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Economic Fallout of COVID-19 Shutdown will Dominate 2020 Elections

May 3, 2020 17 comments

As many of you know, I have consistently held the opinion that social and economic fallout from overreaction to this pandemic is going to be far worse and consequential than the final death toll. In case you need a refresher, here are a few links (link 1, link 2, link 3). While yet another post about this general topic might seem tediously repetitive, it is my opinion that even supposedly non-corporate media-types are too fixated on the deaths of 81-year-olds in nursing homes to notice the absolutely unprecedented socio-economic damage and long-term consequences of this shutdown on many western countries. And yes.. the negative effects of this shutdown will be far bigger in western countries and wannabes such as India than their East-Asian counterparts.

1] Many serological surveys in areas with high rates of deaths due to COVID-19 have consistently shown that the number of people who were infected by this virus (and developed antibodies to it) but did not develop symptoms sufficient to seek medical attention is about 10-50 times higher than number who tested positive for the virus with PCR-based tests. Note that PCR-based tests can only detect active infection (in all patients) or post-infectious viral shedding (in a small minority). In other words, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections account for the vast majority of cases. To make a long story short, serological surveys from even the worst hit areas with an older population suggest an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of less than 0.5%.

Even in areas of northern Italy that are full of old retirees and nursing homes, the chance of an infection leading to death is less than 1 in 200. Now I am sure that some of you are going to tell me that the present generation of serological tests have high error rates etc. And this is in spite of most of you never having performed a serological test let alone have an understanding of the factors which lead to false positive and false negative results in those tests. Once again, to make a long story short, the tests used in most of these surveys were independently validated by the researchers who used them and almost every single one had false positive rates below 1%. To put it another way, while some of the tests could be better, the vast majority were good enough to detect rates of seropositivity over 2%.

In many heavily affected areas, these surveys show rates of seropositivity in the 10-15%, 20-30% and even 50% range. Moreover, the geographical distribution of seropositivity rates in each survey tracks the death rate in those areas. But what does a discussion of seropostivity trends and extrapolated IFR contribute to a post on how the socio-economic fallout of this pandemic will dominate 2020 elections. Well.. let me spell it out for you. An infection, however contagious, with an IFR of less than 0.5% and most likely closer to 0.2% is not much worse than a bad strain of Influenza. Since the end of WW2, we had at least 4-5 Influenza pandemics with similar or slightly higher IFR rates. While some of these pandemics necessitated shutting down schools etc for a few weeks etc, none resulted in a generalized economic shutdown of the kind we are seeing today.

2] Given that the 2020 elections are in early November, which is about six months from today, you can be certain that general experience and many more serological surveys with even better tests will reveal an IFR of around 0.2% (1 death per 500 infections). Since this is no worse for most of the population (below 80 years) than an especially bad Influenza season, people who have been ruined and impoverished through the loss of their jobs and businesses will start asking some very inconvenient questions about the “official response” to this pandemic. Was a general shutdown really necessary? Given the mild presentation and low infectivity of this disease in children and young adults, was the closure of schools and universities really necessary?

Weren’t highly targeted actions meant to protect the most vulnerable (65+ and chronically ill) the better option- especially since we knew, even early on, that the disease caused the vast majority of fatalities in those groups? Given that this virus can easily spread in aerosols beyond 2 meters, how was this whole “social distancing” bullshit any different from post 9/11 security theater in airports. How was the decision to close “non-essential” retail and restaurants a good idea, when studies show that most transmissions occur in private residences, nursing homes, hospitals, cruise ships, aircraft carriers and other unusually crowded and enclosed areas. And the questions will keep get more problematic..

Why did so many elected officials not have a well-thought out (if somewhat unemotional) plan to reopen the economy? Even today, politicians from states such as NY and CA to TX and GA do not have a coherent and well-thought of plan for definitively reopening the economy- the key word being ‘definitively’. Do these elected dumbfucks think that pausing the economy for 12-18 months is possible? This question becomes especially important when it becomes obvious that the IFR is about 0.2% and there is a very clear way to identify those with the worst outcomes? Do these dummies have a plan to successfully develop, mass produce and mass vaccinate hundreds of millions? Given how badly they have bumbled thus far, why would you believe them? Why would you trust people whose poor decision-making skills have already ruined your life?

3] Talking about those who have suffered due to incompetent leaders making poor decisions.. how can all these unemployed people afford to keep on paying rents, mortgages, car payments, health insurance payments, university fees etc. While it might be tempting to point out that the Trump administration has been especially incompetent and stingy at delivering cash payments to average people- even countries which have done a much better job have not been able to make average people whole again. Small business in this country face a similar problem, because most of the trillions in government aid has gone to large companies and multinationals. Long story short, even if the economy all over this country was opened tomorrow, there would tens of millions who would be unemployed and many millions whose small businesses had failed for no fault of theirs. Do we have the political will to implement a decent social safety net?

