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Some Thoughts on Trump’s Latest Idiotic Move to Start a War with Iran

In the previous post, I wrote some very preliminary thoughts on the fallout of orange troll’s latest brainfart- specifically the totally bone-headed move to assassinate Qasem Soleimani when he was on official business in Iraq and on his way to meet government officials to Turkey. And let us be clear about something else, Soleimani’s travel schedule was not secret and he traveled openly to represent the interests of Iranian government. So what are the likely repercussions of this very stupid move by orange buffoon? As it turns out, there will be many consequences both immediate and secondary- and none of them will be good for people in USA.. to put it mildly. I have a feeling that Trump nor his neocon Israeli cronies have a grasp of what they have unleashed. And yes, I am implying that the “chosen people” are not clever as they delude themselves into believing.

1] The most significant, but almost ignored, consequence of this stupid move by Trump and his neocon advisers is that Iran is now definitely going to acquire nuclear weapons and ICBMs. As mentioned in a previous post, the main reason for Iranian government to not go down the route taken by North Korea took was that a significant number of them believed that some sort of long-term peace deal with USA was possible. However developments in past three years have clearly shown that Kim Jong-un’s plan to acquire nuclear weapons and ICBMs which could reliably target american cities for the purpose of deterrence was the correct one. In contrast, the LIEbral faction within the Iranian government which wanted better relations with the “west” even if doing so meant capping their nuclear and missile ambitions have been shown to be wrong.

2] The assassination of Soleimani by USA should be seen as the inflection point when credibility of western-leaning LIEbral faction in Iran went below zero. To say that this shift will have major consequences is an understatement. From now on, the viewpoint of hardliners in Iranian system becomes the dominant and almost universally accepted one within that country. For uninformed western readers, the hardliners in Iran are far more driven by nationalism than religion- like how the North Vietnamese were far more into nationalism than communism. One can safely assume that any new deal between Iran and USA or its catamite western allies is basically impossible in the foreseeable future. And who needs USA and the west, when you have China aka the country with the largest and most diverse real-life economy in the world.

3] Talking about China.. as many of you know, Trump and his stupid “advisers” have done many stupid (trade-related) things in past three years to convince the Chinese that letting USA hang itself is necessary. And let us be realistic about something else- there is nothing which USA manufactures today which the world would really miss if the country vanished from the face of this planet tomorrow. It also does not help that Trump, in spite of what idiots such as MikeCA believe, has done much to antagonize Russia. Long story short, neither country will be unhappy to see the USA militarily humiliated and further drained of resources in the Middle-East. China, in particular, rightly sees the USA as a dying empire in its terminal phase. They will be more than happy to let another country, such as Iran, accelerate the demise of USA and the west in general.

4] Maybe the orange buffoon and his Zionist advisers are trying to make themselves believe that Iran will finally fight on a battlefield and schedule which suits american arms doctrine. However anybody who is not delusional enough to believe that they are the “chosen people” because of their race (whites in USA) or religion (another country in the ME) understand that Iran has a history of fighting on a battlefield of their choice and a schedule of their choosing. To put it another way, you can expect a lot of.. well.. unrest in surrounding countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan which will likely target people who look american. There is historical precedence for this sort of targeting- and it can be most persuasive and effective.

Does Trump really think that he can protect every single american and his family working in Iraq and Afghanistan? To be clear, I am talking about people who work in non-military occupations, such as those who work in the oil and gas sector. Do you really think that Iran will not start targeting select oil and gas facilities in Iraq- especially in areas with western companies? FYI- Iran did not do this for many years because it wanted to normalize relations with USA and the west, but since there is no chance of that occurring in the foreseeable future it makes sense to go after soft targets which were forbidden in the past. Similarly, don’t be surprised if that Taliban and other groups in Afghanistan suddenly receive huge caches of weapons along with advisers.

A few well publicized incidents will likely result in most westerners avoid travelling, let alone living, in that country. Let me remind you that most people in Iraq and Afghanistan already hate white americans. And ya.. it works. Just ask Israelis why they had to withdraw from Lebanon by 2000. Another long story short, it was just too expensive and too hard to operate without suffering serious casualties- even for its armed forces. Now imagine what Iran can do in its neighboring countries and half a world away from USA. And don’t worry, countries such as Russia and China will be more than happy to supplement the efforts of Iran in those countries. If you thought that the previous failed occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan were unmitigated disasters, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Then again, that is the logical endpoint of american policy.

In the next part, I will focus on how the orange buffoon’s desire to satisfy Saudi Arabia and Israel, in addition to looking “tough” during the 2020 election campaign, are going to backfire on him. Then again, cannot think of somebody who deserves it more.. except perhaps all those establishment democrats who are as desperate to enter into a new war in that part of the world.

