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Posts Tagged ‘2020’

ShitShow of Jan 6th in Washington, D.C. was Entertaining.. Wasn’t it?

January 6, 2021 16 comments

As many of you know, today’s pro-Trump protests in DC took some rather interesting turns, both literally and metaphorically. Here is a quick montage of the more infamous photographs from the shitshow floating on various social media sites. While these protests caused little real physical damage, the reputational damage to LIEbral scam promoted by this country in rest of world is considerable. These protests are also a teaser trailer of the sort of stuff we will see in 2021, because of the consequences of COVID-19 related shutdowns such as persistent high unemployment,small-business closures and bankruptcies etc.

What do you think? Comments?

Quick Thoughts on the Ongoing Aftermath of 2020 Election Shitshow

November 9, 2020 24 comments

Here is a post which I have been meaning to write for past few days, but kept delaying due to ongoing developments in that area and being busy with work. By now, you know that the MSM has declared Dementia Joe as the “victor” in the 2020 presidential election. The way I see it, this shitshow is not over till at least December 14th of this year when the the electoral college meets to cast their votes. Realistically, this show will go on even past inauguration day 2021.. into 2022 and 2024. So welcome to Hell and get comfy as you are going to here for a while.

So here are some of my very quick thoughts on the post-election shitshow, till now..

1] One of the most surprising outcomes of this election was that Trump got a few million more votes in 2020, than he did in 2016. Orange Man got more votes in 2020 than Obama got in his historical victory in 2008. Sure.. the population of this country has grown since 2008, but let me remind you that Obama in 2012 fell short of his 2008 numbers as did HRC in 2016. What makes this truly unique is that he did so in spite of the media demonizing him for past 5 years, all those failed and fake investigations in addition to his sloppy handling of response to COVID-19 pandemic. Trump getting over 71 million votes was the biggest surprise of 2020.

2] On a related note, Democrats lost seats in the house, didn’t flip any state legislatures or governorships and are almost certain to not gain their long coveted senate majority. In my opinion, this is the second most surprising outcome of 2020, since many were guessing that all of the alleged public anger against Trump would somehow translate into democrats flipping multiple senate seats, increasing their margin in house and gaining at the state level. But they did not, and is a huge warning signal to that party. Did I also mention that Democrats did not flip Texas and Florida. Which brings me to the third surprising outcome of this election.

3] Trump and Republicans actually gained non-white voters from the working class. While it is still too early to give exact numbers, it appears that Trump got the highest percentage of non-white voters for any republican president in past few decades. He also received the highest percentage of Hispanic votes of any modern Republican president, including.. I kid you not.. from Hispanic-majority counties bordering Mexico. Far less surprisingly, most of the increase in votes for Democrats came from affluent suburban and predominantly white areas. And while Trump did not win some reliably Democrat-voting coastal states such as CA, NY etc.. he did increase the number of Republican votes in those states compared to 2016.

4] The supposedly “scientific” pre-election polls were off by huge and inexcusable margins. After the 2016 debacle all these polling agencies had promised to do a far better job this time around as they had claimed to have learnt their lesson and corrected their mistakes. Turns out, this was all complete bullshit! The “errors” in state and national pre-election polls in 2020 were much higher than in 2016.In all ‘swing’ states, even the final polls were consistently off by over 10%. There are two explanations for this debacle- either polling agencies learned nothing from 2016 or they were involved in a very deliberate and coordinated operation to suppress Trump voters. And they failed.. again.

5] Which brings us to the next point.. aka the vote-counting operations in some ‘swing’ states and Democrat-run cities were shady as fuck. You might have noticed that Orange Man won all supposed ‘swing’ states which counted their votes on same day such as TX, FL and OH. But in ‘swing’ states with some democratic control, mysterious large batches of votes kept getting “discovered” and counted during early morning hours. This was especially obvious in cities under control of Democratic party. While this country has always been intentionally deficient at conducting free and fair elections, vote-counting during the 2020 election was the shadiest we have seen in living memory.

Sure.. the sudden increase of mail-in and absentee ballots was guaranteed to cause some problems, but I cannot help notice that certain states such as FL and TX handled the situation very well. Others such as WI, MI and PA did not. The deliberate slowing down of vote-counting by certain states such as NV and AZ also does not inspire confidence in the results of this election. To make a long story short, regardless of what the dying mouthpieces of MSM and internet monopolies are promoting, majority of people in this country seem to think that the elections were fixed- at least in certain ‘swing’ states.

6] Because of the very obvious shadiness of how this election was conducted in certain key states and Trump’s unwillingness to play along with certain elite bullshit such as “norms”- it is almost certain that this will be litigated for a long time, especially in the public mind. Let me remind you that partisan idiots such as MikeCA still believe that “Russia” and “Putin” stole the 2016 election for Trump without any significant amount of proof to support this accusation. You can bet that the next four years will see a similar but far larger movement centered around the idea that establishment Democrats stole the 2020 election- but this time there will be much more circumstantial evidence to support that belief.

And Trump will fan the flames of this movement since he is not a dickless neoliberal such as Al Gore. It does not help that Biden and company have already confirmed that they want to go back to the same sad identity and “wokeness” based neoliberal bullshit politics which pissed voters off and got Trump elected in 2016. Also, they have shown no willingness or possess the ability to pass large bailouts for average people. In other words, the massive economic and unemployment crisis caused by response to COVID-19 pandemic is going to get much worse- especially if they follow whatever bullshit “scientific” advice they are getting from their bunch of credentialed fuckwits.

I would not rule out even more unpleasant election-related “surprises in next two months, given that this is 2020.

What do you think? Comments?

Some Brief Thoughts About Outcome of 2020 Presidential Election

November 3, 2020 29 comments

A few weeks ago, I wanted to do a short series on the likely outcome of 2020 election. But a combination of being busy with other things and the unusually high levels of uncertainty about this election resulted in my repeatedly delaying it. Since today is November 3, I thought it was a good idea to post a small and very brief version of my thoughts about the likely outcome of this election. As you will see, the levels of uncertainty are still very high.

1] Over the past few weeks, many of you have seen “polls” proclaiming that Dementia Joe has a 10, 11 or even 16 point “lead” over Orange Man Here is a short list of problem with such polls, beginning with the fact that Dementia Joe is at barely 50% in almost single one of them. In other words, all of his supposed “lead” comes from fewer people telling pollsters that they will vote for Trump. This is important because if the electorate had really got tired of Trump, it would be 60-40 or 55-45, rather than the 50-41 or 49-44, we are seeing right now.

2] Related to the problem discussed in previous point is that this race, even by those “polls”, is far narrower in the so-called ‘swing’ states than at the national level. Some of you might remember that all these “polls” and even exit polls showed Trump losing to Hillary in 2016 in these same states. The vote count showed otherwise. Then there is the issue of voters who might not like Trump as a person but will vote for him just because he is on the Republican ticket. We cannot also discount the possibility of some Trump voters are either not answering polls or being untruthful to them. And this matters a lot in those states.

3] Since presidential elections in USA are decided by the electoral college rather than number of popular votes, ‘swing’ states have mattered far more in every presidential election since 1984. To put it another way, the election is far closer than most Democrats want to believe. The way I see it, this is still pretty close to a 50-50 thing.. UNLESS there are large changes in the final turnout- something we won’t know till polls close today evening.

4] The massive increase in mail-in votes and absentee ballots caused by COVID-19 pandemic has made it much harder to estimate the likely final turnout. While it is certainly possible that we will see a robust turnout on election day leading to a record final turnout, it is equally possible that the final number might be not significantly different from 2016 (adjusted for population). This matters a lot since significant percentage of people don’t vote during most elections. We could see anything from a tight election, a blowout for Biden or Trump gaining new supporters among from traditional non-voter whites, Hispanics and younger black voters.

