Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Potential Consequences of 200-300k COVID-19 Deaths by Election Day

Potential Consequences of 200-300k COVID-19 Deaths by Election Day

In the midst of nationwide protests against police brutality, most mainstream media outlets seem to have conveniently forgotten that the COVID-19 pandemic is still killing (mostly old people) in this country at a pretty constant rate. While we are no longer at the peak of about 3k deaths per day, the plateau of about 1k per day does not seem to be decreasing further. Sure.. most people in NYC have probably been exposed to the virus and recovered from it, but most people in flyover country, the deep south and west coast are just now starting to be exposed to it on a large scale. And this brings up an interesting question.. what if COVID-19 ends up killing 200k-300k more people between now and November 3, 2020 aka election day?

To be clear, I am not restricting my analysis to the political implications of such a scenario- which will be considerable. It goes without saying that 200-300k more deaths (even if most are elderly) will throw a massive wrench in the process of reopening the economy in addition to destroying millions more jobs and small businesses than the original shutdown. While I am sure that the stock market will continue booming in response to trillions more dollars for large corporations in the event of such a scenario, it is clear that everybody else will be poor, angry and desperate- especially since political leaders of both parties have shown themselves to be grossly inadequate for the job. Let us now talk about a few obvious effects of such a scenario playing out..

1] A couple hundred thousand more deaths due to COVID-19 will deplete the older (and largely conservative) voter-base of both parties in more than one way. Firstly, there is direct attrition due to the disease in the form of voters who are dead or unwell from post-infection complications (much more likely in 65+ age group). But the indirect effect of such a large number of deaths among the elderly might keep many more in that age range from coming out to vote in person. While this isn’t that big an issue in states with a robust system for voting by mail, it could be spoil a lot of electoral calculations in states where such systems aren’t already in place.

2] Since neither of the two parties have demonstrated the ability, competence or willingness to help the average person most affected by the shutdown.. who is under 45 and increasingly non-white, it would be presumptuous to count on their votes. While it is unlikely that republican will vote for democratic candidates or vice-versa, it is possible that an unusually large number of voters below 50 will just stay home and note vote by election day. This scenario is especially likely if the economy does not pick up by election day, an almost certain outcome if there an additional 200-300k deaths by election day. So we now have a situation where electoral turnout among under-45 and over-65 is likely to be significantly lower than the previous election.

3] But wait.. there is more. As mentioned in previous paragraph, an extra 200-300k deaths by 3rd of November would pretty much negate all the efforts to reopen economy- even if it was not shut down once again. Think about it.. how many people would go to restaurants and bars again even if they were open. What about movie theaters, concerts, sporting events or even malls and offices. What about the effects of such a prolonged and rolling disruption on millions of small businesses, most of whom operate on fairly small profit margins and do not have access to trillions in bailout money unlike large corporations. To make matters worse, both political parties have exhibited a strong unwillingness to bailout both the average person and small business.

4] Which leads us the likelihood of widespread civil unrest, of a scale that will make ongoing BLM protests seem almost quaint by comparison. It is no secret that a pretty significant percentage of those under 40 have jobs or gigs which either disqualify them from unemployment insurance or restrict their access to such benefits. To make matters worse, many financial institutions and rent-seeking outfits have decided that they will not defer or forgive recurring payments from such people- in spite of already having received trillions to cover their potential losses in the event this occurs. So what do you think these people are going to do when they are being evicted from their residences, chased by loan repayment sharks and unable to maintain necessities such as cars.

Did I mention that most of these people are in good physical shape, more educated than their parents and have nothing to lose. Oh.. and one more things, a high percentage of them are white or something other than black- which means the rioting, unrest and other fun will not be restricted to downtown and ‘urban’ areas of large cities. To make matters even worse.. there is very likely to be another wave of mass layoffs over next few months even if the excess 200-300k deaths due to COVID-19 don’t materialize as many business that seem to have survived the initial shutdown have to either shutdown permanently or lay off a good percentage of their current employees. In my opinion, widespread civil unrest, over next few months, by the under-45 due to the economic consequences of this shutdown is now almost inevitable.

