Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Quick Thoughts on Why the Summer of 2020 Will be Full of Discontent

Quick Thoughts on Why the Summer of 2020 Will be Full of Discontent

Regular readers might remember that a couple of my posts on the topic of COVID-19 (link 1, link 2) explicitly mention the likelihood of serious and lasting social unrest – especially in USA. Some of you might also remember another post (link 3) on that topic on which I talked about collapse of public trust in the old establishment after WW1 and during the great depression of early 1930s was responsible for the rise of fascists and strongmen and military types all over the world- from Italy, Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland to Japan. Many years ago, I wrote yet another short post (link 4) about how the Nazi Party was a fringe party in Germany (receiving no more than 5% of votes for many years) until the economic crash of 1929 caused in a huge rise in unemployment which was made worse by the austerity policies of Heinrich Brüning.

To make a long story short, there is enough historical data from previous one hundred years that actual unemployment rates over 20% consistently produce interesting and “unexpected” political outcomes. As many of you might have heard, the unemployment rates in this country (massaged as they are) have now exceeded 25%. Let me also remind you that the unemployment benefit system in this country is designed to exclude people from receiving benefits. Therefore the real unemployment rate is probably closer to 35-40%. The last time we saw such high rates in our country was in the early 1930s- almost 90 years ago. To make matters a bit more interesting, the rates of unemployment among the healthy young are much higher than those of in older age groups. In other words almost everybody under 40 or 45 is screwed.

But why does it matter and what is the relevance of any of this to my predictions of widespread social unrest for the past two months? Well.. let me ask you a few simple questions. Firstly, how did all that talk of social-distancing and COVID-19 dissolve into thin air within the past 2-3 days? Isn’t it odd that the country went from pretending to shame people who violated all those stupid guidelines to burning down social unrest at multiple places in at least 25 cities (thus far) all over this country. Also, how come so many young white people have decided to protest the public murder and lynching of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. What is going on? Surely, all these young white people could not have suddenly developed so much empathy for black people within the past couple of months.. could they?

More than a few “hip” journalists are trying to spin a theory that this is all the result of people spending too much time indoors in past two months. Perhaps.. but why aren’t we seeing the same sorts of protests in other western countries yet? What is so exceptional about this country? Well.. have you ever considered the possibility that one of the biggest difference between USA and other developed country is the quality of the social safety net? Also, USA is an empire in an accelerating phase of its decline. Furthermore, you might have noticed that the age range of protesters skews heavily towards the younger end. In case you haven’t figure what I am getting at by now, let me say it clearly. It is not so much about about race and policing as much as it is about a collapse of belief in the ability of existing status quo to continue providing even the previous bare minimum of living standards.

However, this does not mean that race and policing are not an issue for most people protesting. It is just that they matter in ways not readily obvious to conventional thinkers. Let me explain.. white muricans of previous generations (upto middle of Gen-X) benefited from racial inequality and disparate policing of minorities. That is why for example, shitholes such as Reagan, Clinton, Bush41 and 43 got elected and why that whole “tough of crime” bullshit flourished from mid-1970s to 2008. However due to neoliberal globalization etc, almost everybody born in late 1970s and after has, to put it mildly, been fucked over by the system- regardless or race. Sure.. black people have been screwed over the most but, unlike in previous eras, so have whites below a certain age- albeit to a lesser degree. Long story short, whites people below a certain age have little to no loyalty for system. Then there is the issue of racial demography.

It is no secret that a rapidly increasing percentage of the younger age groups are non-white and therefore have even less of an attachment to the old status quo. It also does not help that those under 40 have been disproportionately affected by negative socio-economic changes from loss of job security, ever increasing costs for housing, higher education and healthcare, multiple asset bubbles whose bursting transferred wealth in this country upwards, the global financial crisis of 2008, stagnant or declining wages for all their working lives. In other words, they have been served a massive shit-sandwich in the name of american exceptionalism and all that associated bullshit for the past twenty years. To make matters worse, if that is possible, the militarization of police throughout this country which began in earnest during 1990s has made them even less accountable and far more willing to harass and abuse white people than they used to in the past.

