Home > Uncategorized > An Unusual Observation about Ongoing Coronavirus Outbreak in China

An Unusual Observation about Ongoing Coronavirus Outbreak in China

As mentioned in the previous post on this topic, it is my opinion that the coronavirus outbreak in China is far more hype than reality. To be clear, I am not denying that a bit over 700 people are dead from this particular outbreak at the time of writing this post. Then again, a few thousand people die from influenza and its many complications in USA every single year- in a ‘good’ year. My point is that we should look at the actual evidence to make decisions and prognostications rather than let racism and stupidity make them. With that in mind, here is an odd feature of this current outbreak which sorta validates my initial assessment. It began with an observation about the prognosis of 2019-nCov infections outside China.

As some of you might have heard there are over a couple of hundred confirmed infections of this specific virus outside China, but only one death- thus far. So what is going on? Why is the death rate of patients outside China less than 1%? After posing this question on twitter, I got an interesting reply in the form of an attached table- based on available data from two days ago. Have a look at highlighted row- specifically the low death rate of patients in China (0.21 %) outside Wuhan and the province of Hubei. Note that this rate is rather close to that of cases outside China (0.39%). So, what is going on? Why does the fatality rate for this outbreak drop depending on your distance from Wuhan (4.11%), even in the province of Hubei (0.81%)?

Now let us consider and go through a few hypothesis which might provide an explanation for this unusual pattern. But before we do that, let me say something that is obvious but has to be stated for the benefit of delusional white racists. The numbers provided by Chinese government seem to be as accurate as those which would be provided by the american government under similar circumstances. This is bolstered by the fact that this outbreak seems to noticeably less deadly (on a percentage basis) than SARS. Let me remind you that SARS killed 43 people or almost 20% of the people who got infected in Canada and almost all nations with more than 10 cases ended up with mortality rates over 10%. On to the hypotheses..

1] Are people of Chinese ancestry more susceptible to infection by 2019-nCov and die from it? While the overwhelming majority of those infected and dead, so far, are of Chinese ancestry, the significantly lower death rates outside city of Wuhan (but still in Hubei) suggest that ethnicity and race are unlikely to be an important factor. Also, the majority of 2019-nCov cases outside China (to date) have occurred in travelers of Chinese ancestry from China. In other words, there is no real evidence that people of Chinese ancestry are somehow more susceptible to infection by 2019-nCov or die from it. They were just at the wrong place at a bad time.

2] The virus strain inside Wuhan is different, and more lethal, than the one outside that city? While its certainly possible that more than one strain of 2019-nCov is in circulation, the evidence we have so far suggests that all known isolates are extremely similar and have jumped into human hosts very recently. Having said that, it is common for RNA-based viruses such as Coronaviruses to mutate from more lethal strains into less lethal ones which spread more easily. Need I remind you that some species of coronaviruses are among the many which cause the common cold. In other words, it is possible – but there is a much more likely explanation.

3] In my opinion, the most likely explanation is as follows: there are far more milder infections in Wuhan than have been acknowledged. Imagine that only 1 in 10 or 20 patients have symptoms bad enough to seek medical attention. Now this will result in a 10-20 fold concentration of the worst cases in hospitals. If the infection has a death rate of 0.5%. and only the most ill 10% seek medical attention, the recorded mortality rate at hospitals will immediately jump from 0.5% to 5%. It is therefore likely that, over the next few weeks, we will find out that majority of infections caused by 2019-nCov are mild or asymptomatic and only a small percentage get ill enough to seek medical attention. Not sure if this soothes existing worries, creates new ones or both.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. nyolci
    February 9, 2020 at 1:25 am

    Very likely your second point is true. Anyway, interesting read, straight from one of the Wuhan doctors.
    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu
    The second to last paragraph makes me confused. Quote below. The thing is that I thought health care is completely free in China (just as it was free in the Eastern Bloc) but this says otherwise. Does anyone know about health care costs in China?
    “The most regretful thing to me was a pregnant woman from Huanggang. She was in very serious condition. Nearly 200,000 yuan (S$39,505) was spent after more than a week in the ICU. She was from the countryside, and the money for hospitalisation was borrowed from her relatives and friends. Her condition was improving after the use of Ecmo, and she was likely to survive. But her husband decided to give up. He cried for his decision. I wept too because I felt there was hope for her to be saved. The woman died after we gave up. And exactly the next day, the government announced a new policy that offers free treatment for all coronavirus-infected patients. I feel so sorry for that pregnant woman.”

    You do realize that this newspaper is run by people who do not like Beijing.. right?

