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2019 and 2020 Will be Much Bigger Shitshows than 2015 and 2016

As regular readers know, I often make predictions on a number of topics which later turn out to be right (or pretty close) with a high rate of success. More importantly, I am able to accurately identify the underlying dynamics, trends and forces responsible for the ultimate outcomes. Now let me make another seemingly obvious prediction, but with far greater insight and details than possible for quacks.. I mean credentialed “experts”. My prediction is that 2019 and 2020 will be far larger and more problematic shitshows than 2015 and 2016. Some of you (MikeCA?) might argue that every day since the election of Trump has been a shitshow.. and that is technically sorta true. But if you think that 2017 and 2018 were shitshows, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

There are many reasons why this period of 1.5 years will be an epic meta-shitshow of the likes we haven’t witnessed in living memory. However, it is not simply the sheer number or magnitude of individual shitshows that will make this period memorable, but how one shitshow will feed into another and so on.. you know, synergy. But before we go there, let us talk about why 2015 and 2016 marked the beginning of our current era of shitshows. It all began with an orange Buffoon riding down a gaudy escalator alongside a trophy wife with a face pumped full of cosmetic Botox. Initially it seemed that his campaign for the republican presidential nomination was just another publicity stunt to obtain a larger payout from the reality show in which he was starring.

However it became obvious to me within 4-6 weeks that his outrageous and colorful persona had far more public support than effete Washington DC ‘insiders’ realized. And yes.. I never changed my opinion on that issue and turned out be right. And ya.. I also predicted he would win against Hillary in early 2016, even at times when even the most radical presstitues.. I mean journalists.. thought that HRC might somehow prevail against him on election day. I also explored the real reasons why HRC would lose to that buffoon– before the election took place. FYI- majority of my accurate predictions have been about issues and topics other than Trump. But enough about the orange buffoon. Let us now talk about Brexit- more precisely, why the ‘remain’ side lost.

MSM news outlets in that rapidly decaying country (UK) want you to believe that Brexit was due to the stupidity of poorly educated people in that country. However a simple look at the geography of that vote tells you all you need about Brexit. Long story short, post-2008 austerity measures in UK hit parts of the country that are not London pretty hard. People who live in those regions, aka most of that country, got progressively disillusioned with the shitty status quo. They expressed their discontent by voting against something which stood as a placeholder for the widely reviled status quo. You know.. just like people in the Mid-West finally got tired of Obama’s 8-year long lie about “Hope and Change” voted for Trump over the symbol of continuity aka HRC.

But both these shocks to the Establishment, their aftermath and colorful rhetoric accompanying both those changes are nothing compared to what we will witness in 2019 and 2020. While I will restrict my predictions to USA, things are also likely to get interesting in other parts of the world- maybe a bit too interesting. But before we go to the list, a word of caution. The most obvious reasons are unlikely to be the most consequential. The less glamorous reasons, further down the list, carry far more weight than the shiny but superficial ones which are obvious. So let us start by listing them in order of apparent obviousness.

1] Ever since Trump won the republican nomination in mid-2016, democratic establishment and deep state types have been trying to find enough dirt to stop his victory in the 2016 presidential election (which they failed) or impeach him. As things stand today, they have not uncovered anything more scandalous than Trump getting his disgraced lawyer to pay hush money to two women he had sex with while married to his current wife. While this revelation does provide fodder for supermarket tabloids, it is totally unsurprising and in line with Trump’s past behavior. More importantly, the Mueller investigation has not uncovered evidence of “collusion” between Trump and Russia or Putin. Nor has it shown any definitive evidence for obstruction of justice by Trump. And I know MikeCA will have something to say about my characterization of that report.

But these severe setbacks have not stopped an increasing number of democrats from demanding his impeachment, because face it.. they always knew he was “guilty” of something impeachable. Today, the patron saint of pro-impeachment brigade aka Robert Mueller came out and all but openly encouraged democrats to start the impeachment process, even though his report does not contain enough evidence to prosecute Trump for either “collusion” or obstruction of justice. And ya.. I am aware of the legalese bullshit about not being able to exonerate him- but let us get real, people are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. It also helps to be rich and white, but that is a topic for another post. My prediction is that democrats will initiate pre-impeachment proceedings against Trump, irrespective of potential negative effects it might have on their electoral prospects in 2020. But how does this translate into a nasty shitshow?

Well.. for a few reasons. Firstly, it is unlikely Trump will be impeached, tried and made to resign before November 3, 2020. Secondly, the pre-impeachment investigation is going to be long and highly contentious. It will also overshadow democratic primaries and possibly the presidential election to such an extent that other issues will be effectively sidelined. So be prepared for a democratic primary in which candidates offer endless paeans to bipartisanship, civility in politics, reestablishing “norms” and impeaching Trump at the expense of all the other stuff most voters in the general election actually care about. You know.. stuff like antitrust action against various monopolies and oligopolies, medicare for all, doing something about student debt etc. Think of HRCs “what will the children think” 2016 campaign on steroids. But in some ways, this will be smallest shitshow of them all.

