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Inept Western Response to COVID-19 Will Result in Public Backlash: 2

March 24, 2020 37 comments

In the previous post of this series, I promised to write about how the poorly thought shutdowns in combination with inadequate income support will likely cause epically bad public reactions all over USA in the next two to three weeks. Let me quickly update that prediction by saying that the bad public reactions to shutdowns in countries doing an even shittier job of income support, such as India, will be worse. Having said that, there will be far more public anger and discontent in this country than any other major developed country. So let us start talking about the many reasons that thoughtless governmental reaction to this pandemic is likely to discredit both them and other associated institutions even further.

1] One of the most important lessons that western governments have not learned is that, over past three decades, an increasing distrust of them by public as well as vastly increased flow of information makes lying a really bad choice. See.. it was far easier for governments to lie during first half of 20th century because mass media was new and people had not become so cynical and atomized. For example, analysis of the absolutely pathetic quality of military leadership during WW1 took over a decade to even begin entering into the sphere of public conversation. Something similar occurred with WW2 where it took almost two decades for critiques about it (especially for the “victorious” side) to start entering into popular culture. Public critiques about Vietnam war took a few years, Gulf War 1.0 about 2 years, Gulf War 2.0 less than a year.

But how is any of this relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic? Well.. by now I am sure you must have heard or read screeds by numerous media busybodies about how even young people can die from COVID-19 infection. This bullshit usually takes the guise of some breathlessly retweeted article about how one or two under-40s died of it in Italy or Spain, or how some unnamed doctor is tweeting about how there are many young people in the ICU because of respiratory symptoms due to this infection. But the hard data (graphed in this tweet) tell a very different story. To put it bluntly, less than 1 in 500 people under 50 years of age with symptomatic COVID-19 infection of any type (fever, cough to respiratory distress) verified by PCR -based tests end up dying. Even those under 60 experience a mortality rate of somewhere between 0.4 to 1.3%.

These patterns holds irrespective of country or continent. Don’t forget that a good percentage of infected people either don’t become symptomatic or the symptoms are mild or vague enough for them to not seek medical attention or testing. To put it another way, it is realistic to assume that the mortality rate for people with COVID-19 infection who under 50 is below 1 in 500 and likely closer to 1 in 1000, once you factor in the untested asymptomatic (or mildly symptomatic and untested) individuals. The same is probably true for those between 50 and 60 years, with the real mortality rate (for all infected individuals) in this group approaching somewhere between 1 in 200 to 1 in 400. Officials pretending that mortality is not low in individuals under 60 is going to hurt their public credibility- when they need it the most.

2] Now let us talk about the topic of money, or more specifically how most people are going to have enough money to survive let alone pay bills during this shutdown. Given that the economy and most jobs in western countries is based on mass consumption, it is darkly comic to see that not one government (even among the supposedly socialist nordic countries) seems to have a fucking clue about how they plan to replace the income of every person in their country. Yes.. you heard that right! Every person, not just every person who can file an unemployment claim. This is especially important since a pretty sizable minority of people under 40 in those countries do not have regular well-paying jobs. Given that this group is also the one least affected by COVID-19, any decrease in their already meager lifestyle will make them ask questions about the utility of boomers and older people- to put it mildly. Did I mention that western countries are already socially atomized and most of them just don’t care about old people.

Even paying 80% of the salary of those not yet been fired from jobs is insufficient. And I am also pretty sure that the neoliberal mindset which pervades political and bureaucrat types in these countries will not consider a worthwhile universal basic income (albeit, temporary) until it is too late. To put it bluntly, any governmental measure to replace lost income which does not actually put enough money in the pockets of people by mid-April in USA and mid-May in most European countries is going to be basically useless- as far as the longer term is concerned. Many idiots like to believe that crisis bring people together, however a reading of history suggest that this occurs only when the crisis is well-manged by governments in charge. Don’t believe me.. just read about what happened in the aftermath of WW1, where even countries that were on the winning side (Italy, Spain, many countries in Eastern Europe) experienced long-term civil strife which led to authoritarian governments. That is why so many dictators arose in 1920s and 1930s.