5] A further fly in the ointment has to do with the many ongoing standoffs by dying american empire against a host of countries from Iran, Syria and Venezuela to DPRK, Russia and China. Given that Tangerine man’s closest advisors are neocons and the idiot-in-chief seems to think that this voter-base respect “shows of strength”, it is likely that he will decide to intensify these standoffs or even start a war with Iran or DPRK. It does not take a genius to figure out that such military conflicts are unwinnable for USA and will only worsen the domestic situation, especially if the bozo does this after widespread unrest has already started in this country.

To summarize, an extra 200-300k deaths due to COVID-19 by November 3, 2020 are more likely than not, and will worsen a host of large problems and negative trends that we are are already seeing in this country. 2020 promises to even more ‘exciting’ that we anticipated..

What do you think? Comments?

  1. ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
    June 12, 2020 at 1:27 pm

    “Oh.. and one more things, a high percentage of them are white or something other than black- which means the rioting, unrest and other fun will not be restricted to downtown and ‘urban’ areas of large cities.”

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/

    You are most likely wrong about this. Even batshit crazy liberals won’t “shit where they eat.” Gun ownership is probably a bit higher in the suburbs than you would expect. Lots of people who quietly voted for Trump while saying it’s okay if you have your gay parade and smoke a little weed. (IE economically conservative, socially liberal.) However, if these riots do hit suburbs (less likely because they are less dense) then Trump is virtually guaranteed to win…

    Just a hint.. civil unrest when unemployment rates are above 25% do not look like anything you (or anybody alive today) has ever seen. If things get as bad as I am guessing they might, who wins the election might be an afterthought.

    And ya.. Trump is still the favorite to win in 2020.

  2. abprosper
    June 12, 2020 at 4:39 pm

    Huge numbers of younger protestors and non Whites especially Blacks seem to be dying if this disease. Also most of the Whites dying are already quite ill and in nursing homes so they may well not be regular voters.

    Once you factor rates of exposure as measured by percentage with COVID-19 antibodies, there is no worthwhile discrepancy between rates of death and hospitalization based on race. In NYC, for example, non-whites were about 3 times as likely to be exposed to COVID-19 as whites. Fatality rates, irrespective of race, for the disease in those under 50 is less than 1 in 1000, hospitalization rates less than 1 in 100 and need for ICU is less than 1 in 500.

    The election may not be effected that much. I do agree with the idea that it really doesn’t matter who wins, there will be unrest, caveat a very smart anti immigration pro gun pro freedom Democrat could navigate various tripwires and make a save. Basically Teddy meets Franklin Roosevelt

    No matter who wins the economy is a huge issue and is liable to cause massive levels of unrest. As our host noted, we have never in our lifetimes had 25-50% unemployment and a government that is utterly unable to respond and with the level of division and a lack of that Roosevelt figure to force change.

    And yes the crazy Left will burn the burbs sooner than later though as the poster at 1:27 noted, they are well armed.

    The US military won’t even try to or be able to put down the unrest either which means the last few sources of legitimacy are set to go away.

    To the racial and anarchist aspects. I suspect that the people in charge right now are fine with both and happy to encourage them. Why? Because that divide is intractable and keeps the middle and lower classes who have been screwed over for decades from focusing on the economy.

    This is subject to change though and I suspect you will see real economic issues shoved forward. The government has choice , get the economy moving with good jobs which its thus been unable to do period pay people out or do nothing.

    Failure to fox the issues means its not impossible that the US simply blows up, divide and die as a nation and become a bunch of separate nations. This means the end of Taiwan and very possibly a number of other Asian nations as well.

    The best case scenario is utter economic collapse into the 3rd world and the US becomes a hollow Federalist state.

