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More Thoughts on Trump’s Latest Idiotic Move to Start a War with Iran

In my previous post on this topic, I wrote that the extremely stupid decision by Trump to approve the assassination of Qasem Soleimani will have very significant and long-lasting effects on the geopolitical environment in the Middle-East. For starters, it is now virtually guaranteed that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons and ICBMs- mostly likely within next 2-3 years. They have seen the difference that acquiring such weapons made to the security environment of DPRK- a significantly smaller and poorer country than Iran. The assassination of Soleimani is also the final nail in the coffin for the influence of LIEbral faction within their government which had argued for better relationships with USA (and the rapidly declining west) through bad comprises such as JCPOA.

Events since Iran signed that worthless agreement have shown that hardliners who opposed to be far more realistic than the greedy LIEbrals who deluded themselves into thinking that USA (and west in general) would honor international treaties. The upcoming years will see a far harder shift in their foreign policy towards China, and away from catamite states in western Europe. In any case, the west (especially USA) are no longer producers of any resources or products which the world needs- let alone scientific or technological innovation. And now we shall talk a bit more about how Iran is likely to avenge the untimely death of Soleimani. As you will see, they have far more options than the credentialed idiots who appear on, and write in, western corporate media outlets are capable of imagining. We live in interesting times..

1] One of most obvious, but ignored, ways that Iranians could take revenge for Soleimani would be to go after Trump and his progeny. While this would be easier if Trump loses in 2020, they could go after his idiotic progeny even earlier. And it is much easier than you think give that this progeny often travel to countries that are far away from USA and Iran has the organisational capabilities of a large nation state, not some pipsqueak terrorist group. They are also likely counting on his low popularity among many Americans to make any such outcome far more acceptable than it would be otherwise. It would also be an especially audacious and very fitting response to the assassination of Soleimani. While something like this might seem unlikely to most Americans, let me remind you that we are not living in ‘normal’ times.

2] People such as Pompeo, Bolton, Esper, certain advisers to the Trump administration, yappy Chihuahua such as Marc Rubio and Lindsey Graham, rich Zionist donors to the Trump campaigns might also be targeted for assassination by Iran. They present far easier targets than Trump and depending on how things work out, they could put the fear of god into many more. It also helps that many of Trump’s advisers on foreign policy seem to be either Zionist or have strong Zionist sympathies- making them especially enticing targets for Iran. Also a lot of these people have to travel far more and have much less of a security detail than somebody such as Trump and his family. I wonder if idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton have considered that possibility.

3] Regardless of whether Israel was directly, or indirectly, involved in this assassination- it is reasonable to assume that Iran is now going to explicitly target senior Israeli officials and their families. While there was a peculiar unwritten truce between those two countries on the issue of killing members of each other’s government officials- that is now history. It is even more likely that Iran will target Israel assets working in Middle-Eastern countries, regardless of the passports they hold. It will get especially ugly in places where both countries have a presence.. such as Lebanon, Turkey, UAE etc. For too long, people working for that country have felt protected. This is likely the end of that era. It would not be surprising if Iran also started targeting people from that country when they were on vacation in other countries.

4] We cannot also forget the extent of dislike between rulers of Sunni gulf states and Iran. Once again, for a long time this dislike did not degenerate into trying to kill each others rulers and senior government officials. But things have changed now, and what was once unthinkable is now firmly within the realms of possibility. Expect lots of random bombings etc targeting gulf royalty and senior government officials in those countries. I also predict that the uneasy ‘truce’ between Iran and Saudi Arabia is finally over and one can expect Iran to start pouring weapons in Shia areas of Saudi Arabia. Things are about to get very interesting in those countries. It is hard to predict where this is all going to lead, but it will be interesting to watch.

5] While it is a foregone conclusion that Iran will now target american soldiers and mercenaries in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc- we should not forget their native support staff. See.. for each american solider or mercenary, there are probably 5-20 local people who support their presence. It certainly helps that targeting the ‘help’ would be far more easier, and rewarding, for Iran. Very few people are willing to make an extra buck if such a gig comes with a reduced life-expectancy for themselves and their families. This outcome is especially likely in Iraq and Afghanistan, where there is no shortage of other locals (proxies) who hate those who work for whatever is left of the american occupation. Readers might have noticed that most of the possible actions Iran might take in response to Soleimani assassination are not conventional warfare.

In an upcoming part, I will go into some detail about what conventional warfare options are available to Iran. As you will see, they are far more numerous than most “credentialed” western idiots in the MSM are willing to admit.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. emery
    January 7, 2020 at 9:49 am

    What if the US simply leaves the region? There’s been a lot of misdirection on whether Trump is gonna sign for the evacuation or not but leaving would help alleviate a lot of what you mentioned. A US vacumn would let the local powers, Iraqi government, Isreal, etc step into power in the region which would probably consume all of the time and resources of Iran and ISIS along with everyone else scrambling for stability and leadership.

    • Yusef
      January 7, 2020 at 12:38 pm

      The US isn’t going to simply leave the region, especially now. If there were any option of leaving the region, it is gone. One way or another it is hopelessly entangled there, and this makes it much, much worse. We’re going to be lucky if we don’t end up in a disastrous war now.

      Our foreign policy and the way our defense department has made decisions has been controlled by oil companies, among others. That’s not going to change. What’s good for the oil companies isn’t what’s good for most Americans or other citizens of planet earth, so it is no good to think in terms of what would be good for 99.999% of humanity, or make sense for them.

  2. Orson
    January 7, 2020 at 11:42 am

    It seems to me that OP has let his feelings/wishes get in the way in this series of posts rather than facts.

    That remains to be seen. Over the years, many of my supposedly outrageous predictions have come true.

    Although everything you wrote above seems plausible and no doubt Iran is capable of striking such targets, it can eventually lead to escalation and more retaliation from US.

    You do realize that Iran can invade and occupy Saudi Arabia and all other gulf states within a couple of weeks. Want to see what Iran can do with millions of hostages including hundreds of thousands of western white citizens?

    In that scenario, Iran is completely surrounded by american bases in the region and all over the world + aircraft carriers and warships that can close in. Some of the bases are located in nations that are hostile (S.Arabia, Israel) to Iran and if they are targeted those countries will jump into action together with US. In the meantime, US mainland is secure from every threat, having two vast oceans as natural barriers and non hostile neighbours. It can afford to sustain a remote technological war (no boots on the ground) for decades that can bring Iran’s infrastructure to it’s knees.

    And where are western Europe, Japan etc going to get their oil from? How long can their economies survive without most of their hydrocarbon fuel supply? And do you think that Iran won’t develop and test nukes and ICBMs? Who knows, they may even get some help in that area from countries such as China?

    • Yusef
      January 7, 2020 at 12:26 pm

      “Although everything you wrote above seems plausible and no doubt Iran is capable of striking such targets, it can eventually lead to escalation and more retaliation from US.”

      This is a very interesting comment, and under ordinary circumstances I would agree.

      By ordinary circumstances, I mean if the US was acting according to a foreign policy in accord with the long term interests of the world’s super power. Of these interests, foremost would be enforcing “international law” and compliance with treaties and forms of orderly commerce, etc. These would be in the long term interests of the super power because ultimately these procedures maintain the status quo. The status quo of the US at the top of the heap.

      The problem is, the US is the one breaking all the rules and acting as a terrorist, rogue nation. It is acting rashly. It is acting in a way suggesting saner and more sound minds in Washington, D.C. are not being heeded and indeed are being circumvented. (This was clearly the case here, for we know the assassination had been considered during Bush43 and Obama administrations for anticipated probable consequences we’re now terrified to consider may become reality.)

      What this means is that Iran might fear escalation and more retaliation from the US no matter what they do. They might fear these more if they seek no revenge and perform no retaliation and revenge of their own, than if they proceed rationally and continue to assume (or is it wish and fantasize?) the US will proceed rationally and “in good faith.” Iran wanted better relations with the west and the US and this is what they got…. So if I was them, I wouldn’t be as inclined to sit there and expect this will protect them from the US taking advantage of them sitting there and crushing them all the more thoroughly.

      Do you see what I mean? The most important thing in AD’s post, from my point of view, is that the US has in its blundering stupidity opened up a lot of previously “unthinkable” options making the world a much more dangerous place. Instead of promoting stability and predictability, it has promoted treachery and confusion. (I’m repeating myself.)

    • January 8, 2020 at 8:42 pm

      Kumar “Death to America” Sukhdeep-Dikshit, Ph.D., is just fapping over his fantasies of his own country the USA being destroyed in a nuclear cataclysm by his Iranian ideological allies. He does not realize they have been thwarted by the supreme chad God-Emperor. Hahahahaha…..


  3. doldrom
    January 7, 2020 at 3:57 pm

    There are a lot of problems with your revenge suggestions:
    [1] Targeting Trump et al has already been ruled out as a form of revenge. According to Shia leaders, these people are not even worth Soleimani’s shoes, and killing them would be like stealing shit to compensate for the theft of gold.

    That is what they are saying in public. The key words in that sentence are ‘in public’.

    [2] Shia leaders have explicitly ruled out killing Americans, other than those representing the American armed forces.

