Archive for March 3, 2020

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 3

March 3, 2020 14 comments

In the previous post of this series, I promised to write about how the results of South Carolina’s democrat primary would be used by the party establishment to try and push the candidacy of an old guy with vascular dementia aka Joe Biden. Yes, you heard that right- it is my opinion that Joe Biden displays symptoms consistent with cerebrovascular dementia. In case you didn’t know, this is a sub-type of senile dementia in which neuronal dysfunction and death is largely caused by micro- and macro- vascular dysfunction in the brain, rather than pathological changes associated with Alzheimer’s Disease. It should be noted that most patients with senile dementia have some combination of cerebrovascular dysfunction and pathological changes seen in Alzheimer’s disease. So what makes me think that Joe Biden’s obvious dementia is of the vascular type?

Well.. due to his medical history. Patients with the more classical version of Alzheimer’s tend to be female and in their late 70s or older. Vascular dementia type pathology, on the other hand, is more common in men- especially those with a history of previous vascular dysfunction, a history of previous traumatic brain injury or prior neurosurgery. As some of you might know, Biden had a couple of surgeries in the late 1980s to repair two particularly nasty aneurysms in his brain. While those surgeries saved his life, it should be noted that somebody with multiple aneurysms (even after repair) is far more likely to develop other cerebrovascular issues later on in their life than somebody who never had them. To quickly summarize, Biden rapid and obvious cognitive decline since 2012-2015 is most likely the result of (predominantly) vascular dementia.

But why does this matter and what does it have to do with future of democratic primary? As it turns out a lot. Let me explain. See.. Biden has gone down in the polls since his entry into the race for two main reasons. Firstly, the Bernie’s campaign cleverly dug up his long record of support for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. But even more importantly, because Biden’s staff kept his media or public appearances to a bare minimum because they rightly understood that he was displaying too many symptoms of dementia for potential voters to look the other way. This is also why rich donors were willing to put far more money behind other turncoat candidates such as McKinsey Buttboy and Lying Liz. This is why DNC’s original plan to deny Bernie the nomination- which was based on flooding the field with many candidates who were expected to take votes away from Bernie- but not Biden backfired, spectacularly.

To be fair, Bloomberg’s unanticipated entry into the race and his spending over 500 million on advertising to project himself as the centrist alternative was the killer blow for Biden- which is ironic since Bloomberg was trying to stop Bernie, not Biden. I could write multiple posts on why McKinsey Buttboy and Amy Binderthrower got steamrolled in the primaries, but they are no longer relevant. The very short version is that the number of partisan democrats who want 90s-style centrists is declining as more babyboomers keep dying. You might have seen the grifting piece of shit aka Barack Obama was able to get Buttboy and Binderthrower to drop out yesterday and endorse Biden. As I have written in the past Obama is the political equivalent of Bill Cosby and his presidency was a disaster for establishment democrats, which makes their continued worship of him even more pathetic. I am sure MikeCA will disagree with this assessment.

Since we cannot change the past, so let us talk about the future- specifically my predictions about how the democratic primary will evolve. FYI- I am not concerned about the results of Super Tuesday voting since Obama’s last minute scam does not change the overall direction of this contest. Having said that it changes something further down the line. Let me explain..

1] Any person who is not an establishment democrat or partisan worshiper (MikeCA?) will tell you that the party has experienced a pretty steep decline in many parts of the country within the past decade. To be fair it has been on a generally downward path for the past twenty years, but it is undeniable that this slow-motion collapse sped up after Obama took office in early-2009. But why? Well.. the short answer is that Obama got elected by pretending to a populist reformer, but ended up continuing and intensifying neoliberal policies once in office. There is a reason why it took the incredible ineptitude of Trump for democrats, in 2018, to even partially reverse their decade-long streak of losses. However, thus far, no political figure of any fame has openly said that Obama was a shitty president and the proximal cause of Trump’s rise.

Even Bernie Sanders, whose private critique of Obama is well known, has so far not criticized the later openly. However the dumb meddling that Obama pulled off yesterday is almost certain to make Bernie’s campaign reconsider their previous reticence to criticize him. This is especially likely since they now understand that older black voters in the south are not going to vote for a Jew under any condition. Also, after Super Tuesday there are no big states full of older black voters coming up for some time- if at all. So expect the Bernie campaign, especially surrogates to start going after the many problematic legacies of Obama’s presidency. While Bernie would have had to do this at a later stage anyway, Obama’s meddling in the primary removes the one reason they had not done so till now.

2] While Lying Liz has pretended to be a progressive, nobody with half-a-brain and even a brief overview of her career believed that lie. However, Bernie foolishly refrained from criticizing her once the election campaign began. Given her actions since then, especially in the past month- I am guessing that many in his campaign were eager to tear her a new one. Now that she has publicly admitted her role as a DNC-appointed spoiler for progressive voters- expect the Bernie campaign to go after her. And they will have to, because there is no realistic option to that course of action. Of course, Bernie could be stupid (or cynical) enough to not challenge her bullshit- but realistically we are all going to gothere, whether he likes it or not.

3] Bernie has also refrained from any attacks on Joe Biden’s cognitive ability or talking about how the Biden family enriched themselves because of the various political offices he held. While this was kinda acceptable when Biden was slowly sinking in the polls and the centrist vote was split, they just cannot afford to do this now. While it is far more likely that most of the attacking on these issues will be done by Bernie surrogates, sooner or later things will reach a point when Biden’s obvious dementia will be an issue for open public discussion. Once again, even if Bernie does not want to there- he has no recourse. More importantly, his second-order surrogates are already going after Biden’s cognitive status. And you can bet that Trump is going to push those two narratives on a massive scale, even if Bernie does not. One way or the other, both issues will enter the domain of political campaigning in a big way. The general direction, as they say, is set.

It is of course possible that Bernie does not do any of this and ends up losing like he did in 2016. However doing so in 2020 carries very different implications from doing it four years ago. In the first campaign, he was the relatively unknown newcomer who was talking about ideas that were popular but almost never mentioned by other politicians. 2020 is likely the last time he will run for the nomination and presidency. To put it another way, if he is not seen as putting everything in this campaign, he will lose the following he has built and have no legacy- at least of the type he seems to crave. He has no option but to go on the offensive now..

I am curious to see how Bloomberg performs in the Super Tuesday states today. Will he keep sucking votes from Biden? Will he stay in the race after tomorrow. Who knows? Will write about my analysis of today’s primaries in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?