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Some Initial Thoughts about the Recent Coronavirus Outbreak in China

January 31, 2020 12 comments

More than one commentator on my previous post wanted me to write something about the recent Coronavirus outbreak in China, especially regarding how bad it really is or might become in the near future. Since useful and concrete information about this outbreak has been overshadowed by a lot of racist mental projections in the declining west, I thought it was a good idea to write down my initial thoughts about the situation. FYI, one of my degrees is in microbiology. So let us talk about about this outbreak, starting with what we know for sure about the virus in question.

1] The Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) behind this outbreak is fairly close in its sequence to one which caused the SARS outbreak in 2003. And yes, it is closer to some known bat coronaviruses, but not others. Also, both SARS and 2019-nCoV almost certainly jumped from bats to human hosts. The odd thing, though, is that most bat species in Wuhan are currently hibernating and the initial outbreak occurred at a seafood market, suggesting that another mammalian species acted as an intermediate host between bats and humans.. perhaps a sick cat, dog etc.

2] Initial sequence analysis of virus samples from multiple patients and comparing them to each other strongly suggests that the jump from bats to humans occurred very recently, mostly likely within the past 2-3 months. Interestingly it seems to bind to the same human protein (for entry into cells) as the coronavirus which caused SARS. Given the fairly high similarity in sequence, same protein used for entry into cells and similar clinical disease produced by 2019-nCov and SARS we can make an educated guess that many other characteristic (infectivity etc) are also similar. Think of 2019-nCOV as a sibling or cousin of SARS.

3] It therefore follows that 2019-nCov is likely to be similar in its infectivity to the one which caused SARS in 2003. While some preliminary analysis by western scientists pretend that the former is more infectious than the later, everything we know about viruses tells us that they are very similar viruses which use the same protein to gain entry into human cells. I do not expect 2019-nCov to be significantly harder to control than SARS. The key word is ‘harder’ as 2019-nCov might end up infecting more people than SARS- but ease of control will be similar.

4] So far, the percentages of 2019-nCov infections ending in death is around 10%, and is similar to what we saw over the entirety of SARS outbreak. It is well known that viral strains which cause severe infections and high rates of mortality evolve into ones that cause mild infections and low rates of mortality because the former burn themselves out due to lack of new hosts. We can therefore expect the mortality and morbidity rates due to this virus to drop over the course of time due to better quarantine (corrals more aggressive strains) and treatment (lower mortality). Some of you might have noticed that the increase in number of deaths is now far slower than the number of confirmed infections- which is a good sign.

5] It is highly unlikely that 2019-nCov was developed by China as a biological weapon for the simple reason that biological weapons are, for the lack of better words, stupid and dangerous. See.. unlike nuclear weapons (which China posses), biological weapons cannot be controlled once unleashed and are likely to kill as many on your side as the other side. This is especially so, if there is no readily available vaccine or decent drugs to treat that infection. Furthermore, modern scientific techniques allow us to track back their creation to a degree that was unimaginable in even as late as the 1980s. Being greedy is not the same as being stupid.

6] Most hype about 2019-nCov has a lot to do with the increasingly rapid decline of the dying west. To make matters worse, it is now obvious that the western system of corporation-controlled capitalism is vastly inferior to the Chinese system of state-controlled and directed “capitalism”. In case you think otherwise, tell me how people similar to Trump (fraudulent right-wing populists) are increasingly getting elected in western countries. Every white idiot (and non-white idiot from subservient countries) expressing public alarm about 2019-nCov outbreak is subconsciously or consciously driven to do so because of a combination of racism and the unspoken recognition that their own system is in terminal decline with no realistic hope of recovery.

7] To be clear, I am not minimizing the potential problems this outbreak could cause. Having said that, the Chinese system is probably the most capable of actually stopping such an outbreak. As mentioned above, having a state-controlled system of governance not beholden to corporations and other short-sighted moneyed interests allows you to get things done and devote resources in ways that are impossible for corporation-controlled “democracies” such as USA, not to mention semi-functional anarchies such as India. You can be certain that Chinese government will things done, regardless of the financial cost and suppression of worthless “human rights”.

What do you think? Comments?

