Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Some Updates on the Accuracy of Recent Ballistic Missile Strikes by Iran

Some Updates on the Accuracy of Recent Ballistic Missile Strikes by Iran

In past couple of weeks, I have written a few posts (link 1, link 2, link 3 and link 4) about recent development in the Middle-East, specifically the rapidly deteriorating relations between Iran and USA.. which are now deep in negative territory. To be fair, they have never been close to positive territory since the 1979 revolution which overthrew their american puppet ruler. However recent developments in that region, specifically the assassination of Qasem Soleimani have pushed the course of events into what is now an irreversible pathway which results in Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and ICBMs within next few years, at the very least. However too many retarded and old white american jingos are busy deluding themselves into believing that Trump had “contained” Iran or some other bullshit fantasies likely fueled by reading too much fantasy aka Tom Clancy novels. Meanwhile events in the real world are increasingly pointing to a very different outcome.

As many of you know, after the assassination of Soleimani, Iran launched over a dozen ballistic missiles at two (or three?) american bases in Iraq. The majority were directed at the Al Assad Airbase in Iraq, which was allegedly where the drone that targeted Soleimani was launched from. While many “objective” western commentators are busy pretending that the strikes were not effective or accurate. Most american jingos also seem to have swallowed that bullshit, largely because it appears to validate whatever delusion they want to believe. Let us face it, telling people lies they want to hear has always been a pathway to fame, money and respectability. In fact, that has always been the modus operandi for priests of every single traditional and secular religion throughout human history. But let us get back to topic at hand..

As it turns out, the Iranian SRBM (Short Range Ballistic Missile) strikes were far more accurate than almost all “credentialed experts” were willing to accept- especially in public. One Iranian missile obliterated a housing trailer at the Ain al-Assad air base. Another missile destroyed a dining facility, which had been closed on the night of the attack as a precautionary measure but would normally have been open at that time. Given that the base in question is fairly large, the fact that Iran was able to accurately hit specific individual buildings known to used by american personnel tells you a lot about how accurate their missiles are under real-life conditions. But why does it matter? Well for starters, it confirms what Iran has been telling the world about the capability of its ballistic missiles. And we already know from that attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, that their cruise missiles are also accurate enough to pick out building sized targets.

But what are the real-life implications of Iran having hundreds to thousands of missiles (ballistic and cruise) accurate and long-ranged enough to target individual buildings within a thousand or two thousand miles of the Iranian border? To understand that, let me ask you a question.. Do you know the difference between Combat Radius and Ferry Range for an aircraft? To summarize, combat radius is the maximum distance you can fly on a military mission with a standard combat payload and still expect to return to the airbase you took off from. In contrast, the ferry range measures how far an unladen aircraft with maximum fuel can fly in one direction with about 10% fuel left at the time of expected landing. As it turns out the vast majority of modern american combat aircraft have a combat radius of less than 800 miles (~ 1300 km). And this is not just an american thing, as similar aircraft from other countries have about the same combat range.

In other words, the ability to bomb Iran around the clock would require USA to station aircraft, crew, support staff and equipment within the range of Iranian missiles that are accurate enough to consistently destroy individual buildings at that distance. See.. in previous conflicts such as the two Iraq wars, their opponent simply did not have missiles accurate enough to blow up individual building-sized targets at that range. In contrast to that, Iran has thousands of missiles accurate enough to make it basically impossible for USA to safely use airbases within the combat radius of most aircraft in its inventory. Now some of you might say.. what about using B-52s or B-1s based in Diego Garcia with ALCMs. Well.. if you did that Iran would start targeting important buildings, power stations, water desalination plants and airports all over the Middle-East, including Israel.

As some of you might know, there are millions of expats (including westerners) living in Gulf States. Try to imagine the chaos that such missile hits could create in cities such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, Khobar etc. Heck, even if Iran hit a few major buildings in each city, there would be an exodus of millions who would want to flee those cities immediately. Given that all those cities are in countries which are basically arid deserts, even a limited escalation could cause a humanitarian catastrophe in that region- to say nothing about its effect on political stability in that region. And yes, it would totally disrupt the flow of oil and gas from those countries- even if the facilities themselves were not hit. To make a long story short, the USA will have to start providing large-scale humanitarian aid to gulf states starting the day after it attacks Iran. Then there is the small matter of global oil availability and prices.

But why does any of this matter again? Well.. because the current occupant of the white house is an orange buffoon under political stress due to the bullshit scam of impeachment who is advised by christian doomsday-types (Pompeo, Pence etc) and Zionist neocons (too many to name) whose grasp on reality is tenuous- at best. Also, wars often start in the most unexpected ways and cannot be controlled or moderated once unleashed. It could get ugly very quickly.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. P Ray
    January 16, 2020 at 8:14 pm

    Yup, the media as usual mistook “lack of deaths by missile strike” as evidence of “those missiles are not accurate” … when the purpose of that strike was to demonstrate accuracy and unstoppability.

    The ability to introduce chaos into the lives of rich and connected people is also a sure way to ensure they don’t interfere with your way of life.

    • plus d'un cafard
      January 17, 2020 at 9:44 am

      Your last sentence might explain the survival of Putin’s Russia. Putin has assassins whose effectiveness is demonstrated regularly. The powerful people trying to steer the West have children.

  2. Jack Sparrow
    January 17, 2020 at 9:51 am

    Real accurate in taking out a passenger Boeing plane, eh?

  3. Johnny the Pool Guy
    January 17, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    Iran wants the US out, and Trump’s original intention was to withdraw before Russiagate forced him to stay. Therefore both Trump and Iran have a common interest in US withdrawal. Trump is in a better position now to stand up to these powerful interests. The war scare has introduced a sobering element. Republican senators have urged Trump to de-escalate. Russia, China, and Turkey have spoken against any escalation. Therefore, Trump possibly can turn the situation to the advantage of his original aim to withdraw from the Middle East and restore normal relations with Russia. Trump’s appalling decisions and explanations are largely a product of the vulnerable position he has been put in by three years of CIA, FBI, and Democratic Party efforts to remove him from the presidency. Now that vulnerability has shifted to his opponents, unless they physically assassinate him, Trump may yet prevail with his peace agenda.

  4. Rum
    January 17, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    Iran knows that it might take out with missiles some local high value targets. They also know that DJT can take out all of their ultimate value targets before the next sunrise. And have fun doing it.

    Would that be before or after they evacuate the approximately 50k american troops within range of Iranian missiles, which have been shown to highly accurate? Did I mention Iran had a few thousands of them, in both hard to hit caves and mobile launchers dispersed throughout the country?

    Also is any gulf state stupid enough to let USA use its airports to launch a strike on Iran? So where are the planes going to take off from? Not to mention the additional threat of missile launches at those bases. How many thousands of bodybags will come back to USA within the first few days of such a war?

    The only other option, launching strikes from Diego Garcia effectively restricts USA to using ALCMs from B-52s and B-1s. Do you think Iranian’s have no defense against ALCMs? Also you are not factoring the size of Iran as well as the location of its major cities. Try looking it up on Google maps.

    You apparently haven’t read the post properly.. have you?

    • doldrom
      January 18, 2020 at 2:25 pm

      The alleged TOR missile that took out the passenger plane:
      “The Tor missile system of the Soviet Union was specifically designed from the outset to shoot down the AGM-86.” [ALCMs launched from B-52s and B-1s]

  5. nipponflash
    January 18, 2020 at 1:26 am

    Your idea that Iran has thousands of long range guided missiles capable of striking deep within SA and UAE only proves my point that you’ve lost all touch with reality. They’d have more than China.


    Have you considered that many of Iran’s anti-ship cruise missiles are unusually long-ranged for that class and capable of striking land targets? They are also very accurate. They also produce effective and accurate cruise missiles with a range of about 1500km or more.

    In reality, their combined long range precision arsenal is likely below 500, with more than 100 meter-precision hits highly unlikely due to satnav jamming and some THAAD/PAC-3MSE action. Note that terminal manuevers designed to avoid interceptors eat away at precision.

    You do realize that Iran has demonstrated that its missiles (ballistic and cruise) have sub-10m accuracy using just inertial guidance and terrain maps and/or DSMAC type systems.. right? THAAD is for IRBMs and has never been successfully tested under realistic combat situations. Also its launchers can be targeted by cruise missiles as can those launching PAC-3MSEs.