To make another long story short, majority of those under 40 are far more likely to take the side of a black guy murdered by police than their parents generation. It does not help that the police no longer have popular legitimacy among the younger age groups as they are now seen as as occupying force elusively protecting the interest of hyper-parasitic plutocrats. While this sor of discontent had been openly brewing since 2008, a series of events in past few months have pushed things into overdrive. The small-scale riots you are seeing right now all over this country are just the beginning of an interesting period on the history of this country- assuming there is a functional one left by the time this phase is over. And yes.. that particular outcome is much more likely than most people are willing to admit.

The thing is.. the very public lynching of George Floyd was the perfect spark which set fire to a lot of dry tinder and fuel that had been accumulating (at an increasingly accelerating rate) for past few years. Most dumb conventional thinkers pay too much attention to the spark but ignore the tinder and fuel- at their own peril. These idiots think that all these riots will be self-limiting or follow patterns from the past- such as those from the late 1960s. Here is my prediction.. they won’t follow previous patterns and here is why. The late 1960s or any other period in american history after 1938 did not have prolonged 20% + unemployment. Nor were the unemployment rates so peculiarly distributed by age. If you think that close to 50% unemployment + severe underemployment rates for those under 40-45 won’t cause more and larger social problems in a country without an effective social safety net, you are delusional.

And no.. the economy is not going to come back to “normal” within a few months. In fact, it is much more likely to get worse before it can get better. Problem is that most of those under a certain age do not have the financial resources to stay afloat till then without a job that pays the same as before. It is no coincidence that the rioting started close to the time (almost two months into COVID-19 shutdown) when most people under 40 would start running out of money and credit to maintain their previous lifestyles and in many cases afford the essentials. If you think whatever happened all over this country on this weekend was bad.. just wait a few more weeks. Also the type of rioting, violence and civil disturbances you have see untill now are just a teaser trailer of what might occur within next 2-3 months.

To make matters worse, if that is still possible, the elites from both political parties in this country are out of touch with reality. These dumbfucks appear to think that all of this unpleasantness will just go away if they double down or pretend that these protests are only about race and policing. We are already seeing idiots on both side of approved political spectrum pretend that these riots were caused by “foreign interference” and “out of state professional agitators” etc. By basing their next actions on such delusional thinking, they are going to choose paths of action which will further inflame the situation. I, for one, do not find this surprising- since almost every single empire in its terminal phase is ruled by elites who have lost touch with reality and hence fail to appreciate the real-life limitations of their rapidly declining power.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. MikeCA
    May 31, 2020 at 12:22 pm

    So here we have a Russian operative openly rooting for the collapse of America into a racial civil war.

    Don’t take the bait.

    I know you’ve heard it’s over now
    And war must surely come
    The cities they all broke in half
    And the middlemen are gone
    But let me ask you one more time
    O children of the dusk
    All these hunters who are shrieking now
    Oh, do they speak for us?

    You are one of those coastal boomers who never understood why that tangerine charlatan won in 2016. Hint, everyone who voted for him knew he was a lecherous and greedy piece of shit. It is just that he seemed to be the candidate who would not (or could not) maintain the disastrous status quo.

    Remember one of HRC’s slogan- “america is already great”. Try telling that to somebody in rust belt whose livelihood was destroyed by past 20-30 years of outsourcing. Or tell the millions who filed for bankruptcy due to ridiculous medical expenses that their system is the best in the world. What about all those university students buried under a mountain of student debt.. is america already great for them. Or those people who cannot get a decent job after finishing university- tell me how america was exceptional for them.

    You might remember that I pointed out that HRC could not even match the vote count of Obama in 2012, who in turn got millions less votes in 2012 than 2008. Ever wonder why? You know what.. the plutocratic and greedy elite of this country did it to the 99%. But ya.. keep blaming other countries.

    BTW- tell me how “Russia” and “Putin” are responsible for the legacy of slavery, Jim Crow and mass incarceration in this country. Do they make white cops kill unarmed black men?

