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Quick Method for Determining the Demographic Destiny of Any Group

Here is one of those posts which I started writing years ago but did not finish till today, because it was.. well.. so short. Yes, one of the two reasons I kept delaying its publication was my inability to find something extra or deeply significant about the basic concept. The other being that this post will almost certainly attract some traditional and socially CONservative types- a group that I don’t care about.. to put it mildly.

So without further ado, here is how you determine whether any group (racial, ethnic, economic, religious etc) will grow or shrink in the near future. Ready.. if the median age of first birth in women of said group is under 26, then it has a bright demographic future. If the median age of first birth in women is over 28, that group is headed for a rapidly shrinking demographic future.

But wait.. there is more. The father’s age is equally important. Groups where the father’s age at time of birth of his first child is under 30 are expanding. Conversely, groups where the father’s age at time of first child’s birth is over 30 are aging and contracting. The above two observations hold regardless of factors such as historical era, race, ethnicity, religion, culture etc.

Confused? Let me explain the concept with a few examples and also tell you how I first stumbled on this observation. Looking back at my ancestors, I realized something peculiar about changes in number of children per woman. While both sides of my family tree were always well off, the number of kids per women (fertility rate) dropped sharply after the 1940s. This occurred irrespective of level of education for women or whether they had jobs outside the house.

The point I am trying to make is that the drop in fertility had nothing to do with ability to afford having more kids. Sure.. medical developments after 1940 ensured that almost all kids born to parents who can afford them will live to adulthood and beyond. But then again, the majority of kids born to my ancestors in previous eras made it to adulthood.. so survival of genetic legacy was unlikely to be a consideration.

So what was going on? Well.. while overhearing conversations among the older members of my family I realized that around that time, the average age of marriage of women went up rather steeply- from late teens to early 20s. We can certainly debate the social, economic and cultural shifts which caused that change- but it does not matter, because the outcome does not change. Years later, I noticed a very similar pattern when looking at chronological demographic data for countries such as UK and France.

By then, I had also noticed something else. The median number of children per woman drops below 2 once the age of having first child for women exceeded 28. Also, this observation holds regardless of country or social class. While this shift first occurred in the more “educated” and moneyed classes of every country, it has since spread much further- especially in westernized countries. The most curious part of this shift is that it has little to do with ability to financially support more children. And it gets even weirder..

While some of you might think that the correlation of male age at birth of first child with fertility rates is simply an artifact of men being a few years older than women in most marriages or relationships, it is a much more complicated than that. See.. men who haven’t had kids by 30 are much less likely to seek relationships where they want to have them. Moreover, even if they have kids after 30, it is seldom more than two- and usually one or one.

Now I am sure some of you will tell me about counterexamples they know in person. To that I say.. sure.. but I am talking about the correlation of parental age with average and median number of children. I am sure that somebody like a sports star, famous rapper, movie celebrity or somebody that is very interested in having many kids might have more. But they are the minority and face it.. very few people have a half-dozen or more kids.

To summarize, the total number of kids a woman has starts dropping sharply once her age at birth of first child is over 22, approaches replacement (IFR ~ 2) if her age is between 24-26 and goes below replacement (IFR < 2) once her age exceeds 28. As far as men are concerned, those who haven't become first-time fathers by 30 are unlikely to have more than two- usually one or zero. This occurs regardless of their financial ability to support more children.

I am sure that many of you will have a lot to say about my observations and potential reasons behind these socio-economic-cultural shifts.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. P Ray
    May 28, 2020 at 2:20 am

    In a very real sense, I would say there are 3 major reasons why the average age of the woman and man having children late go up
    For the woman:
    1) she has been pumped and dumped by Chad, and won’t settle for less
    2) other girls reinforce the idea that only Chad is worthy of her
    3) after the bad breakup of (1) she has to be in charge or very close to it, so the only way to do so is to be as bitchy and unapproachable as possible … so only the men with many options can handle her by calling her bluff.

