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Trump is Still the Favorite for Winning the 2020 Presidential Election: 1

June 17, 2020 13 comments

Many of you might have seen a slew of recent polls which claim that Dementia Joe currently has a 10-point lead over Orange Man. These polls have elicited a bunch of reactions from the “properly credentialed pundit” class. Some see them as the first definitive sign that Trump will finally lose in 2020, others as validation that 24/7 smearing by corporate MSM finally working. Yet others see them as evidence that the country is finally moving in the “right direction”, whatever that means. You might notice that one word keeps popping up in these reactions.. finally. But is that really the case or are these pundit reactions just more wishful thinking? Well, in my opinion these reactions are the later aka more wishful thinking. Here is why..

1] As late as 7 pm ET on November 8th 2016, every “serious” person was certain that HRC was going to win the presidential election. Any suggestion to the contrary was met with a haughty laugh of the type usually associated with “credentialed experts” educated at “elite universities”. Wonder how did all of that work out? Trump won by the only measure which matters according to the constitution aka the electoral college and became president. But have you ever wondered how so many polls could be so wrong? Now, sad pedants such as MikeCA will try to tell you that the polls correctly predicted the popular vote which HRC won by 2-3 million or about 3%. Let us dissect that defense of polls a bit further.. shall we.

Almost all of HRCs margin in popular votes came from two states with a large population (NY and CA). In other words, Tangerine Man won more votes in you add up the other 48 states than HRC. But let us ignore this trivial issue right now and ask a much bigger question- how does a reality show clown with a very public scandal-ridden past become the presidential nominee of one of the two parties in this country- and why would so many people vote for such a sketchy guy over the ultimate “credentialed diversity” candidate? While many are still in deep denial (MikeCA?), the majority of those who voted for Trump did so despite his numerous shortcomings because they preferred him over somebody who represented everything they hated about the system.

But.. but.. some might say, just because every pundit of any fame was wrong in 2016 does not mean they will be wrong again in 2020. Surely these “credentialed experts” must have learned something from their utter humiliation in 2016.. right? Also, wasn’t Trump positioning himself as an outsider in 2016- something he cannot do in 2020 after being a pathetic president for the past four years.. right? Well.. if you think that most people who voted for Trump did so because he was outsider with great promise, I have a bridge to sell you. And no.. the “experts” haven’t learned a damn thing, otherwise they would not be so certain and giddy about Dementia Joe 2020 prospects almost five months before election day.

So let me repeat the obvious.. again.. most people voted for Trump because he sounded, looked and behaved like them and was therefore a giant ‘FUCK YOU’ to an incestuous political system which ignored and immiserated them for the past 40 years. The conditions which led to his rise are still there and in some areas have worsened considerably since 2016. This is also why the 24/7 smear jobs by corporate media outlets, bullshit reports and impeachment hearings have had very little effect on his popularity ratings- which, face it, have always hovered around the mid-40s. Trump’s ratings are bulletproof because the majority of Americans (voters and non-voters) have lost faith in ability of current system to deliver a better future for them. And one more thing.. most people hate the Professional Managerial Class (PMC) with a passion.

2] Since we are talking about the PMC, let us also talk about the political party that represents them in modern american politics aka the Democrats. As I have written repeatedly in numerous older posts, the biggest difference between democrat and republican politicians is that the former tries to portray itself as more enlightened and of “superior breeding”. However other than such superficial differences between the two parties, they are identical and interchangeable for all practical proposes. Now this was not always the case, and upto the late-1970s, the democratic party (both pre- and post- civil rights) was a different beast from the republican party. Then the great realignment of 1968 and rise of neoliberalism occurred.

To make a very long story short, since late-1970s the upper echelon of democratic party have been increasingly populated by people who even a decade prior to that time would have identified as staunch republicans. Yes.. I am talking about the PMC, especially their coastal versions. These are the type of people who say they are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal and pretend to have a “black friend”. But why do the PMC and wannabe-PMCs matter? Well.. because the ideology and apparatchiks of democratic party (even non-white ones) are almost exclusively drawn from this class. Their ascendance in ranks of democratic party and society began in late 1970s and their stock kept rising until GFC of 2008 after which their fortunes have taken a increasingly steep downward turn. But why does these McMansion dwellers matter?

Well.. because almost every major problem facing this country from deindustrialization, job outsourcing, a shitty and expensive “health care” system, over-policing, high levels of income equality, widespread loss of institutional competence etc can be traced back to the rise of this class in american society. Remember when I said that one of the reasons many people voted for Trump over HRC even though she was the ultimate “credentialed diversity” candidate. The thing is.. HRC reminded people of the generic PMC drone who humiliated them in real life, destroyed their livelihood and profited from it. Interestingly, that is also why Romney lost to Obama in 2012. As I said before in this post, most people just hate.. hate.. PMC types.

But what does any of this have to do with Trump likely winning in 2020? Well.. for starters the VP candidate of Dementia Joe is almost certain to be a member of the PMC. Now this would not be totally disastrous if Dementia Joe did not have senile dementia, because most people who vote in presidential elections tend to focus on top of ticket. But as we all know, Joe Biden has.. should we say, serious and progressive neurological issues.The man is a shadow of what he was as late as 2016, and his declining cognitive status will become a major campaign issue and point of attack by Trump’s campaign. But as you will see in the next part of this short series, choosing Dementia Joe as their presidential candidate is a proverbial tip of the iceberg as far as the deliberate incompetence of democratic party is concerned.

In that part, I will go into how the democratic party squandered 3.5 years on fake scandals like RussiaGate, UkraineGate, Mueller Report etc while quietly going along with traditional republican (in reality, corporate) agendas. I will show you how democrats have acquiesced to almost every corrupt move by Trump and republicans- from appointing conservative judges, approving massive increases in military spending, further gutting the already threadbare social safety net, increasing militarization of police and much.. much.. more. But why does any of this matter? The very short answer is- the democratic party can only win elections at all levels in this country decisively IF they exhibit a concrete and sustained desire to differentiate them from the other party in a manner that actually matters to the average voter. I will also go into why Joe Biden is a uniquely bad candidate for 2020, albeit in a different way than HRC was in 2016.

What do you think? Comments?