    • doldrom
      May 31, 2020 at 12:43 pm

      Russian operative? Do you think AD is being paid by Russia? Seriously? Do you think Russia has money to spare to support some marginal American blogger? Why would you even say something so asinine?

      Tell me.. I never received by any “Putin Rubles”, LOL. Then again, what is the point of pulling that shit when your adversary is busy destroying himself through bad decision making.

      • MikeCA
        May 31, 2020 at 2:00 pm

        “Tell me.. I never received by any “Putin Rubles”, LOL. Then again, what is the point of pulling that shit when your adversary is busy destroying himself through bad decision making.”

        So you are admitting you are a Russian agent.

        Nope.. you dummy. I was just commenting on the absurdity of “Russia” and “Putin” trying to destabilize this country when the dumbshit greedy elites are doing such a fantastic job by themselves.

        Ever heard the term- with friends like these, who needs enemies.

      • ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
        May 31, 2020 at 2:10 pm

        donchya know, rubles are so 1990’s, Bad Vlad has been paying us in the only currency that matters…

    • P Ray
      May 31, 2020 at 7:50 pm

      It’s certainly possible how the people accusing others of being “Russian agents” … may actually be the ones who are.

      Plus it’s also a convenient cover for those who “pretend to be CONservative” while trying to get sex from women of other races … then claiming men of other races are “Muh soggy knees”.

      Along with those who think that “work hard and you will succeed” is the correct, complete sentence.
      Actually, the correct and complete sentence is “work hard and be positively noticed by powerful people and you will succeed”, but that marks out the country and milieu as being rife with corruption, nepotism and cronyism … which is why they don’t use the full sentence.

      “Outsiders want to destroy our glorious country” <- you mean the one with only 6 in 1,000 relationships resulting in a marriage, 40% of children born to single mothers, nearly 0.49 on the Gini coefficient, 60% of Americans not able to cover a sudden USD1,000 expense … that glorious country?

  2. doldrom
    May 31, 2020 at 12:59 pm

    Well yes, but …

    “Surely, all these young white people could not have suddenly developed so much empathy for black people within the past couple of months.. could they”

    There are a couple of things different about this murder …
    1. The militarization of the police has not occurred to this extent in any comparable country.
    2. The thousands of incidents with police shooting the person they’re supposed to be helping or checking up on, or shooting a cripple, or somebody who is mentally retarded, or mistaking the house number and shooting everyone by mistake, etcetc. I think I remember reading that US police shot more people in the first 6 months of 2018 than had the British in 125 years … there’s just no comparison between the criminal justice system, prison populations, and police violence anywhere. And there’s enough other countries where not everybody regards the popo as their friends.
    3. This video, with 4 cops engaged for 9 minutes (even after he passed out and was presumably dead) in the torture and killing of someone in obvious life&death distress, without any provocation, without the slightest room for any doubts as to the circumstances, ignoring the guy and his condition and everything shouted by bystanders … it’s just unprecedented in how clearly and graphically it shows what is going down. It might not be that unique, but the presentation sure is. Anybody (and not just young people) can identify with this, regardless of the role you ascribe to police-on-black violence.

    • Everything Connects
      May 31, 2020 at 1:09 pm

      > 4 cops engaged for 9 minutes

      That’s one important thing, nobody can imagine this was in the heat of the moment. This Chauvin guy, he was just staring into space with his hands in his pockets like he was wondering why it was taking so long to get his oil change done.

      Also, he had an Asian wife.

      Despite it being in wonderful Minnesota, the Minneapolis PD apparently had a bad reputation for police misconduct.

      The term chauvinist comes from a possibly mythical French soldier named Chauvin, just for one more ghoulish coincidence.

