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Damage Due to COVID-19 Restrictions Will Cause a Huge Backlash- 1

December 19, 2020 20 comments

For the past few weeks, I have been considering writing a post (or two) listing my predictions for 2021. Since I have some spare time right now, let me start by making an obvious series of predictions about the upcoming year. And yes.. I have tackled this topic in a previous series and other older posts. I have also written about the ineffectiveness of conventional face masks and likely issues with widespread use of any potential vaccine. Thus far, every aspect of the response in western countries to COVID-19 from damaging widespread lockdowns that have no worthwhile effects on caseloads, ineffectual facemasks policies, hamhanded and delusional vaccination policies are creating a lot of fuel for huge public backlashes in 2021.

1] The most important determinant of long-term public support for all governmental policies concerning any war, restrictions or other deprivations comes down to the simple question- how much does it inconvenience or hurt the median person? Let me remind you that american public support for Vietnam war was very high in the beginning, but declined sharply once conscription became widespread and increasing number of recruits came back in body bags or as cripples. Similarly, the Iraq War was popular towards in the beginning when many stupid muricans believed they could win it at very little personal cost. Once it became obvious that the war was creating an endless stream of brain-damaged and crippled veterans, it became far less popular. The inability to move freely in Iraq years after that failed occupation, due to multiple ongoing insurgencies, did not help its popularity either.

So how does this knowledge help us predict the now inevitable backlash against botched response to COVID-19 by western countries, especially USA. For starters, we now have tons of data from both adjacent countries and states that brain-dead measures such as lockdowns, public making, closing restaurants and other small business etc have almost no effect on the rise and fall of case numbers. While some of you might not have heard about this because of spending too much time watching CNN and MSNBC- it is now increasingly common knowledge that many measures such as public masking pushed by public health “scientists” and faceless bureaucrats are nothing more than public theater while others such as closing restaurants, small businesses and physical retail are actively harmful. In the first 2-3 months people went along with the bullshit because they were afraid of the unknown, but now too many know somebody who tested positive for COVID-19 and had an uneventful spontaneous recovery.

My point is that the number of people who know somebody who contracted COVID-19 and recovered without complications is many fold more than those who know somebody who died. And for good reason! Mortality due to that infection in the under-50 population is somewhere between 1 in 5,000- 10,000. In fact, it crosses the 1 in 1,000 figure only for people above 60 and healthy non-institutionalized old people between 70-80 have a mortality rate of about 2-3%. But why does this matter? Well.. to put it bluntly, western societies don’t care much about lives of very old and institutionalized. While they may pretend to care about such people to show others around them that they are “good people”, they cannot keep up the charade for long if it is causing them to lose lots of money. By continuously lying to people that COVID-19 is far more dangerous than it is, the public health establishment in West is is serious risk of losing any residual public credibility which it might still have.

Which brings us to the second set of reasons why things are going to go ballistic in many countries aka this shitshow has been going on for almost 9 months now.

2] As you know, most human beings are conformist cowards who will go along any stupid belief system for a short time. The real problems start once the ridiculous crap continues past a few months. At that point, people will start reevaluating their previous beliefs- especially if they think that those beliefs are causing them financial or other loss. This is why most people either don’t join cults or slowly drop out of them as things get more extreme. While west European countries have a significantly better social safety net than USA, even they cannot keep the economy going for more than a few months. Things are even worse in countries with more fragile service-based economies + low job and career security + almost non-existent social safety net such as USA. Note that the shutdowns and restrictions are causing far more unemployment and financial damage to people under 40 and 50 than those over 65-70.

The problem with public health “scientists” and politicians trying to push their ineffectual ideas about indefinite lockdowns is that in addition to exaggerating the threat of COVID-19 they have not adequately compensated the people whose businesses and livelihoods have been affected. Even European countries which have far more generous wage replacement schemes than USA have not been able to make up the income loss to affected workers, not to mention uncertainty about future of affected business. The simple fact is that there many times more people who are being deliberately pushed into poverty by lying and incompetent governments in Western countries than there are people above 80. Things are even bleaker in USA where wage support is basically nonexistent for most laid-off and furloughed workers. Did I mention that most affected small businesses in USA are fucked.

To make matters worse, in almost every single Western country including USA the center-left part and its vocal minority PMC-class supporters are in favor of indefinite lockdowns without any hope or compensation. These sinecured assholes have lost all touch with the daily reality of a much larger group in their country. I predict, with complete certainty, that this will lead to the sort of backlash which will make Brexit vote and Trump’s election in 2016 look quaint. For example- the results of 2022 election in USA, barring some miracle or extreme incompetence by Republicans, will make the previous defeats suffered by Democratic party look comically small by comparison. I also predict similar electoral carnage for many other ruling parties in Western Europe in next two years- along with significant improvements in public support for right-wing parties. History might not repeat, but it often rhymes.

3] Many of you might have also heard that many social media companies and internet monopolies in the “free” West are trying to censor “unofficial” information about COVID-19, vaccine side-effects etc. I predict that such behavior by these corporations will have two main effects. Firstly, it will greatly increase public support behind those attempting to break up and regulate those corporations. But more importantly, it will amplify the very messages and distrust in “credentialed” authority which they are trying to suppress. If you don’t believe ask anybody for pre-1989 Eastern European countries if they believed official news about their own country. And yes.. it also feeds back into the anti-establishment dynamic which I talked about in the previous paragraph. The next two years will be most interesting.

The already moribund public health establishment in Western countries will be among the biggest loser in aftermath of this backlash. For starters, they have they lost any residual public goodwill during the past 9 months due to their inability to control COVID-19. But far worse was their poorly thought decisions (not based in scientific facts) which have caused massive damage to lives of thousands of times more people than those who died from COVID-19. Their pathetic attempts to pretend that COVID-19 vaccinations are safer than natural infection in younger age-groups is almost guaranteed to start some backlash in the next few weeks. Then again, public health in the past 40 years has been largely an exercise in bullshit mathematical models and SJW beliefs with no basis in reality. Will write about the effect of backlash on public perception of schools, universities, PMCs and politicians in upcoming part.

What do you think? Comments?