Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Case Fatality Rates for COVID-19 are Now Decreasing Across the World

Case Fatality Rates for COVID-19 are Now Decreasing Across the World

Since I am feeling a bit lazy today, here is a quick post that is nonetheless quite interesting and topical. Many of you have might have heard about the recent resurgence of COVID-19 cases in USA- especially on the lying corporate media. Well.. I noticed a trend too, and not just in USA. Have a look at the first figure and see if you can spot an interesting change in the trends for positive cases vs ICU admissions vs deaths due to COVID-19 in Sweden during past month. In case you can’t see the obvious, let me spell it out..

While Sweden has experienced a large increase in number of people testing positive for COVID-19, this increase has not translated into an increase in people admitted to ICU with COVID-19 or people dying from it. In fact the number of people dying from COVID-19 has gone down a lot in the past month despite a large increase in number of diagnosed cases, to say nothing about undiagnosed cases. This is even more obvious when you compare those trends and figures to what was happening 2-3 months ago.

Clearly, something big has changed. Perhaps we are testing for it more widely, the median age of cases is lower, maybe our symptomatic treatment regimes have gotten better or the virus have mutated into a less lethal version. It could also be a combination. But whichever way you look at it, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 has dropped considerably over past month in that country. And yes.. I did factor in the 1-2 week lag between diagnosis and adverse outcomes.

Moving on to this country, we see a similar trend. While there has been a huge spike in number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 over past few weeks, number of people admitted to hospital (most are not in ICUs) has increased very modestly while number of deaths keep on declining. Once again, a number of things might have changed- lower median age of cases, better medical management, newer virus strains being less lethal etc. But once again, it is hard to ignore that the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has COVID-19 has gone down considerably in past few months.

Of course, it always possible that the real Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 was always much lower than what discredited institutions such as CDC and FDA were pretending.

BTW, Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = percentage of people who die due to diagnosed cases of an infection while Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = percentage who die in all people with that infection- both clinical and subclinical. IFR rates are often calculated after CFR rates as they are based on retrospective analysis of samples and data.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. P Ray
    July 3, 2020 at 6:44 pm

    Personally I’m looking forward to what happens when NGSF (Next-Generation-Swine-Flu) gets loose.

    Can the world go through another global lockdown?

    Will the US elections happen?

    Time to find out …

  2. low status dudebroe
    July 3, 2020 at 6:47 pm

    Hey Advipoops…

    Here’s where the “open up diss ‘ere muriKKa” reichwingers (and probably you) get things wrong…

    There can be a situation where you may have a 1 in one thousand odds of dying from something…


    may have health complications that last years longer…

    “you” as in a low status “essential” worker will be told to “suck it up” and be grateful for that $2 in “hazard pay” that ends before that requirement for you to wear a mask. But “you” as in “essential” shit worker will be denied coverage for long term health problems such as reduced lung capacity. and “you” will be told, “it’s not like you were an olympian and you probably did that damage to yourself from smoking weed” so “we” (corporate muriKKKa) are NOT responsible. Pull yourself up by the bootstraps, Mike CaCa and Yussef need their but plugs and anal beads, “essential” items. But “you” (low wage shit worker) better suck it up because ‘murriKKKa needs you in these trying times to deliver shit they need so they aren’t as board in lockdown with their tranny pr0n and first world problems. How dare “you” (little man) cry that your long term health may be impacted by this. Spannish Flu “may” have caused long term health problems for babies born during that time frame-oh, stop listening to that Alex Jones cup and accept that you are lower on the HBD scale than those precious WFH white people, err, remember to go out and vote for sloppy Joe “you” worthless piece of shit.

    • P Ray
      July 3, 2020 at 10:49 pm

      One of the things a lot of people forget is …

      Clean water only came around as a public amenity because poor people living without it could get infected and pass it on to the rich via day-to-day activities – the best being pooning.

      That is another reason why countries, companies and citizens will make basic sanitation free or very easily available to the poor.

      The only weapon the poor have against exploitation, injustice or segregation … is disease.