    For the man:
    1) growing up he got zero female attention
    2) other men reinforce the idea that only a man with plenty of women deserve respect
    3) after the bad treatment of (1) he has to be in charge or very close to it, so the only way to do so is to be in management positions to get the big bucks, shunt away the competitors and play office politics to attract a woman via money.

    Don’t forget that the only old men allowed to have relationships with younger women are usually very rich, powerful or connected.

    This doesn’t apply to corner cases where
    1) the man has permanent residence overseas
    2) his home country strictly limits the employment opportunities of a foreign wife
    3) his home country has laws against the seduction of married women by single men (whether local or foreign)

    I am one of those corner cases.

    • doldrom
      May 28, 2020 at 9:40 am

      You are painting with broad strokes, but … everything you describe is hardly the cause of this shift. They are all concomitant, corollary, but it seems hardly the cause.
      In fact, going back historically, THE way that (oppressed) minorities eventually overwon their situation, was the “revenge of the cradle.”
      Semites from the Zagros mountains encroached and eventually took over ancient Sumeria. The Romans eventually succumbed to the Goths serving in their army, living in great slums outside of the city gates. The Egyptian Pharaoh let the Hebrew slaves go because they had grown into such a multitude. The Church actively encouraged la Revanche des berceaux in British occupied Quebec. I have heard Palestinian women say to reporters that their wombs are a factory for Intifada.
      All these are archetypical of civilizational/power shifts brought about over generations or longer through demography: the well off begetting few offspring, the oppressed all the more.

      • P Ray
        May 28, 2020 at 10:26 am

        I would say the populations of the world have only started to decline with the rise of mass media and advertising but especially with the rise of online dating.

        Rich and poor people alike in earlier times had more children, but the rich could have illegitimate children without worrying about an inheritance claim to their estates.

        Hypergamy is a very powerful tool that makes women keep their legs shut for everyone except the most powerful men … and become bitchy and demanding towards their life partner who isn’t.

        Also in this interconnected world where reputation is paramount … women hold a lot of power to destroy the progress of men, with the magic words of “creep”, “incel” and “misogynist”. The reverse is a lot tougher, which is why Amy Cooper is causing such a stir. How long will the anger against he who killed George Floyd last? The white cop has an Asian wife … so will pull the “I’m not racist” card, and the Hmong cop is the fella they will use to demonise Asians, despite the fact that he is both a not-physically-involved-collaborator, and impotent (as he didn’t do anything).

        Again the only way most women stay loyal to regular men, is that she needs his income, and he is better than the alternative of Onlyfans.

        That is why Corona-chan is so helpful today, women will need men because being an online prostitute is harder now that it is getting saturated. But men are also realising that a lot of women like them as human doings, not human beings.

        The U.S. marriage rate fell 6% in 2018, with 6.5 new unions formed for every 1,000 people

        It’s women who choose to carry children to term which causes overpopulation.
        Plus I would also say now, because more women know they are the privileged gender, will try to abort males.

        Of course, as dissention has said, this sorry house of cards will collapse the moment a lot of men realise that their society will not allow them any chance of getting a piece of the pie that they helped to bake.

        “The bill comes due.”

      • doldrom
        May 28, 2020 at 2:11 pm

        In terms of biology, they say that once the demographics pyramid inverts, the species is on its way to extinction. Perhaps the direction of the causality is the reverse. I’m not sure if this is a law with a name.
        Children are quintessential humanity. I’ve always felt that people who don’t like children don’t really like human beings. Kids are human beings without culture & socialization: vulnerable, playful, generally happy, curious, adventuresome … and trusting and loving.
        Yeah, they ask a hell of a lot from you, but that simply raises the question of how much you can invest in another person who actually needs you and relies on you.

        Once you have a kid, you’re ego and life project takes second place to something more important. Maybe it’s the difference between being part of humanity or completing the project of constructing your self.

      • P Ray
        May 28, 2020 at 5:59 pm

        The other important thing to remember is that you can only have a real, as opposed to court-mandated or betabucks pregnancychild of your own, outside of adoption – with someone who wants you to have one.
        Someone who wants you to have a kid with them, also wouldn’t oppose a paternity test.
        I’ve always felt that people who are very reluctant to have their kids take a blood test may be hiding something.