    In fact, I grew tired of you some 4 years ago when you stopped making sense, probably because you ran out of well though-out material and were forced to pump up quickly made up tabloid-like garbage to keep the numbers up. What a shame.

    Maybe you should read a bit more about the specifications of weapon systems and factor in their real-life performance before blabbing about their capability.

    • P Ray
      January 18, 2020 at 11:15 am

      Wow, with such amazing defence systems surely the US and their allies could have crushed North Korea … so why haven’t they done so?

      … probably because in order to use missile defences, you also have to make sure that your bombers, fighters and air transport are not in the area too. See how “defence” only applies to very strict constraints?

      But ya, if the US and their allies are so great, I definitely would like to see them start by taking on North Korea.

      The dirty secret of all missile defense system is that very few have been shown to work under real-life conditions. At best, point defense against cruise missiles and very old SCUDs (no warhead separation) is kinda possible.

    • nipponflash
      January 23, 2020 at 10:10 am

      It means 100 precise strikes. Iran has about 500 precise ballistic and cruise missiles capable of deep strike, with about 100 hits likely. It has nowhere near your suggested thousands. It took Russia 20 years to make 1500. These things are not easily built. It is possible, though, that they are producing some 50 – 100 a year – but just now. Also, you lack of mention of weapons like SLAM-ER suggest limited knowledge.

      Iran can definitely wreak havoc if it releases variola or if it has weaponized anthrax in those warheads. But it can not deliver fatal blow, not even remorely, via high explosive warheads on its missiles.

      You should read a bit more about how many ICBMs the former USSR built.. trust me, it is a rather large number. But more importantly, it is far easier, faster and cheaper to build SRBMs. North Korea could deploy over a thousand SRBMs when it was struggling between 1993 and 2003. Also they are small and light enough to be carried and launched from barely modified commercial vehicles. The same is true for cruise missiles. So ya.. Iran having over 1K SRBMS is very firmly within the realms of reality.

      Your grasp of realism is pretty poor. If Iran wanted to use bioweapons, missiles are the most inefficient and risky ways of delivering them. Perhaps you should think through the feasibility, risk and utility of the scenarios you propose. Or maybe you think all non-white people are idiots. I am guessing the later.. which is why USA has not won a single major armed conflict since the end of WW2. The real world has different constraints and possibilities than some shitty Hollywood movie script or Tom Clancy novel.

      • nipponflash
        January 24, 2020 at 8:37 am

        NK built over a thousand precise ballistic missiles with over ~ 400 km range between 1993 and 2003? That’s news to me. All those intelligence communities though that the had only couple of 70 km range Tochka variants at that point as far as precise missiles go + some prototypes. Also, I was not talking about the height of CW. Also, anthrax submunitions do work, so ur wrong there, too. Your fantasy of Iran being capable of delivering 2000 – 9000 precise hits “thousands” deep into Saudi Arabia is just that – a fantasy. It might get to that point in 10 years but no way it does have this capability now.

  6. January 18, 2020 at 10:48 am

    off topic…

    the irony kills me here…

    https://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-joy-covey-killed-company-delivery-van-report-2019-12

    Agree.. it was darkly comic.

  7. OhioStater
    January 20, 2020 at 4:43 pm

    What it tells me is that we’re now a society that has to lie to itself.

  8. Shlomo Goldsteinberg
    January 22, 2020 at 9:55 am

    I suspect like the earlier missile strike on targets in Saudi Arabia some of the Iranian missiles failed, so by now the US military has figured out how the missiles are guided to their targets, it won’t be long before Counter measures can be deployed, also our closest ally Israel have been upgrading their iron Dome system, we should give them $10 or $20 billion and deploy the system in all bases close to Iran, once that is done we can begin air strikes against the terrorist regime, its in our vital national interest

  9. MikeCA
    January 22, 2020 at 11:36 am

    Thank you for the Russian intelligence analysis of Iranian missile capabilities.

    You mean.. just like the person who wrote this article?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/how-a-quantum-change-in-missiles-has-made-iran-a-far-more-dangerous-foe/2020/01/07/63020a0c-30c7-11ea-9313-6cba89b1b9fb_story.html

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