or other, Iran is going to end up developing nukes in near future.

What do you think? Comments?

NSFW Links: May 25, 2019

These links are NSFW. Will post something more intellectual tomorrow.

Amateur Cuties on Bed: May 14, 2019 – Amateur cuties lying on the bed, bottoms up.

Beach Cuties Wearing Sunglasses: May 14, 2019 – Amateur beach cuties wearing sunglasses.

Enjoy! Comments?

Categories: Uncategorized

How China Should Screw Over Trump and Gradually Destroy Boeing

May 23, 2019 4 comments

As most of you know by now, the orange buffoon and some of his old white advisers think they can “win” a trade war against China- which is darkly comic because China’s economy surpassed USA in real terms almost a decade ago. Their latest sad attempt to “win” against China involves sanctioning its telecom giants such as ZTE and Huawei. The Chinese, being no fools, have been prepared for this contingency for about five years, because the first rumblings of such american behavior were heard as early as 2012, during the Obama presidency. While they probably did not expect a total idiot such as Trump to preside over the 2nd act of american collapse, that is where we are now. Before moving on to the main topic, a quick prediction about how the Huawei ban story is likely to unfold. Long story short, USA will lose because China is not France or Japan.

While many racist idiots on the internet and american think-tanks seem to think that China might retaliate by freezing imports of rare earth elements, dumping american treasuries or stopping the production of iPhones and pretty much every other smartphone brand, I think they may use a much more interesting tactic. Destroying Boeing is a far better way to retaliate because airliners and CPU chips are pretty much the only two important non-weapon related products made in USA. And ya, China should go after Intel too- but via a different and somewhat longer route. The advantage of being a very large and competently run one-party system is that you can afford to play the long game unlike dying delusional losers who pretend to be the “most democratic and humanitarian” system in the world. Here is how they can fuck Trump over and destroy Boeing- in a manner which advances their cause and is profitable.

As you might have also heard, airliners of new Boeing 737Max series has been grounded because they used shitty software and failure-prone hardware to fix serious flaws in airframe design. It is my opinion that this ongoing fiasco has potential to break Boeing’s back and ruin its share in the international airliner market. While the company could still survive on defense contracts from USA, China should use this perfect storm of circumstances to start the process of gradually destroying Boeing as a viable maker of commercial airplanes. As luck would have it, a large number of the nearly 5,000 odd orders for that series come from East-Asia, specifically China. This leverage gives China an almost unique pathway to break Boeing’s back. Sure.. tens of thousands of Americans will lose their jobs, but guess what- who gives a shit?

Step 1: Given the stakes and desired outcome, there is no no need to rush the final outcome. China could start by demanding compensation for grounded 737Max aircraft, order more equivalent Airbus aircraft and not order any more of them– in the short term. As luck would have it, again, this is exactly what is happening right now- which sets up the next step.

Step 2: Once Boeing comes out with what it considers to be an adequate fix, China should examine it thoroughly and then declare it inadequate. They should say that it is a fragile fix for a design that is fundamentally flawed. They can then pretend to be reasonable by letting Boeing fill a small fraction (around 20% ?) of their 737MAX orders with the older and tested 737NG series.

Step 3: China should then ban 737MAX aircraft from flying in Chinese airspace (even during transit) as safety precaution. This will make it much harder for other Asian carriers, who either have tons of flights to China or overfly it, to buy them. But don’t say anything negative about, or restrict, other Boeing products like the 777 and 787 series, yet.

Step 4: Transfer bulk of orders for that airliner class to Airbus. If they express concerns about their ability to fill those orders on time, offer financial and other help to setup more assembly lines in China and Europe. This step will make it easier to reverse engineer indigenous airliners in future as well as start cutting into Boeing’s income stream.

Step 5: Boeing makes a profit on a new airplane series only after net sales finally surpass the cumulative cost of development, testing, interest on debt and building cost per airplane. Banning the 737MAX series from China achieves two things. First, it pushes Boeing to spend billions on developing a new replacement series. Secondly, loss of potential future income from that series (its main source of income in next decade) fucks up the balance sheets.