What do you think? comments?

  1. Cheers
    January 3, 2020 at 8:02 pm

    Does Trump really think that he can protect every single american and his family working in Iraq and Afghanistan?

    Great question, but if it gets that bad, I don’t think US protection of US Middle Eastern assets is really that important on the grand chessboard.

    I have already thought this whole thing through previously w/ the logical assistance of a Japanese military strategist paper that seems to have have been memory holed from google and duckduckgo…

    To paraphrase from that paper, the USA could have launched nuclear attacks against the entire Middle East in response to the September 11th attacks, and the world would just have sat and observed on the sidelines. China, being nobody at the time, and Russia being occupied with a major war in Chechnya along with former soviet countries continually breaking off – no country would have engaged the only superpower taking a nuclear action within the Middle East in response to the Sept 11th scenario.

    The primary reason why the USA didn’t enact a nuclear response is because the USA did not “hate the enemy (the Middle East) enough”, at the time. Barring the pre-invasion of Iraq, there was no massive USA led artillery attack against Iraq throughout the entire USA-Iraq campaign.

    And the next day, every other country would have scrambled to get its own nukes and ICBMs. Also they would launch nukes first and turn USA in a radioactive graveyard at the slightest possibility of USA launching its own nukes.

    There is a reason why the concept of ‘deterrence’ exists, in the first place.

    I agree, with the Japanese man, totally.

    A number of (let’s say 3+) major terrorist attacks against US embassies in the middle east will enact tit for tat behavior until:

    Uncharted territory.

    The Japanese guy was probably a little-dicked idiot who lacked a basic understanding of the concept of nuclear deterrence.

    • nyolci
      January 4, 2020 at 7:39 am

      “I don’t think US protection of US Middle Eastern assets is really that important on the grand chessboard.”
      Quite to the contrary. If the US gets kicked out of the Middle East that will be the beginning of the end for her. The US military is the last thing that keeps the US dollar and the complete Western financial system unquestioned. The dollar and the economy will collapse sooner or later but getting a bloody nose will hasten the thing tremendously.

      “To paraphrase from that paper, the USA could have launched nuclear attacks against the entire Middle East in response to the September 11th attacks, and the world would just have sat and observed on the sidelines.”
      I don’t think this paper had a good insight. Even close allies like France showed public objections to US steps.

      “Russia being occupied with a major war in Chechnya along with former soviet countries continually breaking off”
      That was a kinda policing operation at tactical depth. The Russian strategic assets and most of the country weren’t affected.

      “The primary reason why the USA didn’t enact a nuclear response is because the USA did not “”hate the enemy (the Middle East) enough””, at the time.”
      The Iraq campaign (and Afghanistan) wasn’t about hate, of course. The US wanted to control these central Eurasian regions. She wanted to control one of the most important oil producing region and get rid of the last few nonconformist regimes like Iraq, Syria and Iran. The US wanted to control the Central Asian Stans and wanted to stir trouble in the underbelly of Russia and the back of China. 9/11 and the Iragi WMDs were just pretext. (And it is almost irrelevant but Osama bin Laden was very likely innocent in the 9/11 attacks, and the US knew that well.)

      “A number of (let’s say 3+) major terrorist attacks against US embassies in the middle east will enact tit for tat.”
      This is typical Western arrogance. Anything the Iranians (or Iraqis etc.) do against the US would be the long-long-long overdue tat for the much-much tits.

      • Cheers
        January 4, 2020 at 9:40 pm

        Quite to the contrary. If the US gets kicked out of the Middle East that will be the beginning of the end for her.

        Have you ever seen the USA completely against the wall? Me neither. Unprecedented statement.

        That being said, prepare for unprecedented USA, Iran, and Israel activity within the next year. (e.g. possibly… more high profile assassinations within public venues, major militia moves, hard hitting strategic bombings, etc…. acceleration). This, of course, is obvious given the circumstances.

        This is typical Western arrogance. Anything the Iranians (or Iraqis etc.) do against the US would be the long-long-long overdue tat for the much-much tits.

        Trump, need I say more?

        Being rational?

        Please.

        Dangerous times ahead.

      • nyolci
        January 6, 2020 at 9:25 am

        “Have you ever seen the USA completely against the wall?”
        Yes, of course, for example in Vietnam. Israel got a bloody nose in Lebanon in 2006. They had to accept defeat, and they tried to make a glorious victory (or some bullshit about stab in the back) from this.