2] Stupid old losers who constitute a majority of democratic primary voters in large states seem to be enamored by “gun control” aka banning civilian ownership of guns. Given that everyone in the packed clown car of democratic candidates is expected to appeal to them, one should expect increasingly shrill and strident anti-gun ownership rhetoric. While appealing to these losers might help one win the primary and a few coastal states in general, it is almost guaranteed to backfire in swing states- especially those with large rural and semi-urban populations. Now add in a few random mass shootings (almost inevitable?) between now and Nov 3, 2020 and you can imagine how nutty this could get. Expect the Democratic house to pass one or more atrociously written anti-gun ownership laws and a few high profile court cases.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, we have seen a recent trend by private corporate monopolies/ oligopolies based in heavily democratic states to deny services based on ideology. Here are a few recent examples.. Software Maker Salesforce Tells Gun Retailers to Stop Selling AR-15s, YouTube Alternatives for Gun Videos & Content Creators and Bank of America to Stop Financing Makers of Military-Style Guns. I, for one, don’t see how pissing off millions of well-armed and single-issue voters who live in gun-ownership friendly jurisdictions is a smart idea when your party has to win their votes in 2020. Then again, this is the same party which think that Joe Biden in 2020 would make the best general election candidate. Or maybe the Democrats don’t want to really win national elections. Who knows..

The large number of democratic candidates vying for the party nomination will make things even weirder than the republican field in 2016. We have all seen how small campaigns which use far less costly traditional advertising and advisers can prevail over larger “mainstream” operations. Between this and the proliferation of small donors, expect far more candidates to remain in the race even after the first major primaries are over. And the DNC and other party establishment are going to try hard, and ineffectually, to stop Bernie by hook or crook. Don’t be surprised if the 2020 democratic convention is held under even more acrimonious circumstances than 2016. And there will be anonymous leaks, just like last time. It is going to get real ugly by mid 2020.

3] Let us now turn to the less obvious, but far more consequential, trends which promise to make 2019 and 2020 the biggest shitshows in living memory. Long story short, we are due for at least three independent nasty blowbacks from Trump’s foreign and trade policies. Let us start by talking about Iran or more precisely how his stupid policy towards that country has the potential to backfire in a spectacularly disastrous manner. It is no secret that idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton, urged on by Zionists and Saudis, are trying to start a war. What they don’t understand, or are willing to understand, is that any war with Iran in addition being unwinnable would make the Iraq misadventure look like quaint in comparison. The outcome of such a war would include Iran finally developing nuclear weapons (perhaps with Chinese assistance), prolonged and massive oil shortages with resultant price hikes and many other bad long-term effects (on USA).

Moving on.. Kim Jon-un has repeatedly conveyed to USA that unless economic sanctions are at least partially removed by end of 2019, he will restart testing ICBMs. My guess is that DPRK will demonstrate an entirely solid-fueled ICBM in early 2020, unless Trump and the idiots running “foreign policy” in USA openly abandon the idea of DPRK giving up its nukes and ICBMS- because the later ain’t going to happen. Which means that sometime in 2020, Trump will have to decide on how to respond to new ICBM and perhaps even nuclear tests by DPRK. To make matters even more interesting, this escalation will likely occur around the same time as Iran is likely to finally leave the JCPOA and restart its uranium enrichment program at maximum capacity. But wait.. it gets even better, or worse, depending on your viewpoint.

As most of you know by now, Trump is involved in an unwinnable trade-war with China. And here is why.. China’s economy and manufacturing capacity is far larger than USA in real terms. While the american economy and system will implode without Chinese imports, the converse is not true. There is also no other country in the world that has as large, varied and sophisticated a manufacturing base as China. Did I mention that USA and rest of the “West” are economically stagnant, demand saturated and in overall decline. China is not going to compromise on Huawei, give in to demands of american corporations or basically change anything significant about how it works or does business. It is the USA and rest of “West” that will have to ultimately eat crow. And they will start hurting USA by screwing over Boeing and make life interesting for every american corporation which does significant amounts of business there or dependent on its exports.

Tensions with Russia could exacerbate further given the current political climate in USA and provide opportunity for yet another shitshow. Did I mention how conflicts between internet monopolies and right wingers could spill into the real world with potentially disastrous results for the former. To summarize, the rest of 2019 and whole of 2020 will almost certainly witness far larger and problematic shitshows than anything in living memory. Even worse, many of these shitshows could feed into each other to create meta-shitshows.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. P Ray
    May 30, 2019 at 11:54 pm

    I’m simply glad that my prediction of “conflict between the great powers within 5 years” is coming true.
    I hate to be wrong.

  2. doldrom
    May 31, 2019 at 3:55 am

    You forgot the end of the debt super-cycle and by many measures the most overvalued stock market ever, not to mention that those stocks are collateral for the largest pile of bonds ever.