5] To make matters more interesting, there is the possibility of many mail-in ballots being disqualified due to a number of stupid laws and rules. We are also likely to see lots of litigation if preliminary vote counts are either delayed or uncomfortably close in ‘swing’ states. There is a very real possibility that what happens after November 3, 2020 will make the infamous 2000 election look quaint and civilized by comparison. I would not discount the possibility of armed clashes between Trump supporters and Democrats. Hopefully, it won’t get much worse than a few isolated incidents. Fingers crossed..

6] If this election turns into anything other than a blowout for Biden, it is far more likely that Trump will retain power- whether it is by winning the electoral college via ‘swing’ states, prolonged and large-scale litigation, some combination of intimation and civil unrest or all of the above. As seen through the lens of Obama’s unsuccessful attempts to nominate Merrick Garland, democrat acquiescence to Mitch McConnell filling up record numbers of federal judge positions with conservatives to their non-existent resistance over to his most recent supreme court nomination- it is clear that establishment Democrats are all talk and no action.

Let’s see what happens tonight, and in the next few days..

What do you think? Comments?

The Dumpster Fire of 2020 Election is Eerily Reminiscent of 2016

October 20, 2020 12 comments

As I have written in more than one recent post, the 2020 election and its aftermath is almost guaranteed to be a dumpster fire of epic proportions. Then again, where else but in this “exceptional demockracy” do the two major political parties nominate a narcissistic used-car salesman to run against a guy in the early stages of senile dementia. While some features of this clusterfuck are unprecedented (at least in the previous 80-90 years), others are.. well.. strangely familiar. One could even make the case that the ongoing slow-motion train accident has more than a few similarities to its immediate predecessor, also known as the then unprecedented clusterfuck.. I mean electoral campaign and election.. of 2016. Here is why.

1] The first similarity between 2016 and 2020 comes down to the so-called “independent” and “objective” pre-election “polls”, or as I like to call them- sad and increasingly futile attempts to manipulate voter turnout for political ends. Some of you might remember that almost every single “poll” during the 2016 election cycle had Trump trailing Hillary by at least a few points. Moreover the purported “gap” between them supposedly increased to double digits after the release of those ‘Access Hollywood’ tapes in early October 2016. Even “exit polls” performed on election days showed Trump losing to Hillary in areas and states that he eventually won.

So why were all those polls, which had predicted previous electoral results, so wrong? Well.. I can think of many reasons such as people screening their calls, not telling the truth, bad data sampling and a ton of other innocent explanations. But given that many were more accurate in previous years, one has to consider the possibility that election “polls” are designed and performed to create and support a bullshit narrative rather than report the facts. And this would not be unprecedented. Consider the so-called “free” media in west. Have you noticed that almost all MSM outlets and presstitues are either grovelling stenographers for elites or manufactured opposition who are occasionally allowed to report on minor scandals.

Remember that WaterGate was a mouse fart compared to far bigger and consequential stories in that same time window such as the atrocious conduct of Vietnam War prior to Tet offensive, secret carpet-bombing bombing of Laos, support for ethnic genocide in Indonesia and much more. Remember when MSM and “respected” presstitutes kept telling you that Saddam Hussein had WMDs and connections with 9/11 hijackers? Remember when they also told you that Bin Laden had an amazing mountain lair like some villain in a James Bond movie. Or how about them telling you that the leftist leaders of Venezuela and Bolivia had no real popular support. I could go on but my point is that many people are increasingly unwilling to believe that make-believe bullshit narratives peddled by these incompetent but “credentialed” losers.

2] You might have heard Dementia Joe’ supporters tell you that they might win Texas and Georgia this time around. Funny thing.. Hillary and her supporters said something very similar in 2016. I distinctly remember them boasting how they were likely to win those two states because of “demographic changes” or some other bullshit. But wait.. Obama said something very similar to that in 2008. So how have things worked out thus far? Well.. in Texas, the percentage of non-voters, especially among the state’s Hispanic population, has remained stubbornly high. As far as Georgia is concerned, Democrats have been pushing that same bullshit dream since at least 2008, and yet every single election brings them no closer to actually winning that state. Could it happen this time? Well.. it is 2020, but I would not put down my money for making that bet.

The more interesting question is- why do Democrats think they will “eventually” win those states? Well.. according to them, the racially diverse younger generation is less conservative than their parents and are therefore somehow magically going to vote for Democrats. But why should that be the case? After all, Democrats have done nothing to address the many problems faced by younger generations such as huge student loans, high cost of housing, poorly paid and unstable jobs, nearly unaffordable quality childcare and a host of other systemic problems related to rise of neoliberalism in west. It is no secret that centrist and center-left political parties who are more obsessed with LGBTQ rights and proper pronouns rather than needs of working class have done poorly in elections over past decade.

3] Moving on.. remember how in 2016, every “respectable” MSM outlet and presstitute was constantly predicting that Trump was going to lose big and become a pariah in Republican party afterwards? So.. how has that “prediction” worked out? Need I remind you that Trump still has an over 90% approval rating among partisan Republican voters- and this after he screwed the response to COVID-19 pandemic. To be fair, so did the much more “respectable” leaders of every other major western nation. But this elite fetish for “respectability” is deeper and more comical than you might think. Consider the types of campaign ads run by Hillary in 2026. Almost 2/3 rds of them were about the poor character of Trump. How did that work out? Of course. Biden’s handlers have learnt nothing from 2016.

You might have noticed that most of their 2020 campaign ads are about how Trump is a uniquely bad character and how Biden is “normal” and “qualified”. It is as if they hired the same “campaign experts” hired by Hillary in 2016- and they very likely did. Very few of their ads give concrete and feasible sounding plans about how a Democratic administration would actually improve the lives of those who voted for them. I guess, they are being unintentionally honest- because they have zero intention of changing the status quo which led to that Orange Buffoon being elected in the first place. Isn’t that a brilliant plan? Just like their non-existent plan to fully reopen the economy, compensate tens of millions workers properly, save all those small business.. you know, actually get out of this self-inflicted hole.

4] You kept hearing “news” about how Trump’s 2020 campaign is falling apart, republican politician are deserting him and and how people in it are busy looking for alternate post-election gigs. Funny thing.. I remember MSM outlets pushing the exact same stories in 2016. It is if they cannot even recycle made-up stories without using the same scripts. Says a lot about their real levels of competence.. doesn’t it? But somehow these same presstitutes do not see eerie the similarity between lack of enthusiasm for Biden in 2020 to that for Hillary in 2016. Or the unusual similarities between the almost complete lack of public enthusiasm for Kamala Harris in 2020 to Tim Kaine in 2016. Isn’t it also interesting that both Biden and Hillary drastically cut down on their public appearances in final weeks of election because Democrats were so sure of their “inevitable triumph”.

There are many other odd and eerie similarities between the clusterfuck of 2020 campaign and election to their direct predecessors from 2016, but we are already past a thousand words. I might write a followup part, depending on the comments.

What do you think? Comments?

Recent Thoughts on Possible Outcomes for Upcoming 2020 Election

October 10, 2020 12 comments

As many of you know, over the past two months I have posted articles which bring up certain unsettling possibilities regarding outcome of 2020 election. These have included the possibility of Trump somehow cancelling or sabotaging conduct of that election, neither Trump nor Biden conceding afterwards and whether any “winner” will be seen as legitimate. If you have been following one of my twitter accounts, you also know that I have repeatedly expressed serious concerns whether this election and its aftermath will cause some serious and likely irreversible damage to the socio-economic-political status quo in this country. To be fair, it was looking pretty bad even before the COVID-19 clusterfuck- specifically the thoughtless and moronic response to the pandemic than the virus itself. But ya.. the highly ineffectual and disjointed response to COVID-19 pandemic has made an already shitty situation so much more worse.

With that in mind, let us talk about possible outcomes of the 2020 election, starting with the most obvious.. and ya, none of them are good.

1] At this point, barring a miracle of some sort, it is almost certain that the “results” of 2020 election will be litigated to a level we have never seen. The 2020 primaries have already given us a preview of how chaotic and contentious elections with heavy percentage of ‘mail in’ ballots can go.. and most of those clusterfucks occurred in so-called ‘blue’ states. Given that Trump and Republicans are already trying very hard to reduce and reject votes from areas in ‘swing’ states with large number of loyal Democrat voters, you can be assured that it will get rather ugly after November 3. But wait.. it could get worse as Democrats are also going to try to disqualify mail-in ballots from predominantly Republican areas in those ‘swing’ states. Now add in the possibility.. certainty.. that Trump calls upon his armed constituency of voters in those states to stop ‘those Democrats from stealing the election’. FYI- I am not the only person who thinks this chain of events could lead to some.. interesting outcomes.

2] Now let us talk about a much less discussed. but very realistic possibility which should give nightmares to Democrats- if they actually wanted to win. You might have noticed that many recent “polls” by MSM outlets and establishment institutions are giving Dementia Joe a 10.. 15.. or even 16 % lead over the Tangerine Idiot. Of course, once you look at their methods, specifically the percentages of each voter pool they sampled as well as Biden never breaking past 52% in most of these “polls”, it becomes obvious that they serve the same purpose as those released by these same outlets a couple of weeks before November 8, 2016. It is about creating a fake narrative and trying to suppress voter turnout for Trump- which they tried unsuccessfully four years ago. But Democrats and their media butt-boys do not want to learn anything from their failures of 2016. Having said that, this strategy is far more dangerous in 2020 than in 2016, and here is why.

A lot of people who claim to support Dementia Joe and promise to vote for him election.. are what we might call.. very soft supporters who have no enthusiasm for their candidate. To put it bluntly, if they are convinced or have an excuse to not vote for Dementia Joe, it is very likely that many of them might not do so. Publishing fake polls which show Biden “winning” by 10-16% is actually the perfect way for Democrats to suppress turnout of their own base. I can bet you that Dementia Joe is going to receive far fewer votes from young Black, Hispanics and even educated white supporters than he might otherwise simply because these fake “polls” provide them an excuse to not vote for him. In contrast, Trump’s supporters are far more enthusiastic and actually believe they have something to lose if Trump loses election. Just like 2016, these fake polls generated by idiot Democrat apparatchiks are going to drive up his turnout of both mail-in as well in-person voters.

3] It is no secret that nominating a guy with obvious dementia and neoliberal policies has not exactly electrified the younger set of voters. As some of you might recall, Democrats have long had this silly idea about how the changing racial and educational profile of the younger bunch of voters is going to magically give them a permanent majority. As you also might know, this belief hasn’t worked for the past 12 years.. which hasn’t stopped Democrats from believing in it even more fervently. The 2020 election might deal this belief a particularly cruel blow. It is no secret that the ill-advised shutdowns in response to COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in levels of unemployment beyond anything we have seen since early 1930s- an we are talking about real levels of unempleoyment, which far exceed what you see in government statistics. Anyway.. the groups which have been most hurt by this shutdown are the young (under-40s) with the profile that Democrats imagine will give endless electoral victories.

Except that it is now far less likely to occur and here is why.. You might have noticed that Democrats are very pro-lockowns, especially of the endless variety, without having the ability or willingness to adequately compensate the victims. Between endlessly repeating mindless drivel such as “believe the science”, “believe the experts” and not having a realistic plan for going back to normal, they have achieved what Republicans could have only dreamed. I am referring to the simple, if inconvenient fact, that they have made voting Republican (or not voting Democrat) the only realistic choice of those who want to open up the economy as soon as possible. Way to go.. dumbfucks! It does not help that Biden has especially poor support among the under-40 segment of Black and Hispanic voters. The points mentioned in 2] and 3] are why I think the race will far closer than many Democrats want to believe.

4] When there is is a close electoral race in a highly polarized political environment such as the one we live in today, things can go bad- and this before we factor Trump in the equation. Rest assured that Trump and Republicans are going to go to unprecedented levels of cheating to win this election. What makes the Trump factor so chaotic is that it is entirely within bounds of possibility that his diehard supporters who number in tens of millions and are armed will likely support him to levels unimaginable for other Republican candidates. In other words, I would be so not surprised if we start seeing armed groups clash with less armed groups all over country in aftermath of election. While I do not foresee a full-blown civil war, large disturbances and chronic armed clashes of the type seen in Ukraine, Pakistan etc are entirely within the realms of possibility.

Let me know what you think. I have some even more dire scenarios for the weeks leading to election and in its immediate aftermath- and all of them are fairly plausible.

What do you think? Comments?

When Life Starts Imitating Art: The Sep 2020 Movie Edition

September 26, 2020 Leave a comment

Since I am feeling a bit lazy today again.. here is a spur of the moment post that was in my draft folder for past few weeks. As some of you remember, about three months ago, I had published another post with a similar title that highlighted the similarities between ongoing riots and some interesting clips from movies in recent past. In it there was a clip from the 2005 movie adaptation of the Alana Moore graphic comic ‘V for Vendetta‘. Over the next couple of weeks I noticed yet another interesting similarity between that movie and the world of 2020.

So here is some background for understanding what I am going to talk about.. In the graphical comic book version of that story, the rise of the ulra-religious, right-wing and fascistic ‘Norsefire’ political party comes about in the aftermath of a limited nuclear war which devastated USA, USSR and a few other countries. The movie in contrast, traces the rise of that party to the aftermath of a deliberately engineered virus pandemic. To make a long story short, some rich members of that party fund the creation and release of a virus that kills almost 100k people in UK to create fear, chaos and panic among public which allows them to win the upcoming election.

After the election of that party, a company owned by some ‘Norsefire’ member suddenly finds a cure and within a few months they frame, arrest and execute a few people for allegedly doing what they themselves did to the people of their own country. If you think that all of this is a bit too similar to what we are seeing in 2020, you are not alone. Feel free to open to open the clips in another window and read recent YouTube to them. It is amazing how accurate the movie was at predicting how all the FUD created by pandemic would be used to curtail or eliminate civil liberties, while simultaneously increase the power of a clearly ineffectual government full of corrupt, sadistic and self-righteous control freaks.

Clip # 1

Clip #2

What do you think? Comments?

Here is the Best and Most Realistic Review of “Cuties” (2020)

September 16, 2020 32 comments

Yesterday, I came across what is probably the best and most realistic review of the now infamous film on NetFlix aka “Cuties”. Here is the link to that post. The very short version of review, which you should read in full, is as follows: Far from being an Epstein-friendly film, it is actually a pretty good and realistic (if disturbing) portrayal of the world of pubescent girls with minimal parental supervision who are immersed in a world saturated by social media and full of female influencers whose only currency is their sexuality.

Amy’s cohort mainlines the validation they receive on Instagram. Their only currency is their budding sexuality, so they exploit it even though they’re mostly unaware of the effect it has. They twerk, shimmy, and pout because that’s what the adults do and it gets them the attention they crave. The girls’ dance troupe is preparing for a competition and Amy earns their respect by introducing even more provocative moves that she sees in, while not exactly a porn movie, the kind of pornified hip-hop video that has catapulted Cardi B to fame.

And let us be realistic.. Kim Kardashian became super-rich and a celebrity only after deliberately “leaking” a tape of her having sex with her then BF, Ray J, in 2007. And before her, that is also Paris Hilton became famous in 2004, in spite of already being the heiress of a large fortune. Or just look at Instagram, Twitch or even YouTube. Sex appeal sells.. the more blatant, the better. Do you really think that kids and adolescents don’t notice this as they grow up? Seriously?

What you see in “Cuties” or any of the numerous talent shows in this country featuring scantily clad clad girls is a natural consequence of two convergent trends seen in neoliberalism. Firstly, traditional stable but boring jobs and careers are rapidly disappearing. Secondly, being a celebrity can bring you a lot of fame and fortune in a very short time. Almost everybody wants a hit of that sweet.. sweet.. celebrity status and for young girls there is one easy way to achieve that end.

The film correctly points out that the current western model of “female empowerment” and “girl power”, in practice, is just as exploitative as the traditional patriarchal societies. It just pretends to be different and more “humanistic” than the later. I do agree that it didn’t help that NetFlix promoted this movie in a way guaranteed to get some free publicity by stoking public outrage. Anyway.. here is the director of “Cuties” saying something similar.

What do you think? Comments?

Will “Winner” of 2020 Presidential Election be Seen as Legitimate?

September 13, 2020 8 comments

As many of you know, 2020 has been a very interesting year. But what if I told you that it could get even more.. “interesting”. As some of you might remember, about two weeks ago I wrote a post about what might occur in case neither Trump nor Biden concedes after the 2020 election. I also wrote a post about the lack of realistic plans by Democrats if the election has uncertain or disputed results. Then there is my recent series about how the american elites, of both political parties, have lost touch with reality. Let us take all those thought experiments to the next step. Have you ever wondered what will occur if “winner” of 2020 election, assuming there is one, will be seen as legitimate. Now some of you, such as MikeCA, might say that the situation will resolve itself like it did in aftermath of the infamous 2000 election. I am not be sure about such a benign outcome and here are a few reasons for that belief.

1] People often forget that the America of 2000 was a very different place from the one we live in today. Sure.. this might not be evident by looking at photographs of downtown skylines, suburbs or even the underwear styles and pubic hair grooming of young women- we might as well be in a different country. 2000 was the peak of public acceptance of neoliberalism. That election had one of the lowest electoral turnouts in this country since WW2, and remember that the 90s had the lowest average turnout since 1940s. It also occurred at the peak of prosperity and well-being that occurred in later half of 1990s. All of this is a long winded way of saying the country was far less politically polarized, the mood was far more optimistic and people were generally much better off during at that time than they are in 2020. This is why most people did not care about GW Bush stealing the election from a lackluster neoliberal and conservative democrat such as Al Gore.

Let me remind you that Clinton42 won states in both 1992 and 1996 (LA, TN, WV, KY, AR, AZ, GA etc) which Democrats have not won for almost two decades. My point, once again, is that the public mood and degree of political polarization in late-1990s was very different from what we have today. Today things are.. much weirder than in 2000, and not in a good way. If the Bush vs Gore farce had occurred in the current political environment we would have major and prolonged riots in many cities- much worse than what we saw in past few months. And we are still talking about conventional mediocre political candidates with zero charisma or dedicated followers. In other words, a repeat of even the 2000 scenario with Trump vs Biden would make the craziness we saw in past few months look tame in comparison.

2] Let us move on the next question, namely whether partisan Republican voters will accept a “win” in a tight contest by Biden- especially if it is almost exclusively built on mail-in ballots? This is not a trivial question, since that scenario is far more likely than anybody wants to admit. What happens if Trump “wins” on election night and appears to be in the lead for a few days only to fall behind Dementia Joe after more mail-in ballots are suddenly discovered in certain swing states? Do you think Trump supporters (especially the ones with guns) are going to take this scenario lying down- especially given the unusually high levels of political polarization on top of all the disruption caused by COVID-19 shutdowns? Do you really think there won’t be street fights all over the country between Democrat supporters and armed MAGA-types? Do people such as MikeCA comprehend the significance and full consequences of this type of civil strife?

And it gets worse. Let us assume, for a moment, that Dementia Joe ends up being declared the “winner”. What are his plans to get the economy back in gear after all the job losses caused by COVID-19 shutdown? Are Democrats stupid enough to think that they can do a 180 and open everything within next week or month after inauguration? Do they think people will forget how much they were in favor of perpetual lockdowns, endless testing and all that other bullshit? Do they have the willingness and ability to pass trillions of dollars in assistance to make the 99% whole again? Do they have any plans for compensating the millions of small business which have either closed down or will do so soon? Do they have any plans to govern other than passing more “gun control” laws and endlessly talking about a “return to normality and civility”? And do they think there will be no resistance from armed MAGA fanatics?

3] Things don’t look better if Trump wins, either. For starters, he is almost guaranteed to lose the popular vote, even if he wins the electoral college. What happens if his “wins” in swing states are due to massive rejections and legal challenges of mail-in ballots? Do you think they will see him as a legitimate president, especially if he “wins” the electoral college under such circumstances? To be fair, many never saw him as a legitimate president in first place- even if they grudgingly accepted his electoral college victory in 2016. What happens if even that becomes controversial in 2020? What happens if Trump is declared as the “winner” under very shady conditions? What recourse do Democrats have? Will there be even more street protest, widespread and prolonged rioting, possible armed encounters between them and armed MAGA types? What about all those people who have become chronically unemployed or lost their small businesses due to COVID-19 shutdowns? Whose side will they take under such conditions?

What happens if nothing improves for people whose livelihood has been destroyed by COVID-19 shutdowns after Trump’s “victory”? Will that cause even more civic unrest and prolonged rioting? What happens if we start seeing occasional mass shootings at protests and clashes between protesters from different factions? What happens if Democratic-governed states decide to not open schools and universities in Winter 2021 out of spite after losing the election? Do you realize how unpredictable things can get with tens of millions of desperate,poor and unemployed people in this country right now- a statistic which is unlikely to change in near future. Now add in the risk of Trump starting a disastrous war with Iran or Venezuela just before the election or doing some other stupid shit to improve his poll numbers before election day?

In summary, 2020 can get far more ‘interesting’ than it has been so far- and this is not a good thing, to put it mildly.

What do you think? Comments?

What Happens if Neither Trump or Biden Concede the 2020 Election?

September 2, 2020 10 comments

In a previous post, I asked the question – do Democrats have a plan if election has an uncertain or disputed result? In that post, I also talked about a few scenarios including one where different political factions in swing states certify two different set of result certifications and vote counting in many states takes more than a few days. Since something like this has not occurred in living memory, especially in a highly polarized political environment, it is entirely possible that neither Trump or Biden will concede defeat leading to a very ‘interesting’ scenario where two people are claiming to have won the electoral college and thus the presidency. Turns out that I am not the only one who is seriously considering this possibility. See attached clip containing a discussion about how some of these things might go down.

The summary is that it is very likely for Trump to lead by a large margin of votes on election night, with said lead being slowly eroded and overcome once mail-in ballots are counted. But here is my question- will they be counted? What is there to stop Trump from declaring victory based on election night results and alleging massive mail-in ballot fraud? We know that his core base, which is enthusiastic and large (about 40% of voters) will go along with whatever he says. Now democrats such as MikeCA might say that their party has many high-powered lawyers, to which my counter is that Trump supporters have far more guns and willingness to wield them. It is very easy to imagine a scenario where a population that has grown to hate the COVID-19 shutdowns etc might just decide to take matters in their own hand, especially if Trump goads them on. In fact, they might do it even if Trump does not explicitly call for such action.

So what happens if neither Trump or Biden win decisively on election night and tons of mail-in ballots have yet to be counted? Or what if Trump wins decisively on election night but there are still many uncounted mail-in ballots? What happens if there are dozens or ,maybe, hundreds of parades by pro-Trump armed militias that converge on vote counting or storage locations? Do you think the local police forces will intervene? What happens if more than a few vote counting locations are set on fire or otherwise trashed by armed mobs of Trump supporters? What if they are met by mobs of Democratic party supporters? Remember that this is far more likely to occur in swing states such as FL, WI, MI ec than ‘blue states’ such as CA, NY or MA. At what point will either side relent and accept that they have lost? Or will they never admit? Will the person who ultimately takes office after inauguration day 2021 be seen as the legitimate president?

And we are not even talking about potential outbreaks of violence and intimidation by either side on and before election day. If you think that 2020 has been an exceptional year so far, it might be about to get a whole lot more ‘interesting’.

What do you think? Comments?

Do Democrats Have a Plan if Election Has Uncertain or Disputed Result?

August 30, 2020 15 comments

I was originally going to post the first part of a new series on why all the much touted “advances” in computer technology within past 25 years (hardware and software) have either not improved quality of life or actually made things worse. But due to a combination of laziness and need to fix some parts of that post, I decided to write about a fairly easy, but still important, topic. About two months ago, I wrote something about whether Democrats had a contingency plan if Trump cancelled the 2020 election. That post was inspired by Trump’s fall in relative popularity at that time combined with resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Since then Trump’s popularity seems to be increasing and the “second wave” of COVID-19 cases seems to have only a fraction of mortality as first wave. In other words, it now appears that the presidential race will be far closer than many establishment Democrats and their fanboys (such as MikeCA) had expected.

As you might also remember, in that post, I had also raised the possibility of Republicans trying to suppress voting and reduce turnout from areas with large democratic party vote-banks. Such vote suppression efforts can take various forms like shorter windows for advance voting, voter ID bullshit, reduction in number of polling centers, delays in processing postal ballots and disputing their validity. Let us also assume that Republicans will go full tilt and partially succeed in some ‘swing’ states. So, do establishment Democrats have a strategy, infrastructure and personal to handle such problems? Some of you might think, that they could be successful at defeating such efforts by Republicans. I don’t think so, and here is why.. While Democratic party could counter such efforts in a few populous states such as CA, WA, NY, NJ, MA and even in states such as NV and CO the reality is that Democratic party lacks the infrastructure and motivated personnel to do the same in swing states such as FL, MI, OH, PA, WI, MN, IA or even potential ones such as TX.

In other words, unless Dementia Joe maintains a persistent and large margin over Orange Troll from now till election day in ALL those swing states, it is very likely that Trump will carry most or all of them- thanks in no small part to Republican shenanigans. And this brings us to some very interesting possibilities. The least likely, but not totally improbable, one in 2020 concerns the possibility that both Dementia Joe and Orange Troll end up with 269 electoral college votes. FYI, 269 * 2 = 538. Does anybody here think that Trump will step down from office if we end up with a 269-269 EC vote scenario? On Twitter, many idiots aka rich coastal LIEbrals think that getting Trump to step down is as easy as the secret service agents asking him to step down. Let us, for a second, ignore the full implications of what they are dreaming about.. but ask yourself, is it even realistic.. especially if there are still tons of election-related lawsuits still going on in multiple states by inauguration day in January 2021?

And it gets worse.. what if there is a dramatic uptick in violent and lethal confrontations between AntiFa types and right-wing armed vigilantes of the type we saw in Kenosha and Portland within last few days? What happens if armed vigilantes target voting stations during early voting or on election day? Don’t believe it can’t happen in USA? Maybe.. that was the case in pre-2016 era, but it is certainly no longer true.. especially in the highly polarized and nihilistic socio-political environment of late-2020. There are too many angry, unhappy, tired, desperate people without any good prospects for future who will become enthusiastic foot-soldiers for extremist political movement at either end of political spectrum. Remember that all of this has occurred before during 1920s and early-1930s in aftermath of WW1 and the Great Depression. I have always maintained that the socio-economic dislocation caused by lockdowns etc to supposedly contain COVID-19 in combination with previous dismal economic trends seen in dying empires have the potential to cause a lot of “unforeseen consequences”.

But wait.. there is more. Given the ongoing intentional degradation of postal services + unusually high rate of postal ballot rejection and “misplacement” we have seen in recent primaries, what are the chances that this sort of bullshit won’t occur on a much larger scale during presidential election? But isn’t this identical to the electoral shenanigans which I predict Republicans will try to pull off this autumn? Well.. not quite, because intentionally delaying tabulation and certification of votes is not the same thing as preventing them from being cast in the first place. So why would it matter? Well.. because in a very close result in ‘swing’ states, we might end up two or more sets of conflicting certifications as to who won the state in question. So it is perfectly possible for the state of Wisconsin, as an example, to issue two sets of conflicting certifications- each by one set of known partisan representatives or officials. So.. do Democrats have a plan for the eventuality that more than one swing state might issue conflicting certifications of electoral tabulation?

More importantly, how long do these credentialed dummies think that people will wait for a clear electoral result before they start deciding the victor by themselves. Do they think that people will wait for a few days.. maybe a week? What about a few weeks? What happens if there are no unequivocal results as to who won election by Inauguration Day 2021? Are Democrats delusional enough to believe that Trump will concede in any situation where he hasn’t been very soundly defeated in the election? If you do.. I have a bridge to sell. Do they realize how bad the economic situation (especially job loss and unemployment benefits) could become between Election and Inauguration Day? Do they have any idea how bad this clusterfuck could become? I am sure that MikeCA will chime in at any moment to tell us how none of this come to pass and how Biden has a big and unbeatable lead over Trump. Just like 2016.. right?

What do you think? Comments?

Do Democrats Have a Contingency Plan if Trump Cancels 2020 Election?

June 26, 2020 20 comments

As many of you know, I have a tendency to think about scenarios which initially appear unlikely but often come to pass later. Today, I am going to talk about the possibility of Trump cancelling the 2020 election or otherwise rigging it in a very blatant manner. I also have a feeling that our resident partisan democrat aka MikeCA is going to have something to say about this in comment section. FYI- I first explicitly considered this possibility in Mid-April but have kept quiet about it until now because, unlike corporate media presstitues, I prefer to make speculations which are solidly grounded in reality rather than wild fantasy.

So here are a few, and not mutually exclusive, scenarios in which Trump either cancels the 2010 election on blatantly rigs it..

1] Trump cancelling the 2020 election is the most dramatic scenario. While anything is possible in 2020, I would consider this to be the least likely one. For starters, Trump is too full of himself and stupid to be any good at subverting democratic processes, a fact that MikeCA still hasn’t grasped. But if he were to do it, this is how he would do it.. Imagine a second or third wave of COVID-19 and Influenza in the fall causes another round of shutdowns. A combination of massive increase in unemployment rates and stingy financial assistance by government forments widespread social unrest. BLM type protests intensify into street battles all across the country between leftists and right-wingers leading to many people start expressing concerns about their safety on election day. And yes.. everything I have mentioned here could occur by late-September.

Under these circumstances, Trump could make a plausible case that the 2020 election has to be postponed for a few months. Some of you might mumble something about the constitution, but face it.. if the situation mentioned above came to pass it would be very hard to make the counter case- namely that free and fair election can be held on “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November” or “the first Tuesday after November 1”. While democrats have demonstrated that they can organize a million-woman ‘pussy hat’ march, they have also shown themselves to be incapable (or unwilling) to wield any real power. In other words, Trump has seen them repeatedly fold like a cheap suit under the slightest pressure and his supporters have guns while LIEbrals don’t. So.. ya, he could get away with it.

2] A second possibility is that Trump and the republicans could use such a scenario to truncate the electoral process. This one is much more likely because republicans have already shown themselves to be capable of doing it on smaller scale. I am sure some of you might have heard about the various shenanigans being pulled by Republicans in southern states after key parts of the voting rights acts were invalidated by the Supreme Court in 2013. You might also be aware of attempts to suppress votes by requiring complex ID requirements in Wisconsin, a couple other mid-western States (and also Texas?). There is also the issue of republicans legislating to reduce the number of days and places for early voting, challenging mail-in ballots and a host of other “legalistic tricks” to suppress the vote. It is perfectly rational to assume that these tactics will go into overdrive and reach unprecedented levels during the 2020 election.

I could write a lot more on this particular sub-topic, but I do not want to bore you and lets be realistic- this is almost certain to occur. Keep you eye on how states handle the issue of mail-in ballots accessibility subsequent to the COVID-19 crisis and the almost inevitable and prolonged legal challenges. So, let us move on to the 3rd scenario- which is a sequel to the 2nd one.

3] Trump could contest the electoral results after the election is over. If more than the usual number of people vote by mail-in ballots, it is inevitable that any concrete results (especially in battleground states) could take at least 2-3 weeks to be finalized with any degree of confidence. Meanwhile Trump could declare victory on election night or the day after and create a popular narrative that he had won the electoral college. MikeCA might say.. but, 50% of country won’t believe him. My response is the other 50% will, and that is the problem. The closest we came to such a scenario was in 2000, where Al Gore won popular vote and almost certainly the electoral college but was unable to find the popular support to force his case. MikeCA might say that the Supreme Court stole the election. Here is my reply.. if there were even a hundred thousand people burning down parts of DC in support of Al Gore, the Supreme Court would have chosen differently- if only to ensure their own safety.

The thing is.. given the number of CONservative judges appointed by Trump since assuming office, it might be an even harder task to litigate this matter in a speedy and satisfactory manner. We then end up in a nightmare scenario where Trump wins the electoral college by initial vote count (first 2-3 days), declares victory, subsequent counting of mail-in ballots show a Biden win leading to Trump and republicans contesting validity of mail-in ballots at various levels. This leads to prolonged litigation and fiascoes that make the ‘hanging chad’ controversy of 2000 seem almost quaint by comparison. Then Trump asks his supporters to demonstrate in Washington DC and other cities across country, causing clashes and riots with antifa types, leading to even more civil unrest- especially if real unemployment rates remain above 20-25% at that time. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out whoever emerges from his confrontation will not be seen as legitimate by one half of the country. It will be an epic shitshow to round up an epic year.

So here is my question to MikeCA and other comfortable coastal partisan democrats- Do you, or your party, for have a feasible contingency plan (or two) to prevent or mitigate these scenarios. And don’t tell that this will be dealt through the legal system etc.. because we know, based on past occurrences, that the legal system is not behind people such as yourself. So what are your plans? Another few ineffectual million-women ‘pussy hat’ marches? More toothless protests on highways? More scolding articles in the NYT, WP or on NPR? More chest beating by Chris Cuomo and Rachel Maddow? More snarky late-night jokes by Stephen Colbert? Any ideas about how confrontations between Trump supporting hicks with guns and anti-gun leftists will end? Also, how many people will actually fight for Dementia Joe to assume office in the aftermath of a contested election? These are serious questions about very consequential events whose impact will last much longer than four years of either clown- Trump or Biden.

What do you think? Comments?

Trump is Still the Favorite for Winning the 2020 Presidential Election: 2

June 22, 2020 14 comments

I wanted to start writing a new series about why there have been no worthwhile advances in the field of computers, software, IT etc for the past 10-20 years and how the current crop of geeks is busy pretending that this is not the case. Then I got a bit lazy and decided that a follow on to my previous post about why Trump is still the favorite to win in 2020 would take far less effort and generate more clicks and “buzz”. Sad.. isn’t it. With that in mind, let us talk about the many other reasons why Trumps is still by far the favorite to win in 2020. But before we go there, here is a quick recap of that previous post. In it, I pointed out that the factors which led to the rise of Trump in 2016 and his victory are still there and in many cases have become more dire. This is analogous to how the socio-economic consequences of WW1 and the Great Depression ensured the rise of fascism and similar ideologies in Europe. If it wasn’t Hitler, Mussolini, Franco etc.. there would have been someone else very similar to them.

I went on to show how the democratic party, since late-1970s, gradually became the party of Professional Managerial Class (PMC), a transformation which was complete by 1992. Democrats like to bemoan how the white working class left them, when it is they who abandoned that group to the vagaries of deindustrialization, job outsourcing, credentialism while supporting the growth of a shitty and expensive “health care” system, over-policing of minorities and poor people, high levels of income equality etc. In other words, establishment democrats have not only lost a good portion of their previous base but have managed to piss off a good portion of the voters who allegedly have no option but to vote for them. HRC lost all those mid-western states because the white working class went for Trump while the black working class (especially those below 45) could not be bothered to show up on election day. It does not help that establishment democrats haven’t learnt a single thing from the humiliation by Trump in 2016.

1] In the previous post, I wrote about how all that incessant talk about RussiaGate, UkraineGate, Mueller Report etc by democrats and their allies in the dying corporate media have not had any measurable effect on Trumps’ popularity or lack thereof. But have you wondered why democrats keep trying to pull off crap like that, even when they know it is ineffective at best, and more likely counterproductive? The naive (willingly or otherwise) among you might think that this has something to do with democrats being interested in promoting civility, order or some other lie. Based on my observations over the years, I think otherwise. It is my opinion that democrats are actually intellectually bankrupt and unable to think beyond whatever they have learned from participating in incestuous circle jerks at “prestigious” universities and isolated social bubbles. To be fair, so are their republican counterparts- but it is easier to conceal intellectual bankruptcy when one is also in power. Now some of you might say.. what is the proof?

Well.. in addition to their utter inability to get Trump impeached or entangled in any legal scandal that would result in reliable criminal prosecution, democrats spend almost every waking moment of the day trying to find a way to “diss” Trump. These idiots keep doing all this while Trump (and his cronies) are busy electing right-wing federal judges, passing large tax breaks and bailouts for corporations, weakening laws related to voting etc, rescinding regulations on corporations and a whole lot more. Here is the most recent example.. yesterday, Trump had a campaign rally at Tulsa, Oklahoma with about 40% of the number of supporters he expected. Instead of seeing this in the correct context of it being first large campaign gathering since mid-March in USA and under the shadow of riots across country, I woke to see talentless “celebrities” such as Amy Schumer try to “diss” Trump over number of people at his first rally since COVID-19 shutdown was lifted.

Here are my thoughts, 6,200 is much more than than 100- which is the maximum size of crowds at Biden’s rallies- if you can call them that. If I were an establishment democrat, the thought that a moron who has screwed up so much could still get thousands to attend his first campaign rally in some city in a flyover state under the shadow of COVID-19 and race riots, while Biden cannot get 100 people (non-paid) even if his life depended on it would scare me about the outcome of 2020 presidential election.It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that this is only going to make Trump redouble his efforts and successfully arrange much larger political rallies. To make matters worse, these liberal shitheads have once gain succeeded in making the orange buffoon look like a sympathetic person under constant attack from the very class most american hate with a passion. And guess what, I bet they can’t see this because their head is so far up their ass.

2] Talking about people with heads up their rears.. let us move on Joe Biden aka Dementia Joe. As many of you know, I have written more than a couple of posts about his senile dementia (link 1, link 2, link 3). Some of you might also remember his very poor performance in the very tame democratic debates. It does not take much of imagination to see how bad he would perform in even a single debate against Trump, let alone three. You might have also realized by now that Biden’s cognitive status (or the lack thereof) has already been one of the main pillars of attack ads against him. These very effective line of attacks against Dementia Joe are only going to to get far more harsher, frequent and overt once the incestuous dummies aka establishment Democrats officially select him as their presidential candidate in the next few weeks. So what is the democrat plan to defend Dementia Joe from such attacks? Well.. I don’t think they have a plan, because if they had any brains they would replaced him with someone without dementia.

But even if Trump did not go after Joe Biden’s obvious dementia (which is highly unlikely), he still has tons of ammo against Biden- given that the later has been involved in everything from militarization of police, increase in mass incarceration, preventing discharge of student loans during bankruptcy, making bankruptcy difficult, PNTR with China, NAFTA and a host of things that are super unpopular with the democratic electorate in 2020. It is very revealing that most (2/3rds) of people who claim they will vote for Joe Biden list not liking Trump as their main reason. In my opinion, this implies he has very soft and easily destructible support. In contrast to this, the majority who say they will vote for Trump will do it because they want him to win the election. That is why any pretend poll which shows Dementia Joe with a 10% lead over Trump almost 5 months from election day under such an unusual and rapidly evolving situation is not worth the paper on which it was printed. I have a feeling that MikeCA might think differently.

In the next part of this series, I will go further into why Joe Biden is an especially bad candidate for this moment in history. Will also discuss possibility of economic conditions and second wave of COVID-19 depressing or altering long-held patterns of electoral turnout.

What do you think? Comments?

Trump is Still the Favorite for Winning the 2020 Presidential Election: 1

June 17, 2020 13 comments

Many of you might have seen a slew of recent polls which claim that Dementia Joe currently has a 10-point lead over Orange Man. These polls have elicited a bunch of reactions from the “properly credentialed pundit” class. Some see them as the first definitive sign that Trump will finally lose in 2020, others as validation that 24/7 smearing by corporate MSM finally working. Yet others see them as evidence that the country is finally moving in the “right direction”, whatever that means. You might notice that one word keeps popping up in these reactions.. finally. But is that really the case or are these pundit reactions just more wishful thinking? Well, in my opinion these reactions are the later aka more wishful thinking. Here is why..

1] As late as 7 pm ET on November 8th 2016, every “serious” person was certain that HRC was going to win the presidential election. Any suggestion to the contrary was met with a haughty laugh of the type usually associated with “credentialed experts” educated at “elite universities”. Wonder how did all of that work out? Trump won by the only measure which matters according to the constitution aka the electoral college and became president. But have you ever wondered how so many polls could be so wrong? Now, sad pedants such as MikeCA will try to tell you that the polls correctly predicted the popular vote which HRC won by 2-3 million or about 3%. Let us dissect that defense of polls a bit further.. shall we.

Almost all of HRCs margin in popular votes came from two states with a large population (NY and CA). In other words, Tangerine Man won more votes in you add up the other 48 states than HRC. But let us ignore this trivial issue right now and ask a much bigger question- how does a reality show clown with a very public scandal-ridden past become the presidential nominee of one of the two parties in this country- and why would so many people vote for such a sketchy guy over the ultimate “credentialed diversity” candidate? While many are still in deep denial (MikeCA?), the majority of those who voted for Trump did so despite his numerous shortcomings because they preferred him over somebody who represented everything they hated about the system.

But.. but.. some might say, just because every pundit of any fame was wrong in 2016 does not mean they will be wrong again in 2020. Surely these “credentialed experts” must have learned something from their utter humiliation in 2016.. right? Also, wasn’t Trump positioning himself as an outsider in 2016- something he cannot do in 2020 after being a pathetic president for the past four years.. right? Well.. if you think that most people who voted for Trump did so because he was outsider with great promise, I have a bridge to sell you. And no.. the “experts” haven’t learned a damn thing, otherwise they would not be so certain and giddy about Dementia Joe 2020 prospects almost five months before election day.

So let me repeat the obvious.. again.. most people voted for Trump because he sounded, looked and behaved like them and was therefore a giant ‘FUCK YOU’ to an incestuous political system which ignored and immiserated them for the past 40 years. The conditions which led to his rise are still there and in some areas have worsened considerably since 2016. This is also why the 24/7 smear jobs by corporate media outlets, bullshit reports and impeachment hearings have had very little effect on his popularity ratings- which, face it, have always hovered around the mid-40s. Trump’s ratings are bulletproof because the majority of Americans (voters and non-voters) have lost faith in ability of current system to deliver a better future for them. And one more thing.. most people hate the Professional Managerial Class (PMC) with a passion.

2] Since we are talking about the PMC, let us also talk about the political party that represents them in modern american politics aka the Democrats. As I have written repeatedly in numerous older posts, the biggest difference between democrat and republican politicians is that the former tries to portray itself as more enlightened and of “superior breeding”. However other than such superficial differences between the two parties, they are identical and interchangeable for all practical proposes. Now this was not always the case, and upto the late-1970s, the democratic party (both pre- and post- civil rights) was a different beast from the republican party. Then the great realignment of 1968 and rise of neoliberalism occurred.

To make a very long story short, since late-1970s the upper echelon of democratic party have been increasingly populated by people who even a decade prior to that time would have identified as staunch republicans. Yes.. I am talking about the PMC, especially their coastal versions. These are the type of people who say they are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal and pretend to have a “black friend”. But why do the PMC and wannabe-PMCs matter? Well.. because the ideology and apparatchiks of democratic party (even non-white ones) are almost exclusively drawn from this class. Their ascendance in ranks of democratic party and society began in late 1970s and their stock kept rising until GFC of 2008 after which their fortunes have taken a increasingly steep downward turn. But why does these McMansion dwellers matter?

Well.. because almost every major problem facing this country from deindustrialization, job outsourcing, a shitty and expensive “health care” system, over-policing, high levels of income equality, widespread loss of institutional competence etc can be traced back to the rise of this class in american society. Remember when I said that one of the reasons many people voted for Trump over HRC even though she was the ultimate “credentialed diversity” candidate. The thing is.. HRC reminded people of the generic PMC drone who humiliated them in real life, destroyed their livelihood and profited from it. Interestingly, that is also why Romney lost to Obama in 2012. As I said before in this post, most people just hate.. hate.. PMC types.

But what does any of this have to do with Trump likely winning in 2020? Well.. for starters the VP candidate of Dementia Joe is almost certain to be a member of the PMC. Now this would not be totally disastrous if Dementia Joe did not have senile dementia, because most people who vote in presidential elections tend to focus on top of ticket. But as we all know, Joe Biden has.. should we say, serious and progressive neurological issues.The man is a shadow of what he was as late as 2016, and his declining cognitive status will become a major campaign issue and point of attack by Trump’s campaign. But as you will see in the next part of this short series, choosing Dementia Joe as their presidential candidate is a proverbial tip of the iceberg as far as the deliberate incompetence of democratic party is concerned.

In that part, I will go into how the democratic party squandered 3.5 years on fake scandals like RussiaGate, UkraineGate, Mueller Report etc while quietly going along with traditional republican (in reality, corporate) agendas. I will show you how democrats have acquiesced to almost every corrupt move by Trump and republicans- from appointing conservative judges, approving massive increases in military spending, further gutting the already threadbare social safety net, increasing militarization of police and much.. much.. more. But why does any of this matter? The very short answer is- the democratic party can only win elections at all levels in this country decisively IF they exhibit a concrete and sustained desire to differentiate them from the other party in a manner that actually matters to the average voter. I will also go into why Joe Biden is a uniquely bad candidate for 2020, albeit in a different way than HRC was in 2016.

What do you think? Comments?

When Life Starts Imitating Art: The June 2020 Movie Edition

June 5, 2020 10 comments

Since I am feeling a bit lazy today, thought it might be a good idea to finish a short post that was in my drafts folder for a couple of weeks. So.. there are a couple (or more) movies from the past few years which bear an interesting, and at times eerie, resemblance to what has been occurring in this country for the past two weeks. I am sure the more conspiracy-minded among you might see something else. In any case, here is the first relevant clip.

This one is from ‘V for Vendetta’ (2005). While not the best adaptation of original graphic novel, the material from this clip is particularly relevant to how seeming invulnerable institutions and systems of governance that are no longer connected with reality can be overwhelmed by the consequences of their own stupidity- in this case, reaction to civil unrest. The especially relevant bit is that the ‘fingermen’ in the novel (and movie) have a rather strong resemblance to police in this country. The graphic novel talks much more about general dissatisfaction with the system among most people. Long story short, ever increasing demonstrations of force create a cycle of more sympathetic victims and ever increasing levels of resistance among populace.

V for Vendetta: The Dominoes Fall

The second clip is from a more recent movie- ‘Joker’ (2019). As many of you know, the titular character in this movie is a withdrawn “loser” living in near-poverty who has nothing to lose. His actions (killing three bankers and that TV show host on live TV) ends up sparking large-scale civil unrest against the police and plutocrats in the fictional Gotham city. The key to understanding this clip is that, once again, most people in the city are already tired of the system and the Joker’s action just provide the perfect spark to ignite a large pre-existing collection of tinder. If either clip seems far fetched, let me remind you that WW1 was ignited by the actions of an incompetent assassin who got lucky and WW2 was started by the most unlikely rise of a certain failed landscape artist and drifter to power.

Joker: Anarchy in Gotham

What do you think? Comments?

Economic Fallout of COVID-19 Shutdown will Dominate 2020 Elections

May 3, 2020 17 comments

As many of you know, I have consistently held the opinion that social and economic fallout from overreaction to this pandemic is going to be far worse and consequential than the final death toll. In case you need a refresher, here are a few links (link 1, link 2, link 3). While yet another post about this general topic might seem tediously repetitive, it is my opinion that even supposedly non-corporate media-types are too fixated on the deaths of 81-year-olds in nursing homes to notice the absolutely unprecedented socio-economic damage and long-term consequences of this shutdown on many western countries. And yes.. the negative effects of this shutdown will be far bigger in western countries and wannabes such as India than their East-Asian counterparts.

1] Many serological surveys in areas with high rates of deaths due to COVID-19 have consistently shown that the number of people who were infected by this virus (and developed antibodies to it) but did not develop symptoms sufficient to seek medical attention is about 10-50 times higher than number who tested positive for the virus with PCR-based tests. Note that PCR-based tests can only detect active infection (in all patients) or post-infectious viral shedding (in a small minority). In other words, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections account for the vast majority of cases. To make a long story short, serological surveys from even the worst hit areas with an older population suggest an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of less than 0.5%.

Even in areas of northern Italy that are full of old retirees and nursing homes, the chance of an infection leading to death is less than 1 in 200. Now I am sure that some of you are going to tell me that the present generation of serological tests have high error rates etc. And this is in spite of most of you never having performed a serological test let alone have an understanding of the factors which lead to false positive and false negative results in those tests. Once again, to make a long story short, the tests used in most of these surveys were independently validated by the researchers who used them and almost every single one had false positive rates below 1%. To put it another way, while some of the tests could be better, the vast majority were good enough to detect rates of seropositivity over 2%.

In many heavily affected areas, these surveys show rates of seropositivity in the 10-15%, 20-30% and even 50% range. Moreover, the geographical distribution of seropositivity rates in each survey tracks the death rate in those areas. But what does a discussion of seropostivity trends and extrapolated IFR contribute to a post on how the socio-economic fallout of this pandemic will dominate 2020 elections. Well.. let me spell it out for you. An infection, however contagious, with an IFR of less than 0.5% and most likely closer to 0.2% is not much worse than a bad strain of Influenza. Since the end of WW2, we had at least 4-5 Influenza pandemics with similar or slightly higher IFR rates. While some of these pandemics necessitated shutting down schools etc for a few weeks etc, none resulted in a generalized economic shutdown of the kind we are seeing today.

2] Given that the 2020 elections are in early November, which is about six months from today, you can be certain that general experience and many more serological surveys with even better tests will reveal an IFR of around 0.2% (1 death per 500 infections). Since this is no worse for most of the population (below 80 years) than an especially bad Influenza season, people who have been ruined and impoverished through the loss of their jobs and businesses will start asking some very inconvenient questions about the “official response” to this pandemic. Was a general shutdown really necessary? Given the mild presentation and low infectivity of this disease in children and young adults, was the closure of schools and universities really necessary?

Weren’t highly targeted actions meant to protect the most vulnerable (65+ and chronically ill) the better option- especially since we knew, even early on, that the disease caused the vast majority of fatalities in those groups? Given that this virus can easily spread in aerosols beyond 2 meters, how was this whole “social distancing” bullshit any different from post 9/11 security theater in airports. How was the decision to close “non-essential” retail and restaurants a good idea, when studies show that most transmissions occur in private residences, nursing homes, hospitals, cruise ships, aircraft carriers and other unusually crowded and enclosed areas. And the questions will keep get more problematic..

Why did so many elected officials not have a well-thought out (if somewhat unemotional) plan to reopen the economy? Even today, politicians from states such as NY and CA to TX and GA do not have a coherent and well-thought of plan for definitively reopening the economy- the key word being ‘definitively’. Do these elected dumbfucks think that pausing the economy for 12-18 months is possible? This question becomes especially important when it becomes obvious that the IFR is about 0.2% and there is a very clear way to identify those with the worst outcomes? Do these dummies have a plan to successfully develop, mass produce and mass vaccinate hundreds of millions? Given how badly they have bumbled thus far, why would you believe them? Why would you trust people whose poor decision-making skills have already ruined your life?

3] Talking about those who have suffered due to incompetent leaders making poor decisions.. how can all these unemployed people afford to keep on paying rents, mortgages, car payments, health insurance payments, university fees etc. While it might be tempting to point out that the Trump administration has been especially incompetent and stingy at delivering cash payments to average people- even countries which have done a much better job have not been able to make average people whole again. Small business in this country face a similar problem, because most of the trillions in government aid has gone to large companies and multinationals. Long story short, even if the economy all over this country was opened tomorrow, there would tens of millions who would be unemployed and many millions whose small businesses had failed for no fault of theirs. Do we have the political will to implement a decent social safety net?

Democrats, such as that corrupt dago from NY and that neoliberal from CA, are now positioning themselves as the new ‘resistance’ against Trump. They keep on mumbling random bullshit, which they don’t understand, such as “science based plans” for reopening economy etc. Are you fucking serious? Have these democrat dumbfucks even performed a back-of-envelope reckoning of the number (and percentage) of newly unemployed people and failed business in their state? Are they stupid enough to imagine that people won’t blame them for destroying their livelihoods? Then again the democratic party was stupid enough to nominate HRC in 2016 and that dementia patient.. Joe Biden.. in 2020. So, I guess it is possible. Also note how establishment democrats such as that hag with bad plastic surgery.. Nancy Pelosi.. and her compatriots have pretty much disappeared from the public arena. It doesn’t help that these losers haven’t come up with anything beyond a few “means tested” and very inadequate programs to help those affected by biggest financial crisis since the great depression.

Yes.. you read that right. The COVID-19 pandemic, specifically its aftermath, is the biggest financial crisis since the great depression of the early 1930s. The GFC of 2008 now looks almost quaint compared to how bad things have gotten so far, and we are nowhere near the end of this one. And you something else.. when such a large scale disaster or crisis strikes any country, affected people always look for scapegoats. The last time we had an election with over 20% unemployment in this country was in 1932, about 88 years ago- and we know how that went. Heck, even a now minor one like the one in 2008 made many people vote for a black guy who sounded good on TV than anyone remotely connected to that mess. Some partisan democrats (MikeCA) might think that this crisis will translate into a victory for his cult. I wouldn’t be so sure.. because in this crisis, democrats have visibly fucked up at least as much (if not more) than their republican counterparts- and it shows.

Establishment types in the democratic party seem to believe (almost as a matter of faith) that Trump’s fuckups will somehow magically hand them the presidency in 2020. However, as I mentioned in the previous paragraphs, there is more than enough blame to go around, and this will be very apparent by early November. At that time, many tens of millions of impoverished and angry people will want to find and lynch a scapegoat.. any scapegoat. Chances are that Trump’s rhetoric of “opening the economy for business” might sound far better to them than “lets keep it all closed (or close to that) until some undefined date in the future”. This outcome is especially likely once it becomes obvious that the IFR is somewhere between 0.2-0.5% and even lower (0.1%) in working-age population. In any case, the economic fallout of the response to this pandemic is going to totally overshadow the number of deaths from it by November 2020.

What do you think? Comments?