  2. P Ray
    January 4, 2020 at 5:40 am

    For me it’s a simple case of those people living off of white privilege making the big bucks overseas … the number of countries they can freely operate in without worrying about their safety, are dwindling.

    The other fun part is if they get killed or hurt overseas, their capitalist insurance companies may suddenly decide not to pay out. Because it’s detrimental to the bottom line.

    So they are either going to have to modify their behaviour to secure their own safety,
    or double down on their exceptionalism and pay the price.

    Don’t forget that in some of those places, killing or injuring a (white) foreigner can be seen as an act of bravery or part of a gang initiation. I guess that is the flip side of white privilege.
    You get paid more for whatever you do … but any harm done against you carries a higher “score”.

  3. Yusef
    January 4, 2020 at 12:35 pm

    The Iranians may correctly perceive the blood is on Trump’s hands and Trump’s hands only. They will have quite a lot of support and sympathy internationally if they respond by taking out Trump and his family. (There won’t be wringing of hands or crying in the US, either, in many sectors, and this is obvious.) Such a response by the Iranians could be perceived as very reasonable, as just. Trump is kidding himself if he doesn’t believe this thought won’t occur to the Iranians or that it is just plain impossible they can pull it off. Just how secure is Trump, anyway, in the loyalty of his secret service or other career security personnel? He better watch out.

    I would not be surprised if the Iranians went after his family either..

    • P Ray
      January 7, 2020 at 3:02 am

      Just a repost of a possible vengeance attack that someone with a beef with the US might try (and there are a lot of someones that can make it possible):
      A lovely fairytale, brought to you courtesy of wotm8brah at sluthate.com
      “Consequences of a large EMP attack”
      wotm8brah » 18 hours ago

      Anyone know?

      Fuck reading this is scary

      After reading the book One Second After we had an interesting discussion over on JoeUser about the subject.

      One user said that humans had adapted and were far too enlightened today to revert to violence and mayhem in the absence of our modern conveniences.

      So let’s walk through the EMP scenario:

      Day 1: July Year 200x

      5 container ships in the gulf of Mexico fire medium range SCUD missiles high into the atmosphere until it reaches far above Kansas and other states. On board are 45KT nuclear warhead. It explodes creating EMP that takes out all of the integrated circuits in the United States.

      That means anything electronic that hasn’t been hardened is going to be ruined. That means your computers, TVs, cars, home electronics, breaker box, phones, radios, cell phones. It also means the power companies, their generators, the backup generators at hospitals, nursing homes, etc.

      All of the farms and their harvesting equipment is dead. The trucks that move food to the cities are ruined. The trains that move freight around the country are inoperable.

      Every airplane flying crashes. All planes on the down are ruined.

      The only thing working are US conventional forces that happened to be hardened against EMP (which means quite a few of them). Some cars stored in underground parking garages would probably work depending on the proximity.

      There’s no fall out. Nobody dies from the attack directly.

      Day 2:

      With power out people’s fridges are DOA. With no working cars, people don’t go to work. In the country and in the suburbs, people take the food out of their refrigerators and freezers before it “goes bad” and have BBQs. It’s a fun time.

      People who were driving somewhere are mostly able to make it to town. A few people die of heat stroke on their journeys. In the deep south, particularly Florida, there are a number of deaths due to the heat since air conditioning is out.

      In the cities, looting begins quite quickly. The police can’t do much since they’re on foot or on horse.

      We know this sort of thing because we have seen what happens during extended power outages. Of course, in those cases cars, cell phones, and other crucial devices still worked but there was still massive looting in the large cities.

      Day 3:

      Local agencies really don’t know what’s going on since there is no communication. No cell phones. No radio. No land lines. The grid is gone. There are spare parts but no where near enough to fix it all and because of the nature of the electrical grid, all the holes have to be plugged for the juice to flow again. And even if they had enough parts, how do they transport them? No trucks. No cars.

      International relief from Japan, China, Canada (though most of Canada is taken out too), Mexico, Europe begins but it’ll be slow going. Food shipments can reach the coast in a couple of days but getting it inland will be a major problem as the vehicles will have to be transported in along with parts to try to get the railroads working again (along with teams to get dead trains off the rails).

      In the subs, the party is over. It ain’t funny now. People are finishing off what was in their refrigerator. Most people still have some food in the cupboard.

      Stores start rationing their supplies. People are still using money (at least, those who keep cash). A bottle of water is $20. How much cash do you keep in your house?

      In the cities, riots have broken out with widespread destruction. Being July, it’s hot and dry. Fires from the riots start to spread.

      End of Week 1:

      By now, most people in the subs have run out of food they would normally remotely consider eating. Looting at the local Walmart and grocery stores begins as people simply take what they need.