      • plus d'un cafard
        June 5, 2020 at 6:02 am

        What was Chauvin waiting for? Was he going to stay there indefinitely if his victim hadn’t passed out? Careful Connects, you’re starting to notice things. Like the fact that the murderer and his victim might have known each other. Or that the exact same incidents (phone filming, police, knee, minority victim, without the murder however) happened in Madrid, Paris, and even Tokyo, within a few days’ interval. Who knew this was such a regular event. Why is the paramedic who picks up George in a bulletproof vest? Who knows.

    • P Ray
      May 31, 2020 at 7:57 pm

      Don’t forget Australia (the other interesting country) where 5 policeman, turn a “welfare checkup meeting” into a suicide prevention exercise, with one standing on a disabled person’s head.

      Plus breaking someone’s neck after receiving a noise complaint.

      There are all sorts of wonderful and interesting therapeutic rituals that police administer onto civilians.

    • P Ray
      May 31, 2020 at 8:24 pm

      Sorry, 6 policemen administering therapy to a disabled person, not 5.

      A disabled person is very dangerous after all.

      • bonzo
        June 1, 2020 at 4:33 am

        Police in less developed countries are also way worse than USA. Granted, AD said “comparable” but Russia is arguably more comparable to USA than any country, and Russian police and other security elements are notoriously brutal. Also “violence is as American as apple pie” as Sam Peckinpah put it, and that includes police violence. Most of the western hemisphere countries, other than Canada, are very violent compared to the Europeans who colonized the western hemisphere.

      • doldrom
        June 1, 2020 at 12:54 pm

        I will not defend French gendarms or Chinese or Russian security forces and police, but proportionally they have way less people incarcerated. They also punish oligarchs and white collar criminals once in a while, as opposed to virtually never.

  3. ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
    May 31, 2020 at 1:19 pm

    First point…

    anecdotally, I have noticed much broken glass on streets. Cops aren’t arresting for many things these days. So if you want to break into a car or get back at the fucker who bullied you in middle school, now is the time….

    Second point…

    there is video evidence that much of the vandalism is not being perpetrated by blacks but by whites. Some of them may be bored. Others are either linked up with lispy Dickie Spencer’s alt-reich or the equally racist antifa. (Yes, MikeCA, La Raza and Antifa are racists organizations, get your head outta your ass…)

    • P Ray
      May 31, 2020 at 7:59 pm

      If they don’t get shot or killed that is an object lesson in White privilege – the ability to behave in a criminal or threatening manner without facing a deadly response from law enforcement.

      Plus it helps if you’re a girl, how many more people would get their jimmies rustled if the police manage to kill a White girl?

  4. Jack Sparrow
    May 31, 2020 at 1:25 pm

    Care to comment on why Celebrities are helping fund the bailouts of these looters and rioters who were arrested? Do these celebrities think this will shield them from attacks? There’s a reason why protesters targeted Beverly Hills.

  5. Jack Sparrow
    May 31, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    I mean you have elite Ivy League NY lawyers who participated in throwing molotov cocktails. Why are the elites getting involved?

    • June 3, 2020 at 1:09 pm

      Lawyer could also mean public defender which = shit money. And shit money + NYU education = bad moon

    • P Ray
      June 4, 2020 at 8:37 am

      Helpful article so that people know what and who you are referencing:

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8388125/Obama-era-intelligence-posts-bail-NYC-lawyer-alleged-Molotov-cocktail-Floyd-protest.html‘She is my best friend!’: Obama-era intelligence official guarantees $250,000 bail for NYC lawyer suspected of hurling Molotov cocktail at cop car during George Floyd protests
      Attorney Salmah Rizvi guaranteed the $250,000 bail of a New York City lawyer arrested for allegedly tossing a Molotov cocktail into an NYPD vehicle
      Urooj Rahman was arrested for the alleged fire bombing which happened early Saturday morning during a protest decrying the police killing of George Floyd
      Rizvi said she would guarantee the large sum identifying herself as an associate at Ropes & Gray in Washington, DC, earning $255,000 a year
      The lawyer insisted that Rahman was her ‘best friend,’ when she agreed to cover the amount that got the lawyer out of jail
      Rizvi had worked for the Defense and State Departments when President Barack Obama was still in office
      By RALPH R. ORTEGA FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

      PUBLISHED: 15:22 BST, 4 June 2020 | UPDATED: 15:31 BST, 4 June 2020

      Oh no, a woman did something wrong. Quick, let’s look for a man to blame

      Reminds me of the definition in The Devil’s Dictionary: LAWYER, n. One skilled in circumvention of the law.

  6. doldrom
    May 31, 2020 at 7:15 pm

    LOL. CNN’s Russia conspiracies have finally caught up to them. BLM doesn’t take kindly to having their protest side-lined as Russian sponsored, and took CNN to task. Priceless.

    Little known, but the Yellow Vests in France consciously picked on 3 symbols of the elite: media outlets, banks, luxury stores and culture monuments. One of the reasons their ire was raised by the media is because of their systematic misreporting and ignoring of what was going on. Little known, but the level of police violence exercised by President Moron was egregious and unprovoked; Hong Kong police were polite and careful in comparison.

    In both cases the protests are being compromised by undercover cops, often in the role of provocateurs, sponsored by government. In addition, groups of bad actors who will kidnap any protest for ideologically motivated crap, immediately giving fuel for all the critics and stifling the point being made.

    • P Ray
      May 31, 2020 at 8:02 pm

      One of the perks of being an undercover cop anywhere in the world is you can participate in a lot of the illegal activity, then claim “I was just trying to build a case, gain evidence and have a reputation”.

      So now you can see why many undercover cops work in narcotics, prostitution and contract killing.

      A good way to get drugs, sex and free murder.

  7. doldrom
    May 31, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    The inmates rise up!

    That is the main thing I’m sensing. Lots of people voicing their own rage and identifying with other people/groups’ victimization.

    But obviously large groups feel like inmates.

  8. bonzo
    June 1, 2020 at 4:34 am

    Police in less developed countries are also way worse than USA. Granted, AD said “comparable” but Russia is arguably more comparable to USA than any country, and Russian police and other security elements are notoriously brutal. Also “violence is as American as apple pie” as Sam Peckinpah put it, and that includes police violence. Most of the western hemisphere countries, other than Canada, are very violent compared to the Europeans who colonized the western hemisphere. ..

  9. bonzo
    June 1, 2020 at 4:58 am

    I must say, I think those “hip” journalists are onto something. (Please provide a link so I can check them out.) These lockdowns play havoc with mental health. This is yet another of the unintended consequences of lockdowns that is overlooked by those who enjoyed their lockdown. Lot of free-floating rage out there. People sense they were terribly abused by being put under house arrest for several months, their jobs lost or businesses destroyed, careers on hold, savings depleted, unable to get $1600 stimulus or even regular unemployment because of some bureaucratic or computer snafu. All because of those silly lockdowns which have minimal effect on containing covid19.

    And then you have leaders flouting the lockdown rules, such as that mayor in Chicago getting her hair done, or that Cummings guy in England traveling to a summer house, and the rages just builds and builds, and yet people can’t even visit a gym to expend the rage on a punching bag. I’ve been predicting explosions of some sort from these lockdowns, especially in the USA because of the lack of safety net. Bugaloo crowd is likely jumping for joy right now at their similar predictions finally coming true.

    One thing that hasn’t yet happened, but which I’m predicting, is a rash of kidnappings like in South America in the 1970’s. What stopped kidnappings for ransom money is the problem of collecting the money without getting caught. Bitcoin is a way around that problem, unless Bitcoin is banned, as I expect it will be if used to facilitate kidnapping for ransom. Which is yet another reason I don’t “invest” in bitcoin. There’s also the possibility of political kidnappings, where kidnappers demand political change in exchange for releasing their hostage. I also expect that to take off eventually. And there is the possibility of widespread bioterrorism, using viruses like covid19. Lots of angry young people is a dangerous situation indeed.

  10. bonzo
    June 1, 2020 at 5:01 am

    Sorry about the dup post. That damn Akismet stopped the original from showing up immediately.

  1. June 10, 2020 at 10:26 am

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