  3. doldrom
    May 31, 2019 at 3:59 am

    Ah. Citrinocristata, a sub-species of the lesser sulphur-crested cockatoo (Cacatua sulphurea)

  4. doldrom
    May 31, 2019 at 4:04 am

    Bolton and Pompeo are at their best when alluding to a truly viable alternative administration in Iran (MEK — Mojahedin-e Khalq) or Venezuela (One Guaidó — Who?)

  5. Jack Donovan
    May 31, 2019 at 12:49 pm

    Well, I’m gonna vote for Joseph Biden, a real man. A man’s man. He will give us that war we want in syria with lots and lots of dead non-white babies. He is basically Hillary with a penis and I won’t look like a cuck when voting for him. In fact, our glorious leader, Dickie Spencer is now an avowed Democrat. Just remember, “southern gentleman”–the democrats are the party of the KKK. I’m not a white nationalist, but, gee, I do support White Supremacy. Joe is my bro!!!

    See Hail !!!

    14 88 !!!

    Clam Chowder, errr white powder, uh power…

  6. May 31, 2019 at 7:31 pm

    Throw in rapidly escalating climate change disasters (corn crop to be especially bad this year) and the potential of a financial crash that will make 2008 seem mild (exacerbated by the trade war) and the possibly to the situation on the southern border turning into a real crisis and I’d say it’s time to get the popcorn fired up and try to keep your head down.

    • Yusef
      June 1, 2019 at 5:42 pm

      That’s an interesting comment. Where I live we’ve seen a remarkable increase in the price of many vegetables, e.g. green cabbage, carrots, onions. This has been in the range of 50% and is recent. (The price of these vegetables was stable for many, many years.) No one I know has commented on this, but it strikes me as significant, and I have speculated it is due to the fires and hot weather in California in 2018. This is scary stuff.

  7. Rum
    May 31, 2019 at 7:34 pm

    There is a great scene in the HBO series “Rome” where the Emperor Gaius Julius Cesar grants pardon to 2 of his soldiers because, he concludes, after seeing what they had accomplished (and survived)… (good and bad), that they must have had the support of powerful gods. And HE did not want be the one to start making enemies of that that sort. So he promoted them both instead of killing them..

    • P Ray
      June 1, 2019 at 9:24 am

      That’s an amazing series, I recommend it highly, and it is an absolute travesty that a third season never happened.

    • Elagabalus
      June 2, 2019 at 1:03 am

      Hate to be that guy but Caesar was never emperor. Sure, he was hailed ‘imperator’ on the field by his troops but officially he was the dictator, which was the highest position in republican Rome – although it was supposed to temporary in case of emergencies but he had it for life and it killed him.
      Were the two men he pardoned – Brutus and Cassius? I’m sorry to say but his clemency did bugger-all for him and Rome as they were major players in the conspiracy that ended his life and plunged Rome back into civil war.
      His great-nephew did not make the same mistakes that Caesar made and he is commonly known as the first emperor but to all he was just ‘princeps’.
      HBO’s Rome was not that good a series.

  8. Conscience Constituent
    June 3, 2019 at 6:17 am

    Yo mate,remember when you wrote that India was going to nuke Pakistan?
    Remember how dumb that sounded?
    Yeah me too,anyway today i would like to ask you to write about Mark Blyth,economics professor and renowned scottish chav.

    What do you think of this chav?


    Are you referring to what I said about the situation in late February? Link – https://dissention.wordpress.com/2019/02/27/quick-thoughts-on-the-current-situation-between-indian-and-pakistan/

    Guess what.. I stand by my assessment of how things might have gone off the rails. They did not, and this is a good thing- but don’t forget that wars often start for the most stupid reasons and then gain a life of their own.

  9. plus d'un cafard
    July 6, 2019 at 12:41 pm

    If democrats wanted to go all out against Trump, they would have exposed what kind of characters Roy Cohn, Joseph Weichselbaum or Ghislaine Maxwell are, and their relationship with Trump. Or what he was doing on Epstein little black book.

    Establishment democrats and coastal liberals are not that smart or competent. Ivy league education = conformity and timidness, not creativity and boldness.

    “Rightists” do not have the same psychology as leftists. When they hear “racist bigot” they hear (rightly) the weak (and often vicious) whining against the strong. They do not care if Trump has extra-marital affairs. With a wink to each other, they understand “damn, he’s alpha” and laugh at the neo-puritan Left. Trump rode partly on the stereotype of the flawed but strong and honest hero, and archetype loved on the Right.

    That lion-king image could easily be tarnished by fucking early teens, and given what we know from pedophile networks today, it shouldn’t be hard to implant the idea that he might have done a few 5 year-olds. Pedo stuff activates the sheep dog reflex in rightists like nothing else. The potential for drug doing (Weichselbaum) also can have an effect on the Right’s opinon. Drugs, as a rule, do not project strength and health.

    Did the people writing the script for the mainstream media try any of this? No, on the contrary, they went for the Russia collusion stuff, which stood on little, and they probably knew it. Do they want Trump gone? I guess not.

  1. July 2, 2019 at 6:08 pm
  2. July 24, 2019 at 8:36 pm

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