Democrats, such as that corrupt dago from NY and that neoliberal from CA, are now positioning themselves as the new ‘resistance’ against Trump. They keep on mumbling random bullshit, which they don’t understand, such as “science based plans” for reopening economy etc. Are you fucking serious? Have these democrat dumbfucks even performed a back-of-envelope reckoning of the number (and percentage) of newly unemployed people and failed business in their state? Are they stupid enough to imagine that people won’t blame them for destroying their livelihoods? Then again the democratic party was stupid enough to nominate HRC in 2016 and that dementia patient.. Joe Biden.. in 2020. So, I guess it is possible. Also note how establishment democrats such as that hag with bad plastic surgery.. Nancy Pelosi.. and her compatriots have pretty much disappeared from the public arena. It doesn’t help that these losers haven’t come up with anything beyond a few “means tested” and very inadequate programs to help those affected by biggest financial crisis since the great depression.

Yes.. you read that right. The COVID-19 pandemic, specifically its aftermath, is the biggest financial crisis since the great depression of the early 1930s. The GFC of 2008 now looks almost quaint compared to how bad things have gotten so far, and we are nowhere near the end of this one. And you something else.. when such a large scale disaster or crisis strikes any country, affected people always look for scapegoats. The last time we had an election with over 20% unemployment in this country was in 1932, about 88 years ago- and we know how that went. Heck, even a now minor one like the one in 2008 made many people vote for a black guy who sounded good on TV than anyone remotely connected to that mess. Some partisan democrats (MikeCA) might think that this crisis will translate into a victory for his cult. I wouldn’t be so sure.. because in this crisis, democrats have visibly fucked up at least as much (if not more) than their republican counterparts- and it shows.

Establishment types in the democratic party seem to believe (almost as a matter of faith) that Trump’s fuckups will somehow magically hand them the presidency in 2020. However, as I mentioned in the previous paragraphs, there is more than enough blame to go around, and this will be very apparent by early November. At that time, many tens of millions of impoverished and angry people will want to find and lynch a scapegoat.. any scapegoat. Chances are that Trump’s rhetoric of “opening the economy for business” might sound far better to them than “lets keep it all closed (or close to that) until some undefined date in the future”. This outcome is especially likely once it becomes obvious that the IFR is somewhere between 0.2-0.5% and even lower (0.1%) in working-age population. In any case, the economic fallout of the response to this pandemic is going to totally overshadow the number of deaths from it by November 2020.

What do you think? Comments?

Response to COVID-19 Will Destroy Democratic Party in 2020 Elections

April 20, 2020 74 comments

I was going to post an article about the stupid western LIEbral reaction to use of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine to treat SARS-2 disease in its initial stages. FYI- there is a rapidly increasing amount of evidence from different parts of the world that standard dosages of both drugs started within first few days of symptomatic SARS-2 illness do significantly reduce (by about 4-5 times) the risk of hospitalization in its later stages. This is a big deal, as the percentage of older people who die after becoming sick enough to be hospitalized is much higher than those below 65. While writing that article, which will be hopefully post next, I had an interesting epiphany. In its briefest form, it is as follows: the reactions (and in cases, the lack thereof) by establishment LIEbrals to the economic crisis created by current dumb and ineffectual measures deployed to contain this coronavirus pandemic will likely sink the democratic party during 2020 elections.

While this particular take on what is clearly a rapidly evolving and multifactorial crisis might seem premature, especially since the election is almost 6 months away- my analysis is based on solid factors which most LIEbrals are ignoring at their own peril. I am sure some of the more ardent worshipers of LIEbralism (MikeCA?) would like to tell me how the republican party will suffer the biggest electoral losses in generations since Trump (and by association, that party) botched the initial response to this pandemic. To which I say.. sure, Trump and the republican party certainly botched the initial response to this pandemic and ensuing crisis- but so did every other major western country (from UK and France to Italy and Spain). But let us be honest about something, we have already passed the point where the initial botched response still matters to most people. What matters now is how the political parties in power in those countries deal with the massive economic fallout caused by measures instituted to allegedly contain this pandemic.