    • nyolci
      February 9, 2020 at 1:31 am

      Sorry, I meant your 3rd point, oh, fcuk… So, I think your 3rd point is true…

    • nyolci
      February 10, 2020 at 2:38 am

      “You do realize that this newspaper is run by people who do not like Beijing.. right?”
      I didn’t know that.

  2. P Ray
    February 9, 2020 at 7:24 am

    3] In my opinion, the most likely explanation is as follows: there are far more milder infections in Wuhan than have been acknowledged. Imagine that only 1 in 10 or 20 patients have symptoms bad enough to seek medical attention. Now this will result in a 10-20 fold concentration of the worst cases in hospitals. If the infection has a death rate of 0.5%. and only the most ill 10% seek medical attention, the recorded mortality rate at hospitals will immediately jump from 0.5% to 5%. It is therefore likely that, over the next few weeks, we will find out that majority of infections caused by 2019-nCov are mild or asymptomatic and only a small percentage get ill enough to seek medical attention. Not sure if this soothes existing worries, creates new ones or both.

    There was a Chinese woman bragging on social media about how she took a load of paracetamol before boarding the plane in order to eat at her favourite French restaurant.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-woman-avoided-airport-tests-travel-france-2020-1/?r=US&IR=T
    ya, she tested negative for the coronavirus … but that also points to a testing flaw – temperatures can be gamed with anti-pyretics … good ole “security theatre”.

    • P Ray
      February 9, 2020 at 7:30 am

      And there’s also this,
      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7980883/Video-shows-officials-protective-suits-dragging-suspected-coronavirus-carriers-homes.html
      Coronavirus mass arrests: Eighty-six people die of virus in a DAY in China as Beijing starts rounding up sufferers and videos show hazmat suit-clad goons dragging people from their homes while death toll hits 724

      Good ole Guoanbu (Guojia Anquan Bu, Ministry of State Security) in action … a very good reason why people in China hide their infections.

      But the one thing that makes me laugh about this novel-Coronavirus situation … we’ll never know the true story, and I figure nobody will be held responsible.

      It’s a clown world we live in, truly.

      • nyolci
        February 9, 2020 at 1:15 pm

        What the hell is your point? (Or the point of the articles?) Quarantine rules are strict and a few assholes out of a few million always try to cheat them. So what the fuck is the problem of the West with Chinese enforcement of quarantine? The “Chinese cover up the disease” has become too transparently bullshit, so they now start the “Chinese government’s hazmat covered goons round up patients”. We had the “cover up” bullshit, now we have the “round up” bullshit.
        Have you ever noticed that whatever (really whatever) the Chinese (Iranians, Russians, Venezuelans, Cubans, whoever) do is shown in the most negative light possible? Really the most stupid and painfully ridiculous accusations are treated as common wisdom in the West.

      • P Ray
        February 9, 2020 at 5:31 pm

        I invite you to inform everyone how easily governments and large companies don’t get away with conspiracies and are held to account – regardless of whether they’re in the East or the West.

        Like how people in the US government were caught and put in jail for the “Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment” …

        or how people who worked for the CIA were arrested for bringing cocaine into the US …

        or how health officials in the UK were jailed for after blood transfusions gave them HIV …

        I don’t share your view that there are absolutely no cover ups in the West, all governments have the ability to lie about their culpability in crimes AND ensure nobody gets punished.

      • P Ray
        February 9, 2020 at 5:32 pm

        or how health officials in the UK were jailed for after blood transfusions gave them HIV …

        should read

        or how health officials in the UK were jailed for negligence after blood transfusions gave patients HIV …

      • nyolci
        February 10, 2020 at 2:46 am

        “I invite you to inform everyone how easily governments and large companies don’t get away with conspiracies”
        1. Why do you think I’m unaware of this? Am I look naive to you?
        2. What the hell does this have to do with the current situation, especially regarding the obvious and transparent bullshit slinging of the Western press? If you really want to see conspiracies, this clearly orchestrated campaign to discredit the Chinese IS AN obvious conspiracy.
        SO I invite you to inform everyone how easily governments and large companies don’t get away with orchestrated bullshit mongering media campaigns.

