Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 1

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 1

Regular readers of my blog might remember that I wrote a few posts in 2015 and 2016 about my thoughts on the 2016 presidential election- party primaries as well as actual electoral campaign. Not to toot my horn too much (again), but I correctly predicted that Trump would win republican party nomination within a few weeks of entering the race and how he would defeat Hilary in the general election as early as February 2016. More importantly, I never changed my opinion about both outcomes based on the latest bullshit narratives and lies pumped out by decrepit and dying corporate media outlets such as NYT, WP, CNN, MSNBC etc. As it turned out, my assessment was more correct than every single one of those incestuous presstitutes.. also known as “credentialed journalists”.. who were (and still are) each paid millions of dollars per year by those outlets. I can sense that MikeCA will get triggered by this paragraph as I am writing it.. lol.

I initially considered not writing about this quadrennial election cycle, because I know it is going to be a much bigger shitshow than the previous one. But after some more thought, and one small trial balloon, have decided to write about it. I will, however, not focus on every shitshow and fake controversy along the way because there will be tons of them. Furthermore, I write as a hobby and despite of what MikeCA might want to believe, I have not made a single cent out of writing this blog or any other. With that out of the way, let me recommend a new and interesting article by Matt Taibbi which summarizes a possibility which I also increasingly see as being very likely. The very short version of that article is as follows: Bernie will win the party nomination outright or get a plurality of delegates in 2020 for the same reasons Trump did in 2016. This is likely since Bernie, like Trump, has a very devoted and significant core of voter support while those opposing him are competing against each other to win the votes of those who are fine with the status quo.

Readers might have noticed how dying corporate media outlets have been busy pumping up each establishment candidate in succession only to see them deflate in a spectacular fashion and then move on to the next one. First they were trying to sell the inevitability of Biden, then it was the summer of Liz Warren, the fall of McKinsey Buttboy and now the rise of that woman who abuses her staff. As things stand today, Biden’s primary campaign, like the candidate, is rapidly falling apart after getting walloped in Iowa and New Hampshire. Lying Harvard lady.. I mean, Elizabeth Warren.. is doing no better, especially given the time and money she invested in both states. McKinsey Buttboy is trying to pull a Juan Guaido even though he has close to zero support among non-white and non-affluent white voters. Did I mention that Pyscho boss-lady has no realistic path beyond New Hampshire. And we haven’t even talked about the effect of the two billionaires aka Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg’s campaigns in later states.

Let us first talk about the recent Iowa primary.. well, the parts other than the purposely botched caucus and McKinsey Buttboy declaring victory before even a single partial result was declared. You might have heard that the aggregate turnout at that state caucus this year was lower than 2020. Well, the total turnout this year was higher than 2016 but lower than 2008. The turnout of youth voters (as a percentage of total) was however slightly higher than 2008 and much higher than 2016. While this is not especially good, it is certainly not bad- especially for a party which has blown so much political capital because of their obsession with the bullshit RussiaGate and UkraineGate investigations and predictably unsuccessful attempt at removing Trump through impeachment. I mean.. you cannot seriously expect record-breaking turnout at the primary of a party whose establishment is pushing nonsense that many of their potential voters don’t give a flying fuck about. And they kept changing the caucus site locations till the day before primary.

Moving on to the New Hampshire democrat primary, the turnout this year was significantly higher than 2016 and will probably exceed 2008. Also, unlike the shitshow of Iowa’s primary the one in New Hampshire went well and results were available later that night. I probably do not have to tell you that Bernie got the most votes, just like he did in Iowa. Sure, the victory margin was less than 2016 because a field with over eight candidates (at least five major ones) has different dynamics than an election with just two. In my opinion, Elizabeth Warren was the biggest loser coming out of that primary since her two consecutive poor performances and tepid support in subsequent states ensures that her campaign (barring some Deus Ex Machina twist) is, for all practical purposes, dead. Even though Amy Klobuchar, aka Psycho boss-woman, did better than expected- her campaign is also dead since she has really poor numbers in upcoming states.

Moving on to McKinsey Buttboy, who was the corporate media darling before Pyscho boss-lady, his campaign will probably hand around till South Carolina or more likely super Tuesday- when it becomes glaringly obvious to his backers that he has no chance. While Biden has been utterly humiliated due to his poor showing in the first two primaries, I would not consider his campaign dead until he is defeated or flounders badly in Nevada and South Carolina. While it is true that his campaign does not have much money and big donors are increasingly skeptical of his chances, older Bill Cosby-worshiping blacks still haven’t deserted him en masse yet. We also have to factor in that bland neoliberal billionaires such as Tom Steyer are pretty competitive in the stupid.. I mean southern.. states. Did I mention that Bloomberg has also setup some committee which large donors can join for free if they pledge to not support any other candidates?

As some have already said, it increasingly appears that the democratic primary will be between Bernie and Bloomberg. Sure.. something totally unexpected can change this building trend but the simple fact is that Bernie has (by far) the largest grassroots support and capability to raise funds from them while Bloomberg is among the ten richest men in USA. One more thing.. the democratic party will lose 2020 presidential election if it is stupid enough to choose Bloomberg as their candidate for reasons I will explain in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. February 13, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    “One more thing.. the democratic party will lose 2020 presidential election if it is stupid enough to choose Bloomberg as their candidate for reasons I will explain in the next part.”

    This is, in my estimation, exactly what they have already planned. They allow, promote media and social courtship of socialism but they never actually allow legislated socialism (beneficial or not) if they think it will destroy their gravy train. The democrats use socialism (just like they use their feigned intentions to “help blacks”) to con and bullshit understandably naïve and unsuspecting constituents to vote for them (understandable naivety because, how can any human really be as psychopathic as many of these politicians blatantly are?). Liberals are currently focusing their Potemkin socialism on millennials mostly by projecting the idea that millennials are for it whether in reality millennials are for it or not.They allow Sanders in their mix because it helps project the democrat parties fake acceptance of semi socialism. How long has single payer reasonably priced health care been alluded to with absolutely no effective move in that direction while simultaneously using health care to hyperinflate the current mass monetary extortion that is really happening? Both parties are doing absolutely nothing to stop the escalating racketeering in health care and the principals of both are enriching themselves with it. As long as they are both getting rich off the current system, they will both do everything to maintain it which includes pretending to fight each other. Bernie poses a real threat far more than Trumps “political incorrectness”.

    As you can tell, I have not discounted the suspicion that Trump may be just another member of the established post modern ruling aristocracy. Being in that group does not require all group members to like each other. In fact, hatred between members is good because it helps keep the general population very confused and mislead.

    I predict Bernie will receive a similar fate as he did in 2016 and we likely will not know the details (legal or not) until his fate is secured. And the security of his fate will remain, legal or not.

    There is a pattern well established over the past several years, big criminals go free while more petty ones doing the dirty work get indicted, prosecuted and sentenced all of which is fed into the bullshit media confusion distraction machine to keep the populace satiated with sufficient indignation for deflection.

    Considering actual votes (which are cast by citizens but based upon almost nothing more than propaganda designed to influence with false paradigms and fear mongering) there is no way Micro Mikey Bloomberg can win against Trump. Trump has gained trust among far too many black voters via his slick sell combined with his (disingenuous or not and self-serving or not) history of associations with black leaders. Micro Mikey Bloomberg politically lynched himself years ago with slam the kids up against the wall stop and frisk and comments about banks should never have provided loans to poor people. Micro Mikey will “lose” several million dollars, but of whose money really and what is that compared to $56 Billion?

    • Jay Fink
      February 13, 2020 at 4:21 pm

      I hope you guys are right about Bloomberg. He is the one I fear fhe most of everyone running.

  2. Yusef
    February 13, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    “While Biden has been utterly humiliated due to his poor showing in the first two primaries, I would not consider his campaign dead until he is defeated or flounders badly in Nevada and South Carolina.”

    This is exactly right. Time and time again the establishment’s candidate has been badly embarrassed in Iowa and New Hampshire, only to “surge” back in the bigger states and especially on Super Tuesday. This is not because Iowa and New Hampshire voters are more liberal and anti-establishment than others, but because the deck is stacked in favor of the establishment candidates in the other states and especially on Super Tuesday.

    (The Iowa caucus results were not considered significant prior to Jimmy Carter’s win there in 1976, establishing the perception he was the front-runner, a perception which has been coveted ever since. As far as I can remember, though, no party outsider has triumphed in Iowa and New Hampshire and then “used that momentum” to win the nomination.