Step 6: American corporations are run by ivy-league frauds, greedy MBAs and obsessive bean-counters for the sole benefit of major shareholders. A major shortfall in the income stream translates into much lower dividends, share prices and a rapidly increasing amounts of debt- which leads to “right-sizing” aka firing people who actually work.

Step 7: Firing workers and operating with a significantly smaller, demotivated and poorly paid workforce results in poorer quality control- and we have already seen something like this occur with the 787 series. China can keep inspecting other Boeing aircraft series for poor build quality and they will get the proof they want within a year or two. This can then be used to further humiliate Boeing and enforce further bans against its other airliners.

Step 8: Some of you might wonder whether banning banning 737MAXes from East-Asian skies could truly hurt Boeing. Wouldn’t the markets in North and South America + Europe make up for China? Well.. no, because North America and Europe are saturated low-growth markets while Latin America is a pipsqueak compared to China and East Asia. Banning 737MAXes from Eastern Asia is, therefore, sufficient to initiate Boeing’s death spiral.

Step 9: Increased production of Airbus airliners in China will achieve two ends. Firstly, it will prevent any global shortage of short-to-medium haul airliners. Secondly, the experience gained building those aircraft will be useful for their indigenous airliner programs. Did I mention that it will start the process of making Boeing noncompetitive in the commercial airliner sector.

Sure.. Boeing will still be around five years from now. However it will now derive most of its revenue from selling shitty military aircraft, expensive but worthless missiles and other military paraphernalia to USA and its vassal states. A fitting end for that company.

What do you think? Comments?

Anti-Abortion Movement is Destined to Lose and Become Irrelevant: 2

May 22, 2019 21 comments

In the previous part of this series, I wrote about how the modern anti-abortion movement is going to end up like the failed, dead and forgotten temperance movement. Historically speaking, movements which originate in dying and declining regions of the world tend to almost always fail. Moreover, the extent of brain-dead religiosity necessary to believe in that bullshit is rapidly declining, even in retarded parts of the world such as USA. Both of these are, however, fairly minor in comparison to the other reasons which will doom that movement. To make matters more interesting, these reasons are far more systemic than the previously mentioned ones.

So let us enumerate the other reasons why the anti-abortion movement will become irrelevant..

In the previous part, I made a reference to how the modern anti-abortion movement’s origin in ex-slave owning, still impoverished and dying southern states would lead to its demise. But what are the mechanics of such a demise? Also, would it be a stand-alone phenomena or part of a much larger trend? Well.. let me ask you a seemingly unrelated question. Do you remember how, in the 1990s, many american idiots deluded themselves into believing that the rest of the world would become like them. I remember an era when rags-of-record such as the NYT and WP were full of opinion pieces masquerading as “news” which imagined a future where american brands and corporations such as McDonalds, KFC, Pizza Hut etc would prevail all over the world.

So how did that work out? While it might to tempting to attribute their failure in the global marketplace to american incompetence (partially true) or protectionism by other countries (also, partially true)- the meta reason for their abject failure outside USA (and vassal states like Canada or Australia) is far more basic. The product and services which they offered were simply inferior to local alternatives. I could never understand why, for example, american fast food corporations thought they had any chance in countries with decent indigenous culinary traditions- because most ‘american’ food tastes like salty flavorless crap. Similarly, it was hard to understand why Walmart and Target believed that they have any real hope in larger Asian countries.

But what does any of this have to with the anti-abortion movement meeting its demise? Let me put it this way- why would someone in Singapore, China or India eat American fast food when equivalently priced local offerings are vastly superior in taste and quality? Why would women in affluent and densely populated coastal states such as NY, CA, WA or even FL crimp their access to abortion and want to live as they reside in shitty, dying ex-slave owning states? An inferior option will always be rejected by most people unless enforced by legislation. Think about it this way.. why would anybody with more than half-a-brain want to keep living in shitty backward states? Now take that idea to the next step- who would want to move and work in those states?