The 1990s was Last Great Decade for People Living in USA and West: 1

January 26, 2020 15 comments

Here is a series I first contemplated writing about five years ago, though the core idea occurred to me a bit before that and in an unexpected place. See.. spending too much time looking at the less frequented parts of the internet often results in me noticing unusual correlations, trends and patterns which escape the attention of most people. About seven years ago, I was going through a newsgroup about new large architectural projects all over the world and noticed an odd trend. Increasingly the most interesting and large building projects in the world were in Asia, not North America or Europe. Some of you might attribute this to Asia finally catching up to the West, and initially considered that possibility. Then I noticed something else.. most of the few large building projects in the West were increasingly way over budget and took far longer than expected. More interestingly, the results were usually of poor quality and full of poor design choices.

And then I started noticing this same basic trend in many other areas, from drug discovery and computer technology to video games, movies and music. It was as if the past 15-20 years have been one continuous blur of stagnation if you were living in USA or any other western country. Some of you might say that smartphones, “machine learning” and other assorted bullshit is a sign of progress. But is it really? Think about it.. Pocket PCs running Windows Mobile could be used to browse the web, check email, play games, watch movie clips, take photos, utilize GPS and many more things almost 20 years ago. The biggest “advance” smartphones represent is that they are permanently connected to high-speed cellular networks because data rates are now very low. Has all that hype about “machine learning”, “deep learning” and “AI” translated into any worthwhile improvement in your quality of life? Can you think of a counter example?

While I would like to start this series by talking about how technology has stagnated, a better (more popular) place to start would be how cultural products has either stagnated gotten worse. While trends in music and video games will be addressed in subsequent posts, we will focus on trends in films and TV in this post. But before we go there, let us first define the 1990s. In my opinion, the 1990s began on December 26, 1991 and ended on September 11, 2001 though it kinda dragged on until August 31, 2005. The period between those dates was the last time the west (especially USA) was dominant and relatively prosperous. As you will see, these dates define that decade in many fields. It is as if this time-span was the last hurrah for the western socio-economic model including neo-liberalism (and neo-conservatism).

Now let us get back to the main focus of this post, namely the almost complete stagnation of creativity in western films and TV shows (including online offerings). Here is a question- Do you remember any film or TV show released within the past 15 years that was not a direct derivative of something released earlier? Do you remember anything financially successful or unsuccesful that was not a direct derivative of something from before 2006? But why does this matter? Well.. because almost decade in the century before 2006 witnessed multiple major new trends that were not a direct derivative of something from the past one. To be fair, some of it was due to technological advances and changes in social mores. But much of it was driven by people experimenting with new ways to present novel material. Confused? Let me explain..

Consider the 1920s, with german expressionist cinema (The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari, Nosferatu, Pre-Code Hollywood movies, Russian Cinema (Battleship Potemkin, October). Can anybody deny that these represented new ways of making and editing films, not to mention the fact that they tackle hitherto untackled subject matter- at least in cinema. Or take the 1930s with its classic monster movies, Hollywood musicals, Disney Cartoons, Leni Riefenstahl’s documentaries etc. The 1940s had Film Noir and other memorable movies such as Citizen Kane, It’s a Wonderful Life, Casablanca etc. To be clear, I am not suggesting that previous decades were full of good, let alone original, movies. But it is clear that every decade in the century prior to 2006 saw the emergence of new and influential trends in cinema. However, we haven’t really seen anything similar occurring in the past 15 years.

The 1960s had tons of new trends, as did the 1970s. Even the 1980s had their new trends from low-budget horror movies to summer action blockbusters. There was much innovation in western cinema for a century before 2006. But the something, or more than one thing, happened western cinema became boring, repetitive and (most importantly) forgettable. I have briefly touched on some of these issues in my post about the current rash of film remakes, reboots, sequels and prequels and I sort of started talking about this topic in a post a few months ago– but never got around to building on it. And yes, I am aware that there are broader sociological trends at work. But whichever way you try to explain, it is hard to argue that the past fifteen years saw the alsmot total stagnation of creativity in western cinema and TV shows.

Don’t believe me? Well.. here are some facts. Most of the LOTR trilogy was filmed in New Zealand between October 11, 1999 and December 22, 2000, and the first movie in that series came out on November 20, 2001. The first X-men movie was released on July 14, 2000. The first film in the highly successful Spider Man franchise came out on May 3, 2002. The Matrix was released in 1999, as were the following important movies: Star Wars: Episode I, Office Space, Election, The Mummy, American Pie, The Blair Witch Project, The Sixth Sense, The Green Mile, Fight Club, American Beauty, Sleepy Hollow and many more. 1998 saw the release of important movies such as The Truman Show, Armageddon, Deep Impact, 1998 version of Godzilla, The Big Lebowski, Wild Things, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas and many more.

