Archive

Archive for February 17, 2020

More Observations about the Ongoing Coronavirus Outbreak in China

February 17, 2020 4 comments

A few days ago, I wrote a post about the ongoing coronavirus epidemic in China. In that post, I wrote that the current mortality figures (especially outside Wuhan) strongly suggest that it is far less deadly than many white racist idiots are claiming. I also hinted at the possibility that a large percentage of people exposed to the virus probably don’t develop clinical illness or are only mildly symptomatic. As it turn out, subsequent developments have validated my predictions. With a few hundred confirmed cases (based on lab tests) outside China, there have been only two additional deaths, the latest one being a 80-year-old Chinese man who was on a visit to France. And then I came across a few tweets with some new and interesting information about the broader mortality and morbidity patterns of this outbreak.

Have a look at the first table containing data, which is now already a couple of weeks old, from the main hospitals in Wuhan. The first thing you will notice almost immediately is that the death rate for males (4.45 %) is significantly higher than for females (1.25 %). But there is something even more interesting in this table. Have a look at the death rate for patients under 60 years (1.43 %) versus those above 60 years (5.3 %). It turn out that being male and old significantly increases the risk of death from 2019-nCov. But why? So far, the best explanation for differences in mortality rates between males and females is as follows: Smoking is much more common among men in China than women and seems to increase the expression of a protein which this virus uses to enter cells in respiratory tract. In other words, smoking makes you far more likely to develop more severe forms of this disease.

Now let look at another table containing even more recent and comprehensive statistics about mortality and morbidity due to 2019-nCov. You will immediately notice that the death rate is below 0.5% for those under 50 years and barely over 1% for those between 50 and 60, but goes up pretty steeply for patients above 60, reaching almost 15 % for those above 80. Interestingly children under 10 seem to be somehow protected from developing severe forms of this illness. Also note that the difference between mortality rates in males and females is now smaller, though the later still fare better than the former- in spite of patient numbers in both categories being roughly similar. And yes, the occupation category with highest death rate are retirees- validating the data from previous table. The low case numbers for patients between 0-20 years is also odd.

To summarize, I am even more convinced that 2019-nCov causes only a mildly symptomatic to asymptomatic infection in most people infected by it. This is why the number of those infected was so large before the virus was initially identified. Since older and very ill patients were highly represented among those who ended up in hospitals at beginning of this outbreak, the mortality rate initially seemed much higher than it turned out. To be clear, 2019-nCov is definitely a bigger problem than your average influenza strain- but, as things stand today, it is not the apocalyptic epidemic which many white idiots were hoping for. Based on what we know about microbial evolution, this virus will most likely evolve into even less lethal version- eventually approaching the level of an average Influenza A strain.

What do you think? Comments?

NSFW Links: Feb 17, 2020

February 17, 2020 Leave a comment

These links are NSFW. Will post something more intellectual tomorrow.

Amateur POV BJs: Jan 28, 2020 – Amateur cuties sucking on the glans.

Amateur POV BJs: Feb 13, 2020 – Amateur cuties in glasses giving BJs.

More Amateur POV BJs: Feb 13, 2020 – More amateur cuties in glasses giving BJs.

Amateur Deepthroat BJs: Feb 16, 2020 – Amateur cuties giving deepthroat BJs.

Enjoy! Comments?

Categories: Uncategorized