One of the problems with running corporations that do stuff other than pack meat or assemble low-end automobiles is that you have to hire people with a minimum degree of competence. But what happens if the people you require to run the organisation cannot be found in a given part of the country? But surely, not everybody will desert those forsaken states and move to another part of the country. Well.. they don’t have to because even a gradual but continuous loss of talent is enough to ruin areas with an adverse demographic profile (think East Germany). More importantly, middle and upper management of corporations do not want to be associated with racist stupid white trash. Also why rich CONservatives are based in NY, CA or DC.

The gradual loss of talent and any remaining physical manifestations of success leads to the next reason why that movement is doomed. Almost nobody wants to be associated with repulsive losers and their ideologies. Ever wondered why most people today don’t want to identify as Nazis or hood-wearing racists? Remember that Nazism was once popular in many countries outside pre-WW2 Germany, including USA. The same is true for racists movements such as KKK. Long story short, those movements are not popular today because they lost (and not because of moral revulsion). The most ardent supporters of anti-abortion movement are on the losing side of history- for a number of social, cultural and economic trends beyond their control.

So let us talk about those reasons. While women have been aborting since the beginning of time, modern methods of abortion started coming into existence around the beginning of 20th century, though some came online as late the 1980s. Some might have noticed that this era coincidences with gaining the right to vote and entry of women into the workplace. There is also a reason that most countries legalized abortion between 1950s and 1970s. Hint: it is about women entering and staying in the workplace in ever larger numbers and irreversible breakdown of CONservative “family values”. The single biggest factor which drove the legalization of abortion is the need for Capitalism to extract an every increasing amount of value from workers. I cannot resist pointing out the irony of CONservatives decrying one of the major routes for expansion of Capitalism in 20th century.

Which brings me to another related reason for inevitable failure of the anti-abortion movement- an irreversible increase in Female agency. A lot of anti-abortion morons believe they have far more female support than they have in reality. See.. a significant minority of women might pretend to support the anti-abortion movement to look more virtuous, but it is just an empty display of virtue. Think of how Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare dozens of time only because they knew that it would be successfully vetoed. The vast majority of women who claim to support the anti-abortion movement will drop their support the moment it becomes obvious that such a measure might pass- even in shitholes such as Alabama and Georgia.

And don’t forget.. traditionally male-dominated jobs such as those in large factories, mines or involving hard physical work now constitute a minority of jobs. Now add in the fact that women can pick and choose the guy they want to sleep with and can make decent money without being married etc. Almost no woman below a certain age has any interest in changing the status quo- regardless of the party she voted for in last election. There is a reason why the most vocal female opponents of abortion rights are post-menopausal and osteoporotic white, black or hispanic women. The other supporters of the anti-abortion movement are obese and impotent southern white men, a group that is in irreversible decline and not especially popular. The remaining supporters of that doomed movement include mostly white young male losers who talk about traditional family values, but lack the job or looks to get women to have sex with them.

In other words, none of the groups who support the anti-abortion movement are ascendant. But there is one more reason why the anti-abortion movement is doomed to failure. Women of reproductive age are far more sympathetic than embryos and fetuses. Just wait till any of these stupid laws results in the death of a moderately photogenic (and white) woman with ectopic pregnancy, infections spreading to fetus, pre-eclampsia, infections due to botched attempts at abortions. You think that media goes overboard promoting the victims of mass shootings? You haven’t seen anything yet. Also, social media will amplify such tragedies in ways that stupid old southern losers cannot defend. Did I mention that every internet monopoly is run and staffed by people with pro-choice views. Of course, the anti-abortion losers are too delusional and stupid to understand how their actions will end up speeding the final public demise of that movement.

What do you think? Comments?

David Benioff and Daniel Weiss Screwed HBO and Their Own Careers

May 19, 2019 8 comments

By now most of you might have heard that the long-running HBO series ‘Game of Thrones’ (GOT) ended in a manner that was highly unsatisfactory for most viewers and very predictable due to online spoilers posted over the last few weeks. While I have never been a fan of fictional worlds, from LOTR and Star Wars to Star Trek, I find them to be an interesting way of gauging the prevailing Zeitgeist. For example, most movies made and released during the 1980s were often unusually optimistic. Similarly, 1990s movies tried to become increasingly realistic- especially towards the end of that decade. Superhero movie and other escapist crap started becoming dominant after 9/11, and the past decade has seen an endless number of mindless reboots and poorly executed CGI-heavy crap. Art tends to mirror the era in which it is made.

So where does the 7th and 8th season of GOT fit into all of this? Well.. for starters, I never found that show to be particularly engaging. While its overall quality of cinematography, production values and CGI was very good- the story was rather insipid. See.. good production values and CGI do not make a good, memorable or influential movie- as we all know by watching the Hobbit Trilogy, every Star Wars movie released after 1980s, every Jurassic park movie other than the original etc. A movie with a good story and mediocre cinematography will always be far longer lived and influential than one which looks good but lacks a good story. Don’t believe me.. what are your memories about Avatar, the Hobbit Trilogy, the more recent reboots of Spiderman, Superman , Star Trek, Blade Runner etc.

Getting back to GOT, let me first tell you why I think it became successful in the first place. Here is a clue.. even though it was set in a fantasy medieval-style world, the characters thought and behaved in a manner identical to their 21st century viewers. In other words, GOT was just a slickly filmed version of a decent MMORPG. But what made the story of GOT fundamentally weak and insipid- even before the 7th and 8th seasons? To understand that, one has to go into what separates a good story from an insipid or bad one. The simple, if somewhat tasteless, answer is that all good stories are about fulfilling the wishes and desires of its audience while exhibiting reasonable internal consistency. That is why so many stories end with “they lived happily ever after”, “the good guys or girls won”, “good triumphs over evil” etc. Do you have any?

Stories based in nihilism, amorality, hopelessness etc are fundamentally weak even if the character development and writing quality is superb. While they may eventually end up being considered as “great” works by an effete elite, but such stories will never be truly popular. The book series that the show was based on was.. for the lack of better words.. meandering, unfocused and nihilistic. So why did it succeed, at least initially? The simple answer is that its screenplay was written to be even more relatable for a 21st century audience and the story was given a definite and pronounced arc. But the second, and more important, reason was its timing.

GOT came out in 2011, which happened to the perfect time for a show based in cosplay and neoliberal nihilism. As some of you remember cosplay became big in North American only after 2005, and the global financial crisis occurred in late 2008. But how can certain forms of escapism and a still ongoing socio-economic crisis make a TV show, containing allusions to both, so successful? Well.. tell me something, what did viewers discuss about after each episode was aired and what did they anticipate in the next one? In case you forgot, it was always about who was murdered, betrayed, tortured, mutilated in each episode and how sudden or unexpected it was. Isn’t this eerily like the lonely and precarious lives and careers of most people in North American and increasingly the “West”? You know.. the prevailing Zeitgeist.

Now that we have talked about why that show became popular in the first place, let us now focus on how and why David Benioff and Daniel Weiss (henceforth referred to as Dumb and Dumber) killed the proverbial goose which laid golden eggs.

1] While I would prefer to not say it, there is a strong connection between the ethno-religious identity of David Benioff and Daniel Weiss and how they screwed up this project. And no.. I am not accusing them of being unusually greedy or covetous. It comes down to the hubris of semi-competent people. Confused? See.. you might have noticed that a particular ethno-religious group is rather well represented in the entertainment industry. But why? Is it because they are competent or is it because of social connections. Well.. look at the consistently high rate of failures in that sector. Do you think that competent people who know what they doing could fail so often? Does your doctor or surgeon fail at those rates? Does the engineer who designs your car or helps build a bridge fail as often as those who make movies or TV shows?

The reality is that making movies, TV shows, music etc which are financially successful has little to do with technical competence and much more to do with accidentally stumbling on the Zeitgeist and also knowing the right people to fund your idea. In other words, dumb luck and social connections. But what happens once you succeed? This is where Hubris starts becoming an issue and liability. See.. most people, especially marginally clever ones, start deluding themselves into believing that they have some sort of Midas touch- because the alternative is too painful for them to accept. They start acting as if every stupid idea they ever had will lead to their next hit. More problematically, they start believing themselves to be far more competent than they are.

Dumb and Dumber are probably good showrunners with a decent ability to write screenplays based on existing material. Perhaps they also have a good team who does a pretty good job casting actors, hiring good technical help etc. But they are not good at writing original material. That is why the quality of that show started going doing after the 6th season. But why not after the 5th season- which is as far as the original book series went. Well.. it comes down to the lack of major plot development in the 6th season. Dumb and Dumber went on autopilot and it appeared to work, for a time. Things started to fall apart in 7th season because that is when they went past the point where the need for plot development started eclipsing their abilities. That is when the plot and story arc first started meandering and the tropes started to increasingly resemble those in mainstream movies and TV shows.

2] This is where HBO should have started putting its foot down, but they didn’t for two reasons. Firstly, the ratings were still reasonably good and product deterioration was not yet a PR disaster. The second reason, in my opinion, is that people from any given racial or ethno-religious group, will usually give a much wider berth to those they identify with than those they don’t. There is a reason why white cops will shoot and kill black men holding cell phones but will patiently and carefully arrest white men who have murdered more than a dozen people. In the entertainment industry, belonging to a certain ethno-religious group translates into being allowed to make far bigger mistakes than those who do not belong to said group. That is why Dumb and Dumber were never seriously challenged by HBO about the rapidly declining quality of their product.

Which led to ‘normalization of deviance’ aka progressive institutional failure. See.. under normal circumstances a series of tense discussions with HBO after the 7th season should have reined in their incompetence. But nothing like that ever happened and that is how they made the abortion known as Season 8. But why was it so much worse that the previous season? Once again, for two reasons. First, they went all Michael Bay to cover up the lack of even a mediocre underlying story. Have a look at the amount of CGI used in Season 8 versus any previous one. Excessive use of CGI = lack of compelling story or narrative. But it gets worse. They made the mistake, born of their incompetence as writers of original material, of using mainstream movie and TV tropes in a show which was based on not using them. To make matters even worse, they did not even bother to reconcile their new story arcs and character motivations with their previous seasons.

3] However, the single biggest mistake they made in season 8 was due to factors beyond their control. They missed the change in Zeitgeist since Nov 8, 2016. Prior to that date, letting an incompetent or barely competent white guy “win” in that show or even live at the end was not suicidal. However, doing so after that date has become highly problematic, for rather obvious reasons. As much as it pains me to say this, the only popular ending to that show would have required a woman (the most ruthless one) to “win” that throne. But Dumb and Dumber thought that they could get way with an ending in which the two most powerful and ruthless women characters were killed. Maybe Dumb and Dumber believed in their own bullshit to such a degree that they completely overlooked this major shift in the Zeitgeist.

In my opinion, this mistake (which few want to openly acknowledge) more than any other is going to be remembered as the most problematic. While I am not an SJW, I am also not stupid enough to ignore the change in tastes and expectations of other people. The fallout of Season 8 is going to be especially bad for HBO, given that it was recently acquired by the parasitic bean-counters at AT&T. Between being associated with such public failures, acquisition by AT&T and competition from Netflix- things don’t look bright for HBO. George R. R. Martin’s writing career is the second casualty of this fuck up. Regardless of what he has written before, he will be forever tainted by the failure of Season 8, unless he decides to publicly dissociate himself from the TV show.

The careers of Dumb and Dumber will also take a hit, though it may be a bit delayed. People who invests tons of money into making movies or TV shows usually don’t want to employ people who are seen as the principal reason for the humiliating demise of a profitable flagship franchise. Then again.. Dumb and Dumber might know the right people.

What do you think? Comments?

Anti-Abortion Movement is Destined to Lose and Become Irrelevant: 1

May 18, 2019 15 comments

A few months ago, I wrote a post about how the democratic party obsession with ‘gun control’ could cost them during the 2020 election cycle. It now seems that the republican party wants to one-up them by passing a series of hilariously bad anti-abortion laws in a few shithole.. I mean southern.. states. It has long been my belief that real differences between the democratic and republican party are largely restricted to socio-cultural issues such as gun and abortion rights. As many of you know, I have long held the position that trying to restrict or eliminate gun rights is not a winning strategy apart from 2-3 coastal states. We will now go into the many reasons why even attempting to pass laws which restrict the right to abortion is an even more stupid idea.

The temperance movement is an interesting, if peculiar, historical analogue to the modern anti-abortion movement. For those of you who aren’t interested in history, it was a big movement in the late 19th-early 20th century USA centered around banning the sale and consumption of alcohol. Its main promoters were male religious nutcases and proto-feminists (talk about weird alliances). Anyway, their campaign ultimately led to Prohibition in 1919 which led to a whole lot of unintended and highly counterproductive secondary consequences which then led to its subsequent repeal in 1933. So what did the decade (or so) of Prohibition lead to, other than the abject humiliation and almost total destruction of that movement. There is a reason why the only place most people have read about the Temperance movement is in history books.

Much of the night life we take for granted today is the result of the defiant public response to that futile and yes.. racist.. movement. Prior to Prohibition pushing public drinking underground for a decade, supposedly respectable women did not go to bars. The proliferation of speakeasies during prohibition changed drinking culture irreversibly and made it a cool activity which women started participating in rapidly increasing numbers. Also, previously most drinking establishments in USA served little other than a few popular types of beverages and greasy food. This changed after women started frequenting bars. Picking up women who weren’t prostitutes in a bar became possible only after bars became a cool place for women to visit. To make a long story short, it ended up normalizing and glamorizing drinking in ways previously considered impossible.

So let us now talk about why the modern anti-abortion movement is similar to the utterly failed and discredited temperance movement. The most obvious similarities between them are that they never enjoyed majority support and were dominated by loud zealots with racist/ nativist belief systems. But the similarities run far deeper. Both movements were fuelled by people who claimed to be solving some real world problem but were in fact about trying to control the lives of others and ruining their happiness. Have a look at the faces and read about personalities of people who pushed Prohibition. Did you notice a distinctive lack of physically attractive or intellectually gifted people among its ranks? Ever wonder why that was the case? Also, why didn’t most countries with similar levels of alcohol consumption never attempt Prohibition?

Now tell me something. Have you noticed that the anti-abortion types in USA are almost always obese older white men and post-menopausal white women living in ex-slavery southern states, old and fat black and Hispanic women and a small number of losers aka traditional conservative men? Some of you might counter my characterization by telling me about a couple of attractive young women who claim to be anti-abortion.. and you know what, I am sure they exist. However, it is undeniable that the anti-abortion movement derives most of its support from pudgy, sweaty, pre-diabetic, post-fertile men and women living in shithole.. I mean southern.. states. But why is that so? Why don’t you find anybody who looks half-attractive or has more than half a brain support the anti-abortion movement? And why is the anti-abortion movement so weak outside the heart of darkness.. I mean southern states? Also, why is it so weak outside USA?

The first obvious clue that the modern anti-abortion movement is doomed therefore comes from who supports it and who doesn’t. Let me put that in a different way, how many of you want to move to Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri etc? If not, why not? Well.. the simple answer is that flyover states (especially in the south) are dying. There are no well paying jobs with decent future prospects in those places. Also, those parts of the country also have rapidly deteriorating infrastructure and are generally shitty places to live in- at many levels. Historically, movements whose largest support base exists in declining and dying populations/ regions tend to end up as failures. Now compare the anti-abortion movement to the popularity of yoga studios among women- guess which is on an inexorable decline and which one is booming.

The second clue that the modern anti-abortion movement has no future comes from its very limited geographical spread. Let me explain.. how many developed or even developing countries outside USA have an anti-abortion movement of any significance. Why not? Well.. as I mentioned in a post from almost a year ago- the CONservative and reactionary elements within many nations (other than USA) got preferentially culled in WW1 and WW2. Let me rephrase that, only populations with unusually high levels of belief in traditional religions are capable of supporting the anti-abortion movement. Interest and belief in traditional religion has declined sharply over past two decades and this trend is even more marked in the younger generations. Ever met a non- or low-religious person who strongly supports the anti-abortion movement? Me neither..

Since we are at almost a thousand words, I will leave the remainder of my analysis for the next and hopefully last part of this short series. In case you are wondering, it will be about how the losers in anti-abortion movement lack the mental capacity to appreciate the magnitude of the multiple public relations disasters they are walking into. Then again, those idiots deserve it.

What do you think? Comments?