    Ah.. but they can’t control all their ‘proxies’.

    [3] Iran’s ayatollah’s have often repeated that nuclear weapons are haram. It would be very difficult to reverse themselves and hold on to their claim to authority (on which their power is based).

    After seeing how beneficial the acquisition of nukes was for DPRK, I doubt they think that in private.

    [4] Everything said up till now seems to point to revenge in the form of political change in the Gulf, mainly getting rid of any US influence/military. How realistic this is is hard to judge. Iran will do everything to avoid conventional warfare with the US. Usrael will do everything to stage false flags as an excuse to get their war against Iran, whose main offense is insolence and disobedience in the face of American hegemony.

    I am not so sure.. they have many more options for direct warfare than you realize.

    Finally, the real reason the American foreign policy establishment is obsessed with the Gulf is oil and energy. They are convinced that their control of the oil spigot is where their power comes from. WW2 was a war for oil, certainly for Japan (which was cut off from oil and went to Manchuria and Indonesia to get it), but also for Germany (Urals, Azerbaijan, Romania). Control of the oil spigot not only allows them to control other nations directly (just look at all the foment over Russian gas), but the petrodollar is in fact the gold in today’s financial system. Americans need the petrodollar to keep current levels of spending (and military expenditures), and their control of dollar securities (virtually all fx, bond, derivatives, and stocks are cleared via New York) and dollar transactions (sanctions, Swift). Oil is what backs world currency.

    Too much based on the world as it existed prior to 2005. We have gone past that point over a decade ago.

    • Yusef
      January 8, 2020 at 12:44 pm

      “Everything said up till now seems to point to revenge in the form of political change in the Gulf, mainly getting rid of any US influence/military. How realistic this is is hard to judge. Iran will do everything to avoid conventional warfare with the US. Usrael will do everything to stage false flags as an excuse to get their war against Iran, whose main offense is insolence and disobedience in the face of American hegemony.”

      It is not at all hard to judge how realistic it would be to rid the Gulf of U.S influence/military. This is completely and utterly unrealistic. Short of the downfall of the American empire everywhere the US will not leave. What’s interesting is the way your final paragraph does a good job outlining why.

      It must be you basically disagree with AD that this assassination is a game changer or else you wouldn’t reiterate the prior Iranian positions and policies as if they might still apply. The Iranians are already talking in terms of revenge so it is no longer true “Iran will do everything to avoid conventional warfare with the US.” What the US has done is force the Iranians into a double bind, damned if you do and damned if you don’t, situation. You may know there was once a theory of schizophrenia as the result of parents placing children in such a situation. The kids can’t remain rational any more than they can go swimming but not go near the water.

    • doldrom
      January 10, 2020 at 2:03 am

      I agree with most of you comments, especially the so-called proxies which include Arab Christians. But the MSM continually conflates all these parties and pretends Arab Christians, Yazidi, or Kurds are taking marching orders from Muslims in Persia, and I am limiting the scope of “revenge” to actual Iranian actors.
      In terms of energy/money, it is very much pre-2005, but then so is the American foreign policy establishment … they’re pre-1989 and pre-1968 in many ways, and their use of dollar sanctions has never been greater.
      As for conventional war, I still think Iran will try to limit escapades with American bomber runs on Teheran, Qom, or Isfahan and closing Hormuz if their hand is not forced … they have so far managed to checkmate the Americans on all the chess boards with asymmetric means and are likely to continue to prefer political and local resistance to outright confrontation.

  4. Rum
    January 8, 2020 at 2:25 pm

    Maybe I should have typed “there will be no war with Iran over this” much louder.
    See, real wars start over real strategic interests – or at least the perception of them anyway.
    Symbolic issues, like the life or death of a figurehead/politician, beget symbolic actions.
    No one in Iran gave that much of a fuk about this guy despite the street theater-hysteria and a lot were glad he was taken out without them having to be associated with the act.
    The many folks in Iran who hated and feared the now dead asshole are now somehow eager to suffer greatly to avenge him???
    He was a politician with friends and enemies. He was not the survival of the Iranian state.

  5. January 10, 2020 at 6:02 am

    This is stupid.

  6. Chrysalis
    January 10, 2020 at 9:27 am

    I think your premise is wrong, as in Trumps actions will result in a war with Iran. I believe Trumps actions will deescalate the US-Iran tensions, and as far as I can follow the aftermath, that is exactly what happened/is happening.

    The facts you noted how a war with Iran is pointless, a catastrophy etc. are true, however it is pointless as the basic premise is wrong.

  1. January 12, 2020 at 7:13 pm
  2. January 16, 2020 at 6:40 pm

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