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Some Thoughts on How a War Between Iran and ‘USA’ Might Unfold

In a fresh round of escalation today, the orange buffoon unveiled another bunch of meaningless “sanctions” against Iran. While it is still not certain that the buffoon-in-chief is delusional enough to actually start a war with Iran, pressure from people who have promised him tons of money etc after his term is over (such as that idiot in SA and his equivalent in UAE), pleadings of Zionists (including his son-in-law) in combination with chicken-hawks such as Bolt-on and Pompous-Idiot is likely to result in a war with Iran in the near future. While it is far more desirable, for everyone, that such a war does not start in the first place- it increasingly looks like we will get there, one way or the other. Notice that I said ‘war’ rather than ‘conflict’, ‘skirmish’. You will soon see why.

But before we go there, a quick geography and history lesson. Iran isn’t a small country. It has about 1/5th the area of lower 48 and about 1/4th the population of USA. To make matters more interesting, it is one the only three long-standing nation states in Middle-East, the others being Turkey and Egypt. There has been a Persian state of some sort covering most of modern-day Iran for over 2,500 years. Compare that to modern cockatrice states such as Iraq, SA, other Gulf Sunni emirates and even modern-day Syria. Did I mention that Persians and are not Arabs. Oh.. and also Iran was able to withstand the 8-year war with Iraq (and all states which supported the former) during the 1980s. Also unlike arab neighboring countries they make almost every single weapon system they use. Sounds a bit like DPRK, doesn’t it?

So let us start with the predictions..

1] Iran is not going to wait for Trump to change his mind or finish his presidential term. It will keep ratcheting up the tension, because they have nothing to gain by playing the waiting game. Expect more mysterious fires, explosions and mishaps at petroleum and petrochemical facilities in SA and other gulf Sunni emirates. They understand that west-European countries are spineless decaying entities who will not openly defy the also terminally declining USA. The best way to separate west-Europeans and other american catamites from USA is to cut off the former from being able access all middle-eastern oil. Iranians fully expect the USA to attack it, sooner than later- and they want prefer it sooner than later.

2] The ideal situation, as far as Iran is concerned, is for USA to attack it without significant preparation (troops on ground) and not expect a serious response. But once they do attack Iran, expect it to systematically target and destroy Saudi and UAE ports, oil storage installations, pipelines, desalination plants, brine-pumping plants etc. Iran wants to cause enough damage to shut down the oil output of those countries for at least a few months. And they have enough cruise and ballistic missiles with the requisite range and accuracy to pull that off. To be clear, I expect them to primarily use anti-shipping missiles (boat and land launched) to target structures on or near the shore. Have a look at a map of the area and compare it to the range of various short and medium range missiles possessed by Iran, in abundance.

3] To make matters more interesting, they will also send large number of irregular soldiers and militias into Iraq and Afghanistan to attack american military facilities, but also civilians and spread chaos in those countries. Expect Iranian irregulars to conduct a lot of bombings of oil infrastructure, assassinations of local american-stooges and create general mayhem in those countries. They might go especially hard on the Kurds parts of Iraq (who they see as american collaborators) and engineer a refugee crisis. The motives here are two-fold. Disrupt oil production and export from Iraq. Secondly, greatly increase the size and complexity of battlefield for USA.

4] Doing 2 and 3, almost simultaneously is possible for Iran and achieves a few synergistic objectives. Wrecking petroleum production and transport facilities all across the middle-east quickly cuts the world’s supply of crude oil etc by about 30-40%. More importantly it delivers an especially nasty blow to west-European countries, Japan, South Korea, India and other wannabe american catamites. Do you think countries like France, Germany, Japan and India can keep running properly if 60-80% of their oil supplies just disappear for at least a few months? Furthermore, USA is now faced with the prospect of fighting locals and militias in at least three countries in addition to dealing with a massive exodus of expat workers from those countries and more refugees from Iraq. And it gets even better.

5] Imagine what will happen to global trade, commerce and the stock market of many countries if such a large percentage of oil supply suddenly vanishes and the price for remaining supplies go up by 400-800 %? Oh.. and you cannot normalize the supply unless Iran is defeated (very hard, if not outright impossible) or peace is reestablished in that region. Do you think Trump and the Zionists will remain popular in USA if oil cost 20-30 bucks per gallon? Some of you might say- doesn’t USA have enough military might to prevent this outcome? Won’t they be able to blow Iranian boats out of the water or something like that? Well.. have a look at distances involved. Iran could do most of this by using nothing more fancy than civilian vehicles to transport most of the troops and missiles necessary.

6] It goes without saying that such a large-scale but unconventional attack across neighboring countries would cause mass panic and result in the abrupt departure of many ruling families- in addition to yet another refugee crisis. The perceived inability of USA to protect the interests of their local stooges will further damage whatever residual credibility it still has in that region. To summarize, given available options and capabilities, Iran is likely to rapidly exacerbate war with USA, by going after its oil-producing client states in that region.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. Uri Katsav
    June 25, 2019 at 12:53 am

    Tha’s it! Iran is now on maximum counter-pressure mode. They won’t wait until Trump is gone, but Iranians will make him go. And please, forget those fantasies about having large aerial battles between American Air Force and Iran’s S-300 or whatever available system the Persians have. Iran won’t engage in such a scenario because it will loose, Iranian Army will fight a very asymetrical warfare of maximum impact. Oh, and don’t forget Hezbollah is just heavy cocked and loaded to evaporize Israel for good!