Some of you might say.. isn’t the mortality due to this pandemic still the biggest cause for concern. Well.. based on a preponderance of evidence, it is not and let me explain how I reached that conclusion. A number of recent population studies which look for specific antibodies generated in response to SARS-2 infection seem to strongly suggest that the percentage of population who were exposed to this infection and went on to develop an asymptomatic (or mildly symptomatic) form is about 10-50 times higher than the cases who were ill enough to be tested by the PCR tests used for detecting viral RNA. In other words, rate of functionally asymptomatic infections for SARS-2 is at least 10 fold higher than previously thought- especially in otherwise healthy people below 60. While there is no shortage of doomers pretending to be “statisticians” who want to tell you that all that data is somehow wrong, the number of studies from different countries (using different test kits) which support the high rates of asymptomatic infection is now so high that a non-biased person would have to admit that it is true.

So why does this matter? Well.. it immediately changes the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of SARS-2 from 1-3% in countries with extensive PCR-based testing to lower than 0.3-0.1% or even lower for those under 65. While a CFR of about 0.2% is higher than most yearly influenza epidemics, it is in the range of major influenza pandemics such as the one in 1957-1958. That pandemic killed about 100k people in USA when its population was almost half of what it is today. At that time it was seen as an unfortunate, but still acceptable, body count and things improved quickly once it was over. My point is that, heartless as it might seem, a body count of 200k (mostly old people) is not going to have a long-term adverse effect on this country. However a prolonged shutdown which creates 30-40% unemployment rates on top of massive number of business failures is going to cause far more problems that burying or burning the corpses of 200k mostly very old (and white) dead people. And yes, I have factored in the differences in rates of death by race as well as the percentage of each group in population.

But what does any of this have to do with why the official response to this pandemic will likely destroy the democratic party in 2020 elections. To better understand what I am going to talk about, let us first spell out a few obvious facts. Firstly, elections will occur in early November 2020, when the economic impact of the shutdown due to official government response will be a far bigger issue than the number of old dead people. As a consequence, the way both parties respond over next few months to the growing economic disaster will be far more relevant than it is right now. But.. wouldn’t that favor the democrats, since they are allegedly the working class party? Well, in case you haven’t been reading what I have been writing for last few years- the democratic party became the party of credentialed suburbanites + professionals a long time ago. Sure.. some black people vote for them- but that is largely due to historical affiliations among older black people. Neither the democratic party, or its republican equivalent, cares about black people or most white people for that matter.

So what have the democrats have been doing so far?

1] It is no secret that democrats haven’t been doing much, if anything, to help the working class they claim to represent. Most of the two-something trillion dollars in first bailout bill has gone to large business pretending to be small ones. In fact, republican dipshits such as Marco Rubio and Josh Hawley are the reason why it even contains a provision to bail out small business. But it gets worse.. democrats did not seriously try to pass a 2k/month universal unemployment provision in that bill. That number is important because every west-European country, Canada, Australia etc made sure that even their gig and contract workers could easily get at least 2k/ month in addition to generous (75-80%) support for both large and small business to keep their employees on payroll. Now LIEbrals (like MikeCA?) might say that such a measure would not have passed in the senate. Well.. they never tried seriously, so we don’t know. But even if it hadn’t passed, trying hard to pass it would have shown potential voters that the party cared about them- especially important in a presidential election year.

Instead democrats are totally banking on Trump screwing up the response to this pandemic. Yes.. you heard that right. Thy have no other plan to win the 2020 elections other than hope and pray that Orange Man fucks up so badly that people will just vote for their dementia patient aka Joe Biden. To make matters even worse, if that is possible, their response to the crisis has been either cringeworthy or downright repulsive. Some of you might have seen Nancy Pelsoi displaying the expensive contents of her super-expensive refrigerators on national TV at a time when about half the country don’t know whether they can afford food within few weeks and food banks in many cities have been swamped by tens of thousands who had never used such services in the past. Or look at that stupid cunt who is the current governor of Michigan acting like an out-of touch autocrat or the governor of Virgina using this opportunity to push through ‘gun control’ legislation. It is as if democrats at both the national and state level are completely out of touch with the needs and demands of their supposed constituencies.

2] Many of you might have also seen the decrepit MSM giving tons to air time to Andrew Cuomo and to a lesser extent- Gavin Newsom. They are doing so to project both of them, especially the former, as future potential presidential candidates. The only problem is that they are both very mediocre and borderline incompetent leaders with serious electability issues at national level. Don’t believe me? Let us go through their records. Cuomo is a part of a political dynasty which benefited from being in the 2nd most openly corrupt state in USA- after neighboring New Jersey. Andrew’s biggest achievement has been his full throated support for neoliberalism and working with the republican party to keep in his state to maintain that status quo. Did I mention NY is one the most unequal states in this country. As far as his supposed ability to contain this pandemic.. well, it was Cuomo (who against the better judgement of Bill de Blasio) delayed any serious response to the pandemic in NY state by about 2-3 weeks. Under Cuomo, NY reduced its hospital bed count by over 20k in the last few years to build luxury condos and now he also cut Medicaid funding in the most recent state budget.

Gavin Newsom, while not as venally corrupt as Cuomo, is nonetheless a highly problematic potential democratic party leader at national level. From his support of severe ‘gun control’, SJW causes such as trangenderism to being ineffectual at actually solving real problems such as very high levels of homelessness and economic inequality in that state. At best he is a neoliberal who is not as bad as Nancy Pelosi or Joe Biden, assuming the later still knows who he is. But the much bigger problem, as far as 2020 elections are concerned, is how they are acting right now. See.. both are trying to position themselves as ‘resistance’ to Trump, which means opposing everything put forth by Trump- irrespective of the merit of each idea. That is why both are opposed to any concrete and defined plan for reopening the economy in their states. But why would this matter? Well.. because other states, especially those run by republican governors will reopen sooner and while they may initially suffer from outbreaks of SARS-2, their economies won’t be as thoroughly trashed as those of NY and CA. And this will matter come election time.

As I have repeatedly mentioned in my previous posts on this general topic, USA has neither the bureaucratic framework or ideological bent to quickly provide effective levels of financial help to its citizens in times of crisis. Consequently, this shutdown is going to an incredible amount of socio-economic damage to everyone in this country who is not rich, well connected or has a sinecured job. Sure, some will be hurt more than others but even most doctors are seeing their income plummet because of the cancellation of scheduled surgeries, normal medical procedures and reduction in appointments. The same is true for supposedly resilient entities such as universities, municipalities and many more. Even if the government decides to bail them out, under the present set of rules, most of the money will not reach the people it was intended to help (employees, contractors, small business dependent on them etc). In other words, a prolonged shutdown will cause exponentially increasing amounts of damage to economy and those states which are closed for a longer time (to show their resistance to Trump) will inflict the most suffering on their residents. And this will be weaponized by Trump reelection campaign.

3] Talking about the ‘resistance’.. it is an open secret that corporate media and democrats want Trump to fail. To be clear, I am not suggesting Trump is competent- but then again, there is no evidence that his predecessors were any better than him. Sure, they were somewhat “better spoken” in public, but their policies were just as neoliberal, poorly thought out and shitty as his. You might have seen these ‘resistance’ bullshitters convert each press briefing into an adversarial nightmare and constantly question his actions. The problem with such behavior is that it highly counterproductive. Because the corporate media is so openly adversarial to Trump, he can claim false persecution and thus divert attention from this many actions which are actually stupid and shitty. There is a reason why “RussiaGate”, “Mueller Report”, “UkraineGate”, “impeachment” and now this crisis has not had any impact on his popularity. The relentless but totally ineffectual media attacks on Trump are, ironically, what keep his popularity from going down.

It does not help that all the losers clamoring for prolonged shutdowns in media, and on social media, are limo LIEbrals who have enough money and other resources to weather them. These dumbfucks have little, to no, connection or understanding of how the majority of people make a living. This position is going to become increasingly problematic as more and more evidence from other countries will show that specific antibodies to this virus in asymptomatic people (evidence of exposure and recovery) are far more widespread than currently believed- which implies that CFR is significantly less that 1-1.5%. At that point, I predict that these resistance dummies will try to sabotage testing of people for antibodies or claim that “antibodies in recovered patients do not offer protection” because they want to prolong shutdown and cause more economic damage to make Trump lose is reelection bid. Needless to say, such behavior is only going to make Trump and the republicans look like the better option in November for most of the country.

In summary, the reaction of establishment LIEbrals and corporate media to this pandemic is very likely to severely damage the electoral prospects of democratic party in the 2020 elections.

What do you think? Comments?

More Clips of Joe Biden Showing Obvious Symptoms of Senile Dementia

March 9, 2020 4 comments

Here are a couple of YouTube clips about how most mainstream corporate media presstitutes are trying to cover up for Joe Biden’s obvious decline into overt Senile Dementia. Also a couple of the latest Biden brainfarts.. assuming he has one left: Link 1 and Link 2.

Clip # 1: Saagar Enjeti and Ryan Grim talking about Joe Biden’s Dementia.

But this situation is starting to change as Joe Biden has become the choice of the democratic establishment.

Clip # 2: The Jimmy Dore Show about how Fox is starting to attack Joe Biden’s brain “issues”.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 3

March 3, 2020 14 comments

In the previous post of this series, I promised to write about how the results of South Carolina’s democrat primary would be used by the party establishment to try and push the candidacy of an old guy with vascular dementia aka Joe Biden. Yes, you heard that right- it is my opinion that Joe Biden displays symptoms consistent with cerebrovascular dementia. In case you didn’t know, this is a sub-type of senile dementia in which neuronal dysfunction and death is largely caused by micro- and macro- vascular dysfunction in the brain, rather than pathological changes associated with Alzheimer’s Disease. It should be noted that most patients with senile dementia have some combination of cerebrovascular dysfunction and pathological changes seen in Alzheimer’s disease. So what makes me think that Joe Biden’s obvious dementia is of the vascular type?

Well.. due to his medical history. Patients with the more classical version of Alzheimer’s tend to be female and in their late 70s or older. Vascular dementia type pathology, on the other hand, is more common in men- especially those with a history of previous vascular dysfunction, a history of previous traumatic brain injury or prior neurosurgery. As some of you might know, Biden had a couple of surgeries in the late 1980s to repair two particularly nasty aneurysms in his brain. While those surgeries saved his life, it should be noted that somebody with multiple aneurysms (even after repair) is far more likely to develop other cerebrovascular issues later on in their life than somebody who never had them. To quickly summarize, Biden rapid and obvious cognitive decline since 2012-2015 is most likely the result of (predominantly) vascular dementia.

But why does this matter and what does it have to do with future of democratic primary? As it turns out a lot. Let me explain. See.. Biden has gone down in the polls since his entry into the race for two main reasons. Firstly, the Bernie’s campaign cleverly dug up his long record of support for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. But even more importantly, because Biden’s staff kept his media or public appearances to a bare minimum because they rightly understood that he was displaying too many symptoms of dementia for potential voters to look the other way. This is also why rich donors were willing to put far more money behind other turncoat candidates such as McKinsey Buttboy and Lying Liz. This is why DNC’s original plan to deny Bernie the nomination- which was based on flooding the field with many candidates who were expected to take votes away from Bernie- but not Biden backfired, spectacularly.

To be fair, Bloomberg’s unanticipated entry into the race and his spending over 500 million on advertising to project himself as the centrist alternative was the killer blow for Biden- which is ironic since Bloomberg was trying to stop Bernie, not Biden. I could write multiple posts on why McKinsey Buttboy and Amy Binderthrower got steamrolled in the primaries, but they are no longer relevant. The very short version is that the number of partisan democrats who want 90s-style centrists is declining as more babyboomers keep dying. You might have seen the grifting piece of shit aka Barack Obama was able to get Buttboy and Binderthrower to drop out yesterday and endorse Biden. As I have written in the past Obama is the political equivalent of Bill Cosby and his presidency was a disaster for establishment democrats, which makes their continued worship of him even more pathetic. I am sure MikeCA will disagree with this assessment.

Since we cannot change the past, so let us talk about the future- specifically my predictions about how the democratic primary will evolve. FYI- I am not concerned about the results of Super Tuesday voting since Obama’s last minute scam does not change the overall direction of this contest. Having said that it changes something further down the line. Let me explain..

1] Any person who is not an establishment democrat or partisan worshiper (MikeCA?) will tell you that the party has experienced a pretty steep decline in many parts of the country within the past decade. To be fair it has been on a generally downward path for the past twenty years, but it is undeniable that this slow-motion collapse sped up after Obama took office in early-2009. But why? Well.. the short answer is that Obama got elected by pretending to a populist reformer, but ended up continuing and intensifying neoliberal policies once in office. There is a reason why it took the incredible ineptitude of Trump for democrats, in 2018, to even partially reverse their decade-long streak of losses. However, thus far, no political figure of any fame has openly said that Obama was a shitty president and the proximal cause of Trump’s rise.

Even Bernie Sanders, whose private critique of Obama is well known, has so far not criticized the later openly. However the dumb meddling that Obama pulled off yesterday is almost certain to make Bernie’s campaign reconsider their previous reticence to criticize him. This is especially likely since they now understand that older black voters in the south are not going to vote for a Jew under any condition. Also, after Super Tuesday there are no big states full of older black voters coming up for some time- if at all. So expect the Bernie campaign, especially surrogates to start going after the many problematic legacies of Obama’s presidency. While Bernie would have had to do this at a later stage anyway, Obama’s meddling in the primary removes the one reason they had not done so till now.

2] While Lying Liz has pretended to be a progressive, nobody with half-a-brain and even a brief overview of her career believed that lie. However, Bernie foolishly refrained from criticizing her once the election campaign began. Given her actions since then, especially in the past month- I am guessing that many in his campaign were eager to tear her a new one. Now that she has publicly admitted her role as a DNC-appointed spoiler for progressive voters- expect the Bernie campaign to go after her. And they will have to, because there is no realistic option to that course of action. Of course, Bernie could be stupid (or cynical) enough to not challenge her bullshit- but realistically we are all going to gothere, whether he likes it or not.

3] Bernie has also refrained from any attacks on Joe Biden’s cognitive ability or talking about how the Biden family enriched themselves because of the various political offices he held. While this was kinda acceptable when Biden was slowly sinking in the polls and the centrist vote was split, they just cannot afford to do this now. While it is far more likely that most of the attacking on these issues will be done by Bernie surrogates, sooner or later things will reach a point when Biden’s obvious dementia will be an issue for open public discussion. Once again, even if Bernie does not want to there- he has no recourse. More importantly, his second-order surrogates are already going after Biden’s cognitive status. And you can bet that Trump is going to push those two narratives on a massive scale, even if Bernie does not. One way or the other, both issues will enter the domain of political campaigning in a big way. The general direction, as they say, is set.

It is of course possible that Bernie does not do any of this and ends up losing like he did in 2016. However doing so in 2020 carries very different implications from doing it four years ago. In the first campaign, he was the relatively unknown newcomer who was talking about ideas that were popular but almost never mentioned by other politicians. 2020 is likely the last time he will run for the nomination and presidency. To put it another way, if he is not seen as putting everything in this campaign, he will lose the following he has built and have no legacy- at least of the type he seems to crave. He has no option but to go on the offensive now..

I am curious to see how Bloomberg performs in the Super Tuesday states today. Will he keep sucking votes from Biden? Will he stay in the race after tomorrow. Who knows? Will write about my analysis of today’s primaries in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 2

February 28, 2020 6 comments

In the previous post of this series, I wrote about the ongoing shitshow of Iowa’s 2020 democratic primary caucus and the better-run New Hampshire primary. I also wrote a bit about the future- specifically how only Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg have any future prospects after Nevada and South Carolina. Since then, a few things have happened. Firstly, the Iowa’s shitshow still hasn’t been resolved. Yes, you is correct- it is still going on. Many of you might also know that Bernie won a resounding victory in the Nevada Caucus and ended up getting almost twice the number of votes as his nearest opponent- as well as the majority of delegates from that state. We also had the pleasure of watching mini-Mike Bloomberg implode in front of a large national audience in his first appearance at a debate. And he did not show any signs of improvement in his more recent second appearance. Of course, he is still spending dozens of million dollars per day on TV and web advertisements- which I guess is good news for the people he is currently employing.

So let us begin by talking about Bloomberg. In my opinion, he has no realistic chance of winning the presidential election against Trump. Here is why.. For starters, he has zero public presence and he just cannot help coming across as an out of touch elitist billionaire with serious personal insecurities. Even the character of Mr. Burns in ‘The Simpsons’ is far more likable that Bloomberg. In contrast, even though Trump might be worth only a couple of billion, he has a much better understanding of how average people, live, think and most importantly- want to see. It does not help that Mike Bloomberg has as many skeletons in his closet as Trump, and nowhere near the charm of Trump to let potential voters ignore them. Here is an example to help you understand what I am getting at. Ever wonder why Harvey Weinstein and Bill Cosby ended up in jail for what they did to women over these years, but equally lecherous but handsome or otherwise desirable male actors and musicians almost always get a free pass.

Yes, the public will accept and forgive people who are assholes if they are charming and open about their behavior. Many of you might remember how democrat idiots thought that the release of that “pussy grab” tape would sink Trump’s 2016 campaign. But it did not and was pretty easy to understand why- if you were not a credentialed incestuous circle-jerker. But in case a few of you don’t, let me explain. See.. the personal morality of politicians was an issue only as long as most people had a prosperous and stable life. That is why the Monica Lewinsky scandal could have only become a big issue in the late 1990s- and even then it did not hurt Bill Clinton’s image to any appreciable extent. More importantly, people stop caring about that sort of bullshit once socio-economic conditions start deteriorating. I bet you that people would have looked the other way had Obama openly cheated on his wife with multiple white women, IF he had delivered on economically populist policies. Most people care far more about outcomes than image.

Don’t believe me? Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008, but only 65.9 million in 2012- in spite of the population of USA increasing by a few million during that time-span. And you know why.. because he failed to deliver on the populist stuff he vaguely hinted at during the 2008 electoral campaign. Even though MikeCA won’t like to hear this, the rise of Trump is best understood as the logical consequence of the unwillingness and inability of Obama to deliver on his pre-election populist promises. In fact, Obama would have lost the 2012 election if Republicans had fielded even a moderately populist candidate instead of a smug corporate asshole aka Mitt Romney. To make a long story short, corporatist candidates such as Bloomberg and even Biden (let alone Warren and Buttboy) will lose to a fake populist such as Trump in the general election.