    My analysis of all this is similar to NBTM’s analysis of other things in that the wins by outsiders in these two caucuses make it seem like the parties are still open to outsiders. This is both parties. Then, when the establishment candidate sweeps through on the later primaries, that’s the voters coming to their senses. However, if you look at the way the later primaries are structured, and I can’t get into that right now, you’ll see how the establishment leverages their organization to prevail. ( Jeb Bush was the biggest flop of that system, but that too I can’t get into right now. Usually it works and it may well work for Biden in 2020.)

  3. February 14, 2020 at 12:16 pm

    It will be funny if Bloomberg steals, errr buys, errr “earns” ™ the Democrap nomination and all the disheartened Bernie Bores vote for Trump. Mike CaCa will then say that all of us hippy, mizoginist Wussian agents were too stupid to support the Democraptic party and now he is moving to Canada so as to not be so oppressedessdest by another Trump term.

  4. MikeCA
    February 14, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    “One more thing.. the democratic party will lose 2020 presidential election if it is stupid enough to choose Bloomberg as their candidate for reasons I will explain in the next part.”

    First off, I do not like Bloomberg. He is essentially a Republican lite who just switched to the Democratic primary.

    The interesting thing is Trump seems to take Bloomberg seriously and thinks he would be a tough candidate to beat in the general election. On the other hand, Trump seems to think Sanders would be easy to defeat in the general election and is the candidate Trump wants to run against. (Actually, Trump probably wants to run against Hilary again, but that is not happening.)

    I think the whole Bloomberg campaign is over blown. Yeah, he can blow a billion dollars on the primaries, a couple of billions on the general election and hardly dent his bank account but money doesn’t buy elections. We have not seem Bloomberg in any of the debates yet, and he is not even on the ballot in any of the primaries till super Tuesday. I don’t think most people outside New York know much about Bloomberg.

    • Jay Fink
      February 14, 2020 at 9:13 pm

      “First off, I do not like Bloomberg”.

      I have been reading your comments for years on various blogs and this is the first time that I fully agree with you.

    • Yusef
      February 15, 2020 at 1:17 pm

      “Yeah, he can blow a billion dollars on the primaries, a couple of billions on the general election and hardly dent his bank account but money doesn’t buy elections.

      We have it on authority of the king: MONEY DOESN”T BUY ELECTIONS!

      Oh yes it does.

      We’ve had the best democracy money can buy for decades.

      We’ve had the best justice money can buy for decades.

      We’ve had the best trust, respect, loyalty and honor money can buy for decades.

      It’s all about money. That’s all it is. It is the government of the money, for the money, and by the money.

      Sure, it is possible to be really, really stupid and fritter away the advantages money buys, and the votes money buys, to lose an election, (usually by remarkably narrow margins.) Barring that, though, the candidate who has been best at fundraising is the candidate who wins.

      A rich criminal with no character and that aftertaste of the psychopathic lunatic, trounces the poor guy with a heart of gold, a good reputation, and solid abilities. This is because the rich criminal can buy the media coverage and public relations to disguise the true character of things, while at the same time running a media smear campaign against the good guy. It works every, damned time, too. The Who “prayed we don’t get fooled again,” but we do, each and every time.

      We could have had substantive campaign finance reform at any time, but it never was seriously proposed by your darling demoRATS…. Did you notice? I have always felt the people of the US could be made to understand the advantages to them of purely public funding of political campaigns, thus cutting out big money and the buying of influence. Your darling demoRATS hardly tried.

      Bloomberg has about sixty billion; match that to Trump’s two or three (if that.) He can wipe Trump out and not even feel it. If Trump’s backers begin to feel the threat,and perceive Bloomberg is viable, they’ll defect from Trump en masse. No one gives a shit about Trump, really, and it is obvious Bloomberg will cut the same deals as Trump, or better. The process is absolutely not about integrity or what’s the best course for Americans….Did you notice?

      Plus, Americans have tended to equate wealth and business acumen with intelligence and ability– as suitable qualifications for public service. By this way of thinking, Bloomberg is going to appear superior to many.

  1. February 28, 2020 at 9:11 am

Leave a Reply to Jay Fink Cancel reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: