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YT Clips about Medical Bureaucratism and Ivermectin in COVID-19

June 10, 2021 5 comments

Here are a couple of YT clips about how LIEbral “intellectual” authoritarianism and medical bureaucratism is trying to pretend that Ivermectin has no role in early treatment of COVID-19 for high-risk patients. To be clear I am not suggesting that the drug in question is some magic bullet for that disease. However, it is clear that Ivermectin (and a few other repurposed drugs such as Indomethacin, Azithromycin, Doxycycline, low-dose Hydroxychloroquine, low-dose Colchicine, inhaled Fluticasone, inhaled Interferon-alpha etc) did seem to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death in high-risk patients, IF given within first 2-3 days of symptoms.

While we do have multiple effective vaccines since the beginning of this year, it worth nothing that the bulk of deaths due to COVID-19 in USA and other western countries occurred before they were widely available. In other words, better and timely use of repurposed drugs could have reduced the hospitalization and death burden due to COVID-19. However a series of decisions made by vested interests and medical bureaucracy in western countries conspired to stop such attempts, as they saw these attempts as a challenge to their power and ability to make money. Consequently, many people who could have recovered uneventfully or survived were hospitalized or are dead.

Clip #1: Censorship of medical information and intellectual authoritarianism

Clip #2: Ivermectin will not be allowed to be an effective treatment

What do you think? Comments?

‘Lab Leak’ Theory for COVID-19 Was Always the Most Realistic One

June 6, 2021 13 comments

Over a year ago, I wrote a post about how COVID-19 was most likely the result of a ‘gain of function’ research. In that post, I referenced an article which made a very good and verifiable case that COVID-19 (also known as SARS-2 at that time) had multiple features which were almost certainly the result of human manipulation. At that time, such talk was considered to be “conspiracy theory” and “disinformation”. Well.. after 500k (maybe 400k?) deaths in USA and Biden’s election to presidency a few months ago, it seems that this theory for COVID-19 origin has suddenly become respectable in “mainstream media”. Very tellingly, over the past year the majority of americans kept believing that COVID-19 was the product of manipulation in a lab rather than direct transmission from some wild animal such as a bat.

To be clear, the main progenitor virus for COVID-19 was almost certainly a bat coronavirus. It’s secondary (and minor) parent was also almost certainly a pangolin coronavirus. However it is very clear, based on a number of features of COVID-19, that the recombinant progeny of these two wild coronaviruses was not the result of a natural event outside the lab. While these features have been mentioned in a number of articles (such as link 1 and link 2). While I could certainly write a longer post detailing the many ways that some of the most relevant features of COVID-19 are far more likely to have arisen as a result of lab manipulation than natural selection, it is best done as a separate post. The very short version is that the combination of features of COVID-19 which underlie its high infectivity in humans are simply too numerous to have arisen naturally in such a short timespan.

Moreover, we still haven’t found a very similar virus in either bats or another animal. Contrast this state of affairs to what happened with SARS in 2003, where they were able to identify the intermediate animal host within 6 months (and original host within a couple of years). Also, the amount of resources spent on that search was a tiny fraction of those devoted to finding their equivalents for COVID-19. To make matters worse, a bunch of FOIA-ed emails from Faucci show that many “experts” who dismissed the lab leak theory actively considered and discussed it at the same time they were issuing denials and writing articles to “debunk” it. We also know that many officials in american medical research bureaucracy wanted to suppress any talk of lab leaks since it would jeopardize their own funding for ‘Gain of Function’ research in viruses. In fact, it is very likely that american collaborations with the Wuhan Institute occurred because regulations in USA made it hard to do such research in this country.

Which brings us to how most of the concrete evidence for an artificial origin for COVID-19 was uncovered by so-called “amateurs” rather that “credentialed experts“. Ever wonder whether these so-called “professional experts” were just incompetent or malicious? I think that it is a combination of the two. While certain “certain experts” such as Peter Daszak, Ralph Baric and Anthony Fauci actively tried to discredit the lab leak theory inspite of clearly understanding (at a very early date) that the virus was most likely the product of ‘Gain of Function’ research, many others were likely too stupid to understand their own incompetence and therefore went along with whatever groupthink was fashionable at that time. And this isn’t surprising, since modern academics selects for submissive, uncreative and borderline incompetent people with strong conformist tendencies. There is a reason why scientific progress in West has largely stagnated for past two to three decades.

So where does all of this lead to? Well.. for starters many “mainstream media” outlets have been trying to stealth-edit all of their previous articles in which they dismissed the ‘lab leak’ theory as “conspiracy” and “disinformation”. Of course, they are getting caught doing so. But this raises an even bigger question- what else they have been promoting over past year has been a lie? After all, these are the same people who tried to convince the american public that Bin Laden had a ‘Dr. Evil’ type headquarters in some mountain in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein had WMDs. Consider this.. Fauci’s emails clearly show that he himself never believed that COVID-19 could be stopped by cloth or surgical face masks. However, as we all know, he kept aggressively promoting such face masks until the past 2-3 weeks. And yes.. there have been multiple studies which show that normal face masks have no worthwhile effect on the transmission of other respiratory viruses.

In my opinion, the much bigger question is how the final public acceptance of COVID-19 being created by ‘Gain of Function’ research will shape their willingness to fund such research, or even anything vaguely similar to it, in the future. Think about how the Three Miles Island and Chernobyl accidents shaped public attitudes towards nuclear power generation. And let us honest about something else.. lab accidents which accidentally released pathogenic microbes resulting in human diseases, deaths and animal epidemics are not unknown. So something like the lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) leak was inevitable. In fact, I am surprised that a massive fuck-up involving generically-engineered pathogens did not happen sooner. Might write another post on this topic based on reader responses and more relevant information in the very near future.

What do you think? Comments?

How India Managed to Botch its Response to Second COVID-19 Wave

May 28, 2021 14 comments

A few weeks ago, you might have heard endless articles about the COVID-19 situation in India was horrible and “medical system had collapsed”. At that time, I wrote a post about almost nothing you read or heard from English Language Media (ELM) in India or Main-Stream Media (MSM) in West was factual or reflective of ground reality. Readers might be interested to know that, since then, the situation in most parts of India has improved quite considerably. As I had predicted, oxygen shortages have pretty much disappeared and availability of other important medications has also improved. However it is also very clear that the Indian government (at all levels- from central down to local) did botch its response to the second wave of COVID-19.

So.. let us now talk about why they botched it up so badly and also why their screw-ups did not ultimately hurt the national response to the second wave- starting with the later.

1] The biggest reason why multiple iterations of incompetent governments and bureaucracy have not been able to destroy India comes down to the fact that vast majority of people in that country simply ignore or bypass whatever brain-dead plans, rules and regulations those two groups come up with. While some white-worshiping brown morons in West might see that as “wrong” or “corrupt”, the simple reality is that ignoring or actively flouting bad, stupid or actively dangerous rules and regulations is a sign of intelligence. It also tells you that the elite in India, unlike their Chinese counterparts, have no interest in the betterment of people living in that country. Oh ya.. they also have little to no contact with reality.

2] Which brings us the first way in which the Indian government and bureaucracy screwed up their response to second wave- namely, by ignoring the input of their medical professionals. As I mentioned in one or two of my previous posts on this topic, it was common knowledge (based on large serological surveys) that the first wave of COVID-19 in India had exposed about 20-25% of the population to that virus. That translates into 75-80% still having no exposure to COVID-19. In other words, a larger second wave was inevitable. It was really a question of when, not if, that would occur.

3] Based on how things went during the first wave , it was also clear that shortages of oxygen for treating hospitalized (but non-ICU) would be an issue during a second wave- especially in smaller cities where such medical facilities are often less than adequate. It was also known that the richer segments of urban India and much of rural India had largely escaped infection during first wave. The point I am trying to make is that any non-retarded person could have correctly figured out where and how hard the second wave would strike. But the government (at all levels) and bureaucracy simply ignored the likely consequences of data produced by their own professionals- perhaps, because they had the ‘wrong’ skin color.

4] Instead they listened to white people from the West who had “credentials” from “famous universities”. They did so in spite of the fact that these same white “experts” had been unable to control COVID-19 in their own countries. They did so despite the very obvious fact that all the NPI measures (social distancing, face masks, lockdowns etc) had not worked in western countries. The Indian system (political leadership and bureaucracy) kept pushing for drugs of dubious efficacy such as Remdesivir while often ignoring ones such as Ivermectin that seem to reduce hospitalizations in high-risk groups. Nor did they seriously explore other drugs such as Doxycycline, Colchicine or Indomethacin. Luckily, most Indians ignored their government.

5] The Indian political leadershit (at all levels) ignored the negative consequences of (even partial) lockdowns in a country with so many people dependent on day-to-day jobs for survival. They made no serious attempts to adequately compensate poor people for the loss of income from these stupid partial lockdowns. They ignored the way cities and towns in India are laid out and how and how that makes the bullshit scam of ‘social distancing’ impossible. They ignored the fact that outdoor transmission of that virus is far less frequent than indoor transmission. They pretended that non-specialized face masks were effective at blocking transmission. Luckily, once again, most Indians ignored their government.

6] The Indian government (at all levels) and bureaucracy ignored the reality of how many medical facilities and personnel they had. That is why they made a series of brain-dead decisions such as using hospital beds to treat people who required supplemental oxygen but were otherwise likely to recover. It would have been far easier to give such patients a couple of oxygen cylinders + medicines + oximeters and send them home or to some nearby non-hospital facility so that the hospital beds could be used for those who really needed specialized medical attention. You know.. basic triage. This would have prevented hospitals in small cities and large towns from being temporarily overwhelmed.

7] The government and bureaucracy also did nothing to give people a real picture of their relative risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. This is especially relevant in India, where the median age of population is lower than the West. As you know, the risk of death or even hospitalization from that illness is much lower in people under 50-60 than in those above 70-80. The vast majority of population in India is below 50 and not especially obese. For this group the risk of death is less than 1 in a few thousand. For those under 20, the risk of death is even lower- approaching 1 in 100k. However the Indian government (at all levels) never systematically explained this to people or used it to formulate policies. Instead they imitated the West and pretended that the virus was also dangerous to younger age-groups.

In summary, the Indian government ( at all levels) and bureaucracy fucked up at multiple levels making something that was almost inevitable much worse than it should have been. Luckily, the virus has spread far enough in India to start running out of new hosts- which is why the number cases in many parts of that country has fallen by over 50% in past three weeks. In summary, almost all bad decisions made by Indian government and bureaucracy were due to deliberately ignoring their own professionals and data while blindly imitating mistakes of western countries + no willingness to honestly consider the real-life infrastructure constraints and logistical issues inherent to implementing their decisions.

What do you think? Comments?

Preliminary Thoughts on the Current COVID-19 Situation in India

May 1, 2021 17 comments

Many readers might have recently heard something along the lines of how “the second wave of COVID-19 in India has caused the healthcare system in that country to collapse” or some other example of wishful thinking by aging western ‘liberal’ whites trying to desperately get a hardon by lapping up any news about possible mass death of non-whites in “those” countries. Of course, aging and demographically doomed white liberals lack the balls to say that it out aloud. With that in mind, let me help you understand about how things actually work in India and why western media is always especially misinformed about news from countries outside their own. What I am going to write here also applies to how western media reports on many other Asian countries, including China (even in 2021).

1] You might have noticed that almost every single source quoted by western MSM when reporting about India is either a English language media outlet or a journalist who works in those outlets. But why is this relevant? To understand what I am talking about, let us revisit a bit of history. The first generation of elites in post-independence India were almost exclusively educated in pre-independence missionary run schools, went to British universities and were uncritical worshipers of anybody who had a lighter skin color than them. In other words, they had a massive racial-inferiority complex. So how did they compensate for their shitty self-image? Well.. by constantly criticizing and belittling other Indians in the hope of gaining a few crumbs of approval from white people- typical massey sahib behavior.

The English language media in India was an extension of this pathetic belief system, with other self-hating and missionary-educated Indians being its main audience. Western news outlets were, at best, a distant second. Notably, they had no interest in engaging the vast majority of Indians- even those who are were literate in English. In the first two (or three) decades after independence, this bunch of missionary-educated self-hating media types had some real power, but by the 1980s- they had lost almost all of it. Their unwillingness to change the way the saw the world also ensured that neither Indians educated in secular English schools or those who predominately used Indian languages would see them as anything but sadly comic white ass-kissers.

But what is the relevance of this explanation to the topic of post? Well.. as it turn out, after 1991 these news outlets and journalists found a much-reduced second life as publishers of western propaganda and interfering in local politics by coordinating with western NGOs. Of course, they had no real influence on the vast majority (over 97%) of Indians- including those in power, but it didn’t matter as they were increasingly financed from.. external sources. In the context of COVID-19 pandemic, these “news” outlets have done nothing but belittling and berating Indians while exaggerating the toll of illness in that country. This might not be obvious to most of you, since you cannot compare how news about the same incident is presented in Indian English-Language Media (ELM) vs outlets in local languages. But I can!

2] Consequently a lot of what is presented by Indian ELM about news stories in that country is exaggerated and (increasingly) bullshit or outright lies. Did you know, for example, that they were also pushing the idea that casualties were 10-100x higher than official numbers during first wave? Turns out, they were not- but these “news” outlets never apologized for their persistent “mistakes”. So how high were the ‘real’ causalities compared to official numbers during first COVID-19 wave in India. The best guesses, made from talking to a lot of people + going through local language media, suggest a number about 1.5x (50%) higher than the official estimates. But more importantly, the first wave left about 20% of India (over 50% in major cities) immune to that virus. And yes.. those figures are based on multiple serological studies performed at the beginning of this year.

About 150-200k people died in exchange for 250-300 million infections. The mathematically inclined among you might have noticed that this translates into a death rate of a bit less than 1 in 1,000. Which brings us to the ongoing second wave. While the first wave affected mostly poor people living in slums, chawls and crowded apartments in big and medium sized cities, this one is affecting the more well-off in cities as well as smaller towns and everyone in rest of country. So how will it play out? Well.. we know that poor people in India (even the elderly) have an unusually low risk of developing serious complications or dying from COVID-19. I expect that trend to continue. The urban middle-class and upper-middle class are a different story. Too many in this demographic have obesity and diabetes from eating high-carb food (among other reasons).

I therefore expect more excess mortality among this group (per capita) compared to, say, poor people who perform physical labor for a living. However this group accounts for a small percentage of the population on that country. Moreover, we already know that the second wave, though more intense than the first one, seems to be a significantly shorter duration. FYI- this conclusion is based on how the second wave is playing out in the most affected state aka Maharashtra- where its has already peaked. If you still want predictions about final death numbers, I am guessing that it will be about 500-600k (same as USA but in a country with over 4 times more people). I also predict that this will occur before even 50% of population is vaccinated. It is an unfortunate loss of life, but totally acceptable for vast majority of people in that country. Very few are going to miss that 1 in 2,000 or even 1 in 1,000 person (urban areas) who passed away due to COVID-19- especially if he or she was old.

3] Now let us talk about all that hyperbole about the “medical system in India collapsing due to COVID-19”. First of all, India does not have a medical system as people in west (including USA) understand that concept. There is basically zero centralized coordination of patient history, standards of treatment or even payment. The medical system in that country is really hundreds of thousands of small clinics, large clinics and hospitals of varying sizes and resources offering medical care according to the ability of patients to pay for them. Of course, you can still get excellent medical care if you have even a half-decent amount of money. But back to all that bullshit talk about the “system collapsing”.. see, there isn’t a system to collapse, just smaller and bigger nodes which will be temporarily overwhelmed.

To be clear, I am not saying that certain hospitals in some Indian cities are not overwhelmed at this moment- but you know what, they will get back to normal- either when enough sick patients die or they find new resources to take care of patients- likely both. This might sound heartless- but let us be real about something.. most governments in that country (federal and state level) have never displayed any real interest in properly funding essential public utilities such as clean drinking water, proper sewage treatment, electricity production and distribution, decent schools or enough hospitals and clinics. So don’t blame me for pointing out the logical consequences of consistently bad decisions made by elected governments over many decades in that country. It is what it is..

Now let us talk about availability of Oxygen. As it turns out, India makes a lot of liquid and compressed oxygen for industrial purposes. While the big plants for extracting it from air are concentrated in certain parts of country, moving the product to other parts by rail or road is trivial. Also, hospitals usually consume only about 1-2% of total industrial oxygen production in India. In other words, the current shortage of oxygen in some cities has everything to do with bad logistics, price gouging and poor decision-making by purchase departments in hospitals. I expect this problem to sort itself out in next 2-3 weeks. But there is one more thing I want to talk about..

While all of this is going on, the vast majority of people in that country (over 95%) don’t really care about COVID-19- because they know it is fairly harmless for them. They have much more pressing issues in their lives than a disease than almost exclusively kills a few old or fat people. They have survived far worse and have a very different view on relative risks than some aging baby boomer in an affluent west coast suburb.

What do you think? Comments?

Public Health “Experts” Have Fucked up Official COVID-19 Messaging

February 23, 2021 15 comments

As many of you have realized by now, the official messaging about (and recommendations by) COVID-19 by most public health “experts” has been incredibly bad- and it would still be a big understatement. While some of you might think that their disastrously bad messaging and policies will only cause short-term damage to public trust in medicine, I think otherwise. As you will see in rest of this post, many of the incredibly stupid recommendations and policies which are vociferously promoted by most public health “experts” are going to have some truly awful long-term consequences. Here is just a preliminary list..

1] I am sure that in the past few weeks, most of you have read many articles quoting public health “experts”, including leaky faucet, repeating the same bullshit- namely, that widespread vaccination won’t change their policy recommendations about ineffectual face-mask wearing, useless “social distancing” or other stuff such as reopening schools or public gatherings and events such as indoor restaurants, drinking establishments, music concerts, sporting events etc. And this raises an important question- what is the motivation for most people under 50 to get vaccinated (especially with untested mRNA-based vaccines) if nothing is going to change in the foreseeable future. It is is now common knowledge that COVID-19 infection in people under 50 has an extremely low mortality rate (about 1 in a few thousand).

To make matters worse, this position makes people wonder if other vaccines are effective. By claiming that COVID-19 vaccines are not effective enough to let western societies go back to the way they were before March 2020, these dumbfucks are providing an amazing amount of free ammunition for anti-vaxxers. Think about it.. if the vaccines that are claimed to be 95% effective (which they are not) cannot stop the spread of an infection to the satisfaction of these morons, what is the point of taking any other vaccine? I predict that we will see a huge increase in public skepticism towards vaccination, in general, in aftermath of this pandemic. It does not help that many diseases controlled by widespread childhood vaccination such as measles, chickenpox, rubella, mumps etc are quite rare nowadays and not dangerous to well-nourished children who are under 12 and living in developed countries.

2] Now let us talk about the side-effect profile of vaccines- specifically those based on mRNA (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna). As I have written in previous posts, the 2nd dose of both vaccines causes moderately severe side-effects resembling influenza which last 2-3 days in about 20-30% of those who take it. While this side-effect profile is acceptable in those above 70, it is not clear how most people under 50 (who are not brainwashed or addicted to virtue display) will accept vaccines if it causes a more severe illness in a higher percentage of them than the infection itself. And it keeps on getting interesting..

Not content to pretend that vaccines won’t change their ineffectual and moronic policies, the idiots have also spend a lot of time pretending that COVID-19 vaccines (specifically mRNA based) are free of serious side-effects. However even a cursory look at data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) of USA and Europe says otherwise. While the rates of vaccine-related death in older people is probably somewhere between 1 in few thousand, it is real and about 100x the rate for other common vaccines such as those for Influenza. They also demonstrate a noticeable tendency to cause otherwise rare side-effects such as idiopathic thrombocytopenia and 3rd trimester miscarriage in otherwise healthy pregnant women. Reports of moderate side effects such as disturbed menstruation patterns, pronged swollen axillary lymph nodes, transient peripheral neuropathy etc are far more common.

3] All this talk about vaccines brings us the issues of “mutants” or “new strains” of COVID-19 whose detection is breathlessly reported every day by the MSM. The morons aka public health “experts” want you to believe that these are unprecedented and will somehow render existing vaccines useless. Of course, as before these idiots betray their lack of understanding of viruses and the human immune system. So let me restate the obvious- the genetic material in all viruses, and living creatures in general, constantly mutates. While this process is slower in significantly faster in RNA-based viruses such as Coronaviruses than organisms which use DNA to store their genetic information (like human beings), it occurs nonetheless.

But here is the funny thing.. Coronaviruses have among the smallest rate of mutations for any major family of RNA viruses. Nor as they have segmented genomes capable of large-scale recombination like Influenza viruses. But what does any of this mean? Well.. for starters, the immune system of all vertebrates has evolved a number of tricks to deal with very similar viruses. These range from producing a mixture of antibodies to a single viral antigen which bind at overlapping sites to immune cell activation directed at multiple overlapping sequences (epitopes) from that antigen. Did I mention that all viruses contain more than one type of antigen.This is why it is possible to develop efficacious vaccines against RNA viruses such as those which cause Polio, Yellow Fever, Measles and many others even though they are more prone to mutations than COVID-19. But you won’t hear this from public health “experts”.

4] We should also talk about how the COVID-19 response has polarized people by politics and ideology. It is no secret that what people believe about the validity of official response to this pandemic is highly dependent on their political leanings and ideology. Currently promoted public health measures seem to have no effect on cumulative rates of hospitalization and death due to COVID-19. If you don’t believe me, just compare Florida with California or Sweden and UK. To make matters more interesting, countries in East, South-East, South Asia and Africa have far lower (20-100 times) rates of hospitalization and death than what one might predict based on their population characteristics. And yes.. this effect is very obvious even after aggressively adjusting for age structure of their populations.

So what is going on? If you asked me.. I would say that those populations very likely have partial cross-immunity (mostly cell-based) from previous infections by other Coronaviruses. And let us clear about something, in countries such as India more than 50% of the urban population now exhibit serological evidence of previous infection by COVID-19 compared to rates of a few percent about 5-6 months ago. The point I am trying to make is all of the much vaunted and promoted public health measures have no worthwhile effect on the spread of COVID-19. But try telling any of this to the credentialed losers and “expert”-worshipers. You know.. the same types of people who have made a secular cult out of mindlessly repeating the rancid farts emanating from the mouths of all these ineffectual “experts”.

It is this cult of worshiping morons that is being everything from their resistance to reopening schools and universities, restaurants and bars etc. These are also the same idiots who pretend that international travel is dangerous in spite of western countries being the most heavily infected in world. We are already seeing a significant minority of this group defecting to the pro-open/normalization side because they are now being personally inconvenienced. Expect a severe electoral backlash against those seen as supporting ineffectual but highly damaging lockdowns and expert-worshipers (aka Democrats) in 2022 and likely 2024.

What do you think? Comments?

Long-Term Effects of Mismanaging COVID-19 Pandemic in West : 1

February 11, 2021 25 comments

As some of you might recall, I have written multiple posts (such as link 1, link 2) on the short-term effects of western countries mismanaging the COVID-19 pandemic. It is gratifying to see that many of my predictions have come to pass and the rest look inevitable with each passing day. You might have heard that most people in large countries such as India and Brazil have largely stopped using face-masks and “social distancing” for past few months now and life in those countries has pretty much gone back to normal- at least for the majority whose sense of self doesn’t depend on need from approval by old white people. The same is true for almost every country in Africa and most of South-East and South Asia. Rest of world has seen that virus was nowhere as bad as incompetent “credentialed” old white people were pretending.

This is not to say that the virus is harmless, but something as bad as 1957 and 1968 Influenza pandemics is not something worth closing your economy over- doubly so if there is no clear exit strategy. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, still ongoing and politically-motivated school closings in many american states have already pissed off a significant percentage of their populations. You can also be very sure that the ill-will generated by these stupid stunts (along with revenue shortfalls) will have some nasty medium-term consequences for future funding of K-12 education in this country. Same is true for any future business or employment prospects for post-secondary educational institutions- especially in Anglo countries.

It goes without saying that the incompetent and “credentialed” leadershit + bureaucracy of these countries is going about their lives as if their stupid actions aren’t going to bite them in the ass later. You might have seen the sad farce of ‘Impeachment 2’ being played out in the capital of this nation, while the urgent needs of tens of millions for monetary compensation and assistance are ignored and belittled. And guess what.. Trump won’t be impeached by the necessary 2/3rd majority of Senate, once again. Then again, it has clear for over the past two decades that american political system has lost whatever touch it once had it with the lives of the majority. I am sure that all of this will end well for everyone concerned *sarcasm*.

So let us move to the longer-term effects of mismanaging the COVID-19 pandemic by most western countries, but especially USA. As you will see, there are going to be some major and somewhat unexpected consequences of all the shit that has gone down over past year.

1] Many of you might have noticed that a lot of the bad, stupid and disastrous decisions were driven by mathematical models of infection spread and mortality. While such models have historically been useless and a complete shitshow, this was the first time that many people believed in the worthless predictions of these incomplete and unrealistic models. You might remember that many prominent epidemiologists (especially from UK) claiming that Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19 was 3-13%, when in reality it is close to zero (less than 1 in 1,000 for age-groups younger than 70. You might also remember these same dumbfucks claiming that COVID-19 would kill tens of millions in the ‘global south’ while those regions turned out to be the most resistant to death from that infection. FYI, the population-wide IFR is closer to 0.2 or 0.3, even in aging developed countries.

Turns out that many average people have also noticed the almost total lack of connection of these models and their predictions to real-world outcomes. Now think of another popular type of models used to predict changes in reality. Yes, I am talking about “anthropogenic climate change” models. You can bet a lot of money that the utter failure of mathematical models from “prestigious institutions” peopled by “credential experts” to predict the real world course of COVID-19 pandemic will have massive effects of the willingness of people to believe in the predictions made by priests of that other secular religion aka environmentalism. This will be doubly so because implementing the suggestions made by the first set of morons has been so disastrous for the lives of majority. Expect a large increase in the number of people who will question the secular religion of ‘anthropogenic climate change’ and support for parties and leaders who don’t care about all that bullshit.

2] It goes without saying that the public-facing and administrative part of medical profession has not risen up to the occasion. From their unwillingess to even entertain the possibility that COVID-19 virus was an accidental leak from a Chinese research lab to their constant abrupt changes on issues ranging from the efficacy of face-masks to various therapeutic modalities for treating the infection and its complications- it is fair to say to say that the profession (especially its public-facing administrative side) has clearly demonstrated their deficiencies in the very topics they they claim expertise. And people have, once again, noticed this lack of competence. To make matters worse, many administrative types from this profession have facilitated the poor and disastrous decisions taken by political leaders and bureaucrats. These include pretending that all hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients when such occurrences were rare and no more common than in a bad influenza season.

To make matters worse, they have provided legitimacy to some of the worst decisions made during this pandemic- from closing small business, restaurants etc while letting large ones remain open to supporting the ill-advised school closures in many states run by democratic party. It does not help that many have actively obstructed or ignored trials of drugs which reduce mortality and morbidity from that disease. Their mindless promotion of mRNA vaccines for mass use in populations who are not at high risk of death from COVID-19, despite a rapidly increasing incidence of serious and deadly side-effects in addition to their less that stellar efficacy is unlikely to help their public image. While the degree of trust in medical profession has been on the decline for at least two decades, it is almost guaranteed that their bungling of the response to COVID-19 is going to accelerate that trend.

But it will be worse, as they are also the public face for another class of very bad decisions. Have you wondered how many people in nursing homes and assisted living facilities died alone and lonely of causes other than COVID-19 over past year? This is important because over 50% of those who enter such facilities don’t survive for over two years. Do you see what I am saying? And then there is the issue of all those who died of suicide, drug overdoses and late diagnosis of otherwise treatable conditions. In many countries, the number of under-50s who have died of suicides and overdoses is many times the number who have died from COVID-19. And let us be realistic, 80-somethings in nursing homes and assisted living don’t have much longer left on this earth unlike those under 50. If you think that all of this is not going to have any effect on their already worsening public image.. I have a bridge to sell. And yes.. there will be consequences, especially in this bad economy and widespread despair.

In the next part, I will go into how the liberal and leftist calls for even severe restrictions and shutdowns will doom them to political irrelevance in the foreseeable future. Will also go into how the role of internet monopolies in attempting to squash any dissenters who don’t profess faith in the “official truth” will have some incredibly bad and long-term consequences for the former’s future. 2021 might prove to be interesting than 2020.

What do you think? Comments?

Damage Due to COVID-19 Restrictions Will Cause a Huge Backlash- 2

December 26, 2020 10 comments

In previous part of this series, I wrote about how the hugely botched response to COVID-19 pandemic by Western governments and public health “experts” is almost certain to cause an unimaginably large backlash in 2021. What makes this incredibly incompetent response even more remarkable is that things have gotten worse with every passing month. Don’t believe me? Well.. have a look at the late Autumn spike in “diagnosed” cases which occurred all over the western world irrespective of whether the leader of that country was Trump or somebody else. At the time of writing this post, the per capita incidence in almost every West-european country (at peak) is either close to, or more than, USA. In fact, the rates in many supposedly “responsible” countries such as Germany have now surpassed USA.

But why does this matter and what is it’s connection to the topic of this post? As some of you might remember, a lot of the public health measures floated by “experts” and enthusiastically promoted by politicians, main stream media and social media monopolies were supposed to prevent this exact outcome. Except that they did nothing of that sort! Feel free to compare the per capita incidence of PCR-positive cases in states that have implemented tons of society- and business- killing restrictions to neighboring states which didn’t implement them. It is as if all this bullshit about everybody wearing masks in public places, not re-opening schools and universities, closing restaurants and other small businesses or all that social-distancing lies had zero effect on the autumn rise in number of positive tests. In other words, all of that personal sacrifice (performed by those ‘little’ people) was in vain.

Do you really think that most people haven’t noticed that all of their largely uncompensated personal sacrifice had zero effect on the autumn wave of this disease? Maybe.. some losers with sinecured or otherwise stable jobs don’t mind the disruption to their lives, but a much larger percentage and number of people are now both very angry and in dire poverty due to those disruptions. Needless to say, they will find scapegoats among politicians, public health “experts”, MSM cocksuckers and SJWs in social media companies. But their hunt won’t stop with these obvious targets. It is no secret that many other sections of Western society have beclowned themselves during the botched response to this pandemic. Let us start by talking about how schools and universities have handled themselves.

1] As some of you might now, the death rate for COVID-19 infection in those younger than 25 is less than 1, in 10,000 and if you eliminate deaths in those who were already quite ill, it is likely less than 1 in 100,000. In spite of these figures being very consistent across many states and countries for past few months, a large percentage of schools in USA are still closed for in-person learning. While we can go into the reasons behind the decision of many teaching unions to beclown themselves, which include offering token #resistance to Trump, it goes without saying that even a scenario where every person below 25 in USA gets COVID-19, the excess mortality would be in the few hundreds or low thousands. Moreover most of this mortality could be avoided by keeping those susceptible to severe outcomes (cancer survivors, severely ill kids) at home for a few months. But what about the teachers, you might say.

Well..for starters, most teachers in USA and many other Western countries are women and under 50 and also have a really low death rate from to this disease. To put it bluntly, it was perfectly possible to reopen schools and run them like normal by having the chronically ill children and teachers over 50 stay at home. Even a 100% infection rate among teachers and students would result in no more than a couple thousand extra deaths in USA. You might not like what I am saying, but it is hard to argue with my reasoning. However this is only a small part of why backlash against teachers and their unions will be especially severe in USA. The first major reason comes down to the fact that public schooling in West is glorified babysitting which allows both parents to work 9-to-5 jobs. Keeping schools closed hurts the working class far more than numerically much smaller upper-middle class.

To make matters worse, a large percentage of the working class sees teachers as pampered, overpaid, incompetent and elitist assholes who owe their cushy jobs to unions- something that is not possible for most people in USA. Let me remind you that most working class people had to keep working during the pandemic at same time when all these teachers were sitting on their collective behinds at home while still receiving full pay. I predict that the backlash will take form of voters supporting right-wing politicians who want to cut school funding- either directly or indirectly. And given the significant shortfall in tax revenues for local and state governments in aftermath of this crisis, this outcome is almost inevitable. And to be honest, most teachers deserve it for how they have handled themselves during this crisis.

2] If you thought that teachers and schools had shot themselves badly in the foot by refusing to reopen during COVID-19 pandemic or did so with bizarre pre-conditions, think again.. because universities have outdone them by a mile. But before we go there, let us talk about the single biggest difference between schools and universities in USA. See.. while the vast majority of schools are pre-paid for by taxes and therefore free to attend, obtaining a university degree requires the median student to spend many tens of thousands of dollars in fees- and we haven’t even started talking about living costs in certain coastal cities. Did I mention that you cannot discharge student loans during a bankruptcy? To make a long story short, attending university in USA is a very expensive proposition with very onerous loan repayment conditions. So why do students keep attending them?

While part of the reason comes down to societal and employer pressure to obtain a university degree of some sort, a far bigger reason (for many) is that university is a place to network for future job and career opportunities. Of course, you can’t do that unless you physically attend university. To make matters worse, the online learning experience is inferior for those old CD-ROM courses offered by distance learning for-profit universities offered in the late 1990s. Did I mention that vast majority of universities have not reduced their fees since going online? To make another long story short, universities have decided to throw their student body (aka customers in USA) under the proverbial bus without considering long term consequences of such actions. Given the conditions and factors mentioned earlier in this paragraph, the medium- to long- term effect on their reputation and ability to attract paying customers (I mean.. students) is unlikely to be positive.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, universities in USA have largely gone through the large increase in student population between late-1990s and early- to mid-2010s caused by a wave of baby-boomer children. There just aren’t that many future local students for them in next decade, which is why so many of them are recruiting international students at record numbers since the early 2010s. These high-paying students (usually from China) have become an important source of income for many universities in past few years. It does not take a genius to figure out that shutting down physical university for a year is going to hurt ability of most universities to recruit rich overseas students. It does not help that many universities in this country are overloaded with useless administrative parasites and therefore barely getting by in spite of collecting record amounts of tuition from students.

Given the upcoming revenue shortfalls, I expect many of them to start cutting corners by laying of teaching staff rather than firing administrative types, thus entering a death spiral where loss of income leads to loss of reputation which leads to further loss of income. What makes this whole farce darkly comic is that the risk of death from COVID-19 among student aged people is also very low- less than 1 in 5,000 and most deaths occur in those with serious chronic conditions. I should also mention that majority of teaching duties in universities are already performed by junior teaching staff, contract and sessional instructors who are very likely to be under 50 and in good health. I mean.. we could just have had professors above 70 and those with serious chronic diseases stay at home for a few months.

In the next part of this series, I hope to go into the effects of these shutdowns and restictions on small and medium business who employ far more people than their revenues might suggest.

What do you think? Comments?

Damage Due to COVID-19 Restrictions Will Cause a Huge Backlash- 1

December 19, 2020 20 comments

For the past few weeks, I have been considering writing a post (or two) listing my predictions for 2021. Since I have some spare time right now, let me start by making an obvious series of predictions about the upcoming year. And yes.. I have tackled this topic in a previous series and other older posts. I have also written about the ineffectiveness of conventional face masks and likely issues with widespread use of any potential vaccine. Thus far, every aspect of the response in western countries to COVID-19 from damaging widespread lockdowns that have no worthwhile effects on caseloads, ineffectual facemasks policies, hamhanded and delusional vaccination policies are creating a lot of fuel for huge public backlashes in 2021.

1] The most important determinant of long-term public support for all governmental policies concerning any war, restrictions or other deprivations comes down to the simple question- how much does it inconvenience or hurt the median person? Let me remind you that american public support for Vietnam war was very high in the beginning, but declined sharply once conscription became widespread and increasing number of recruits came back in body bags or as cripples. Similarly, the Iraq War was popular towards in the beginning when many stupid muricans believed they could win it at very little personal cost. Once it became obvious that the war was creating an endless stream of brain-damaged and crippled veterans, it became far less popular. The inability to move freely in Iraq years after that failed occupation, due to multiple ongoing insurgencies, did not help its popularity either.

So how does this knowledge help us predict the now inevitable backlash against botched response to COVID-19 by western countries, especially USA. For starters, we now have tons of data from both adjacent countries and states that brain-dead measures such as lockdowns, public making, closing restaurants and other small business etc have almost no effect on the rise and fall of case numbers. While some of you might not have heard about this because of spending too much time watching CNN and MSNBC- it is now increasingly common knowledge that many measures such as public masking pushed by public health “scientists” and faceless bureaucrats are nothing more than public theater while others such as closing restaurants, small businesses and physical retail are actively harmful. In the first 2-3 months people went along with the bullshit because they were afraid of the unknown, but now too many know somebody who tested positive for COVID-19 and had an uneventful spontaneous recovery.

My point is that the number of people who know somebody who contracted COVID-19 and recovered without complications is many fold more than those who know somebody who died. And for good reason! Mortality due to that infection in the under-50 population is somewhere between 1 in 5,000- 10,000. In fact, it crosses the 1 in 1,000 figure only for people above 60 and healthy non-institutionalized old people between 70-80 have a mortality rate of about 2-3%. But why does this matter? Well.. to put it bluntly, western societies don’t care much about lives of very old and institutionalized. While they may pretend to care about such people to show others around them that they are “good people”, they cannot keep up the charade for long if it is causing them to lose lots of money. By continuously lying to people that COVID-19 is far more dangerous than it is, the public health establishment in West is is serious risk of losing any residual public credibility which it might still have.

Which brings us to the second set of reasons why things are going to go ballistic in many countries aka this shitshow has been going on for almost 9 months now.

2] As you know, most human beings are conformist cowards who will go along any stupid belief system for a short time. The real problems start once the ridiculous crap continues past a few months. At that point, people will start reevaluating their previous beliefs- especially if they think that those beliefs are causing them financial or other loss. This is why most people either don’t join cults or slowly drop out of them as things get more extreme. While west European countries have a significantly better social safety net than USA, even they cannot keep the economy going for more than a few months. Things are even worse in countries with more fragile service-based economies + low job and career security + almost non-existent social safety net such as USA. Note that the shutdowns and restrictions are causing far more unemployment and financial damage to people under 40 and 50 than those over 65-70.

The problem with public health “scientists” and politicians trying to push their ineffectual ideas about indefinite lockdowns is that in addition to exaggerating the threat of COVID-19 they have not adequately compensated the people whose businesses and livelihoods have been affected. Even European countries which have far more generous wage replacement schemes than USA have not been able to make up the income loss to affected workers, not to mention uncertainty about future of affected business. The simple fact is that there many times more people who are being deliberately pushed into poverty by lying and incompetent governments in Western countries than there are people above 80. Things are even bleaker in USA where wage support is basically nonexistent for most laid-off and furloughed workers. Did I mention that most affected small businesses in USA are fucked.

To make matters worse, in almost every single Western country including USA the center-left part and its vocal minority PMC-class supporters are in favor of indefinite lockdowns without any hope or compensation. These sinecured assholes have lost all touch with the daily reality of a much larger group in their country. I predict, with complete certainty, that this will lead to the sort of backlash which will make Brexit vote and Trump’s election in 2016 look quaint. For example- the results of 2022 election in USA, barring some miracle or extreme incompetence by Republicans, will make the previous defeats suffered by Democratic party look comically small by comparison. I also predict similar electoral carnage for many other ruling parties in Western Europe in next two years- along with significant improvements in public support for right-wing parties. History might not repeat, but it often rhymes.

3] Many of you might have also heard that many social media companies and internet monopolies in the “free” West are trying to censor “unofficial” information about COVID-19, vaccine side-effects etc. I predict that such behavior by these corporations will have two main effects. Firstly, it will greatly increase public support behind those attempting to break up and regulate those corporations. But more importantly, it will amplify the very messages and distrust in “credentialed” authority which they are trying to suppress. If you don’t believe ask anybody for pre-1989 Eastern European countries if they believed official news about their own country. And yes.. it also feeds back into the anti-establishment dynamic which I talked about in the previous paragraph. The next two years will be most interesting.

The already moribund public health establishment in Western countries will be among the biggest loser in aftermath of this backlash. For starters, they have they lost any residual public goodwill during the past 9 months due to their inability to control COVID-19. But far worse was their poorly thought decisions (not based in scientific facts) which have caused massive damage to lives of thousands of times more people than those who died from COVID-19. Their pathetic attempts to pretend that COVID-19 vaccinations are safer than natural infection in younger age-groups is almost guaranteed to start some backlash in the next few weeks. Then again, public health in the past 40 years has been largely an exercise in bullshit mathematical models and SJW beliefs with no basis in reality. Will write about the effect of backlash on public perception of schools, universities, PMCs and politicians in upcoming part.

What do you think? Comments?

COVID-19 Pandemic has Exposed Intellectual Bankruptcy of Liberals

November 21, 2020 19 comments

In the previous post, I wrote about how the COVID-19 pandemic exposed many of the chronic problems and systemic dysfunctions in West for all to see. While writing that post, I started thinking about another one on how this pandemic also exposed the mind-boggling levels of intellectual bankruptcy among liberals. And yes, I wrote two very similarly titled posts a few months ago (link 1, link 2). As far as my ideological roots are concerned, those who have read enough of my older posts know that I despise ideologies of all flavors- from CONServatism to LIEbralism. Sure.. some are a bit worse than others, but not by much. While many of early posts were about the intellectual bankruptcy of CONservatism, it has became increasingly obvious to me that LIEbralism has gone from being a little better than CONservatism to significantly worse- especially in the past five years.

1] The first serious instance of how the pandemic exposed LIEbral idiocy came pretty early. You might have heard something about how tests for antibodies against COVID-19 show far more widespread infection than PCR- and LAMP- based tests. It was also well known, rather early on, that infection in younger age groups was largely asymptomatic. This would suggest that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for this virus was much lower than the high Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as measured before extensive testing was deployed. But LIEbrals would have nothing of that. These dumbfucks tried to discredit and suppress any evidence that it was far less dangerous than the equally intellectually bankrupt MSM was trying to push.

What makes this, however, especially interesting is the arguments used by LIEbrals in their attempts to discredit the results of antibody testing. One of their main arguments was that these antibody tests had very high false positive rates. Well.. any person who understands the science behind these tests and laboratory techniques will tell you that even the most poorly designed modern antibody tests have false positive rates below 2%. In fact, a false negative result is far more likely than a false positive for these tests. And yet there was no shortage of self-proclaimed experts on Twatter, FakeBook and MSM who claimed that these tests were “wrong”. It is as if LIEbrals had close to zero understanding of STEM subjects, which is not surprising as most of these losers credentialed in “liberal arts” at university.

And it gets worse. Once it became obvious that their lies about antibody test results were making them look like idiots, they started claimed that antibody titres were the only predictors of immunity to viral infections. But as anybody with a proper undergraduate-level education in Microbiology can tell you, immunity to viral infections has much more to do with memory B-lymphocyte, helper T-lymphocyte and Dendritic cells activated in response to infection than the persistence of antibody levels. That is why immunity to many viral infections can often last a lifetime. Now, it harder and significantly more expensive to measure these post-infection responses than a simple antibody test- but they are far more important for lasting immunity to a specific virus than antibody levels.

2] Let us move on to non-specialized face masks, a topic which I have touched on in another previous post (link 3). In case you haven’t heard, a recent large RCT Danish study of mask efficacy which many journals were initially unwilling to publish clearly shows that surgical-grade face masks have virtually no effect on rates of COVID-19 infection. And this is not surprising, since similar studies done on the efficacy of surgical masks at prevent Influenza infection (caused by a virus of roughly similar dimensions) in the past had yielded similar results. In other words, unless you are wearing N95 or better face masks, such measures are not effective at preventing infections. But liberal idiots continue defending this dubious talisman, once again demonstrating their ignorance of experimental science.

To make matters more interesting, these LIEbral idiots still haven’t explained why dense and crowded cities in Asia and some parts of Africa have only a tiny fraction of the COVID-19 deaths which many of these same racist idiots were happily anticipating. Isn’t it interesting that almost none of these LIEbral idiots are even considering the possibility that.. maybe.. people in some countries have partial cross-immunity to COVID-19 due to previous infection by other coronaviruses. Or why states with mask mandates don’t have lower rates of infection that neighboring ones with far fewer restrictions. Then again, liberals would rather stick their head up their behind than care about anything which contradicts their belief system.. you know.. like real life. Having said that, it is fun to watch them make up explanations which are rationally inconsistent with their previous ones, while pretending that they aren’t doing so.

These same idiots keep pushing worthless measures that sound effective such as “circuit breaker lockdowns” with no evidence that they do anything other than temporarily suppress case numbers a little. Why do you think that something which didn’t work in Italy, Spain, France and UK in the spring is going to work again? Because you want it to work? Seriously? Also why haven’t all those Asian countries which have very low case numbers and kept it in control done so without lockdowns? Also how long are you going to keep up this shit? How do you plan to compensate all those business owners who will be bankrupted by this ineffectual bullshit? What about all the people who have lost their jobs- in many cases, permanently? I would rather have excess mortality among the 80+ crowd in nursing homes than destroy the lives of many tens of millions more in the prime of their lives.

3] Let us now talk about all those measures to control COVID-19. Given that most outbreaks occur in places that are indoors, crowded and poorly ventilated- why are we pretending that normal outdoor and indoor activities are risky? Given that this virus is airborne, what is the whole point of “social distancing”? Given what we know about Vitamin D levels and severity of disease, wouldn’t giving Vitamin D supplements to dark-skinned and older people be a far better use of resources. And why not give the older and otherwise vulnerable people free N95 facemasks rather than pretending that ersatz cloth facemasks are equally effective? And we have not even touched on the issue of how mortality strongly correlates with advanced age and presence of multiple chronic disease conditions. But try telling any of this to a STEM-illiterate LIEbral retweeting make-believe bullshit on Twatter and FakeBook.

Since we are past a thousand words, I will wrap up this post here. Based on your feedback, I might write another post. Here is a parting question.. Do the governors and administrations in democrat-ruled cities and states have a realistic plan to cover their massive upcoming revenue and tax losses? Do they think Biden will be able to bail them out?

What do you think? Comments?

Response to COVID-19 Has Exposed Chronic Dysfunction in the West

November 14, 2020 23 comments

While I would love to finish a bunch of my drafts about topics ranging from how the computer revolution of past 20 years has been a failure to why the 1990s was the last good decade for people living in west, we seem to keep coming back to topics such as COVID-19 and Trump. So consider this post as another one in an already long list about the incredibly dysfunctional response by western countries to the COVID-19 pandemic. But how is this one different from the ones I posted over past few months? Well.. because it seems that systemic dysfunction exhibited by western countries has not improved, and in some cases, gotten worse.

1] Have you noticed that even after 8 months, western countries have still not shown the willingness or wherewithal to treat COVID-19 infections in high-risk patients with anti-viral and anti-inflammatory drugs? Let me explain a bit about what I am talking about. See.. based on results of many small and large clinical trials around the world, we know that treatment of COVID-19 patients at higher risk of hospitalization with certain drugs does reduces the risk of hospitalization, ICU usage and death. Furthermore, many of them such as Indomethacin, Doxycycline, Ambroxol or Bromhexine, low-dose Colchicine, Ivermectin are both readily available and fairly safe, especially for short-term use.

Yet no government in the West has even bothered to honestly find out if all the positive results seen in other parts of the world are reproducible. It is noteworthy than many of these reports come from more than one country and were often published at round the same time. There is definitely something going on with these compounds. Of course, these drugs would be most effective in high-risk patients who receive them within the first 3-4 days of symptomatic illness. But almost no large clinical trial in the West is even trying to assess their efficacy in reducing hospitalizations, ICU usage and death. It is as if the establishment in West has no interest in strategies which don’t involve them riding on their favorite hobby-horses.

2] Related to this shortcoming, is the inability or unwillingness to deploy orally available direct anti-viral drugs to treat COVID-19 in high-risk patients as early as possible. As mentioned in at least one previous post, a Remdesivir analog known as GS-441524 has the same degree of efficacy against Coronaviruses as it well-known chemical cousin in addition to being orally available and noticeably less toxic. So why isn’t nobody in West trying to find out if giving this drug (already tested in animals) early in course of disease reduces the risk of hospitalization etc in older patients? What about EIDD-2801, another even more potent and orally available anti-viral compound which has passed toxicity and efficacy tests in animals?

Do you see a trend? It is as if there is no systemic and coordinated effort in the West to treat COVID-19 before people end up in the hospital. The same is true for all those monoclonal antibody cocktails which would be far more useful if they were given to high-risk patients before they get sick enough to be hospitalized. I mean.. look at Trump.. he got the antibody cocktail and anti-viral drug at right time and hence recovered much faster than otherwise. Isn’t it interesting to note that the most aggressive use of medicines to stop high-risk patients from getting worse is occurring in countries such as India, Russia, Malaysia etc rather than the supposedly “advanced” West? What is going on?

3] And it gets worse. Have you noticed that western governments are still pretending that COVID-19 can be controlled or eliminated by a hastily thrown together bunch of measures such as “hard lockdowns”, ineffectual talismans such cloth masks, social distancing and then pretending that the continued rise in cases in spite of implementing these measures is due to poor “compliance” rather than they being close to useless. Have you also noticed that most western governments are pretending that COVID-19 infections in children and adolescents have a higher mortality than the common cold. Also, if you are interested in preventing high-risk teachers from getting infected, why not keep teachers over 50 or 60 at home and let the others go about their normal routine.

They are still pretending that the mortality rates for under-50s is more than 1 in a few thousand. Even the rates for under-60 crowd remain at somewhere between 1 in 500 to 1 in a thousand. Shouldn’t we be therefore devoting resources (such as N95 masks etc) to those at high risk of adverse outcomes such as those above 70 or 80 and in assisted living situations rather than fight the losing battle to stop COVID-19 infections in low-risk people. Hasn’t it become obvious by now, after 8 months, that eliminating COVID-19 from the population by such measures is a fool’s errand. Who are trying to impress with this seemingly unending list of failures?

4] But the crowning glory of their ineffectualness has been their profound inability to come up with a realistic plan to emerge from this self-inflicted crisis. Do you see any government in the West putting forth a realistic plan for dealing from the situation. And no.. ideas centered around daily ‘cheap’ tests for everybody and vaccinating everybody are not realistic as anybody who knows even a bit about error rates in testing and logistics of producing and distributing vaccines knows. Too make matters.. more interesting.. most vaccines being developed in the West are of types which have not been previously used in humans. Yes.. RNA-based vaccines such as those being developed by Pfizer and Moderna have not been previously used in human beings. Nor have those which use adenoviral vectors such as the ones from Astra-Zeneca, CanSino or the Sputnik V Russian vaccine. To put it another way, we are in totally uncharted waters with these vaccines.

I cannot help pointing out that inactivated virus vaccines against COVID-19 are perfectly feasible. Indeed, such vaccines have been used against Poliomyelitis, Hepatitis A, Rabies, Influenza vaccines etc for many decades. Yet for some odd reasons, there are only a few groups developing inactivated virus vaccines for COVID-19. What makes this even more odd is that such vaccines have been successfully tested and used for multiple types of Coronaviruses affecting animals. So why aren’t we using tried and tested methods for vaccine development, which are almost certain to work, in favor of sexy but unproven methods of achieving the same results. And yes.. I am aware that inactivated virus vaccines require boosters, but so do the others being currently tested for COVID-19. Also, what about vaccines based around protein subunits, such as the ‘spike’ protein, another well-known way of developing them.

Since we are already past a thousand words, I am not going to go into the hilarious stupidity and callousness displayed by western governments when it comes to issues such as helping save small businesses, jobs in the most affected sectors, running schools and universities into the ground and much more. Might write a followup part based on responses.

What do you think? Comments?

Quick Thoughts on Short-Term Effects of Trump Catching COVID-19

October 3, 2020 19 comments

As readers know, 2020 has been a most unusual year full of all sorts of surprises. Who could have foreseen the decision by establishment Democrats to close ranks behind a frail old man with senile dementia to run against the orange idiot? Of course, not all events are unexpected even if many of their consequences might be hard to foresee. Trump catching COVID-19 is an excellent example of something which was totally predictable but whose consequences are much harder to predict. I had expected him to catch it months ago, especially given his unwillingness to hide in the basement like Dementia Joe. So it was not surprising when Trump announced yesterday that he had tested positive for COVID-19. With that on mind, let us talk about potential consequences.

1] As many of you have heard, Trump has received an infusion (8g) of two monoclonal antibiotics (REGN-COV2) manufactured by Regeneron. While this drug is currently in clinical trials, there is enough evidence that it causes a significant reduction of virus levels in body fluids. Since Trump received this drug before progressing onto the later and more serious inflammatory symptoms, it will very likely benefit him. He is also receiving a 5 day course of Remdesivir (200mg on day 1 and 100 mg on day2-5). Once again, since he received it before progressing onto inflammatory symptoms, it will benefit him far more than those who receive it after being quite ill for a number of days. While this might not cheer up MikeCA, Trump is very likely to survive this illness and be back in the White House sometime next week- ready to berate Dementia Joe again.

2] While Joe Biden had a negative COVID-19 test yesterday, this is likely to change over next few days since there is usually a 3-6 day period between infection and producing enough viruses to be detected by PCR-based tests. Since it is almost certain that Trump was in asymptomatic, but potentially infectious, stage when he shared the stage with Biden at the first debate. It does not help that more than a few of Trump’s entourage at that debate were also infectious. Did I also mention that normal cloth masks cannot stop COVID-19. Unlike Trump whose is in otherwise OK health for a 74-year old man, Biden is a very frail 78-year old in early stages of senile dementia. To make a long story short, if Biden gets COVID-19 his prognosis will be far worse than Trump. Biden might end up where many liberals and progressives are praying for Trump to end up.

3] While many talking-heads on corporate news outlet and twitter pundits are trying to demean Trump by spreading rumors and demanding an ever increasing amount of personal information about his medical status, this strategy is likely to backfire since he is now increasingly an object of sympathy as he now has something in common with an increasing number of people in this country. Many still remember how all these MSM cocksuckers kept on hyping “scandal” after “scandal” for the past four years. It is like the boy who cried wolf.. after enough false calls, the person making them loses credibility. Long story short, it is not going to hurt his poll numbers and will likely increase them as well as embolden his more determined (and armed) supporters. And as mentioned above, Biden isn’t out of the COVID-19 woods yet.

4] The case for Trump being an incompetent moron who does not deserve re-election could have been far stronger IF Democrats had presented a significantly better economic vision of future, demonstrated ability to fulfill at least some of their previous promises and selected a presidential candidate who did not have senile dementia. Instead these paid losers have decided to focus on bullshit which only appeals to white upper-middle class types such as “respectability”, bullshit about the “green new deal”, gobblygook on “extending” Obamacare, talk about banning semi-automatic guns and other “woke” cultural bullshit that nobody who does not live in certain coastal zipcodes cares about. People such as MikeCA are partisan democrats because it is about social class rather than actual belief in anything he pretends to care about.

5] Let me now repeat something which needs to repeated as long as people such as MikeCA pretend to be appalled by Trump. The orange buffoon, you see, is the result of everything which has been going wrong in this country for past four decades.. and let us not pretend that this decision was not bipartisan. Trump, or someone similar to him, was as inevitable in our era as Hitler in post-1930 Germany or Mussolini in post-WW1 Italy. People in this country have stopped believing that politicians are anything but greedy, cynical, corrupt assholes who are increasingly disconnected from the people who vote them into power. Trying to portray Trump as “uniquely bad” because he does brazenly what other politicians do more surreptitiously is not a recipe for defeating Trump. Then again.. perhaps, Democrats don’t want to defeat Trump, since they are fake opposition paid by same people as Republicans.

In summary, based on everything we know to date, Trump is very unlikely to die or even suffer prolonged hospitalization due to COVID-19. The same cannot be said about Biden, especially in next few days. The attempts by MSM outlets and Twitter pundits to defame and enjoy Trump getting sick with COVID-19 is likely to backfire on them and Democrats.

What do you think? Comments?

COVID-19 Face Masks are Modern Day Talismans of Liberal Scientism

September 28, 2020 18 comments

As regular readers know, I have written many posts about the hilariously ineffectual and visibly incompetent response of western governments to the COVID-19 pandemic. Continuing in that general direction, let us talk about another stupid intervention cooked up by all the credentialed dummies advising morons occupying elected office in these allegedly developed countries. Yes.. I am talking about the enthusiasm displayed by many countries in recent months to make people wear face masks that are incapable of stopping viral transmission. But as you will soon see, my issues with making people wearing ordinary face masks are about much more than them being generally ineffective at preventing infection by airborne viruses.

So let us start by talking about the efficacy of various types of face masks at preventing viral infections. Long story short.. only masks rated N95 or higher have been shown to reduce the transmission of viruses. And there is a very good reason for why that is the case. It comes down to the maximum size of particles which can pass through them. N95 or better masks can reliably filter out particles that are in size range of common larger viruses. Your normal surgical mask or cloth face mask cannot stop particles in the size range of most bacteria and viruses. At best, they are effective at reducing formation of aerosols created by wearer when speaking or breathing.

Remember that surgeons wear surgical masks to reduce the chance of bacteria from their nose and mouth from ending up on open wounds or during procedures. All of this is another way of saying that normal cloth face masks and surgical masks are basically useless at filtering out particles in size range of respiratory viruses. Sure they might reduce the size of inoculum by trapping larger droplets and aerosols, but let us not pretend that they do much for viruses such as influenza, rhinoviruses or COVID-19. Now some of you might say.. “isn’t a bit of protection better than no protection?”. Well.. sure, but only as long as you are being honest about their limited effectiveness. Pretending they are far more effective than they are is malpractice.

So why are LIEbrals, especially those found on social media site such as Twitter, Reddit etc so enthusiastic about forcing people to wear ineffectual face masks? To understand this, you have first accept that LIEbrals are as stupid as their CONservative equivalents. They just happen to believe in different religions. See.. while CONservatives believe in traditional religion with all its trappings, LIEbrals believe in the church of Scientism. So instead of blindly believing in the word of priests in white garb, LIEbrals choose to blindly believe the words of “credentialed” dummies who represent the church of Scientism. It is about blind faith, not rational and critical belief.

The LIEbral obsession with making people wear ineffective facemasks is better understood when you understand what they represent to believers in the church of Scientism. To make another long story short, ineffective facemasks promoted by the priests of Scientism are best seen as Talismans. In case you don’t want to click on the link, a talisman is an object that someone believes holds magical properties that provide particular power, energy, and specific benefits to the possessor. Note that Talismans or ‘good luck charms’ have a long history of use in pre-modern medicine and the cynical might say, even modern medicine. Some of you might say.. “but what is the harm of letting people believe in such bullshit if it makes them feel better?” Don’t many people keep their own lucky shirts, coats, dresses, shoes, baseball caps etc?

Well.. here is why. If you promote something as a highly effective for prevention of COVID-19 infection, people might actually believe you in the beginning. But what happens after it becomes increasingly obvious that normal face masks are almost ineffective at preventing COVID-19 or Influenza? While devout believers in church of Scientism might continue to believe in ordinary face masks irrespective of evidence, others won’t be so ideologically invested. Another long story short.. the loss of credibility caused by failure of such face masks will blow back on those most involved in promoting them and destroy whatever residual credibility they might still command.

If you thought people weren’t believing in the pronouncements of attention-hungry losers such as Fauci etc and institutions such as CDC and FDA now, imagine how bad things could get once it becomes once it is obvious that these face masks don’t work. To reiterate, while N95 and better face masks work quite well, the cloth and surgical ones promoted by western governments barely work.. if at all. Pretending that they do won’t change reality.

What do you think? Comments?

On the Many Potential Real-Life Problems with Any COVID-19 Vaccine

July 23, 2020 26 comments

Most of you might have recently heard something about progress in the development of one (or more) of the many vaccines being developed for COVID-19. While I don’t want into a lot of detail about the types of vaccines being developed, two are getting most of the attention. One is the ‘RNA-based’ one such as those from (Moderna, Pfizer etc. The other type is adenovirus-based ones such as that Oxford-AZ and CanSino vaccine. Even with the initial results of these, and many more, vaccines- I predict that even the most successful vaccine will have to overcome tons of real-life problems. And I am not the only one to hold that opinion. Here is why..

1] RNA-based vaccines of the type developed by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech are problematic for more than one reason. Firstly, no RNA-based vaccine has yet been approved for human or animal use. Sure.. this is partly due to the reason that the technology, injecting encapsulated mRNA to make you own cells produce the antigen you want to stimulate an immune response against is fairly new technology. But there is a second reason- specifically, mRNA based vaccines are notorious for causing grade 3 and higher reactions in a small percentage of individuals. Though Moderna is trying its best to obscure the data, more than a few people in their relatively small phase I trial developed reactions serious enough to require prompt medical attention.

Why does this matter? Well.. let us consider how things will play out if they have a 5% incidence of such reactions during a mass vaccination drive against COVID-19. Imagine you vaccinate a million people and 5% of them develop such reactions. Even if they are can be easily treated in the hospital or a clinic, you have 50,000 fairly ill people who wouldn’t be there if they had not taken this vaccine. Also, if there are 50,000 people ill enough to require medical attention, you can bet a few of them will end up becoming much more ill or even dying. Let me remind you that the mortality due to COID-19 in people under 50 is less than 1 in 1,000. What are the chances that the vaccine kills and hospitalizes as many people as the infection in younger age groups?

This is not to say that vaccines with such high rates of side-effects are useless. The vaccine for smallpox and older versions of the rabies vaccine also had rather high rates of side effects. But there is the thing.. smallpox, when it existed, was a very contagious illness with 30% mortality rate. Rabies has a mortality of almost 100% once the infection has reached the central nervous system. Most people will be fine with a vaccine for smallpox or rabies that kills one in a few thousand people, because of the high fatality rates of those infections. The same cannot be said about COVID-19. To make matters more interesting, we don’t know if mRNA based vaccines are more likely to induce auto-immune diseases than other, more conventional, vaccines.

2] The other main type of COVID-19 vaccines use fairly harmless adenoviral vectors that express some proteins from the virus in question. In contrast to mRNA based vaccines, we have a decent amount of experience with such vaccines in both animals and humans trials. Also vaccines that use a similar strategy- where one fairly harmless virus expresses proteins of a far more harmful virus to induce immunity to later have been used to develop a few vaccines used in animals and at least one for humans (Ebola vaccine). We can, therefore, be a bit more certain that the safety of vaccines in this category is not as unknown as those mRNA-based vaccines. Also, the rate of complications for such viral-vector based vaccines is noticeably lower than mRNA vaccines.

The initial data from the Oxford-AZ vaccine trials also suggest that they do a much better job at stimulating immunity to the virus among CD4 and CD8 T-lymphocytes. It is known that immunity to Coronaviruses in animals is more cell-based than antibody based. In other words, the Oxford-AZ vaccine is likely to produce better immunity under real-life conditions with noticeably fewer side-effects than mRNA based vaccines. The CanSino vaccine, which uses a human adenoviral vector, seems to be a bit less effective than the Oxford-AZ vaccine which uses a chimpanzee adenoviral vector- perhaps, because of pre-existing immunity to human adenoviruses. Between mRNA and adenoviral-vector based vaccines, I would put my money on the later.

3] The next issue concerning COVID-19 vaccination comes down to the logistics of producing, distributing and actually giving the vaccine. Having the best vaccine means shit all if you cannot produce it on a large scale without breakdowns in quality control. Once again, the adenoviral-vector based vaccines are a bit better than mRNA-based ones in that regard, especially with existing infrastructure. Distributing the vaccine, even if effective will however pose quite a few problems. For starters, who do you vaccinate first- the groups most likely to die from infection or those most likely to transmit it? How do you vaccinate hundreds of millions in a very short time without a huge number of people ending up in hospitals due to side-effects, even if temporary.

And what are you going to do about all the people who would rather wait and see what happens to initial bunch of vaccine recipients? What if there is a large wave of hospitalizations from first widespread use of whichever COVID-19 vaccine ends up being approved. Remember even a 2% incidence of severe reactions is a large number once you are talking about millions of recipients. How will you convince people to keep getting vaccinated if initial use of COVID-19 vaccine causes tens of thousands of hospitalizations? This is especially likely for mRNA-based vaccine such as those being developed by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech. Then there are issues of efficacy. What if the approved vaccines prove to be only 80-90% effective. While this is a perfectly acceptable for many existing vaccines- dumbfuck “ivy-league experts” have promised the sky to masses.

I can think of many other issues, but we are already past a thousand words. Might write more in a future post on this topic, depending on responses to this one.

What do you think? Comments?

Case Fatality Rates for COVID-19 are Now Decreasing Across the World

July 3, 2020 10 comments

Since I am feeling a bit lazy today, here is a quick post that is nonetheless quite interesting and topical. Many of you have might have heard about the recent resurgence of COVID-19 cases in USA- especially on the lying corporate media. Well.. I noticed a trend too, and not just in USA. Have a look at the first figure and see if you can spot an interesting change in the trends for positive cases vs ICU admissions vs deaths due to COVID-19 in Sweden during past month. In case you can’t see the obvious, let me spell it out..

While Sweden has experienced a large increase in number of people testing positive for COVID-19, this increase has not translated into an increase in people admitted to ICU with COVID-19 or people dying from it. In fact the number of people dying from COVID-19 has gone down a lot in the past month despite a large increase in number of diagnosed cases, to say nothing about undiagnosed cases. This is even more obvious when you compare those trends and figures to what was happening 2-3 months ago.

Clearly, something big has changed. Perhaps we are testing for it more widely, the median age of cases is lower, maybe our symptomatic treatment regimes have gotten better or the virus have mutated into a less lethal version. It could also be a combination. But whichever way you look at it, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 has dropped considerably over past month in that country. And yes.. I did factor in the 1-2 week lag between diagnosis and adverse outcomes.

Moving on to this country, we see a similar trend. While there has been a huge spike in number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 over past few weeks, number of people admitted to hospital (most are not in ICUs) has increased very modestly while number of deaths keep on declining. Once again, a number of things might have changed- lower median age of cases, better medical management, newer virus strains being less lethal etc. But once again, it is hard to ignore that the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has COVID-19 has gone down considerably in past few months.

Of course, it always possible that the real Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 was always much lower than what discredited institutions such as CDC and FDA were pretending.

BTW, Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = percentage of people who die due to diagnosed cases of an infection while Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = percentage who die in all people with that infection- both clinical and subclinical. IFR rates are often calculated after CFR rates as they are based on retrospective analysis of samples and data.

What do you think? Comments?

Potential Consequences of 200-300k COVID-19 Deaths by Election Day

June 12, 2020 16 comments

In the midst of nationwide protests against police brutality, most mainstream media outlets seem to have conveniently forgotten that the COVID-19 pandemic is still killing (mostly old people) in this country at a pretty constant rate. While we are no longer at the peak of about 3k deaths per day, the plateau of about 1k per day does not seem to be decreasing further. Sure.. most people in NYC have probably been exposed to the virus and recovered from it, but most people in flyover country, the deep south and west coast are just now starting to be exposed to it on a large scale. And this brings up an interesting question.. what if COVID-19 ends up killing 200k-300k more people between now and November 3, 2020 aka election day?

To be clear, I am not restricting my analysis to the political implications of such a scenario- which will be considerable. It goes without saying that 200-300k more deaths (even if most are elderly) will throw a massive wrench in the process of reopening the economy in addition to destroying millions more jobs and small businesses than the original shutdown. While I am sure that the stock market will continue booming in response to trillions more dollars for large corporations in the event of such a scenario, it is clear that everybody else will be poor, angry and desperate- especially since political leaders of both parties have shown themselves to be grossly inadequate for the job. Let us now talk about a few obvious effects of such a scenario playing out..

1] A couple hundred thousand more deaths due to COVID-19 will deplete the older (and largely conservative) voter-base of both parties in more than one way. Firstly, there is direct attrition due to the disease in the form of voters who are dead or unwell from post-infection complications (much more likely in 65+ age group). But the indirect effect of such a large number of deaths among the elderly might keep many more in that age range from coming out to vote in person. While this isn’t that big an issue in states with a robust system for voting by mail, it could be spoil a lot of electoral calculations in states where such systems aren’t already in place.

2] Since neither of the two parties have demonstrated the ability, competence or willingness to help the average person most affected by the shutdown.. who is under 45 and increasingly non-white, it would be presumptuous to count on their votes. While it is unlikely that republican will vote for democratic candidates or vice-versa, it is possible that an unusually large number of voters below 50 will just stay home and note vote by election day. This scenario is especially likely if the economy does not pick up by election day, an almost certain outcome if there an additional 200-300k deaths by election day. So we now have a situation where electoral turnout among under-45 and over-65 is likely to be significantly lower than the previous election.

3] But wait.. there is more. As mentioned in previous paragraph, an extra 200-300k deaths by 3rd of November would pretty much negate all the efforts to reopen economy- even if it was not shut down once again. Think about it.. how many people would go to restaurants and bars again even if they were open. What about movie theaters, concerts, sporting events or even malls and offices. What about the effects of such a prolonged and rolling disruption on millions of small businesses, most of whom operate on fairly small profit margins and do not have access to trillions in bailout money unlike large corporations. To make matters worse, both political parties have exhibited a strong unwillingness to bailout both the average person and small business.

4] Which leads us the likelihood of widespread civil unrest, of a scale that will make ongoing BLM protests seem almost quaint by comparison. It is no secret that a pretty significant percentage of those under 40 have jobs or gigs which either disqualify them from unemployment insurance or restrict their access to such benefits. To make matters worse, many financial institutions and rent-seeking outfits have decided that they will not defer or forgive recurring payments from such people- in spite of already having received trillions to cover their potential losses in the event this occurs. So what do you think these people are going to do when they are being evicted from their residences, chased by loan repayment sharks and unable to maintain necessities such as cars.

Did I mention that most of these people are in good physical shape, more educated than their parents and have nothing to lose. Oh.. and one more things, a high percentage of them are white or something other than black- which means the rioting, unrest and other fun will not be restricted to downtown and ‘urban’ areas of large cities. To make matters even worse.. there is very likely to be another wave of mass layoffs over next few months even if the excess 200-300k deaths due to COVID-19 don’t materialize as many business that seem to have survived the initial shutdown have to either shutdown permanently or lay off a good percentage of their current employees. In my opinion, widespread civil unrest, over next few months, by the under-45 due to the economic consequences of this shutdown is now almost inevitable.

5] A further fly in the ointment has to do with the many ongoing standoffs by dying american empire against a host of countries from Iran, Syria and Venezuela to DPRK, Russia and China. Given that Tangerine man’s closest advisors are neocons and the idiot-in-chief seems to think that this voter-base respect “shows of strength”, it is likely that he will decide to intensify these standoffs or even start a war with Iran or DPRK. It does not take a genius to figure out that such military conflicts are unwinnable for USA and will only worsen the domestic situation, especially if the bozo does this after widespread unrest has already started in this country.

To summarize, an extra 200-300k deaths due to COVID-19 by November 3, 2020 are more likely than not, and will worsen a host of large problems and negative trends that we are are already seeing in this country. 2020 promises to even more ‘exciting’ that we anticipated..

What do you think? Comments?