  3. thordaddy
    June 13, 2020 at 3:02 am

    Three million people die a year in America. Two to three hundred thousand “Covid-19” deaths will make no noticeable impact on this normal yearly mortality. This is media-driven hysteria and all the devil’s advocates are in on the violent dramatics. On the ground, people either know it’s a total scam or they are scrambling to “save face” by a self-mandated muzzling symbolized by a self-imposed masking.

  4. doldrom
    June 13, 2020 at 9:26 am

    Disagree. All cause death is unlikely to deviate much so it will only be a problem in terms of the continuous PR given it by the MSM, but viewer sympathies can easily flip flop. Absent reimposition of lock-downs I don’t see this becoming a big issue, it will fade into the rear view mirror like the Russia hoax, impeachment farce, Bible Photo Op, etc.
    –The thing that will inevitably grow is economic dislocation, despair, and civil unrest: The direction this takes is impossible to predict.
    –There is no election enthusiasm. The only animus is anti-Biden or anti-Trump voting.
    Count on the elections being even more fraud ridden than traditionally already the case. America will again prove that its crappy democracy has the worst actual voting integrity.
    –Foreign adventures are unlikely to be a big issue, and can only be a negative. Foreign policy has never been a big issue in American politics.

    3 Themes will grow as election nears: None are necessarily good for either side.

    1. Economic despair
    2. Civil unrest
    3. Blame for Covid Lock-downs

  5. MikeCA
    June 13, 2020 at 4:42 pm

    Thank you again for giving us the Russian dream plan for how you are going to get Trump re-elected.

    If tangerine man wins in 2020, it will be because Biden is senile and democrats have nothing better to offer potential voters.

    You should note that things are not near as bad in the USA as you paint them because the government actually did something for ordinary working people. In addition to the one time helicopter money payment, they added as much as an extra $600 a week on top of the state unemployment benefits which vary by state (Max in CA is $450 per week). So in CA the max unemployment is now $1050 per week. They also added unemployment benefits for contractors like Uber drivers. This is not perfect. There are still people left out, for example, illegals and the escorts you like to frequent, but enough people are covered that the economy has not collapsed with 25% unemployment.

    Are you aware of living costs in coastal CA (where most people in that state reside)? Do you have any idea how precariously it is for most people who don’t make over 100k/yr? Furthermore, CA is not USA. Have you read about the situation is states such as FL, TX and many southern and mid-western states?

    Those extended unemployment benefits end August 1st. Democrats in Congress have already proposed extending them in some way, perhaps at reduced levels. Republicans have so far opposed any extension of unemployment benefits. Republicans complain that in some cases workers are making more in unemployment benefits than they did when working (which really means that minimum wage is not high enough). Republicans want to cut off the extended unemployment to force workers to go back to work, regardless of whether it is safe for them to go back to work. Of course in many cases there may be no job for them to go back to.

    You do realize that, even under the best or circumstances, things are going to go down for the next few months. Do you have any idea how many people in many urban ares of this country depend on working in restaurants, bars, hotels, malls, retail etc. Or maybe you are one of those who believe that they should all learn to code!

    It was the Democrats in the House that pushed for those extended unemployment benefits in the negotiations with the Trump administration. The Republicans in the Senate would have never agreed to that unless Trump told them. If the economy is not booming by August 1st (which it will not be) Trump can probably be convinced to extend unemployment benefits longer.

    Actually.. more than a few republican senators such as that dumbfuck Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley etc are pushing for even more populist schemes than democrats. But I guess you did not hear it on MSNBC.

    • ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
      June 13, 2020 at 9:09 pm

      Mikey,

      I don’t want to “trigger” you…

      …but…

      gun sales are up…

      You have lost the “culture war” and you don’t even know it…

      Many businesses are putting up BLM signs not because they believe in BLM but because they don’t want their windows smashed. Kind of like an old school payment to the mafia for protection…

      (and let me spell this out for you not believing in BLM does not mean that you don’t think that George Floyd was murdered or that the pigs are a violent bunch.)

    • ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
      June 13, 2020 at 11:06 pm

      Hey Mikey,

      Since I don’t follow Advipoops Crapedhisdiapercoli’s advice to spend my money on pu$$y, what stocks should I buy? Tesla, Amazon, Smith And Wesson, Tyson???

    • ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
      June 14, 2020 at 4:59 pm

  6. TimNewman
    June 13, 2020 at 6:00 pm

    Yo, have you seen Trump´s Wesr Point appearance?

    https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-trump-glass-water-west-point-20200613-dkioabuiirhz7pelj465p2j6he-story.html

    Is it possible that Donny boy had some sort of a minor stroke? Could it be rapidly progressive dementia? Whos gonna be more of a senile demented vegetable come November? Sleepy Joe or Agent Orange? or is it just a bunch of malarkey?

    Whats your hot take?

    Joe Biden has pretty obvious senile dementia, a condition that is progressive and cannot get better.

  7. Jack Sparrow
    June 14, 2020 at 9:17 am

    “Think about it.. how many people would go to restaurants and bars again even if they were open.”

    People aren’t buying into what so-called health “experts” are going to tell them anymore. After all, these “experts” said that “racism” is much more deadly than the virus so “go out an protest”. Then you have the less than credible WHO making statements like “asymptomatic people don’t spread the virus as first thought”. The point I’m making here is that all these “experts” have lost credibility and people are going to continue doing what they are doing from now on. No business is going to shut down. If the Governor & Mayor is allowing a demented socialist uprising in their city of Seattle to grow where the virus was pretty bad, I’m sure no one gives two fucks anymore about the virus.

    • ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
      June 14, 2020 at 10:57 am

      I figure this is what happens when AD visits prostitutes in the age of covid…

      from Imgflip Meme Generator

      Personally, I won’t set foot in a restaurant again. Take out forever baybee…

      I didn’t like bars much to begin with…

      but it was fucking lame that I couldn’t go out on a biking trail or an obscure beach where I would gladly stay 6 feet away from mother fuckers…

      I don’t ever want to work in an office again, especially an open office.

      That being said, if a fucking riot, um, I mean protest is okay, why can’t I see live music with a mosh pit? Kinda a double standard there, eh?

    • ...this blog has gone down in quality as of late...
      June 14, 2020 at 11:00 am

  8. June 16, 2020 at 3:56 pm

    Different subject, but it will probably take more limelight in the near future because it is being broadcasted in more detail than ever before on Netflix and after Netflix’s success with The Tiger King, I’m sure many who are totally ignorant of, or who have only mild interest in, Jeffery Epstein will take significantly more notice and consideration. This is about Netflix’s Jeffery Epstein: Filthy Rich. I never have quite understood what exactly is “filthy” about money or sex other than who has or does not have either, and how one does or does not acquire either, but that is a concern for a different discussion.

    I’ve watched the first 3 episodes so far and like Tiger King, Netflix has done a superb job of titillating the populace with a carefully staged presentation and an orchestrated recipe of facts and omissions that are certain to provoke more interest and each episode is precisely scripted to leave the viewer anxious to continue watching.

    However, two important and fundamental aspects about the Epstein phenomena are worth considering. The first is the method Epstein used to achieve his sexual success (and that is what it was regardless of the legal consequences and anyone’s “moral” judgement). The second is the agency of his sexual targets or, as Netflix bestows them, his “survivors”. Note, being a survivor or a victim has significant agency itself. The whole dynamic would not have been possible without both his strategy and their agency.

    After watching the first 3 episodes and knowing some about the history of Epstein, it becomes unequivocally certain that as far as Epstein is concerned his sexual success can be attributed to one and only one simple strategy. Pyramid scheme. Epstein was actually running a pyramid scheme but it was not based on money (although he was paying the very typical rate of $200 per cheap “trick”). His pyramid scheme was based on sex being an investment into opportunity. Every single girl, excuse me.. every single “survivor”, that Epstein banged, raped, fucked, or was serviced by (pick whatever description makes you feel most comfortable) invested herself sexuality into the dynamic that he set up. The very idea of a young girl “giving a wealthy powerful older man a massage” in exchange for quick unreported $ or “a better life opportunity” is based on what? Sexual bribery, sexual blackmail?