This is even more relevant today since the 2008 global financial crisis destroyed the faith of many people (especially those under 40) in the previous systems and its institutions. There is a reason why Trump is the president and Bernie can get donations from millions of supporters. Expect the trend of people under 40 (and even 50) distrusting institutions to increase, not decrease. Should also point out that a pretty significant number of those under 40 don’t have kids and family and are therefore likely to go much further than those who might have something to lose. It does not help that an open-ended shutdown of most parts of economy is a very bad idea, even when faced by something like pandemic. People will not come together in solidarity if there is no light at end of tunnel and have nothing to gain by playing nice.

Let me spell that out a bit more clearly. See.. unless most under 40s (and under 50s) see a much better future at end of this particular tunnel, they will stop complying and playing nice with the system- especially if they see no compensation for the loss caused by measures which might reduce the mortality among boomers and older people. And you can’t blame them- what do they have to lose? It should also be noted that social atomization in western countries has long since reached levels where majority of people don’t really care about their old parents. Now try making people care about the welfare of old people to whom they are not related. This is also why I believe that Trump’s idea of slowly opening economy will get far more public support than most LIEbrals realize, even if doing so resulted in the death of many old people.

Will write more in next part about why Trump’s idea of opening the economy much sooner than recommended by “credentialed experts” might actually be one of his best brainfarts. And yes, he is absolutely right to ask whether the human loss and ruin caused by shutting down the economy is worth the lives saved by controlling this specific open-ended but low-mortality pandemic.

What do you think? Comments?

Inept Western Response to COVID-19 Will Result in Public Backlash: 1

March 22, 2020 21 comments

Initially, I considered making this the next post in my previous series about how the coronavirus pandemic will cause the most damage to USA. But upon further thinking, I realized that while the USA is going to suffer the most direct and indirect damage from this pandemic, so would most other western countries- if on a smaller scale. Then it hit me.. the most important reason behind why the western countries would suffer far more damage than east-Asian counterparts has a lot to do with differences in how government is structured (and works) in those two systems. The west, especially in past four decades, have become truly capitalist in that the needs and demands of those who have capital (corporations and very rich) supersede those of everybody else. In contrast, east-Asian countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc are not capitalist in the same way as western counties, because the demands and needs of society will frequently supersede those of their moneyed classes. Let me explain..

1] Initially, the provincial administration in Hubei tried to first minimize and then cover-up the impact of this outbreak, but failed. Once this became obvious, the central government in China just stepped in put and put incredible amounts of physical and monetary resources to control the outbreak. Most importantly, they did it without any concern to the cost of doing so or potential economic losses which their own moneyed class might suffer. To make a long story short, they put the welfare of majority above the needs and demands of their moneyed class. Their ability to marshal resources to get personal protective gear to affected areas, stop price gouging, maintain law and order, ensure people are fed and taken care of during the ensuing lockdown, remove affected people into quarantine, start dozens of clinical trials is very impressive. Most importantly, they let people who understood the problem (medical experts in infectious diseases) make all important decisions rather than let commercial interests and local capitalists hinder or dilute their recommendations for controlling the outbreak.

But they did not stop at just epidemiological measures to control this outbreak. Soon after the central government got involves, it ordered banks to stop collecting mortgage and loan payments and well as made sure that utilities stopped collecting bills. They made sure that people did not have to worry about pay rents or not having enough money for food and other necessities. To that end, they poured hundreds of billions (at least) into their economy to make sure that people kept getting paid even when they could not work due to being under lockdown. They went so far to make sure that food was regularly delivered to apartment buildings in areas under lock-down and that important functions such as garbage collection, food transport etc were not interrupted. My point is that the Chinese government did a lot to make sure that its own people (at least the majority) did not suffer from the consequences of not being able to work or move about freely when under lockdown because of the outbreak. To summarize, they did everything a competent government which cared for its own citizens would have done.

2] Now compare this to the shitshow currently playing out in western countries. First, they were delusional enough to believe that the outbreak would not spread to the west. This was also when their presstitutes were busy writing editorials about how China’s response was either too much, too little or otherwise “not correct”. They also spent the next two months doing almost nothing useful such as developing and distributing diagnostic tests etc. Then some of these idiots were spending time fantasizing about how this outbreak would destabilize China or Iran. Of course, China has never cared about what some idiots in declining western countries have been saying about them for decades. I remember how even two weeks ago, many credentialed losers in the field of biomedical research in west were busy writing editorials about how China’s approach to testing any drug which might have some therapeutic effect in those patients was a bad idea. We now know who was right, don’t we?

But it gets worse. When it became obvious that the virus had reached and was spreading in parts of northern Italy, governments in the EU were more concerned with potential losses suffered by their capitalist minority than the health of the majority. It does not take a genius to figure out that a sharp but brief shutdown of northern Italy along with a simultaneous massive increase in testing (perhaps with kits imported from South Korea) could have prevented much of the spread we are now seeing in Europe. While Italy, Spain and some other European countries have since implemented such socialist ideas such as freezing mortgage, utility, loan and in some cases rent payments, along with income support, it took them much longer than China to take these obvious steps. My point is that they could done this much earlier and with far better outcome, but a combination of magical racist thinking, obsession with interests of capitalist minority and general lack of competent people in their bureaucracies prevented them from making the right decisions at right time. But, at least, they are finally catching up with reality.

3] The response in USA has, thus far, been the biggest shitshow of them all. And let us be honest about something else- Trump’s contribution to this farce is minor, at best. Many features of the american system which contributed to this farcical response predate Trump, in many cases by a least a couple of decades. The current round of downsizing in public health institutions began under Obama- not unlike putting brown children in cages. Similarly, many governmental programs for developing drugs to treat emerging infectious diseases have been downsized for almost a decade now. Also, institutional sclerosis which prevents the government or companies from trying out new ideas under extreme circumstances has been a feature of biomedical research in USA for over two decades. We also cannot forget how concentrating research money into a few “prestigious” universities filled with mediocre credentialed but highly politically connected researchers has destroyed the quality of research in this country.

The response in USA to this pandemic has similarly been pathetic and comically inept. They have closed down the livelihood of over 100 million people (most of whom live paycheck to paycheck) without offering them prompt economic relief in the form of no-strings attached governmental money. They are still pretending that young people have the same risk of death from infection as boomers- something, which is going to backfire real soon. They are trying to bail out corporations without making sure that average people are bailed out first. They have offered no timeline for the return of normalcy. They have offered no hope to people in the form of of-label use of drugs which might reduce mortality in high-risk groups. Trump promoting Hydroxychloroquine or Chloroquine + Azithromycin to reduce viral loads and thus mortality is the probably the only good thing that has come out of the government, so far. And ya.. there is enough evidence that these drugs have some therapeutic effect- especially if given early in course of disease.

In the next part, I will write about how the poorly thought out shutdowns in combination with inadequate income and other support for most people will likely cause epically bad public reactions all over USA in the next two weeks. And yes, I am willing to bet that the legislative critters in Washington DC won’t be able to get their shit together and pass something that will stave off the beginnings of widespread social unrest in about two weeks. FYI- two weeks is about the length of time most people in USA can go without a paycheck. Did I mention that public trust in institutions (governmental or private) has never recovered since global financial crisis of 2008.

What do you think? Comments?

USA Will Likely Suffer the Most Damage from Coronavirus Pandemic: 2

March 18, 2020 22 comments

In my previous post, I wrote about how structural characteristics of the american economy and long-standing institutional decay will likely result in USA suffering the maximum damage from the Coronavirus pandemic. In it, I also promised to talk about other related issues which make USA especially vulnerable to the direct and indirect damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. These include the lack of a usable social safety net, staffing of nursing homes and elder care in general by precariat workers, ideological unwillingness of government to directly workers for lost earnings especially if they are temporary and part-time, the risk of shortages of medicines, chemicals, electronic stuff etc caused by temporary disruption of supply chains in China. So let us dive right in by starting with the issue of a social safety net, or more precisely its lack, in USA.

1] Even the most delusional ‘murican would agree that the social safety net in this country is very meager compared to what exists in other developed countries. While most west-European countries once had similar attitudes towards social safety nets, things changed a lot after WW2. There is a reason why the average European after 1945 decided that working under conditions similar to those found in USA today was unacceptable. And let us be honest about something, the European rich were (and are) not better human beings than their American counterparts. They just had to go along with what the majority in those countries wanted after WW2, or risk losing it all. However, since the USA experienced a long-boom in the aftermath of WW2 (1945-1975) most of its workers never experienced the socio-economic pressures which led to creation of the modern welfare state in European countries.

To make a long story short, socialism never took root in post-WW2 USA because the median american worker in the first three to four decades did not live through prolonged bad times. And this is also why all this current talk of socialism in USA only began after the majority experienced a full decade of stagnation and decline in aftermath of 2008 global financial crisis. So what does all of this portend for the public reaction to the fallout of this ongoing crisis. Well.. let me put it this way. Unemployment rates of over 20% (maybe even north of 30%), even if short-lived, are unworkable in a system without a decent social safety net and where the median person cannot afford to miss even a single paycheck because they have less than 500 dollars in the bank. Things will get very ugly in this country if the government cannot drop a couple of grand of ‘helicopter money‘ per household within the next two-three weeks.

2] To Trump’s credit, he is clever enough to see that this problem and seems to have embraced the idea of ‘helicopter money’. As I have mentioned many times in the past, He may not be a genius (to out it mildly) but the guy is pretty street-smart and is very ideologically flexible when he feels the need to save his behind. Mark my words, he will even channel FDR if necessary to keep the angry mob way from him. Ironically, it is loser establishment democrats such as Pelosi, Schumer etc who are talking about fiscal restraint, “deficits” and “means testing”. To be quite blunt- if Trump is successful with getting the ‘helicopter money’ thing done, along with massive stimulus for especially affected sectors of economy, democrats can forget winning anything let alone the presidency in 2020. Also, let me remind you that Obama did nothing along those lines in 2009 or 2010. And that is why he barely scraped by to win in 2012.

It does not help that between trying to nominate a used-car salesman with dementia (Joe Biden) as their candidate and shouting about Russia, Putin and Ukraine for over three years, they have not done anything big to actually convince potential new voters to vote for them in 2020. Their so-called “victory in the 2018 mid-terms was only possible because Trump was stupid enough to try repealing ‘Obamacare’ without replacing it with a better system. And in case you didn’t notice it, he has learned from that mistake. In my opinion, what happens in USA in the next few months depends on whether Trump can deliver somewhere between 2-4 k to most american households by mid April- at the latest. If he can do that + properly bailout major sectors hit by indirect effects of this pandemic- he will win in 2020. If not, he will be reviled for a long time.

3] Regardless of what he does within next 2-3 weeks, the american economy will enter a steep recession with economic contraction of somewhere between 15-20% in next few months. And no.. these are not the feverish dreams of somebody who wants to see USA fall, but conservative figures floated by people working in supposedly “respectable” banking institutions. I would not be surprised if the economic contraction (and unemployment rate) reached 30% for almost a year. This is great depression territory and much more deeper as well systemic than the GFC of 2008. You know something else, mass unemployment in a country with a functional social safety net at that time was a very important factor for the rise of Hitler to power. And not just him, since almost every strongman of the 1920s-30s (from Mussolini and Franco to many others in East-European countries came to power in the aftermath of mass unemployment and disillusionment with existing institutions and the status quo.

Since we are already close to a thousand words, I will write about the other issues raised in this post in a subsequent part of this unintentional series.

What do you think? Comments?

USA Will Likely Suffer the Most Damage from Coronavirus Pandemic: 1

March 14, 2020 45 comments

Some of you will remember that I have previously written four previous posts (link 1, link 2, link 3 and link 4) on the ongoing global coronavirus outbreak. Consider this post as the next part of that unofficial series. And yes.. there is a specific reason why I am not making it into an official series, yet. The situation is still evolving and could take a number of highly consequential turns. For example, it is possible that one or more of presidential candidates (Trump, Biden, Sanders) might catch COVID-19 and pass away by election day. Imagine the impact on political scene if Dementia Joe, who also has a long-standing cardiac arrhythmia (atrial fibrillation), dies within the next month. So let us now talk about the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on USA- which I predict will suffer the most damage (direct and indirect) of any country.

1] It is, now, almost a given that there will be an economic recession in this country within the next three months. Sure.. Trump’s fucking up things will make it worse, but it would have been pretty bad even if a semi-competent loser such as Obummer was in office. One cannot just shut down or reduce the activity of so many businesses sectors (airlines, hotels, other tourism related business, restaurants, shops etc) without causing a serious economic downturn. Unlike during previous eras, most jobs in this country are now in the service sector. Did I mention that these jobs offer low job security and poor pay? To make a long story short, most people in the service sector and other business dependent on it are not going to get paid soon- which is a problem since over 60% of people in this country don’t have enough savings to cover their next month’s rent or mortgage payment. And it gets worse.

2] As many of you know, the so-called ‘gig economy’ which flourishes by exploiting ‘independent contractors’ has become a fixture of life in many larger cities over past decade. While these “jobs” are often not the only source of income for those who perform them, they often provide the extra money necessary for many people to “participate in the consumer economy”. So even if ‘Uber’ guy also drives for a regular Taxicab company, any reduction in his expected income from rise-sharing services is going to fuck with his ability to pay bills on time, let alone keep spending on stuff he would normally buy. But the numbers in the ‘gig economy’ pales in comparison to those employed as ‘independent contractors’ by large companies. These ‘contractors’ are often employed by businesses who themselves are dependent on contracts from large companies such as Google, FakeBook, Amazon, Walmart and yes.. even your local hospital, university, school etc.

3] Some democrat cultists (MikeCA?) will try to tell you that the Obummer administration would have done an infinitely better job than the Trump administration. But it is that really true? While the Obummer administration did face some pandemics such as the influenza pandemic of 2009, there is no way to accurately predict how they would have would responded to such a pandemic. See.. COVID-19, unlike Ebola or MERS, is far easier to spread. While it is likely that the Obummer administration would have behaved more professionally, it is unlikely this would have somehow translated into better policy. If you don’t believe me, just look at how that administration handled the foreclosure crisis in 2009-20210 or how it kept pushing outsourcing and globalization even when it was obvious that those policies were screwing over their voter bases. So ya.. there is no definitive evidence that a Obummer administration would have done screwed up any less- even if they would have acted more “professionally” while doing so.

4] Let us now talk about how the defects inherent in the american “healthcare” system, default neoliberal ideology among both political parties and Trump’s obsession with the stock market will fuck things up- even more than they have to be. For starters, consider the issue of testing. Ask yourself a simple question- how can countries such as South Korea and Canada quickly test a pretty high number of people for COVID-19? Well.. the simple answer is that healthcare in both those countries (and every developed country other than USA) is treated as a public good which is highly regulated by the government to make it available (rather than merely “accessible”) to all their people. In contrast, the “healthcare” system is a bureaucratic nightmare full of multiple powerful lobbies whose sole purpose is to extract the maximum amount of money for the least amount of actual healthcare. This intentional design choice makes the system almost incapable of responding or adapting to new challenges and pressures.

Then there is the issue of how people within the system work, or don’t work. See.. in all other developed countries, physicians and other people actually involved in running the system have considerable freedom to make decisions on the fly if conventional approaches don’t seem to be working. For example, in both South Korea and Canada, insurance companies have no role whatsoever in approving tests, treatments in hospital etc. Also the vast majority of hospitals in those countries are not run to make a profit. Consequently, they put the welfare of patients above considerations such as whether some test or medication will get reimbursed. That is why countries such as South Korea were able to put up scores of convenient testing facilities so quickly. However this is not the case in USA even today, and Medicare for all is still considered a pipe-dream by “centrists” such as MikeCA. Moving on to governing ideology..

5] Every developed country other than USA has far more competent governmental bureaucracies because their politicians and populace understand their necessity. However, in this country corporate-funded politicians a good percentage of their brainless subjects are more than happy to go along with the bullshit about governmental bureaucracies being inefficient and “bad”. Guess what.. once you assume that and defund government bureaucracies you will end up with hollow shells of once well-known institutions such as the NTSB and CDC. And this is how you end up with disasters such as the Boeing 737-Max fiasco and, now, the COVID-19 outbreak spiraling out of control in USA. While shills such as MikeCA would like to blame all of this on evil republicans, let me remind you that all the cutting and slashing of governmental bureaucracies which occurred from 1980 to today was largely supported by a bipartisan “consensus”.

Since this post is already above a thousand words, I will leave discussion about other issues such as the lack of a social safety net in this country, the staffing of nursing homes and elder care by precariat workers, unwillingness of government to directly compensate temporary and part-time workers, risk of widespread shortages of products such as medicines, chemicals, electronic stuff etc caused by temporary disruption of supply chains in China, to another post or a new series.

What do you think? Comments?

More Clips of Joe Biden Showing Obvious Symptoms of Senile Dementia

March 9, 2020 4 comments

Here are a couple of YouTube clips about how most mainstream corporate media presstitutes are trying to cover up for Joe Biden’s obvious decline into overt Senile Dementia. Also a couple of the latest Biden brainfarts.. assuming he has one left: Link 1 and Link 2.

Clip # 1: Saagar Enjeti and Ryan Grim talking about Joe Biden’s Dementia.

But this situation is starting to change as Joe Biden has become the choice of the democratic establishment.

Clip # 2: The Jimmy Dore Show about how Fox is starting to attack Joe Biden’s brain “issues”.

What do you think? Comments?

Joe Biden is Displaying Very Obvious Symptoms of Senile Dementia

March 7, 2020 4 comments

As I mentioned in a recent post, any sane person who has been watching the very few, short and carefully stage-managed public appearances of Joe Biden cannot ignore that he is showing very obvious symptoms of early-stage senile dementia. While we could spend a lot of time speculating about why supposedly “smart” people such as Obama came up with the “brilliant” brainfart of anointing him as the establishment’s choice in the ongoing 2020 party presidential primary- that is best reserved for another post. Instead, let us talk about another aspect of this clusterfuck- one which I briefly wrote about in my previous post. As some of you might know, the Trump re-election campaign and Trump have now started hinting at Joe Biden’s rapidly diminishing mental capability. But more importantly an increasing number of people on the left have started focusing on it ever since Obummer tried to pull of a nomination coup. To make a long story short, Biden’s dementia is soon going to become a topic of public discussion regardless of whether spineless Bernie or his official surrogates raise that issue or not.

Take a look at this very recent clip from Joe Rogan’s show in which he openly says that Biden has senile dementia and is not fit to run for public office. Party zealots such as MikeCA should expect clips like these and weekly compilations of Biden’s so-called “gaffes” to start making the rounds on social media sites. I am sure that democratic party establishment will keep dismissing Biden’s neurological meltdowns as “gaffes” caused by his childhood stuttering issues. But it is obvious to average people watching them that Biden’s neurological issues are much worse than stuttering. I mean, the guy often does not know where he is, which office he is running for, mixes up his wife and sister, cannot often recall the name of the president he served under, can’t remember basic phrases from 4th grade civics curricula and the list goes on. Any other man of his age with his medical history and showing these symptoms would have been diagnosed with senile dementia a long time ago, but Joe Biden has a pretty good chance of being the democratic party nominee for president. Even Reagan didn’t start displaying noticeable symptoms until his second term.

Some more clips of Biden displaying obvious symptoms of dementia: link 1, link 2 and link 3.

And here is one Twitter Meme on that topic

and here is another one..

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 3

March 3, 2020 14 comments

In the previous post of this series, I promised to write about how the results of South Carolina’s democrat primary would be used by the party establishment to try and push the candidacy of an old guy with vascular dementia aka Joe Biden. Yes, you heard that right- it is my opinion that Joe Biden displays symptoms consistent with cerebrovascular dementia. In case you didn’t know, this is a sub-type of senile dementia in which neuronal dysfunction and death is largely caused by micro- and macro- vascular dysfunction in the brain, rather than pathological changes associated with Alzheimer’s Disease. It should be noted that most patients with senile dementia have some combination of cerebrovascular dysfunction and pathological changes seen in Alzheimer’s disease. So what makes me think that Joe Biden’s obvious dementia is of the vascular type?

Well.. due to his medical history. Patients with the more classical version of Alzheimer’s tend to be female and in their late 70s or older. Vascular dementia type pathology, on the other hand, is more common in men- especially those with a history of previous vascular dysfunction, a history of previous traumatic brain injury or prior neurosurgery. As some of you might know, Biden had a couple of surgeries in the late 1980s to repair two particularly nasty aneurysms in his brain. While those surgeries saved his life, it should be noted that somebody with multiple aneurysms (even after repair) is far more likely to develop other cerebrovascular issues later on in their life than somebody who never had them. To quickly summarize, Biden rapid and obvious cognitive decline since 2012-2015 is most likely the result of (predominantly) vascular dementia.

But why does this matter and what does it have to do with future of democratic primary? As it turns out a lot. Let me explain. See.. Biden has gone down in the polls since his entry into the race for two main reasons. Firstly, the Bernie’s campaign cleverly dug up his long record of support for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. But even more importantly, because Biden’s staff kept his media or public appearances to a bare minimum because they rightly understood that he was displaying too many symptoms of dementia for potential voters to look the other way. This is also why rich donors were willing to put far more money behind other turncoat candidates such as McKinsey Buttboy and Lying Liz. This is why DNC’s original plan to deny Bernie the nomination- which was based on flooding the field with many candidates who were expected to take votes away from Bernie- but not Biden backfired, spectacularly.

To be fair, Bloomberg’s unanticipated entry into the race and his spending over 500 million on advertising to project himself as the centrist alternative was the killer blow for Biden- which is ironic since Bloomberg was trying to stop Bernie, not Biden. I could write multiple posts on why McKinsey Buttboy and Amy Binderthrower got steamrolled in the primaries, but they are no longer relevant. The very short version is that the number of partisan democrats who want 90s-style centrists is declining as more babyboomers keep dying. You might have seen the grifting piece of shit aka Barack Obama was able to get Buttboy and Binderthrower to drop out yesterday and endorse Biden. As I have written in the past Obama is the political equivalent of Bill Cosby and his presidency was a disaster for establishment democrats, which makes their continued worship of him even more pathetic. I am sure MikeCA will disagree with this assessment.

Since we cannot change the past, so let us talk about the future- specifically my predictions about how the democratic primary will evolve. FYI- I am not concerned about the results of Super Tuesday voting since Obama’s last minute scam does not change the overall direction of this contest. Having said that it changes something further down the line. Let me explain..

1] Any person who is not an establishment democrat or partisan worshiper (MikeCA?) will tell you that the party has experienced a pretty steep decline in many parts of the country within the past decade. To be fair it has been on a generally downward path for the past twenty years, but it is undeniable that this slow-motion collapse sped up after Obama took office in early-2009. But why? Well.. the short answer is that Obama got elected by pretending to a populist reformer, but ended up continuing and intensifying neoliberal policies once in office. There is a reason why it took the incredible ineptitude of Trump for democrats, in 2018, to even partially reverse their decade-long streak of losses. However, thus far, no political figure of any fame has openly said that Obama was a shitty president and the proximal cause of Trump’s rise.

Even Bernie Sanders, whose private critique of Obama is well known, has so far not criticized the later openly. However the dumb meddling that Obama pulled off yesterday is almost certain to make Bernie’s campaign reconsider their previous reticence to criticize him. This is especially likely since they now understand that older black voters in the south are not going to vote for a Jew under any condition. Also, after Super Tuesday there are no big states full of older black voters coming up for some time- if at all. So expect the Bernie campaign, especially surrogates to start going after the many problematic legacies of Obama’s presidency. While Bernie would have had to do this at a later stage anyway, Obama’s meddling in the primary removes the one reason they had not done so till now.

2] While Lying Liz has pretended to be a progressive, nobody with half-a-brain and even a brief overview of her career believed that lie. However, Bernie foolishly refrained from criticizing her once the election campaign began. Given her actions since then, especially in the past month- I am guessing that many in his campaign were eager to tear her a new one. Now that she has publicly admitted her role as a DNC-appointed spoiler for progressive voters- expect the Bernie campaign to go after her. And they will have to, because there is no realistic option to that course of action. Of course, Bernie could be stupid (or cynical) enough to not challenge her bullshit- but realistically we are all going to gothere, whether he likes it or not.

3] Bernie has also refrained from any attacks on Joe Biden’s cognitive ability or talking about how the Biden family enriched themselves because of the various political offices he held. While this was kinda acceptable when Biden was slowly sinking in the polls and the centrist vote was split, they just cannot afford to do this now. While it is far more likely that most of the attacking on these issues will be done by Bernie surrogates, sooner or later things will reach a point when Biden’s obvious dementia will be an issue for open public discussion. Once again, even if Bernie does not want to there- he has no recourse. More importantly, his second-order surrogates are already going after Biden’s cognitive status. And you can bet that Trump is going to push those two narratives on a massive scale, even if Bernie does not. One way or the other, both issues will enter the domain of political campaigning in a big way. The general direction, as they say, is set.

It is of course possible that Bernie does not do any of this and ends up losing like he did in 2016. However doing so in 2020 carries very different implications from doing it four years ago. In the first campaign, he was the relatively unknown newcomer who was talking about ideas that were popular but almost never mentioned by other politicians. 2020 is likely the last time he will run for the nomination and presidency. To put it another way, if he is not seen as putting everything in this campaign, he will lose the following he has built and have no legacy- at least of the type he seems to crave. He has no option but to go on the offensive now..

I am curious to see how Bloomberg performs in the Super Tuesday states today. Will he keep sucking votes from Biden? Will he stay in the race after tomorrow. Who knows? Will write about my analysis of today’s primaries in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?