Home > Critical Thinking, Current Affairs, Dystopia, Musings, Philosophy sans Sophistry, Reason, Secular Religions, Skepticism > Anyone Else Having a Foreboding of Large-Scale Global Instability?

Anyone Else Having a Foreboding of Large-Scale Global Instability?

As many know, I have a strong interest in many areas beyond my professional expertise. One of them is history, specifically as reconstructed from multiple independent and often contrary sources. The context of historical events also matters. It is, for example, hard to understand why WW1 kept going for over four years even though almost every party in that conflict was losing people and material on an industrial scale over that timespan. Hint: it had as much to do with ideology of nationalism, race-based ethnocentric beliefs and mass culture as it to do with the productive capabilities of industrialized countries. My point is that all “official” history is outright bullshit and the past can only be only understood by careful reconstruction of the course of events as seen from multiple viewpoints in the proper context.

With that in mind, let us talk about an interesting pattern that keeps popping up throughout history- but especially within the past 150 years. Outbreaks of large scale wars, civil wars, collapse of empires and widespread generalized global instability tend to follow a general pattern. To better understand what I talking about, let us focus on a few events in past 110 years such as WW1, collapse of some old European empires in its aftermath, inter-nation conflict in eastern Europe during 1920s, warlord era in 1912-1949 China, WW2, post-WW2 collapse of European colonialism, collapse of USSR, beginning of collapse for american empire after 2003 etc. Ever wondered if there is a common thread running through all these events other than them occurring within past 100 years?

Well.. there is one. As it turns out, almost nobody was able to predict that these events would occur even 3-5 years before they occurred. But why were so many unable to foresee a course of events which in retrospective seem inevitable? Why were all the “geniuses” and “experts” of that era unable to foresee how disastrous WW1 would turn out? One possible explanation is that too many of these “experts” had such a strong vested interest in the status quo that they were unwilling to consider a world where that would change. But why were the contrarian “experts” of those eras also blind to the actual likelihood of these massive and systemic events. What cause almost all the “smart” people of that era to ignore the obvious?

Here is my hypothesis about why so many were oblivious to the real risk of large systemic events. The short version is that even decaying systems appear far stronger than they turn out to be under real stress. This is why, for example, why the Ottoman Empire, Romanov dynasty and Ottoman empire looked far stronger in 1914 than they turned out to be under real-life adverse conditions. This is also why nobody foresaw the collapse of USSR and all those other communist regimes in Eastern Europe as late as 1986. It is also why the USA of 2003 thought they had the capability to occupy Iraq and subdue all those pesky Arabs in that country. Or why almost nobody imagined that the GFC of 2008 would occur.

Complex systems, especially highly-centralized ones, are always much more fragile than they appear. BTW- China is a significantly more functionally decentralized system than USA or other western countries. And this leads us to the next question- how do we determine which systems are fragile or whether current trends will lead to some “unforeseen” outcome? Let me answer the second question first. See.. to model the effect of any trend, you have to first identify it. For example, the effect of European style nationalism on intra-ethnic conflict were not fully appreciated until after WW1. But could this trend have been identified before 1914?

Well.. yes, because the problematic effects of “modern” nationalism were obvious in Balkans and outlying parts of the Ottoman empire for at least a couple of decades before WW1 started. Similarly, the ability of industrialization to prolong wars and fundamentally change their nature was obvious as far back the american civil war and hard to ignore after the Russo-Japanese war in 1905. The arms race, colonialism race and potential for conflict among European countries were obvious for at least two decades before WW1. So why did even the contrarian “smart” people of that era ignore these obvious trends? The simple answer is that they thought that a system which could handle all these trends and contradictions for a decade or two would be able to keep doing so indefinitely.

This is also why, for example, all of the signs of socio-economic stagnation in USSR and other East-European communist countries which began in early-1970s was ignored and seen as unimportant till it wasn’t. It is also why so many western China “experts” were unable to see the real long-term effects of outsourcing manufacturing on a huge scale to that country. But what does any of this mean for the era we live in today? For starters, we live in an era of multiple systemic trends which will end in disaster- sooner or later. Consider, for example, how USA and the west approach nuclear proliferation. You have to a pretty delusional white ivy-leaguer, if you think that DPRK is going to give up or even slow down its acquisition of nuclear weapons and ICBMs. The same is now almost inevitable for Iran and they too are very likely to go down that particular path in near future.

Then there is the issue of continued and escalating conflicts with Russia on a number of issues ranging from oil and gas pipelines to nuclear weapon deployment and proxy wars. Then there is the trend of China becoming the predominant manufacturing superpower and largest functional economy of our era- without accepting western-style financialism. Did I mention that they also have nukes and ICBMs. We cannot forget that all of this occurring in addition to the slow-motion collapse of american military capabilities and civil society in addition to a profound demographic decline among its European allies. We cannot also forget that the “west” has been in a state of technological stagnation for past twenty years while rest of world has either caught up or moved on. All these systemic trends are adding up rather quickly.

Now add in the massive socio-economic issues caused by the botched handling of COVID-19 pandemic by western countries. Do you really think that public trust in public institutions of those countries has not experienced a serious decline within past year. So you really think all the half-assed and open-ended authoritarian measures instituted by these countries won’t cause serious blow-back and greatly increased levels of political polarization. I just don’t see a way how the combination of multiple and irreconcilable systemic trends exacerbated by more acute trends such as those caused by mismanaging COVID-19 pandemic can lead to anything other that widespread global instability that will upset the rotten status quo.

And yes.. there are other trends and issues such as precarity and childlessness of younger generations in western countries which I have barely touched upon in this post.

What do you think? Comments?

  1. mike caca is a megacuck
    March 3, 2021 at 9:04 pm

    just think in a few years, all those obese murikkkans who said “go back 2 yer own cuntry” will be trying to expat but no one will want them…

  2. March 4, 2021 at 12:37 am

    A comment left on a video by the gay razzist kkk nazzzi Ziggy Stardusk lzolIzozolzol:

    Tim Bucks:
    Two years before the Soviet Union broke up, I had a hunch that it would do so. That view was considered crazy at the time, as most people expected the USSR to be around for centuries. I had a hunch the other day that USA would not be around in 5 years. That view is considered crazy today.
    1 month ago

    • RYU
      March 4, 2021 at 11:39 am

      ah, thanks for proving that wordpress has crappy security and you can pretend to be someone other than you are.

      You are welcome in our WN bathhouse anytime as we are sure you aren’t that mulatto who has taunted us since 2011….

  3. Morpheus
    March 4, 2021 at 3:32 am

    The biggest male surplus in human history; what could possibly go wrong?

    Take the Demographics Pill:

    Welcome to World War 3.

    • P Ray
      March 4, 2021 at 8:37 am

      There is a “male surplus” because women don’t want them. … so the only way to become desirable … is kill the males of other countries, and take their women.
      It’s funny how so many wars happened … because women were UNHAAAPPY.

      I remember some famous Abrahamic religion founder, saying he looked into hell and saw it was full of women. Funny how very few people remember that saying.

      And of course the one major difference between then and now is … there weren’t many atomic weapons around then.

    • doldrom
      March 7, 2021 at 4:27 pm

      This video has a lot of really thought provoking information, much of it new to me.

      I have read many times that when the demographic pyramid topples upside down, it generally signals a species is about to become extinct. I have even seen this principle applied to the waning of the Neanderthals (instead of competition with homo sapiens).

  4. (((They))) Live
    March 4, 2021 at 12:54 pm

    Most people who spot big problems early on, get the timing wrong on when the consequences arrive, my own opinion is that yes there is a ton of shit coming down the track, but it will be about 10 years before it really arrives, the Biden regime may of course speed things up

  5. P Ray
    March 5, 2021 at 12:21 am

    Another interesting prelude to war is lack of essential goods and services.

    Right now, low-end graphic cards have risen in price – in some places, used cards are back to their selling price in dollar amounts from 5 years ago.

    AMD Ryzen processors, the high-end ones are either not available or have a price premium.

    Intel processors are costly.

    PS5 and Xbox Series X? Good luck getting once.

    New nVidia and AMD graphic cards? ditto.

    About the only things you can get easily, are RAM and hard drives.

    This would be very good news for people who already have the (built-in performance graphics) AMD Ryzen 5 2400G/ 5 3400G/ 5 4650G … and no comfort at all if you don’t.

    Oh ya, and of course, the majority of the above … running only on Windows 10.

    For an unprepared person, 2021 and possibly 2022 look like a very bad year for enjoying gaming unless you are both rich AND connected (if you can’t get your hardware supply … having the money to buy product is not very useful)

    • P Ray
      March 5, 2021 at 12:22 am

      Sentence correction: PS5 and Xbox Series X? Good luck getting once.
      should read:

      PS5 and Xbox Series X? Good luck getting one.

  6. bonzo
    March 5, 2021 at 8:01 am

    Are you suggesting the world is in for a spanking, like in your NSFW cartoon links?

    My long held prediction is that US surface naval power is the real paper tiger. I don’t expect the Chinese to sink the whole USA surface fleet, but when and if conflict breaks out, they will sink one entire carrier group in the South China Sea, making USA surface navy weakness evident to the entire world, which will have massive repercussions.

    Most of Asia ex-China doesn’t want USA naval weakness, because they fear China far more than USA. So what will happen is a massive realignment as Asia ex-China tries to build enough military power to counter China without depending on the USA. In particular, instead of the Japanese, Koreans, etc hoarding US dollars, they will spend those dollars on methods to contain the Chinese, either building their own military or maybe helping India build its military or maybe countering Chinese influence in Africa, etc. Funday result is that US dollars will be in excess for a change, causing inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, and that will spell massive disruption in world economic markets.

    • doldrom
      March 7, 2021 at 4:25 pm

      Do Canada and Mexico spend a lot of money to counter the US threat on their borders, or have they resigned themselves to dealing with it diplomatically since military options seems somewhat futile?

      • bonzo
        March 9, 2021 at 8:20 am

        Good point. I was probably not thinking clearly because my mind was focused on those spanking cartoons.

  7. MikeCA
    March 5, 2021 at 9:59 am

    So now you have gone from fantasies of a second civil war in USA to fantasies of World War III.

    This is all part of the Russian plan to destabilize Western countries and convert Europe and the USA to mafia state kleptocracies.

  8. March 7, 2021 at 1:29 pm

    Yep, but starting 53 years ago, in 1968, when I was a precocious twelve-year-old who actually read newspapers and gave attention to the daily TV and radio news.

    I wasn’t the only one, as Barry McQuire’s pop song indicated in 1965:

    “The Eastern world, it is explodin’
    Violence flarin’, bullets loadin’
    You’re old enough to kill but not for votin’
    You don’t believe in war, but what’s that gun you’re totin’?
    And even the Jordan river has bodies floatin’
    But you tell me over and over and over again my friend
    Ah, you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction
    Don’t you understand what I’m trying to say?
    Can’t you feel the fear that I’m feeling today?
    If the button is pushed, there’s no running away
    There’ll be no one to save with the world in a grave
    Take a look around you boy, it’s bound to scare you, boy
    But you tell me over and over and over again, my friend
    Ah, you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction
    Yeah, my blood’s so mad, feels like coagulatin’
    I’m sittin’ here just contemplatin’
    I can’t twist the truth, it knows no regulation
    Handful of Senators don’t pass legislation
    And marches alone can’t bring integration
    When human respect is disintegratin’
    This whole crazy world is just too frustratin’
    And you tell me over and over and over again my friend
    Ah, you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction
    Think of all the hate there is in Red China
    Then take a look around to Selma, Alabama
    Ah, you may leave here for four days in space
    But when you return, it’s the same old place
    The poundin’ of the drums, the pride and disgrace
    You can bury your dead but don’t leave a trace
    Hate your next door neighbor but don’t forget to say grace
    And you tell me over and over and over and over again my friend
    You don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction
    You don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction”

    Nor was I the last one, as John Lennon’s 1968 “Revolution”, (either version) written in response to the global social/economic/political upheavals of 1968, indicates:

    “You say you want a revolution
    Well, you know
    We all want to change the world
    You tell me that it’s evolution
    Well, you know
    We all want to change the world
    But when you talk about destruction
    Don’t you know that you can count me out (in)
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be
    All right?
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    You say you got a real solution
    Well, you know
    We’d all love to see the plan
    You ask me for a contribution
    Well, you know
    We’re all doing what we can
    But if you want money for people with minds that hate
    All I can tell you is brother you have to wait
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    You say you’ll change the constitution
    Well, you know
    We’d all love to change your head
    You tell me it’s the institution
    Well, you know
    You better free your mind instead
    But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao
    You ain’t going to make it with anyone anyhow
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)
    Don’t you know it’s gonna be (all right)”

    Whether or not “it’s gonna be alright” remains to be seen…but, take it from this 65-year-old, out-of-step-with-his oligarchical LIEberal and CONservative, short-and-selective-memoried, self-absorbed peers…there really ain’t nothin’ new in essential conflicts, problems, and dilemmas under the sun, except the names and the tech.

  9. miforest
    March 7, 2021 at 10:09 pm

    we are all in big trouble . the supply chains are wrecked , but like a train wreck , collapse unfolds slowly but unstoppable .

    • P Ray
      March 8, 2021 at 8:26 am

      It turns out the “supply chains” were actually “supply strings” …

      ‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping
      The pandemic has disrupted international trade, driving up the cost of shipping goods and adding a fresh challenge to the global economic recovery.

      Don’t forget to add to the mix:
      1)scalpers driving up prices of consoles, graphic cards, processors, shoes
      2)people stuck at home wanting something to spend their money on
      3)children competing with each other at school about who has the coolest stuff
      4)Taiwan’s drought, most severe in 56 years – remember, water affects every single part of the semiconductor making process
      5)Fabs in Texas also running out of clean water and stable power
      6)Bitcoin miners grabbing graphic cards before they get to retailers
      7)Restaurants closed due to CoViD-19 so women can’t find men to pay for their meals
      8)E-thots competing with deepfakes
      9)China hosting the most Bitcoin miners
      10)USA continuing the trade war
      11)House prices out of reach in the White 5 – USA, Canada, NZ, Australia, UK … with no end in sight

      Remember the lovely words of the Bible: For in much wisdom is much grief; and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow.

  10. Naughty Naughtzi
    March 23, 2021 at 10:34 pm

    The year is 2025 — the world is now controlled by a One World Bureaucracy based out of New Zealand consisting of the Rockefeller and Rothschild progeny, Hilary Clinton, an ageing George Soros, and a technocratic alliance consisting of — Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Susan Wojcicki, Jack Dorsey and Sundar Pichai.

    The entire world’s debt has been wiped clean and all fiat destroyed. The world monetary system now consists of the SDR (special drawing right) fully functional by use of blockchain technology and completely integrated into the 7G network. Gold is illegal and possession of the commodity will render the death penalty. All transactions are completely surveilled (for your safety) and purchasing firearms will result in immediate shipment to re-education camps. These camps are set up for the general well-being of the empire, utilized to indoctrinate the climate deniers, anti-vaxers, gun owners, and any other dissidents to the New Order. All Books have been burned and possession of books will result in the death penalty. A fully stocked digital library has been made available to you by the gracious Jeff Bezos.

    The world was saved by the illustrious and altruistic philanthropist Bill Gates who created the microchipped vaccine in 2024, ending the 4 year ‘shelter in place’ order. People are now allowed to stand in bread lines for 1 hour periods as long as their social credit score is acceptable. The entire world receives a 2k per month SDR wellness check from the gracious Rothschild family to be used for food. All housing is subsidized by the New Zealand based One World Party (OWP). Each year, a new and improved required vaccine comes out for the general safety of the public.

    As an aside – I had to wait a week for food because I jay-walked on Monday — bringing my social credit score down to unacceptable levels.

    Pedophilia is now an illegal term that is fully regulated by the Ministry of Truth (MoT) and has been replaced by the latin based idiom — iuvenis puer amans, making sexual relations with anyone under 18 fully legal . The global population has been on a 5% decline over the past 5 years — greatly improving the world climate according to One World News Network (OWNN). Sperm counts are now 1/50th of the level 50 years ago which has been praised as one of the main benefits of 7G and further saving the planet via population decreases.

    Humanity has been bifurcated into two species: A tiny sociopathic elite lording over a permanent underclass of human livestock, with less than half the IQ of the elites. The world is now living in a hellish global favela where everyone fights each other for scraps, and nobody will be intelligent enough to figure out who the real oppressors are, let alone organize against them.

    The Elite live in opulence, fucking children and snacking on pineal glands until the end of time.

    ‘What’s that at the door?’ I say to myself as I put down my pen.
    — “Open up, it’s the ministry of truth.” —

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