      • P Ray
        February 10, 2020 at 5:02 am

        Yay … looks like violence is the only order of the day
        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7986189/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-warns-coronavirus-imminent-threat-British-public.html
        Police ‘wearing hazmat suits’ will be able to HANDCUFF suspected coronavirus patients and force them back into quarantine: Tough new laws after a patient tried to ‘BREAK OUT’ from Arrowe Park and total UK infected DOUBLES to eight
        Health Secretary Matt Hancock warns coronavirus is a ‘serious and imminent’ threat to
        The patient staying at Arrowe Park hospital (top right, and centre – two quarantined Brits holed up inside the hospital wearing face masks) on The Wirral told medics he was going to leave before completing 14 days of quarantine after his return from the Chinese city, MailOnline understands. Government sources said those who returned to the UK on the evacuation flights on January 31 were given a ‘very clear choice’ and had to sign contracts saying they would remain in isolation for a fortnight. It came as the Department of Health today declared the outbreak a ‘serious and imminent’ threat to the British public as it announced new powers to fight the spread. Anyone thought to be infected with the virus will now be kept in quarantine for their own safety and will be forced into isolation if they pose a threat to public health. A source told MailOnline: ‘We found we didn’t have the necessary enforcement powers to make sure they didn’t leave.’ The source said the phrase serious and imminent threat’ in the regulation was needed to trigger the powers, and at the moment the risk to the public is still regarded as ‘moderate’. Health Secretary Matt Hancock (bottom right) said that the new measures ‘are considered as an effective means of delaying or preventing further transmission of the virus.’ More than 900 people have died and 40,000 have become infected since the outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, which has been placed in lockdown to curb the spread. More than 100 Britons were placed in quarantine at a three-star hotel in Milton Keynes yesterday (left) after arriving at RAF Brize Norton following another airlift from Wuhan.

        The world is finally getting flat, nobody can claim the moral high ground.

      • Yusef
        February 10, 2020 at 8:27 am

        It is not simply the world getting flat and no one residing on the moral high ground. It is that some of the hype surrounding these viral epidemics is paying off for the corporation-state which has conducted the panic-inducing propaganda.

        That’s been true for a long time.

        It now appears enough people are beginning to be terrified of such epidemics as to accept civil-rights violations and further police mistreatment, harassment, abuse, and false imprisonment.

        This is exactly what I expected, and I further anticipate this will get much, much worse. We’ll see it here in the US on a much larger, more brutal scale, very very soon.

        BTW, isn’t it funny the way the demonization of Chinese and Chinese society comes at a time when there are more immigrants from China to the US than anywhere else? Now this is a feature of the flat world I find interesting: whatever tyranny the Chinese suffered in China will be suffered, and maybe more so, here in the USA.

        The Chinese can come to the USA. This is accepted and allowed by the USA, but not really. They won’t become regular members of communities, and finding solidarity with America’s masses will be impeded.

      • P Ray
        February 10, 2020 at 12:17 pm

        Actually it’s sexism disguised as racism.

        The Chinese people that will be excluded, are the MEN.

        The Chinese people that will be included, are the WOMEN.

        Because the men are competition, but the women won’t mind being part of an Alpha-male’s harem (while later complaining about how nasty those men were, when she had the ability to choose properly … and then complains about the lack of men that can give her ugly self the pussy tingles and will hang around)

      • Yusef
        February 10, 2020 at 1:27 pm

        You may be right.

        Out of curiosity, are you basing this on your own observations? Do other sources confirm this? If so, can you cite some?

        I wonder why Chinese women would be exempt from the effect of the panic. After all, women can be carriers of disease, and that could be more important if your intent is to sleep with them. One of your recent comments seemed to suggest exactly this.

      • P Ray
        February 10, 2020 at 4:27 pm

        “Yellow fever” from white men, and “White thirst” from Asian women is a potent combo,

        which is why the women are more likely to be accepted than the men.
        It’s not rocket science, but admitting huge swathes of the population are racist – only by gender, mind, is a problem many people don’t want to face.

        CONservatives and LIEberals approach it differently.

      • P Ray
        February 10, 2020 at 10:08 pm

        The CONservative lie to get ethnic men involved is:
        “Just be a model minority, be useful to get ethnic men to grovel and accept scraps, then you have fully integrated here (but you don’t dare to complain about racism against ethnic men or dating problems)”

        The LIEberal lie to get ethnic men involved is:
        “It’s horrible how ethnic men are discriminated against in terms of romance. Help us with great social problems and then we’ll get to your problem in the end.”

        Notice the common lie, it’s like the Abrahamic religions’ payoff:
        “You’ll get your pie in the sky when you die”.

        My reply? “No way man, I want my pie on the ground while I’m still around”.

        And that’s why I am a problematic ethnic man, because I refuse to believe or buy into bullshit.

        Also read this:https://dissention.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/modern-contraception-destroyed-internal-slavery/
        Every major socio-economic arrangement, ideology and theory of society is based on the implicit assumption of endless disposable youthful labor which will create value without asking and ‘disappear’ before they can demand their share of the pie they helped to bake.

        In this case, they want ethnic men to build the West, but they can’t fuck the local women.

  1. February 17, 2020 at 8:38 pm
  2. March 1, 2020 at 3:09 pm
  3. March 14, 2020 at 1:14 pm

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