      Remember, people aren’t hearing anything from the authorities. There are no working TVs. No working radios. The handful of police are walking in the subs.

      If you live in the suburbs, take a close look around. How would the police reasonably patrol your city without cars?

      Meanwhile, people in nursing homes have started dying enmasse. Without refrigeration drugs quickly go bad. Anyone requiring help breathing or anything else has already died.

      People with type 1 diabetes are starting to see the writing on the wall.

      Meanwhile, the first container ships of relief have reached San Francisco, Seattle, LA, San Diego, Houston, Miami, Boston, NY, Washington, Raleigh. Lots of food, medicine, some parts, lots of vehicles.

      Unfortunately most of those cities are in utter pandemonium. In the south, tens of thousands have already died from heat. In 2003, when there was a heat wave in France, 14800 people died. They didn’t lose power, they just didn’t have air conditioning. In Florida, the death toll is skyrocketing quickly. Same in most of the other southern states.

      End of Week 2:

      People are starting to die of dysentery from eating bad food, drinking bad water. Many have left the suburbs to head to rural areas where they think there is food (they’re wrong, harvest won’t happen for months, industrialized food processing involves a lot of transportation between the farms and the slaughter houses).

      The typical American family, now out of food and with no access to clean water is starting to get pretty desperate.

      What? Only 2 weeks? How much food do you have in your house right now? Go check. I’ll wait….

      Okay back? So how much is in your pantry? How long would it last you? If you knew at the start, you might have rationed it better. But you didn’t.

      Millions of Americans are wishing they had put those steaks and hamburgers and hotdogs in their basements in the cooler temperatures. Others are wishing they had salted them heavily and cooked them well done to store for the long haul.

      In the cities on the coast, power is restored via backup generators relatively close to shore. However, within 10 miles from the harbor, death is everywhere. Don’t agree?

      Ever been to San Francisco? LA? New York City? 14 days have passed. Where would you have gone? The smart ones, who are able to, would have found their way to the harbors and waited for air lifts of food and such. But most would probably not think about that.

      Meanwhile, armed thugs are starting to systematically go through every building and house looking and taking what they need.

      End of Week 3

      Starvation is starting to become a real problem. If your local law enforcement had a clue, they had already gotten themselves and helpful citizens around to the stores to gather up supplies to start rationing it.

      At this point, martial law has been declared by any competent city government. Some cities decide that, for the public good of course, that all community food will be collected and distributed equally to everyone. In other places, large armed mobs are violently taking what is needed to survive.

      Are you a survivalist? Got all your supplies right? Got MREs in the basement. You have an AK47 that you managed to get quietly at a gun show. Your kids know how to use the two shot guns. You’ve been prepared for this day right? Great. You’re about to die.

      You see, you might be able to keep a few people away. But word got around that you have supplies because you’re that guy who everyone knew was expecting to “bug out” one day when the government and black helicopters came. You might be able to take out a few people but 200+ Nope. You’re going to take a lot of them out but they’re going to come in, kill you, your family, and your supplies.

      What? Don’t agree? People won’t do that? Again: Other than on the coast (in some major cities near harbors anyway) you’ve heard and seen nothing from the government other than the occasional Black Hawk flying around. No TV. No phones. No radios.

      A few people have managed to dig up old HAM radios and they are getting distant broadcasts of reassurance but it’s clear that nothing’s coming any time soon if you live significantly inland, especially if you don’t live in a densely populated area.

      It’s triage at this point and the rural and suburbs areas are simply too spread out. Unfortunately, in the cities, fires have consumed much of them. Anyone strong enough to get out of there has which further distributes the population.

      A few older cars start showing up again on the roads as collectables and just old junkers are fixed up and are able to drive because they didn’t have electronics in them.

      End of the first month:

      A network of outposts are re-established in most large and medium sized cities. Medium sized cities are faring a bit better. Kalamazoo Michigan, Santa Cruz California, and other cities of this kind are doing okay now as convoys are starting to show up.

      Really large cities away from the coast are dead at this point. Sorry Omaha, there’s nobody home anymore.

      The Second Month:

      Now is when the death toll really starts to go up. First, you have about 5% of the population that was on medication to control their mental states. This is now gone. They will mostly die off this month or take out a few others in the process.

      Nearly everyone with Type 1 diabetes has died.

      Virtually who requires assisted care at this point has died.

      Millions of children under 2 have died. Why? Do you have any children? If you’re not nursing them, how are you feeding them at this point?

      There are not many domesticated dogs left that haven’t been freed by owners.