        Otherwise it’s a case of, “Alpha groin, beta coin”

      • P Ray
        May 29, 2020 at 11:10 pm

        Lel, looks like “Kellie Chauvin”, Mrs. Minnesota America 2018, and Asian, calls her former husband (ya, she just got divorced from him today) … such a “gentleman.”

        She told the news outlet: “Under all that uniform, he’s just a softie.
        (Ya, he can be a softie after he has put his knee to your head until you are dead)

        “He still opens the door for me, still puts my coat on for me. After my divorce, I had a list of must-haves if I were ever to be in a relationship, and he fit all of them.”

        The usual “women value personality” BS. Plus, a divorcee.

        She’s not honouring her part of the wedding vows, “till death do us part”.

        Tells you everything you need to know about women after her first serious relationship or husband – it’s all a transaction to her.

  2. Wilson
    May 28, 2020 at 6:11 am

    Don’t think many people can afford to have >2 children in their 20s, not surprising that after entering middle-age they are less vigorous.

  3. doldrom
    May 28, 2020 at 9:30 am

    This is the contrary to what AD is saying, and I think you have it very wrong. People have never paid such a low proportion of their income for food, and most could get by with far less (buy 50kg of rice, onions, lentils, garlic, soya sauce, and the cheapest cabbage of the day, stir fry … you can get by on almost nothing). When I was 4, the baby sit thought it rude (spoiled) to ask for a baked egg on my sandwich … but today you can buy 17 eggs for the same proportion of median income. The danger of running out of food is also far less b/c of social safety nets. I can still remember before there was unemployment insurance, people relied on neighbours and church connections to bring them boxes of food to get through … at the beginning of the seventies, not that long ago.
    You may well say there are a lot of other expenses. But where I live, the houses that were occupied by working families (two adults, and all the children you get without contraceptives, often 8-12, sleeping side by side on a straw matrass, no shower or bath) from the 1870’s right through the thirties, are now considered small studio apartments for young people. Sure, most people will think that standards have shifted, but that’s exactly the point: the constraints are cultural, not material.

    • Just A Programmer
      May 28, 2020 at 10:14 am

      What people expect to do to support their children has increased, especially for middle class families.

      At extremes it reaches absurdity, like a T-Ball coach. Outside the USA, T-Ball is a form of baseball for children up to about 7 for so.

  4. Just A Programmer
    May 28, 2020 at 10:06 am

    Know exactly one middle class family with four kids. Not people you would have thought of when they married as having a large family.

    It seems like a lot of people have one child as a kind of mascot, or marriage trophy. Some times the kid turns out OK, sometimes not.

  5. miforest
    May 28, 2020 at 10:47 am

    my kids are adults now . I will say that children are a gift from god. you will never love anyone else like you love your kids. I had that in mind when I picked my wife . She had a lot of great qualities, but I thought she would be a good mother carried a lot of weight for me. we have been together for over 30 years now. once I got out of college and got a job , If a woman I was dating gave me the ” I’m not sure I want kids ” line , that was the end. broke up with some hot ones over that

  6. HarshCritic
    May 28, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    The number one reason people are having children at older age and usually only 1 child is the hedonic treadmill. If women hold the key to reproduction (at least in the west) the dominant cultural trend is to have them later in life after enjoying youth, travelling, studying, having a career. After realising how much work it is to raise one child and how detrimental is in relation to their previous care free, fun having lifestyle they are not willing to have another one.

    • doldrom
      May 28, 2020 at 2:00 pm

      I dunno. It’s in the East too, just look at trends in Japan, Korea, China, Thailand, even middle class India or Africa.
      As for the work involved, once you have one, the incremental cost in time, organisation, and equipment is minimal. You’ve got the buggy, the trike, child-proofed the house, etc. I was once asked by a 9-year girl (no father/mother anymore) if she couldn’t just stay with our family, she thinking, you already have 2 girls my age, I’ve been here 2 weeks with no problems how much difference does it make? Besides legalities and hesitation, thinking it through, her proposal didn’t even seem crazy to me at all, and I’ve always felt guilty for not have better answers. So the incremental is a lot less than you would think.

    • abprosper
      May 29, 2020 at 6:18 pm

      Urban societies have had less children since time immemorial and as the world grows urban the number of desired children declines.

      if you look at high fertility societies, near all of them are poor and rural and as such always will have more children.

      As for the high fertility areas, even Afghanistan is becoming less fertile by a rate of 3% per year or so.

      This is a good thing for many reasons.

  7. MikeCA
    May 29, 2020 at 9:32 am

    I find it interesting that in the early days of this blog the main topic was encouraging young men to hire escorts rather than to trying dating or hookups.

    So was the purpose of that advice to encourage the decline of the west?

    • P Ray
      May 29, 2020 at 11:05 am

      Hiring escorts is the far more efficient process rather than dating or hookups.
      And you get guaranteed sex – which dating or hookups do not.
      Plus you do not require attraction to hire an escort, or be fighting against a racist system to prove yourself an equal.

      Also, if advice proves that men are being treated as second-class citizens, shouldn’t the onus (anus?) be on women to change their behaviour, after all, they do like to say they value personality more than looks?

    • Jack Donovan
      May 29, 2020 at 2:41 pm

      I think this is our favorite Hindu Muffin’s (advocatus diabolo’s) way of saying that when he pays a precious white women for her time, hehe… That he tells her that he had a vasectomy and that for another $20, she can let him rawdog it. Then he hopes she isn’t a good lil feminist and goes and has her 25th abortion. That way, AD has his little hindu muffin that he never has to pay child support on. Well, if I was Str8. I sure would use the same tactics. To bad all us nazi’s, just like liberals have deviant sexual orientations. So, uh, ya wanna party with me, Mikey?

  8. Jack Donovan
    May 29, 2020 at 2:22 pm

    Well, let’s just say “operation werewolf” in the twin cities is gong better than we coulda hoped. Me and Paul waggoner threw on our black masks (there, blackface) and pretended to be minors while lighting the place on fire. We will burn down their hoods and make it look like they did it because we are clever that way. Just like we opened up the wolves of vineland bathhouse to the juice and hindu muffins so we could spread our covid along with our hep and aids.

    See Hayle !!!

    • Jack Donovan
      May 29, 2020 at 2:30 pm

      “pretended to be minors”

      err, the autocorrect must be run by the juice, they cucked me again, I meant to say “mino’s”

      err, uh, maybe is was one of them freudian slips cause I sure do like that us nazi’s have youth organizations. They wouldn’t let me be a boycott leader but I still get some aryan anus.

      See Hayle !!!

      14 88 !!!

      Not Str8 !!!

  9. David H. fucktrelle, Male feminist extraordinaire
    May 29, 2020 at 9:45 pm

    oh hai misogynists…

    this is what feminist empowered pornography looks like…

    Did you go blind yet?

    • White girlz writing blogs about feelings
      May 30, 2020 at 6:56 am

      Cool brah

      • David H. fucktrelle, Male feminist extraordinare
        May 30, 2020 at 9:08 am

        oh hai,

        I hope you are really a white girl with fewings…

        come over to my blog, wehuntedthemammoth where we bash low status men and I do this for social justice…

        social justice being a strap on in my bootie, tehehehe…

  10. Without a white girl, I’m not free damnit!!!
    June 6, 2020 at 3:21 pm

    Aww. Little Hadji can’t get a white girl, still?
    I read this blog a long time ago, when the host’s Subcontinental Incel Syndrome was less advanced, and Roosh V. still extended hope to desis.
    Sad to come back after years, and see the blog has succumbed to the terminal phase of S. I. C.