    Every Epstein “survivor” who has spoken up has reported choosing the exact same path to Epstein and the same experiences with him. The only differences are the degrees to which each “survivor” chose to involve herself and the length of time each “survivor” chose to remain involved. The pattern with each was exactly the same and is as follows.

    First each girl was invited BY ANOTHER GIRL (or woman) who was already sexually involved (regardless of whether they claimed to like it or not) with Epstein and had experienced the same sexual behavior with Epstein that the inviting girl knew the invitee would certainly experience. In fact, the sexual experiences is the only reason for the invitations as you will see if you watch the documentary. The invitations always involved providing a “massage” for “an unknown wealthy older man” in exchange for cash. “Nothing to see here”.

    Second each girl would either accept or decline the invitation.

    Third each girl who accepted the invitation from the female inviter then chose to allow said inviter to transport her to Epstein and experienced a sexual encounter of some sort with him. What a special surprise?

    At this point each “survivor” chose to either continue her involvement “surviving” with Epstein or accept the first $200 and end her involvement.

    Fourth, in exchange for another $200, each “survivor” who chose to and would return for another sexual encounter and / or she would invite and transport another new invitee to a sexual encounter with Epstein for $200 each. “Surviving” invitees helped preplan each new “survivors” first “survival” and all subsequent “survivals”.

    Each invitee and / or inviter chose to continue her sexual investment into the scheme by providing sexual favors herself personally to Epstein (or in some cases his “friends” also, whom he undoubtedly blackmailed) or by continuing to supply Epstein with new invitees, and in numerous cases many girls did both. This pyramid scheme involved at least hundreds of girls over several years and probably thousands. The vast majority who have been named by the known “survivors” and their connections have refused to answer questions. Epstein’s scheme was set up in such a way that Epstein did almost no work to grow and maintain it. His “survivors” did all the work until the law was involved. But even after the law was involved, Epstein still did less of the work than the girls as most “survivors” effectively supported his scheme by their silence and refusal to cooperate with the law. Law enforcement was also very likely mitigated by higher a authority who was likely blackmailed by Epstein.

    And so it progressed and continued for literally decades with invitees investing themselves sexually into the scheme to become inviters (recruiters) bringing more and more “survivors” into the scheme as some left the scheme after varying amounts of time and others continued for more money and more perks and the false promise of more opportunity…. just like all other pyramid schemes some legal some not.

    The scheme was of course partly based on the idea that the investors (female invitees who were making a sexual investment) would enjoy growth in their sexual investments by being given a quick and easy opportunity to become successful at various careers such as modeling, art, acting, singing, etc. All they had to do was go give an extremely successful older powerful multibillionaire a “massage” (sexual investment) to start with. Epstein owned an island, jets, a ranch in New Mexico, the most expensive townhouse in Manhattan, a multimillion dollar home in Paris, had extremely wealthy friends and was connected to a lot of the most powerful people on earth. Kind of like a real life version of Christian Grey in Fifty Shades of Grey, but just a little older. And please note, a “cluster fuck” of this magnitude could never occur with a say career garbage collector living somewhere off MLK Boulevard in Anytown USA, now could it? Why. There are basically two reasons. Those reasons are pyramid scheme and personal agency.

    And this brings us to the second important and fundamental aspect about the Epstein phenomena that is worth considering. This second aspect is the aspect of personal agency. Now I have already discussed Epstein’s personal agency sufficiently as I have explained his sexual pyramid scheme and exactly how it worked, and who performed most of the work in it. Therefore, I will now move on to the agency of his “survivors”. The word “survivor” is used to describe those who have barely escaped death or those who survive longer than other people who they have known. This is the meaning of “survivor” to which the vast majority of obituaries refer. I assume Netflix is referring to Epstein’s survivors similar to the way an obituary would since there is no credible evidence that any of them ever actually faced death.