The first Austin Powers movie came out in 1997, the first Jurassic Park in 1993. The first Scream movie came out in 1996 and the first I Know What You Did Last Summer in 1997. The first Toy Story came out in 1995 and the first Shrek movie in 2001. Can you think any equivalents in post 2005-era? Oh, and even the 40-year-old virgin came out in 2005. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in 2004. Superbad was filmed in 2006 and had been under development since 2000. Once again, I could keep going on and on- but you get my point. Pretty much every single major movie released in past 15 years can with very few exceptions directly trace its roots to the pre-2005 era. In the next part of this series, I will show how that the same is true for TV shows including their streaming variants. We will also start going into why this major socio-cultural-economic shift (aka stagnation) began in earnest around the mid-2000s.

What do you think? Comments?

UFOs might be Robotic Interplanetary Probes from Other Star Systems

January 22, 2020 4 comments

About two years ago, I wrote a short series about my thoughts on the ‘ancient astronaut’ theory. To make a long story short, the vast majority of stuff attributed to visits by ancient astronauts is much easier to explain without such intervention. Around that time, I also wrote a a post about the continued popularity of “Ancient Aliens” type TV shows. Having said that, I am skeptical about the vast majority of UFO sightings, the key words being ‘vast majority’. See.. the thing is.. over the many years I have been an amateur astronomer, I have seen (on only a couple of occasions) objects in the sky which moved around in a manner that was incompatible with currently feasible propulsion technologies. In other words, they were UFOs by definition.

Over the past couple of years, many of you might have also heard about more than one video of UFOs shot from navy aircraft (link 1, link 2 , link 3). Without going into too much detail, over thee years there have been numerous instances of navy pilots witnessing objects which display speed and maneuverability characteristics that exceeds what any known aircraft and human pilots are capable of performing or tolerating. Moreover, these unidentified flying objects are clearly aware of the presence of human piloted aircraft in their vicinity. While it would be tempting to believe that these UFOs are proof of some secret government program, the objects in question exhibit speed, acceleration and maneuverability characteristics which preclude human operators and propulsion dependent on currently feasible technologies, which is a fancy way of saying they are unlikely to be made by humans. So what are they doing flying about in our atmosphere?

Well.. here is my theory. Imagine that you are a species which has reached the technological level to travel between stars. Now ask yourself a simple question- what would be the most optimal way to explore stellar systems within your reach? Would you visit each and every system that you could travel to in person OR would you send “unmanned” probes that were essentially autonomous to survey them- especially the less important ones. My point is that it is far more discreet and less resource intensive to use “unmanned” probes for surveying and keeping tabs on planets in most star systems. Visiting in person makes sense only if you are interacting with another species that is at a comparable level of technological development. Also anybody who can travel between stars can almost certainly pack a lot of intelligence within such probes.

The UFOs we see in our atmosphere are, therefore. most likely ‘daughter’ probes meant for close-up exploration of planets. They are likely carried near their destination by larger ‘mother’ probes which travel between star systems. This might explain the less frequent sightings of larger UFOs releasing and then collecting smaller UFOs that fly much closer to the surface. Of course, there is a chance that all of this is just part of a big hoax or coverup. However, everything we know about UFOs thus far, suggests that a very small percentage of them are real and not controlled and manufactured by humans. Think of them as extremely advanced and capable equivalents of the unnamed probes we ourselves use to explore planets within the solar system.

What do you think? Comments?

NSFW Links: Jan 21, 2020

January 21, 2020 Leave a comment

These links are NSFW. Will post something more intellectual tomorrow.

Amateur Eye Contact BJs: Jan 15, 2020 – Amateur cuties giving serious eye contact.

Amateur Bathtub Booties: Jan 19, 2020 – Curvy amateur cuties posing in bathtubs.

Enjoy! Comments?

Categories: Uncategorized

Interesting Plotholes with Comic Potential in ‘Dracula’ by Bram Stoker

January 20, 2020 2 comments

In the past, I have written a couple of posts about the novel ‘Dracula’- specifically concerning location of Poenari Castle and how HBO or Netflix should make a miniseries consisting of a faithful adaption of the original material. This post is about something a bit different- specifically, all the plotholes within that novel which have potential for comedy or an alternative retelling. As you will see, there is much in that story which could be spun either way..

1] The book does not contain any reference to the presence of a washroom or receptacles for that purpose. In the 1890s (when it was set) such facilities or receptacles were maintained and cleaned by servants. So what was going on at Castle Dracula? Was the Count also cleaning and emptying Harker’s chamber pots? Does anybody see the comic potential in this plothole?

2] How does the Count get his hands on fresh food, especially meat, to cook for Harker? This is especially relevant since the novel is set in an era when domestic refrigeration was basically nonexistent, especially in a remote corner of what is present-day Romania. So did he have to trade with people in surrounding villages or did he just take whatever he needed?

3] In the novel, there is a period between 31st May and 17th June, when the Count seems to to have taken away Harker’s diary and other writing material. So, did Harker ever ask Dracula about that incident. Also, was there more writing material in the castle library? And on what material did he write the entry for 31st May? An interesting plothole.. isn’t it?

4] How did Dracula get the idea of moving to London in the late 1890s? What stopped him from doing so at a previous date? Also, why did he choose London rather than another large European city such as Vienna or Paris? And why stop at Europe. why did he not choose New York or some other large city in the Americas? Would make an interesting alternative storyline.

5] If Dracula has to interact with humans to get food for Harker, books, magazines, newspapers etc.. why didn’t he get somebody to periodically clean and repair his castle. The guy certainly had more than enough money and self-control to not kill the help. Or even better.. why not do it himself or get his three useless vampire-wives to do it for him? Has comedy potential..

6] What did Dracula do for all the centuries before he decided to move to London? Did he not get bored of going through the same dammed routine every single day? Given that Dracula, even in the novel, is not a mindless killer.. how did he entertain himself? Yes, I am aware that he had a library, but wouldn’t a man of action (even if he was undead) feel cooped up in that old castle?

7] Given that the three female vampires in the novel are just insufferable as living women, what was the dynamics of the relationship between them and Dracula? Why didn’t Dracula just get rid of them and pay for female sexual company. Face it, there were lot of poor and attractive living women in the nearby town and villages who would have sex with a vampire for the right price.

Can you think of any more potential plotholes in that novel?

What do you think? Comments?

Some Updates on the Accuracy of Recent Ballistic Missile Strikes by Iran

January 16, 2020 14 comments

In past couple of weeks, I have written a few posts (link 1, link 2, link 3 and link 4) about recent development in the Middle-East, specifically the rapidly deteriorating relations between Iran and USA.. which are now deep in negative territory. To be fair, they have never been close to positive territory since the 1979 revolution which overthrew their american puppet ruler. However recent developments in that region, specifically the assassination of Qasem Soleimani have pushed the course of events into what is now an irreversible pathway which results in Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and ICBMs within next few years, at the very least. However too many retarded and old white american jingos are busy deluding themselves into believing that Trump had “contained” Iran or some other bullshit fantasies likely fueled by reading too much fantasy aka Tom Clancy novels. Meanwhile events in the real world are increasingly pointing to a very different outcome.

As many of you know, after the assassination of Soleimani, Iran launched over a dozen ballistic missiles at two (or three?) american bases in Iraq. The majority were directed at the Al Assad Airbase in Iraq, which was allegedly where the drone that targeted Soleimani was launched from. While many “objective” western commentators are busy pretending that the strikes were not effective or accurate. Most american jingos also seem to have swallowed that bullshit, largely because it appears to validate whatever delusion they want to believe. Let us face it, telling people lies they want to hear has always been a pathway to fame, money and respectability. In fact, that has always been the modus operandi for priests of every single traditional and secular religion throughout human history. But let us get back to topic at hand..

As it turns out, the Iranian SRBM (Short Range Ballistic Missile) strikes were far more accurate than almost all “credentialed experts” were willing to accept- especially in public. One Iranian missile obliterated a housing trailer at the Ain al-Assad air base. Another missile destroyed a dining facility, which had been closed on the night of the attack as a precautionary measure but would normally have been open at that time. Given that the base in question is fairly large, the fact that Iran was able to accurately hit specific individual buildings known to used by american personnel tells you a lot about how accurate their missiles are under real-life conditions. But why does it matter? Well for starters, it confirms what Iran has been telling the world about the capability of its ballistic missiles. And we already know from that attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, that their cruise missiles are also accurate enough to pick out building sized targets.

But what are the real-life implications of Iran having hundreds to thousands of missiles (ballistic and cruise) accurate and long-ranged enough to target individual buildings within a thousand or two thousand miles of the Iranian border? To understand that, let me ask you a question.. Do you know the difference between Combat Radius and Ferry Range for an aircraft? To summarize, combat radius is the maximum distance you can fly on a military mission with a standard combat payload and still expect to return to the airbase you took off from. In contrast, the ferry range measures how far an unladen aircraft with maximum fuel can fly in one direction with about 10% fuel left at the time of expected landing. As it turns out the vast majority of modern american combat aircraft have a combat radius of less than 800 miles (~ 1300 km). And this is not just an american thing, as similar aircraft from other countries have about the same combat range.

In other words, the ability to bomb Iran around the clock would require USA to station aircraft, crew, support staff and equipment within the range of Iranian missiles that are accurate enough to consistently destroy individual buildings at that distance. See.. in previous conflicts such as the two Iraq wars, their opponent simply did not have missiles accurate enough to blow up individual building-sized targets at that range. In contrast to that, Iran has thousands of missiles accurate enough to make it basically impossible for USA to safely use airbases within the combat radius of most aircraft in its inventory. Now some of you might say.. what about using B-52s or B-1s based in Diego Garcia with ALCMs. Well.. if you did that Iran would start targeting important buildings, power stations, water desalination plants and airports all over the Middle-East, including Israel.

As some of you might know, there are millions of expats (including westerners) living in Gulf States. Try to imagine the chaos that such missile hits could create in cities such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, Khobar etc. Heck, even if Iran hit a few major buildings in each city, there would be an exodus of millions who would want to flee those cities immediately. Given that all those cities are in countries which are basically arid deserts, even a limited escalation could cause a humanitarian catastrophe in that region- to say nothing about its effect on political stability in that region. And yes, it would totally disrupt the flow of oil and gas from those countries- even if the facilities themselves were not hit. To make a long story short, the USA will have to start providing large-scale humanitarian aid to gulf states starting the day after it attacks Iran. Then there is the small matter of global oil availability and prices.

But why does any of this matter again? Well.. because the current occupant of the white house is an orange buffoon under political stress due to the bullshit scam of impeachment who is advised by christian doomsday-types (Pompeo, Pence etc) and Zionist neocons (too many to name) whose grasp on reality is tenuous- at best. Also, wars often start in the most unexpected ways and cannot be controlled or moderated once unleashed. It could get ugly very quickly.

What do you think? Comments?

Couple Of Obvious Predictions about Potential Military Conflicts in 2020

January 12, 2020 9 comments

Since making predictions about the future is often the main reason for people writing online, let me make a couple of really obvious predictions about potential military conflicts in 2020. To make things easy, I am going to restrict myself to those which directly involve the USA- because there is no shortage of potential military conflicts which don’t involve USA. For this post, I have chosen the two most obvious, and long-standing, conflicts which this country is involved in- and have the highest potential for disastrous flareups. But before we go there, let us talk about the common thread which runs through both of them- namely, the inability of american establishment to accept that their empire is circling the drain and that it is not 1991 or 2002.

Irrespective of what the american establishment believes, the power of its empire has been in a terminal downward spiral since Sep 11, 2001. It is important to note that there are many reasons for this death spiral, and most have nothing to do with spending on military matters. In fact, one could make the argument that the ideologies of neoliberalism and financialization have made a much larger contribution (directly and indirectly) to loss of power by the dying american empire than increased defense spending or development of newer weapons by other countries. I plan to address this particular topic in an upcoming series, but getting back to the one at hand- why is the american establishment so deeply in denial about the rapidly diminishing power of its empire?

Once again, there are many reasons- but the most important comes down to the consequences of acknowledging reality. See.. the cushy and sinecured livelihood of the american establishment is totally dependent on their ability to convince the public (at least most of them) that “USA is still number 1”. To put it bluntly, they would lose all their power and status the instant most people in this country realized that USA is not a superpower, let alone the only one. And this is irrespective of what it still spends on weapon systems, USA ceased to be a superpower about a decade ago when the Chinese economy and their industrial capability surpassed them. In case you want to understand my supporting argument in a bit more detail, here is a short series.