  2. doldrom
    June 25, 2019 at 6:36 am

    Iran has as much confirmed publicly the scenario you are sketching. They are not threatening transit in the Hormuz, but are threatening mayhem in oil producing facilities (not just those feeding Persian Gulf tanker traffic) and across the Middle East. Disrupting facilities (sabotage, etc) is much easier than conquering land and winning battles: breaking shit is assymetrically easier than defending or repairing it.
    What would be the presumable outcome of $800/barrel oil? Next to severe economic impacts, and therefore political crisis, it would take out the financial system. The financial system is supported by recirculating of dollar trade surpluses and peter-dollars, and sports a house of cards in which most of the collateral is others’ liabilities. The system is much much bigger than any underlying real collateral (and global GNP), and the kind of disruption Iran could bring about would probably be akin to all 37 of the loan sharks you pledged your car to as collateral showing up at the same time, and duking it out for some share of the car, aware that they will get the hatchet if they cannot return the collateral to their organizations.

    • P Ray
      June 25, 2019 at 11:00 am

      Much earlier Advocatus had sketched out how, because society is so intertwined, people dissatisfied with the system can do a great deal of harm – with or without firearms – . This is a development with nation-states instead.

      Perhaps more countries will pay protection money for their oil stations to be left alone. But of course, without telling anyone that is happening. Strong people don’t like to be seen paying if they can help it.

  3. June 25, 2019 at 2:26 pm

    You forgot to mention that Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon will likely reign down heavy missile fire upon Israel, and it’s possible that Syria and the Iraqi Shia might also enter the fray against the Americans in that country, seeing an opportunity to expel U.S. troops from both countries once and for all. It’s also likely Russia will supply the Iranians with weapons to keep the U.S. bogged down so it can’t be aggressive on the Russian border. Worst case scenario, however, is that such an attack eventually triggers a nuclear exchange–which of course is game over for all of us.

  4. Shlomo Goldsteinberg
    June 26, 2019 at 4:59 am

    I hate war its so destructive, but sometimes its necessary and if done right can be a real success, for example the war to remove Saddam worked out great, and the war in Syria was going well until the evil Russians stepped in and bombed the rebels, of course the idiot Trump just sat back and allowed it to happen, this is NOT what we pay him to do

    So its in America’s vital interest to smash Iran, yes this will cause some problems for the world economy, and a few goyim will have to die (who cares the goy are not actually human) but suck it up folks its our nations future

  5. Konrad Molotov
    June 26, 2019 at 1:54 pm

    Let’s not forget two devastating kick-in-the-balls options Iran has in its arsenal:

    1. Using its ballistic missile capibility to wipe out the entire US fleet in the Persian gulf, sinking dozens of warships and inflicting over 20,000 casualties in under 24 hours (See millenium challenge 2002, a pentagon simulation of war between US and Iran, in which this exactly happened; Since then, Iran’s ballistic missiles have been updated and expanded massivley)

    This would be a crippling blow to the United States and its ability to show dominance militarily, and would most likely turn public opinion starkly against the war.

    The second trick in the book is Iran’s ability to commit terrorist attacks accross the United States and Europe; A nuclear suitcase bomb in NY or LA would kill millions and send the Empire into absolute apocalyptic chaos, and may provoke a nuclear response.

  6. BAP
    July 12, 2019 at 8:35 am

    ” Using its ballistic missile capibility to wipe out the entire US fleet in the Persian gulf, sinking dozens of warships and inflicting over 20,000 casualties in under 24 hours (See millenium challenge 2002, a pentagon simulation of war between US and Iran, in which this exactly happened; Since then, Iran’s ballistic missiles have been updated and expanded massivley)”

    No that is nonsense. Iran has the ability to seriously damage/sink 5 – 10 large USN vessels but that’s about it. No one is exposing dozens of USN ships close to the shore.

    “Iran’s ability to commit terrorist attacks accross the United States and Europe; A nuclear suitcase bomb in NY or LA would kill millions and send the Empire into absolute apocalyptic chaos, and may provoke a nuclear response.”

    More nonsense, Iran doesn’t have suitcase nukes and a suitcase nuke would kill like 50 000 not a million – at best.

    However, you seriously underestimate the effectiveness of classical explosives. Just 40 Iranian operators inside the US/EU with guns and 2 tons of plastic explosive total would cripple both. Several collapsed skyscrapers (~ 75 kg per tower), 20 000 dead, large electricity outtages and fuel shortage due to refineries being targeted.

    • Konrad Molotov
      July 16, 2019 at 1:39 pm

      1. If the US was nervous about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, it is totally feasible that they would send 2-3 carrier strike groups towards the Persian gulf for intimidation/war prep purposes, exposing them to Iran’s wealth of anti-ship missiles and other ballistic weaponry. You don’t think the Dr. Sun-Tzu Machiavelli 48 laws of power-esque geniuses at the white house/pentagon wouldn’t do something as stupid as that, given their track record? Even then 5-10 large ships sunk would equal tens of thousands of casualties.

      2. Lmao. If Iran had suitcase nukes, they certainly wouldn’t be spreading the fucking news. It is an entirely non-zero chance that a few of those such weapons found themselves in Iranian hands for unofficial use, especially when 100 or so soviet-made backpack nukes went “missing” in the late 1990s.

      You do make a good point on conventional weapons, but a 1kt nuclear explosion in an area as densely packed as NYC or LA with the resulting radioactive fallout would be far more deadly than a mere 50,000 dead.

  1. January 2, 2020 at 9:59 pm

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