Of course, this hasn’t stopped the incompetent democratic establishment from hatching ever more hilarious plans to stop Sanders via procedural bullshit. And mark my words, they will try to pull of such a stupid scheme even if Sanders wins over 50% of the delegates. Yes.. I am serious about that scenario and to understand why, please read the linked article above to see the incredible amount of magical thinking these idiots are capable of. One noteworthy example include recruiting Obama’s wife and some no-name senator who did not even participate in this primary as the unity nominees. At this stage, I would not be surprised if they tried to rope in Hillary Clinton and her forgettable VP candidate from 2016 as the nominees. To put it another way, they would rather have four more years of Trump than a democratic nominee who is not “centrist”, in spite of the failure of candidates such as Al Gore, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton in the past few presidential elections.

I am sure that MikeCA will jump in to tell us how this is all wrong and that the democratic establishment actually cares about the plight of average voters. Newsflash- it does not, and has not given a fuck about non-professional class voters since the mid 1970s. Since we are already close to a thousand words, I will wrap this post now. In the next part, I will talk about the results of the South Caroline primary, Joe Biden’s cognitive status and why Bernie towing the line of democratic establishment on cultural issues is such a bad idea.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 1

February 13, 2020 8 comments

Regular readers of my blog might remember that I wrote a few posts in 2015 and 2016 about my thoughts on the 2016 presidential election- party primaries as well as actual electoral campaign. Not to toot my horn too much (again), but I correctly predicted that Trump would win republican party nomination within a few weeks of entering the race and how he would defeat Hilary in the general election as early as February 2016. More importantly, I never changed my opinion about both outcomes based on the latest bullshit narratives and lies pumped out by decrepit and dying corporate media outlets such as NYT, WP, CNN, MSNBC etc. As it turned out, my assessment was more correct than every single one of those incestuous presstitutes.. also known as “credentialed journalists”.. who were (and still are) each paid millions of dollars per year by those outlets. I can sense that MikeCA will get triggered by this paragraph as I am writing it.. lol.

I initially considered not writing about this quadrennial election cycle, because I know it is going to be a much bigger shitshow than the previous one. But after some more thought, and one small trial balloon, have decided to write about it. I will, however, not focus on every shitshow and fake controversy along the way because there will be tons of them. Furthermore, I write as a hobby and despite of what MikeCA might want to believe, I have not made a single cent out of writing this blog or any other. With that out of the way, let me recommend a new and interesting article by Matt Taibbi which summarizes a possibility which I also increasingly see as being very likely. The very short version of that article is as follows: Bernie will win the party nomination outright or get a plurality of delegates in 2020 for the same reasons Trump did in 2016. This is likely since Bernie, like Trump, has a very devoted and significant core of voter support while those opposing him are competing against each other to win the votes of those who are fine with the status quo.

Readers might have noticed how dying corporate media outlets have been busy pumping up each establishment candidate in succession only to see them deflate in a spectacular fashion and then move on to the next one. First they were trying to sell the inevitability of Biden, then it was the summer of Liz Warren, the fall of McKinsey Buttboy and now the rise of that woman who abuses her staff. As things stand today, Biden’s primary campaign, like the candidate, is rapidly falling apart after getting walloped in Iowa and New Hampshire. Lying Harvard lady.. I mean, Elizabeth Warren.. is doing no better, especially given the time and money she invested in both states. McKinsey Buttboy is trying to pull a Juan Guaido even though he has close to zero support among non-white and non-affluent white voters. Did I mention that Pyscho boss-lady has no realistic path beyond New Hampshire. And we haven’t even talked about the effect of the two billionaires aka Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg’s campaigns in later states.

Let us first talk about the recent Iowa primary.. well, the parts other than the purposely botched caucus and McKinsey Buttboy declaring victory before even a single partial result was declared. You might have heard that the aggregate turnout at that state caucus this year was lower than 2020. Well, the total turnout this year was higher than 2016 but lower than 2008. The turnout of youth voters (as a percentage of total) was however slightly higher than 2008 and much higher than 2016. While this is not especially good, it is certainly not bad- especially for a party which has blown so much political capital because of their obsession with the bullshit RussiaGate and UkraineGate investigations and predictably unsuccessful attempt at removing Trump through impeachment. I mean.. you cannot seriously expect record-breaking turnout at the primary of a party whose establishment is pushing nonsense that many of their potential voters don’t give a flying fuck about. And they kept changing the caucus site locations till the day before primary.

Moving on to the New Hampshire democrat primary, the turnout this year was significantly higher than 2016 and will probably exceed 2008. Also, unlike the shitshow of Iowa’s primary the one in New Hampshire went well and results were available later that night. I probably do not have to tell you that Bernie got the most votes, just like he did in Iowa. Sure, the victory margin was less than 2016 because a field with over eight candidates (at least five major ones) has different dynamics than an election with just two. In my opinion, Elizabeth Warren was the biggest loser coming out of that primary since her two consecutive poor performances and tepid support in subsequent states ensures that her campaign (barring some Deus Ex Machina twist) is, for all practical purposes, dead. Even though Amy Klobuchar, aka Psycho boss-woman, did better than expected- her campaign is also dead since she has really poor numbers in upcoming states.

Moving on to McKinsey Buttboy, who was the corporate media darling before Pyscho boss-lady, his campaign will probably hand around till South Carolina or more likely super Tuesday- when it becomes glaringly obvious to his backers that he has no chance. While Biden has been utterly humiliated due to his poor showing in the first two primaries, I would not consider his campaign dead until he is defeated or flounders badly in Nevada and South Carolina. While it is true that his campaign does not have much money and big donors are increasingly skeptical of his chances, older Bill Cosby-worshiping blacks still haven’t deserted him en masse yet. We also have to factor in that bland neoliberal billionaires such as Tom Steyer are pretty competitive in the stupid.. I mean southern.. states. Did I mention that Bloomberg has also setup some committee which large donors can join for free if they pledge to not support any other candidates?

As some have already said, it increasingly appears that the democratic primary will be between Bernie and Bloomberg. Sure.. something totally unexpected can change this building trend but the simple fact is that Bernie has (by far) the largest grassroots support and capability to raise funds from them while Bloomberg is among the ten richest men in USA. One more thing.. the democratic party will lose 2020 presidential election if it is stupid enough to choose Bloomberg as their candidate for reasons I will explain in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?

Recent Iowa Democrat Caucus was the 737-MAX of Electoral Primaries

February 5, 2020 22 comments

By now, all of you might must have heard that the democrat party presidential primary caucus for 2020 in Iowa was an epic shitshow. At the time of writing this brief post, the “official” results had not even crossed the 75% mark (74.79% to be precise)– and it has been almost three days after the shitshow was over. It is clear to me that the Iowa democratic party (IDP) is trying to delay the final results as long as possible to make sociopathic Pete Buttboy look like the “winner”, even though it is obvious that Bernie Sanders won it. It goes without saying that dying and discredited corporate media outlets such as CNN and MSNBC are also fully into this scam. To that end, the DNC and its local people at the IDP are intentionally delaying announcing the results of specific large caucus locations known to be very favorable to Bernie Sanders.

Have a look at this post from the Intercept about how the last-minute “App” developed for official data collection in this state caucus was a product of democratic establishment insiders. Read about how the specific person behind the appropriately (and ironically) named ‘Shadow’ app was a controversial and very pro-establishment figure in the democratic party. Did I mention that this person, a certain Tara McGowan, was a big supporter of Pete Buttboy’s presidential campaign? It is also rather interesting that she is married to Michael Halle, a political consultant who worked as a lead organizer in Iowa for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and is a senior strategist for Pete Buttboy. Incompetent credentialed losers live and breathe in small incestuous circles, don’t they?

But it gets better. The team of incompetent credentialed insider losers who were responsible for this app were neither software experts or good at anything beyond deep-kissing establishment democrat ass. They were all part of Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful 2016 presidential campaign.. you know, the one here she lost a election to a lecherous reality-show host. Of course, there has been no official explanation as to why a small team of incompetent political operatives were paid hundreds of thousands to develop an app that nobody needed and which was not tested under anything approaching real-life conditions- if at all. Oh.. and the backup phone-based system to communicate results to party headwaters was mysteriously not working properly on that day.

But it gets even better. Sociopath Pete Buttboy’s campaign was a very recent donor to the make-believe “corporation” which made the shitty app that was unnecessary and misreported numbers- if it even worked. While there are those who attribute this still ongoing shitshow to terminal institutional incompetence on the part of democratic establishment, it is my opinion that more than a little malice was also involved. Michael Tracey makes a very good argument that the Iowa Caucus results should be voided, since any results that come out of this epic clusterfuck with oodles of malice are unlikely to be trusted by most people- especially those voting in upcoming democratic primaries. Did I mention that Iowa caucus turnout was mediocre this year, though younger than previous years. Apparently, the Trump impeachment bullshit isn’t selling in Iowa.

The fact that democrat party establishment could screw up their own primary caucus in the same week as they failed to get Trump removed from office tells you all you need to know about the state of that party. Then again, what can you expect from a party which (just like its republican counterpart) is still living in a world that no longer exists. I am sure we will hear more about how this fiasco went down by this weekend and it likely wont be the last one in 2020.

What do you think? Comments?