      The number of deer left that are near people has diminished to the point of being difficult to find. Same with geese, ground hogs, rabbits, etc.

      Most cities of any decent size now have an outpost re-established with convoys of food now arriving. However, it’s starting to become a real problem because, well it turns out that the US and Canada supply a significant chunk of the world’s food. 47% of the world’s Soy beans are produced in the United States. 86% of the world’s corn. The bulk of the world’s wheat.

      It’s during this second month that the food shipments to the United States are going to start to dry up as hunger starts to become a significant problem in China, Japan, and other countries that have to import food. The US and Canada make up 20% of the world’s food exports and if you count only basic foods the percentage nearly doubles.

      The world has its first universal consensus: Oh shit.

      It’s at about this time that those who were celebrating in the streets about the downfall of the great satan are starting to get the first thought that yes, they’re going to die too. North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Pakistan, and many other countries are about to see starvation on a level that has never been seen before.

      By contrast, Europe is doing okay. Not great. But okay. Their economies are in ruins but they’re not going to die enmasse.

      In Japan, where starvation is a serious concern, they and Korea have enough money to pay top dollar for the dwindling import food supply. Russia, unfortunately, is about to have a very rough year.

      Needless to say, the food aid shipments to the United States are starting to dwindle. Western Europe, particularly Great Britain, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands are still sending food shipments.

      If you’re on the East coast in a secure area, you’re in good shape. If you’re on the west coast, most of you are going to die.

      Third Month:

      The population of the United States is starting to take on the same appearance it did in 1909.

      Here is what it looked like in the year 2000.

      8% of the poulation was over 70. Nearly all of them have died.

      3% of the population is under 4. Nearly all of them have died.

      Urban populations of the United States have had staggering death tolls, particularly those not near the coasts.

      Anyone requiring medication that needed to be refrigerated in order to live (anti-rejection drugs, insulin, various heart medications, for instance) has died. Easily 10% of the population on top of the above.

      Around 20% of the population has starved.

      Another 10% in the south who are living in places that were uninhabitable without modern technology have died. Think LA is nice? Imagine it without water. Any water.

      In fact, if you live in California, take a look around. Where does your water come from? Most of the population of Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and parts of Utah have died.

      Power is starting to get restored due to generators and the government now had a decent supply of cars. Fixing the grid has become a priority.

      While heat has killed millions in the south, we’re now getting near November. It’s starting to get cold.

      The fourth month

      I tell people who come and interview that Michigan’s southern part is about the same latitude as Northern California. Winters in the upper part of the United States and lower Canada aren’t that bad – if you have heat.

      But we don’t have heat. Natural gas has to be pumped and pumped through a huge network across the country. When power goes out, even for a few days, a lot of infrastructure falls apart. New York’s subways, for example are gone. Much of Chicago has flooded too. Those who have enough propane will be okay, for awhile (at least until armed thugs come and take it).

      By this point, restoring natural gas is not going to be a simple matter of restoring power. Ever wondered how natural gas gets to your house? It’s all repairable but it will take time and unfortunately, a lot of that expertise in people has died or is otherwise unavailable. That means bringing people in which will take more time.

      If you live in northern states at this point, and you haven’t starved to death, you’re probably going to start dying of exposure.

      But that’s a gift compared to what people still struggling to make it in warmer areas as we get reintroduced to cholera, TB, and diarrhea become major problems.

      In fact, in 1900 the #1 cause of death in the United States was pneumonia. The #3 was diarrhea. That’s right. The runs killed more Americans than Heart disease, cancer, strokes, etc. And this November, it returns from retirement as people, without proper sanitation, start to die off from all kinds of things that were previously unheard of.

      In fact, as November closes, the United States has reverted to a third world country. No, that’s not fair. Third world countries usually have electricity and their inhabitants usually know how to start a fire. Do you know how to start a fire without matches and such? Remember watching Survivor and laughing at them? They were in pretty good conditions to get a fire going. You, by contrast, are wet, cold, weakened, and not sure if it’s even a good idea to start a fire because, well, what are you going to do with it? There’s little food.

      On the west coast, food shipments have dropped to a trickle. LA, Seattle, San Fran, it’s not a fun time there now.

      One Year later

      The grid is re-established in the midwest, the east coast, and much of the south. It’s partially re-established on the west coast thanks to help from South Korea, China, and Japan. Thanks guys. We appreciate it even if most of us are dead.

      So what’s the death toll? Conservatively, you’re looking at 40% of the population of the US and Canada has died. That’s probably a best case scenario if food and equipment shipments from the rest of the world come in quickly.

      A smart (well not really smart because the states that sponsor terrorists have died off due to the unintended consequences) terrorist would have also zinged Japan, South Korea, the Chinese east coast, and western Europe. If that happened, you would be looking far higher deaths everywhere as there would be no relief coming in.

      The population of the United States today is over 300 million people. In 1900 it was 76 million. The biggest reason for the increase isn’t due to birth rate but rather the massive decline of the death rate. And remember, they had infrastructure back in 1900. We’d be worse off than they were because they knew how to live back then.

      How many people know how to can food? How many modern Americans know how much wood to cut to burn? How many Americans live in places where they need an elevator, as a practical matter, to get to where they live?

      Heck, how many Americans are simply living today because they have access to all kinds of medical technology? How many Americans are living in places that can only be inhabited thanks to modern technology? Most of the south west was a barren desert until electrical pumps became possible. Much of the south wasn’t, as a practical matter, livable until air condition.

      Also, consider our immune systems of today versus what it was 100 years ago. Our sterilized world has made us very vulnerable to the bacteria and viruses that lurk just outside our electrified civilization. And they would be back to visit within weeks.

      Conclusions

      Is what I describe realistic? Nobody really knows. There are studies out there. The book One Second After is a bit more dire than I think it would be. And it may turn out that our infrastructure is tougher than it seems or that the types of nuclear warheads that an Iran or North Korea could produce aren’t powerful enough to cause the necessary EMP.

      But what is so frightening is how vulnerable we are. It wouldn’t take much of a shove to bring down the electrical grid. You could still end up with a situation where 10% of the American population (30 million) die simply by screwing up the electrical grid for a couple months.

      Do I think this will happen? Probably not. I have a lot of faith in humanity. But when one considers the things that we worry about – global warming comes to mind, it amazes me how unconcerned people are at how easily disrupted our modern lives could be given how dependent we are on our technology today.

  4. Hamsta
    January 4, 2020 at 5:20 pm

    Not the end of the world people. Trump just sent a strong statement that the US is not the pushover it was during the Obama (and Carter) days. Tangentially, it also sends a message to the little rocket man too.

    Regardless of whether you are a MAGA type or a Zionist pretending to be one, there is a reason why even Bush43 did not contemplate invading Iran in 2003. Yes.. even Bush43 was not that stupid. Also, North Korea has demonstrated the capability to obliterate american cities with nuke-tipped ICBMs for over two years now.

    Serious damage can be done to Iran with no boots on the ground. A few well placed bombs will put Iran out of the oil business. The leadership is now well aware that the US might take some potshots at the refineries for openers. The mullahs need money – lots of money to keep the citizens from revolt. They are close to open revolt as it is. Iran is behind the 8-ball and if they see Trump is going to use the leverage, they will eventually back down.

    And you think Iran is not going to react to even a single bomb hitting anywhere within its boundaries. Here is a hint for the geographically challenged.. look at the distance (by road and water) between Iran’s boundaries and major oil installations in the gulf region. They have constantly gamed and refined this scenario for over two decades now. Then again, there is no point wasting time explaining the basics to people who inhabit make-believe worlds.

    • Hamsta
      January 5, 2020 at 5:47 am

      Well, certainly not a MAGA type – Canadian actually. And really old. And the zionist thing is just silly. Not a jew and don’t care a fig about Israel.

      No state is going to lob nukes around in the near future. The only nuke may happen through a terrorist group. If that happens, no state in the world will want to be associated with such an event.

      The whole point is to remind Iran that they are not safe and can’t keep playing the same game. Iran could easily see that provoking an attack on a refinery would force them to retaliate at the US. And they know that the US could easily (no boots on the ground) knock off another re
      finery or more infrastructure. And who will stop them? Nobody. That’s the thing about being a superpower.

      Iran can turn the whole oil producing region of gulf states into a graveyard using just conventional weapons within less than a week. You do realize that gulf states (unlike Iran) are almost totally dependent on large desalination plants for drinking water.. right?

      The US definitely WILL NOT attempt to occupy a nation of 80 million. Stupid and would bankrupt even the US. They don’t have to. High tech conventional weapons will disrupt civilian life over there to (hopefully) foment a popular revolution. Iranians actually had developed a modern society and they liked it. They miss the old days before the ultra -religious element took over government.

      They tried that in 2009 and failed. That game is now over, even if the idiots in DC think otherwise.

      • nyolci
        January 6, 2020 at 12:59 am

        “High tech conventional weapons will disrupt civilian life over there to (hopefully) foment a popular revolution. Iranians actually had developed a modern society and they liked it. They miss the old days before the ultra -religious element took over government.”
        The Iranians are already united behind their government. Apparently you cannot fathom how offensive this assassination was for them, _regardless_ of whether they’ve supported their government or not. More generally, bombing people to persuade them to attack their government is the most delusional bullshit from the US propaganda. The US is widely hated in Iraq and Afghanistan for this. They did it in Vietnam, with the inevitable failure too.

      • Hamsta
        January 6, 2020 at 5:24 am

        It is an interesting problem. Can remote bombing effect any change ? The US was, at least until recently, interested in securing land bases (and oil) through attempts at political change. I think they have finally given up on trying to download “democracy” and western culture to secure bases for influence and force projection. But the cost of invasion is obviously huge – and for what really? The gains of actually invading Iran aren’t worth the candle.

        Bur economic sanctions and the occasional show of violence may keep Iran in check. Ultimately the west doesn’t want Iran to have nukes. Its OK if the US is widely hated in the sandbox. Its just important that America is feared. In the middle east, the things they understand really well is power, opportunism and revenge. That wont change.

    • nyolci
      January 6, 2020 at 9:34 am

      “Bur economic sanctions and the occasional show of violence may keep Iran in check.”
      “Its just important that America is feared.”
      The point is exactly that NOT ANY LONGER. These days are over. Actually they were over in 2006 already when Hezbollah defeated Israel. But the thing is that now everyone knows this crystal clearly. US is not feared and what the US does has less and less effect on anyone. The US has lost it. The thing is that whatever it does that just hastens the inevitable collapse. This move from Trump was extremely idiotic and it may transform a long but bearable collapse into a sudden one. Again, everyone (including Western “experts”) knows this.

  5. Gern Blanderson
    January 5, 2020 at 6:00 am

    Israel has been hitting Iranian targets for years and doing calculated attacks, but Iran never responds with anything scary. There will not be retaliation for this recent U.S. assassination of the Iranian general because Iran can’t respond. They have proved that they do not respond. Maybe they are weaker than we anticipated.

    Keep saying that to yourself. You do realize that most of the so-called Israeli attacks targeted the Syrian armed forces? The number of Iranian assets in Syria are far less than your realize or want to believe. But now watch what happens when the gloves come off..

    FYI.. Israel has not been able to win an unambiguous victory in a land war with anybody since early 1980s. They got their behind handed to them in the 2006 Lebanon War by a paramilitary force. The ME has changed a lot since the 1970s.

  6. January 5, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    USA (still a fledgling nation considering the lessons of history) is the cats paw of a strange 5000 year old regime.

  7. The Watcher
  8. Rum
    January 6, 2020 at 3:37 pm

    The only significant source of hard currency for Iran is the sale of some oil and (mainly) refined products. Refineries can be easily destroyed and kept destroyed by air assault from many different US systems. There is nothing Iran can do to stop that scenario. I am sure that they could hit back in one of several ways, but ask yourself, what would be the strategic advantage of doing so? Pure revenge, or “because it feels good” is not a strategy and it would not do one thing to keep the lights on in Tehran for the next decade or so..
    There will be no “war” with Iran over this.

    Perhaps you might want to read a previous post on this topic before making such hilarious statements- oddly reminiscent of Indians who will believe any crap a white man in an expensive suit will tell them. Long story short, Iran has many time the missiles (including the correct types) necessary to turn the oil infrastructure and desalination plants of Saudi Arabia and Gulf States into burnout shells. How long can millions in people in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States survive without water? How long can western European countries on on > 400$ per gallon oil. We might find that out very soon..

    https://dissention.wordpress.com/2019/06/24/some-thoughts-on-how-a-war-between-iran-and-usa-might-unfold/

  9. Rum
    January 6, 2020 at 5:39 pm

    During the long “cold war” a lot of theories were developed about how one side could win a conflict with an WMD armed opponent.
    It was never talked about much in public, but the contours of the favored scheme sorta became known – if you knew where to look…
    1. Hit a hard blow that does real damage completely by surprise.
    2. Inform the other side that if they do much in response you will destroy the (surviving) members of the ruling class.
    This is exactly what DJT has done. I mean, this was a complete surprise and it really hurt the regime. That is to say, he showed that he was fully willing to hurt them… personally. And he did it in a way that left the Mullahs in no doubt that their own meat sacks could be next.

    I have had more fun the last 3 years being a Trump fan than have any of his haters.

    Has that strategy ever worked? It didn’t work in the Korean war when USA had a near monopoly on nukes in early part of conflict. It did not work in Vietnam, and if anything, backfired pretty badly. What makes you think it will work in Iran when it also failed in Iraq and Afghanistan? Repeating the same mistake again and again is evidence of mental retardation or magical thinking, or both.

  10. Rum
    January 6, 2020 at 5:52 pm

    Sure, the Mullahs could threaten Trumps people in the same way. And I could threaten G d.
    Neither thing is going to happen.
    That is because I am a believer in an after life and the Molazaehs are not.
    None of my people ever sent our own children to march into a minefield.

  11. Rum
    January 6, 2020 at 5:56 pm

    Ha ha.
    I was never tried in those instances. The trigger stayed un-pulled. Ho Xi Meng died of old age.

  12. doldrom
    January 6, 2020 at 6:06 pm

    The MSM just keeps reiterating points that are completely implausible and incredible on the face of it, if you just pause to think about it.

    [1] Soleimani was on the cusp of enacting large scale plans detrimental to US interests.
    How could killing him possibly prevent these plans from being executed? Were General Miller and Soleimani the only parties privy to these plans? That seems at odds with any large scale action plan. Can anybody please explain how taking out a single commander is a way to thwart existing military or political plans from being executed?

    [2] China and Russia will be so happy to see the US involved in yet another quagmire.
    This is like the irritating lane jockey in rush hour traffic who annoys and endangers others’ live to move ahead one position in a traffic jam, looking triumphantly about him as he move up a single car length. He is assuming that he is winning at a game everyone is competing in. The dork doesn’t realize that nobody else is playing his game. China and Russia have already explicitly said what their goals are. Russia wants to modernize the country and its economy by forming partnerships with Western parties. The idea that Putin is all about revanchisme and competing for hegemony is simply psychological project of America’s own motives. China wants to build a sustainable stable consumer economy and move up the value chain in services and manufacturing. Problems in the straits of Hormuz will not benefit those goals. China and Russia want to see an international system based on UN ajudication and diplomacy and would love a security architecture that doesn’t force them to spend so much on defence. So they are not happy at more rogue nation cowboy antics.

    [3] Soleimani was a bad guy and leaving Iraq now will hinder fighting ISIS.
    Actually, no one has done more to combat ISIS than Soleimani and the PMUs (whose commanders the US is blowing up). Christian PMUs in Iraq regard Soleimani as their saviour (the Christian populations in Iraq and Syria have been reduced from 1.7 million to 120 thousand and from 1.5 million to 300 thousand respectively). Do you think they are marionets in the hands of Muslim Ayatollahs in Persia? It is precisely the destruction of ISIS by Soleimani that makes the American policy establishment so mad at having their Wahabi Saudi-financed foreign legions thwarted. Nobody in the MSM will ever ask themselves how this “bad” guy can be such a larger than life inspiration to millions across the Muslim world, millions of times more inspiring as a leader of the “axis of resistance” than Trump or Pompeo will ever be in the West.
    By the way, threatening to blow up cultural monuments is reminiscent of the Taliban blowing up the Bamiyan Buddhas, or ISIS ransacking Palmyra and the ancient treasure of Babylon. And Soleimani was travelling on a diplomatic passport on a mission to Bagdhad in which the Iraqi prime minister was trying at American request (!) to mediate and de-escalate tensions between Saudi and Iran in the Gulf.

    [4] The murder was some awesome intelligence scoop.
    … one Republican foreign policy analyst had this to say: “We’ve known every minute of every day where Soleimani is for years—there’s no moment of any given day where five or six intelligence agencies can’t tell you where he is,” according to Politico. “It’s been one of his talking points: The Americans can find me any time, they just don’t dare hit me.”

    [5] So Trump was playing a round of golf, and was suddenly hit by an idea on how to solve the Mid-East problem, so he got all the generals and the Senate war party to come to Florida to tell them what to do.
    Trump was forced by the war party, who have him over a barrel with the impeachment threat, to finally acquiesce in the long-term neocon/Israeli wish to start a war with Iran. Trump probably decided nothing. If this actually results in the US being kicked out of Iraq and Syria, it will be tolerable to think of it as 5D chess, although there is still debate about who the chess master and who the pawns are.

  13. Rum
    January 6, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    I mean, first actually pull the trigger on them hard, out of the blue. Then threaten to pull it HARD if they so much as quiver.
    The late Hermann Kahn was actually a nice man when he was not obssessing about mega death.

  14. Rum
    January 6, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    Why do important people show so much enthusiasm for playing golf in the middle of huge green fields and hanging out in big Yatchs off shore?
    A valid and enforceable expectation of privacy.
    You wanna do a serious merger or make a trade with the POTUS?
    Then figure this one out quick.

  1. January 7, 2020 at 8:17 am
  2. January 12, 2020 at 7:13 pm
  3. January 16, 2020 at 6:40 pm

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