      • low status dudebroe
        July 4, 2020 at 12:18 am

        just think, it’s only a health crisis when all the garbage WFH assholes get sick because “muh freedumb” to drink at enclosed bars for independence day…

  3. twm
    July 6, 2020 at 12:11 pm

    @AD Have you considered the lag between new cases and new deaths? Not that this explains all of it…

    Sweden has seen a big increase in cases over past 1.5 months along with a simultaneous large decrease in deaths by numbers (and percentages). How do you explain that?

    Also all hospitalization (normal+ICU) in USA has increased very modestly in USA despite a humongous increase in number of cases. How do you explain that?

    • twm
      July 11, 2020 at 2:43 pm

      Well now the hospitalization rate is back to high levels …

      August 10, 2020 at 1:31 pm

      Because a case is a one thing and covid-19 is another thing.

  4. July 7, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    Now, one should also consider the fact that normally (virtually always) viral infection rates of any highly contagious virus rapidly increase during the EARLY period of exposure to a given population. Subsequently and soon after, the infection rate drops off significantly as such viruses rapidly spread through the population. As more are infected, fewer are not. Math never lies and population is limited, birth rates cannot match infection rates. So the spread of COVID would be rapid and then ebb, given what is known about viruses in general and what presstitutes, authorities and experts have told us about COVID-19. Certainly this would be true for any highly contagious virus and especially for a virus that can be transmitted before any symptoms occur…

    ….and extremely especially for a virus that many people carry and spread without ever having any symptoms at all and without being aware that they have it.

    COVID-19 being highly contagious, and “hidden” in those with asymptomatic infection, would surely have already infected by far the great majority of USA, not now, but in the early spring of 2020 given the fact that it first arrived in USA in late 2019. In fact, considering the nature of COVID-19 as reported by presstitutes, politicians and their supporting medical “experts”, one would certainly know that the virus would have already spread throughout USA in the first few months that transpired after its introduction into the population of USA. And this would have occurred, given what we have been told about the virus and applying commonsense, before the first “shut downs”, quarantining, etc. And if it did not, then how is it so extremely contagious as all parties present? And if it is so horribly dangerous, then why are significant numbers of people not affected by it at all or experience only mild symptoms?

    So, what is really going on, what has been going on with this virus from its first introduction and perhaps its inception?

    The most notable aspect about this virus is that it is the perfect virus for political use. This is true for several reasons. It is extremely contagious. It kills some but affects many others with only mild symptoms or no symptoms. It is unpredictable as it has been reported to re-infect some. It can apparently be turned on or off at will (by politicians or nature?) Its symptoms apparently include everything from coughing to blood clots to diarrhea to vomiting, to fatigue, to headache, to lethargy, to pneumonia and a list of additional numerous various other ailments. Yet, apparently, the virus was not dangerous enough to motivate authorities to stop mass gatherings to conduct massive protests and rioting and, for example, the “takeover” of six blocks of Seattle, WA. The police even left those six blocks be held hostage by an idiotic mob of imbeciles for several weeks while authorities apparently had no concern for the spread of COVID-19 related to that event.

    Yet, immediately as small and medium sized businesses reopen and the thought of life returning to normal begins to become a possibility in the minds of most, with the upcoming election,…suddenly… the alarm is resounded and all must be shut down again. Are they preparing for another rash of protests with which they will have no concerns regarding COVID-19 yet again?

    COVID-19s greatest historical significance will be that it is the most political virus in the history of the human species.

  5. Lalit
    July 7, 2020 at 9:29 pm

    Can you talk about India a bit. Deaths just keep rising. Let alone flattening the curve, the curve is not yet even linear. It is still rising exponentially.

    The death rates are still pretty low. Also, it looks like numbers of asymptomatic (or minimally symptomatic) infections are far higher. So far, much better than Europe or USA.

    • Lalit
      July 8, 2020 at 8:35 am

      You had predicted India, being a sad imitator of the west, would turn into a clusterFuck. Do you see reason to change that prediction or do you say it is early days still and it could still blow up in India?

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