Archive

Archive for June 6, 2021

‘Lab Leak’ Theory for COVID-19 Was Always the Most Realistic One

June 6, 2021 16 comments

Over a year ago, I wrote a post about how COVID-19 was most likely the result of a ‘gain of function’ research. In that post, I referenced an article which made a very good and verifiable case that COVID-19 (also known as SARS-2 at that time) had multiple features which were almost certainly the result of human manipulation. At that time, such talk was considered to be “conspiracy theory” and “disinformation”. Well.. after 500k (maybe 400k?) deaths in USA and Biden’s election to presidency a few months ago, it seems that this theory for COVID-19 origin has suddenly become respectable in “mainstream media”. Very tellingly, over the past year the majority of americans kept believing that COVID-19 was the product of manipulation in a lab rather than direct transmission from some wild animal such as a bat.

To be clear, the main progenitor virus for COVID-19 was almost certainly a bat coronavirus. It’s secondary (and minor) parent was also almost certainly a pangolin coronavirus. However it is very clear, based on a number of features of COVID-19, that the recombinant progeny of these two wild coronaviruses was not the result of a natural event outside the lab. While these features have been mentioned in a number of articles (such as link 1 and link 2). While I could certainly write a longer post detailing the many ways that some of the most relevant features of COVID-19 are far more likely to have arisen as a result of lab manipulation than natural selection, it is best done as a separate post. The very short version is that the combination of features of COVID-19 which underlie its high infectivity in humans are simply too numerous to have arisen naturally in such a short timespan.

Moreover, we still haven’t found a very similar virus in either bats or another animal. Contrast this state of affairs to what happened with SARS in 2003, where they were able to identify the intermediate animal host within 6 months (and original host within a couple of years). Also, the amount of resources spent on that search was a tiny fraction of those devoted to finding their equivalents for COVID-19. To make matters worse, a bunch of FOIA-ed emails from Faucci show that many “experts” who dismissed the lab leak theory actively considered and discussed it at the same time they were issuing denials and writing articles to “debunk” it. We also know that many officials in american medical research bureaucracy wanted to suppress any talk of lab leaks since it would jeopardize their own funding for ‘Gain of Function’ research in viruses. In fact, it is very likely that american collaborations with the Wuhan Institute occurred because regulations in USA made it hard to do such research in this country.

Which brings us to how most of the concrete evidence for an artificial origin for COVID-19 was uncovered by so-called “amateurs” rather that “credentialed experts“. Ever wonder whether these so-called “professional experts” were just incompetent or malicious? I think that it is a combination of the two. While certain “certain experts” such as Peter Daszak, Ralph Baric and Anthony Fauci actively tried to discredit the lab leak theory inspite of clearly understanding (at a very early date) that the virus was most likely the product of ‘Gain of Function’ research, many others were likely too stupid to understand their own incompetence and therefore went along with whatever groupthink was fashionable at that time. And this isn’t surprising, since modern academics selects for submissive, uncreative and borderline incompetent people with strong conformist tendencies. There is a reason why scientific progress in West has largely stagnated for past two to three decades.

So where does all of this lead to? Well.. for starters many “mainstream media” outlets have been trying to stealth-edit all of their previous articles in which they dismissed the ‘lab leak’ theory as “conspiracy” and “disinformation”. Of course, they are getting caught doing so. But this raises an even bigger question- what else they have been promoting over past year has been a lie? After all, these are the same people who tried to convince the american public that Bin Laden had a ‘Dr. Evil’ type headquarters in some mountain in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein had WMDs. Consider this.. Fauci’s emails clearly show that he himself never believed that COVID-19 could be stopped by cloth or surgical face masks. However, as we all know, he kept aggressively promoting such face masks until the past 2-3 weeks. And yes.. there have been multiple studies which show that normal face masks have no worthwhile effect on the transmission of other respiratory viruses.

In my opinion, the much bigger question is how the final public acceptance of COVID-19 being created by ‘Gain of Function’ research will shape their willingness to fund such research, or even anything vaguely similar to it, in the future. Think about how the Three Miles Island and Chernobyl accidents shaped public attitudes towards nuclear power generation. And let us honest about something else.. lab accidents which accidentally released pathogenic microbes resulting in human diseases, deaths and animal epidemics are not unknown. So something like the lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) leak was inevitable. In fact, I am surprised that a massive fuck-up involving generically-engineered pathogens did not happen sooner. Might write another post on this topic based on reader responses and more relevant information in the very near future.

What do you think? Comments?