But getting back to the topic at hand, how does the profound inability of american establishment to inhabit the real world make military conflict more likely? Well.. let us start by talking about the peculiar situation between DPRK and USA since Trump and Kim Jong-un decided to first meet in mid-2018. While this first face-to-face meeting between Kim Jon-un and Trump in Singapore was a big step forward, at least diplomatically, subsequent meetings haven’t produced anything beyond photographs of both men shaking hands. But why not? Shouldn’t this big symbolic have resulted in worthwhile progress on real-life issues between the two countries? What is main stumbling block for real improvement in relations between DPRK and USA?

In my opinion, it comes to the american establishment unwillingness to accept reality, at multiple levels. See.. after watching american behavior and actions between 1991 and 2003, only an idiot would trust any treaty signed with it. Which is another way of saying that DPRK is not going to give up its nuclear weapons and ICBMs.. ever. Let me remind you that DPRK went down the path to acquiring nukes only after 2003, after watching USA invade Iraq. Between 1994-2003, DPRK was interested in acquiring nukes but not seriously committed to that goal. If the idiots in DC had lived in the real world, and behaved accordingly, they could have achieved their alleged goal of denuclearizing DPRK. But their whiteman egos prevented them from offering any compromise which would be acceptable to DPRK, and that opportunity was lost forever after 2003.

Flash-forward to today and DPRK has thermonuclear warheads and the means to reliably deliver them to any american metropolitan area of its choice. And guess what.. both countries bordering it (also nuclear powers) aka China and Russia are fine with it, largely because USA has been also busy antagonizing them for over a decade. No amount of sanctions have changed that outcome and none will. It should also be noted that at this stage Kim Jong-un is fully aware that there will never be any worthwhile relief to economic sanctions by USA and has chosen a different path for his countries future. I would add that previous attempts by idiots such as Bush43 and Obama44 to wait for the “inevitable collapse” of the DPRK government have failed miserably.

So why do I think that this conflict might heat up in 2020? Well.. because KJU has indicated his desire to restart testing of newer ICBMs, and maybe even nukes- and he is a man of his words. Expect KJU to restart testing long-ranged missiles, specifically solid-fueled ICBMs sometime this year. He is fully aware that doing so will make Trump look weak and ineffectual, but he does not care because he has an insurance policy- aka enough nukes and missiles to reliably target large urban centers in Japan and USA. The real question then is, how will Trump and the delusional and largely Zionist neocons around him response to such actions in an election year and under the shadow of his impeachment. It will be interesting to watch..

Then there is the conflict with Iran, which I have written about previously (link 1, link 2 and link 3). Without going into a ton of detail, it is fair to say that Israel and USA are trying to provoke a war with Iran. Given economic sanctions imposed against that country and the fact that Iranian leaders are not idiots to wait them out when they have other options- a conflict is likely sooner than later. The bone-headed Zionist-inspired assassination of Soleimani is not going to make war less likely. Furthermore Iran has demonstrated that its ballistic and cruise missiles are now very accurate. To put it another way, it will be basically impossible for USA to conduct airstrikes or even house troops within a thousand km (or more) of The Iranian border.

Let me remind you that Saddam never had missiles that were as numerous, accurate and varied as what Iran posses today and its domestic air defense system is no slouch either. To put it bluntly, it is not realistic for USA to launch a successful land-based invasion of Iran. Also, any airstrikes against targets in Iran will almost immediately result in the war spreading to countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. Since I do not wish to repeat my previous posts, let’s just say that a conventional war against Iran would be uncontrollable and bad for the economy of west-European countries, who will quickly find out how important all that imported oil is for running their economies. By now most of you might be thinking- won’t cooler heads prevail? Well.. maybe they will, but history suggest another possibility.

If you have ever read the history of large and consequential wars within the last hundred or so years, one thing quickly becomes obvious- most were not started intentionally and almost nobody expected them to develop in the manner they did or result in the final outcome- for both sides. USA is an empire in rapid decline that is run by a bunch of credentialed idiots who do not want to admit the obvious and presided over by an orange buffoon with the mental maturity of a 16- year old boy. To put it another way, things are far more likely to take unexpected routes and result in disastrous outcomes- especially in an election year. Did I mention that current american policies and attitudes are certain to worsen the ongoing conflicts with DPRK and Iran? In summary, 2020 promises to be interesting year.. perhaps, a bit too interesting for some.

What do you think? Comments?