    • Jack Donovan
      June 6, 2020 at 5:40 pm

      Hadji, eh? That’s what one of the wolfes of vineland who used to wreck my rectum would call the Iraqi’s when he was a soldier. He was an alpha male, he murdered a bunch of little kids and said they was insurgents. He the became a cop, still killing innocents. So, uh, if you are a white guy, you too can join us at the wolves of vineland and wreck some rectum. But if you are a hindu muffin like I thought Advocates Diaboli was, then you’s can pound sand. Got it?

    • P Ray
      June 9, 2020 at 7:28 am

      From reddit r/AsianMasculinity, user AmazongKong:
      “Stop being so obsessed with white women, what’s wrong with girls of your own race?”.
      A major double standard no one talks about.

      I have always been bothered by this double standard because I feel that is has spread to a lot of Asian men.
      While white men are free to love and openly confess their attraction to girls of various race and ethnic backgrounds, men of minority groups are made to feel guilty for admitting that they want white girls.
      Now I get it, some of you think that white girls are not all that special and I can see that.
      A part of me also thinks that it isn’t really your preference but you feel this powerful guilt inside of you for liking white girls.
      You feel that you’re somehow being disloyal to your own race of women, who will turn their backs on you in a heartbeat (eg: esther ku), by somehow wanting to get with a white girl.

      So many times on various discussions across reddit and internet forums I see this double standard take place.
      A white guy will confess that he wants Asian girls or Latinas, everyone will tell him he can do it and talk about how he is so brave for wanting to go interracial.
      Now on the flip side, an Asian guy might confess his love for white girls but everyone will attack him for his preference and use the old “what’s wrong with women of your own race” card.

      The worst part is, minorities do this too out of guilt, it’s like they know they’re not supposed to anger their white masters by loving white girls.

      Even on this sub which I have lurked on, I see Asian guys occasionally attacking each other for wanting to be with white girls.
      I get that you should be proud of who you are but we need to admit some realities:

      1.For a lot of us who aren’t in ethnic enclaves, most of the dateable women we run across will be white.
      A lot of the western world is mostly white.

      2.White women in the western world, whether we want to admit it or not, hold some racial prejudice against Asian guys.

      On the other hand, I also feel that Asian men who fall victim to this double standard are subconsciously bowing to their white masters.
      In their heads, they are thinking “I better not try to go after white girls, don’t want to piss master off”.

      I just find it a bit odd that even on a site like reddit and to a lesser extent a sub like this, the powerful double standard is still present.
      Not only is white supremacy attempting to stop a lot of desirable white women from going interracial (they’re doing a damn good job at it too), it has got to the point where it is even stopping guys from sharing advice on how to date them.
      It is almost like as much as we try to show how superior and independent we are, a lot of guys on here feel that powerful guilt and fear of going after white women.
      At times guys will disguise it with the whole “they ain’t special” belief (and yes, it is true, they are not special) but I feel that the guys don’t actually believe that, they’re just coping.

      With the anti-racist George Floyd movement going on, I believe it is high time to hit white men and women with the “you’re being racist” tag.
      They’ve gotten away with discriminatory behaviour for far too long.

    • P Ray
      June 9, 2020 at 4:50 pm

      Interesting comment about someone who has been in the PUA scene for awhile:
      Strange to see the trajectories of all the early 2000s who founded the modern PUA movement, all of them have conmen type personalities and grifts. Especially after the initial boom, those little things of value PUA added to seduction tactics available to low tier men very soon became common wisdom among men — and by the late 2000s most knew about it.

      RooshV reached middle age and discovered that PUA in foreign countries becomes pathetic at a certain age, and pivoted(?) or converted to being a religious extremist and political commentator. He might start his own Christian cult soon.

      Tyler Durden tried to keep RSD while the PUA marketplace started to become more competitive – he now faces competition of PUA maxxed Chadlites as an over the hill goober.

      Mystery semi-retired off the gigantic amounts of money he made off being face of the PUA movement in the 2000s, tried to come back and just sort of disappeared.

      Neil Strauss became rich from his book, seminars and speaking engagements, became a star author, statusmaxxed, no longer needed PUA to fuck foids, and now runs a higher level multi level marketing scheme branded as a mental health group to con older, more successful men out of money.

      PUA is a scam …

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