    Now certainly the law is written and hopefully enforced (however poorly) to protect those who are not expected to be held accountable for their own agency. We correctly and universally understand and accept that before certain ages people should not be held responsible for their own decisions and actions like they should be expected to beyond said ages. Selling cigarettes’ or alcohol to a minor gets the seller into far more trouble than the minor. And in Epstein’s case having sex with minors eventually got him into far more trouble with the law than it did the minors. But life has consequences beyond the law that are often far more significant than the law, does it not? I do respect the law. I believe it is good and helps to maintain civil stability, ethical behavior and is intended generally to provide the best social dynamic for the greatest number of people in the given culture. But, understand, this discussion does not pertain to any question of law. Nor does it pertain to a question of moral judgement. Laws and morals vary in specific code from culture to culture and over history. Both are always subject to some change (consider such changes in this country over the past 50 to 60 years). The codes of law and morality are always in and have always been in a state of flux. Moral codes do change over time and do vary from culture to culture.

    As stated, this discussion is not about, nor is it intended to be about, the law or morality or any debates therein considered. This discussion focuses on Epstein’s pyramid scheme of which he was the designing agent and the girls who were the operative agents of it. Both the pyramid scheme and its participating “surviving” operative agents were absolutely crucial to manifest the phenomena that did occur. Regardless of law or morals, both were effective and concurrently essential to the reality that they jointly created. Epstein’s scheme would not have worked had there not been girls willing to choose for whatever reason or excuses to go to him, and to choose to have sex with him no matter how much they liked or didn’t like it, and to recruit other girls to do the same no matter how guilty they did or did not, or do or do not, feel about it. I am stripping this down to the reality about what happened minus all the rhetoric it has been dressed in after its exposure. I am discussing the inconvenient to some but naked truth about it. The scheme itself and those who chose to be participating agents in the scheme were, and still are, the real operatives of what occurred. What did occur happened precisely because of both and in spite of the law and in spite of morals. So, these operatives can logically be considered as more powerful at least for the time in which they formed reality than the law or morals. During that time the laws and morals were nothing more than words on paper and secondary thoughts in the minds of all involved. The reality they intended overpowered the reality that the law and morals intended for at least that period of time, and in a way still do.

    Everyone has agency, or do they not? Even an infant has agency as it attempts to turn over, then crawl, then stand, then walk, then run….. then eventually fuck…. or give a massage for money… or not fuck…. or tell a propositional no and leave and never return… or return and fuck for more money and false promises… and bring other girls to give “massages” for money… knowing they will all be sexually propositioned and possibly raped… KNOWING… and yet CHOOSING to do it all anyway… because they were poor (is this what all poor people do?)… because they came from a broken home (is this what all people from broken homes do?)… because they felt bad about themselves when they were a teenager (is this what all teenagers do when they feel bad about themselves, which is of course at some time all teenagers?)… because their mother was a drug addict (do all female children of drug addicted mothers give strange old rich men massages for $200?)… because the father left the family (because we all know this is what all girls do when fathers are kicked out of the home by mothers)…. endless.

    The law disregards personal agency of minors and it should as, wisely, adults are expected to accept responsibility for the protection of the minors. But as I stated above, this discussion is not about the law. It is about Epstein’s sexual pyramid scheme and the personal agency of Epstein’s participant “survivors”. Considering their personal agency and who is responsible for it, when does that responsibility begin? Does it begin on their 17th birthday suddenly flipped like a switch to correlate with the timing of the law? The law can only do so much, especially when your sisters are recruiting you into such a scheme. Now isn’t that a blatant fact?

    Here is the disgusting truth about the whole cluster fuck (and that is literally what it was by design and the choices of all involved)…

    ALL the players in the game of sexual bribery and sexual blackmail ALWAYS end up losers. There are never any winners in that game, all loose. And after loosing, there is nothing left to do but to play the games of blame and shame. Enjoy the games!

  9. GAY NIGGERS FROM OUTER SPACE
    June 17, 2020 at 2:14 pm

    FYI- Putting multiple links in reply activates spam filter..

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: