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Damage Due to COVID-19 Restrictions Will Cause a Huge Backlash- 2

December 26, 2020 10 comments

In previous part of this series, I wrote about how the hugely botched response to COVID-19 pandemic by Western governments and public health “experts” is almost certain to cause an unimaginably large backlash in 2021. What makes this incredibly incompetent response even more remarkable is that things have gotten worse with every passing month. Don’t believe me? Well.. have a look at the late Autumn spike in “diagnosed” cases which occurred all over the western world irrespective of whether the leader of that country was Trump or somebody else. At the time of writing this post, the per capita incidence in almost every West-european country (at peak) is either close to, or more than, USA. In fact, the rates in many supposedly “responsible” countries such as Germany have now surpassed USA.

But why does this matter and what is it’s connection to the topic of this post? As some of you might remember, a lot of the public health measures floated by “experts” and enthusiastically promoted by politicians, main stream media and social media monopolies were supposed to prevent this exact outcome. Except that they did nothing of that sort! Feel free to compare the per capita incidence of PCR-positive cases in states that have implemented tons of society- and business- killing restrictions to neighboring states which didn’t implement them. It is as if all this bullshit about everybody wearing masks in public places, not re-opening schools and universities, closing restaurants and other small businesses or all that social-distancing lies had zero effect on the autumn rise in number of positive tests. In other words, all of that personal sacrifice (performed by those ‘little’ people) was in vain.

Do you really think that most people haven’t noticed that all of their largely uncompensated personal sacrifice had zero effect on the autumn wave of this disease? Maybe.. some losers with sinecured or otherwise stable jobs don’t mind the disruption to their lives, but a much larger percentage and number of people are now both very angry and in dire poverty due to those disruptions. Needless to say, they will find scapegoats among politicians, public health “experts”, MSM cocksuckers and SJWs in social media companies. But their hunt won’t stop with these obvious targets. It is no secret that many other sections of Western society have beclowned themselves during the botched response to this pandemic. Let us start by talking about how schools and universities have handled themselves.

1] As some of you might now, the death rate for COVID-19 infection in those younger than 25 is less than 1, in 10,000 and if you eliminate deaths in those who were already quite ill, it is likely less than 1 in 100,000. In spite of these figures being very consistent across many states and countries for past few months, a large percentage of schools in USA are still closed for in-person learning. While we can go into the reasons behind the decision of many teaching unions to beclown themselves, which include offering token #resistance to Trump, it goes without saying that even a scenario where every person below 25 in USA gets COVID-19, the excess mortality would be in the few hundreds or low thousands. Moreover most of this mortality could be avoided by keeping those susceptible to severe outcomes (cancer survivors, severely ill kids) at home for a few months. But what about the teachers, you might say.

Well..for starters, most teachers in USA and many other Western countries are women and under 50 and also have a really low death rate from to this disease. To put it bluntly, it was perfectly possible to reopen schools and run them like normal by having the chronically ill children and teachers over 50 stay at home. Even a 100% infection rate among teachers and students would result in no more than a couple thousand extra deaths in USA. You might not like what I am saying, but it is hard to argue with my reasoning. However this is only a small part of why backlash against teachers and their unions will be especially severe in USA. The first major reason comes down to the fact that public schooling in West is glorified babysitting which allows both parents to work 9-to-5 jobs. Keeping schools closed hurts the working class far more than numerically much smaller upper-middle class.

To make matters worse, a large percentage of the working class sees teachers as pampered, overpaid, incompetent and elitist assholes who owe their cushy jobs to unions- something that is not possible for most people in USA. Let me remind you that most working class people had to keep working during the pandemic at same time when all these teachers were sitting on their collective behinds at home while still receiving full pay. I predict that the backlash will take form of voters supporting right-wing politicians who want to cut school funding- either directly or indirectly. And given the significant shortfall in tax revenues for local and state governments in aftermath of this crisis, this outcome is almost inevitable. And to be honest, most teachers deserve it for how they have handled themselves during this crisis.

2] If you thought that teachers and schools had shot themselves badly in the foot by refusing to reopen during COVID-19 pandemic or did so with bizarre pre-conditions, think again.. because universities have outdone them by a mile. But before we go there, let us talk about the single biggest difference between schools and universities in USA. See.. while the vast majority of schools are pre-paid for by taxes and therefore free to attend, obtaining a university degree requires the median student to spend many tens of thousands of dollars in fees- and we haven’t even started talking about living costs in certain coastal cities. Did I mention that you cannot discharge student loans during a bankruptcy? To make a long story short, attending university in USA is a very expensive proposition with very onerous loan repayment conditions. So why do students keep attending them?

While part of the reason comes down to societal and employer pressure to obtain a university degree of some sort, a far bigger reason (for many) is that university is a place to network for future job and career opportunities. Of course, you can’t do that unless you physically attend university. To make matters worse, the online learning experience is inferior for those old CD-ROM courses offered by distance learning for-profit universities offered in the late 1990s. Did I mention that vast majority of universities have not reduced their fees since going online? To make another long story short, universities have decided to throw their student body (aka customers in USA) under the proverbial bus without considering long term consequences of such actions. Given the conditions and factors mentioned earlier in this paragraph, the medium- to long- term effect on their reputation and ability to attract paying customers (I mean.. students) is unlikely to be positive.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, universities in USA have largely gone through the large increase in student population between late-1990s and early- to mid-2010s caused by a wave of baby-boomer children. There just aren’t that many future local students for them in next decade, which is why so many of them are recruiting international students at record numbers since the early 2010s. These high-paying students (usually from China) have become an important source of income for many universities in past few years. It does not take a genius to figure out that shutting down physical university for a year is going to hurt ability of most universities to recruit rich overseas students. It does not help that many universities in this country are overloaded with useless administrative parasites and therefore barely getting by in spite of collecting record amounts of tuition from students.

Given the upcoming revenue shortfalls, I expect many of them to start cutting corners by laying of teaching staff rather than firing administrative types, thus entering a death spiral where loss of income leads to loss of reputation which leads to further loss of income. What makes this whole farce darkly comic is that the risk of death from COVID-19 among student aged people is also very low- less than 1 in 5,000 and most deaths occur in those with serious chronic conditions. I should also mention that majority of teaching duties in universities are already performed by junior teaching staff, contract and sessional instructors who are very likely to be under 50 and in good health. I mean.. we could just have had professors above 70 and those with serious chronic diseases stay at home for a few months.

In the next part of this series, I hope to go into the effects of these shutdowns and restictions on small and medium business who employ far more people than their revenues might suggest.

What do you think? Comments?

Damage Due to COVID-19 Restrictions Will Cause a Huge Backlash- 1

December 19, 2020 20 comments

For the past few weeks, I have been considering writing a post (or two) listing my predictions for 2021. Since I have some spare time right now, let me start by making an obvious series of predictions about the upcoming year. And yes.. I have tackled this topic in a previous series and other older posts. I have also written about the ineffectiveness of conventional face masks and likely issues with widespread use of any potential vaccine. Thus far, every aspect of the response in western countries to COVID-19 from damaging widespread lockdowns that have no worthwhile effects on caseloads, ineffectual facemasks policies, hamhanded and delusional vaccination policies are creating a lot of fuel for huge public backlashes in 2021.

1] The most important determinant of long-term public support for all governmental policies concerning any war, restrictions or other deprivations comes down to the simple question- how much does it inconvenience or hurt the median person? Let me remind you that american public support for Vietnam war was very high in the beginning, but declined sharply once conscription became widespread and increasing number of recruits came back in body bags or as cripples. Similarly, the Iraq War was popular towards in the beginning when many stupid muricans believed they could win it at very little personal cost. Once it became obvious that the war was creating an endless stream of brain-damaged and crippled veterans, it became far less popular. The inability to move freely in Iraq years after that failed occupation, due to multiple ongoing insurgencies, did not help its popularity either.

So how does this knowledge help us predict the now inevitable backlash against botched response to COVID-19 by western countries, especially USA. For starters, we now have tons of data from both adjacent countries and states that brain-dead measures such as lockdowns, public making, closing restaurants and other small business etc have almost no effect on the rise and fall of case numbers. While some of you might not have heard about this because of spending too much time watching CNN and MSNBC- it is now increasingly common knowledge that many measures such as public masking pushed by public health “scientists” and faceless bureaucrats are nothing more than public theater while others such as closing restaurants, small businesses and physical retail are actively harmful. In the first 2-3 months people went along with the bullshit because they were afraid of the unknown, but now too many know somebody who tested positive for COVID-19 and had an uneventful spontaneous recovery.

My point is that the number of people who know somebody who contracted COVID-19 and recovered without complications is many fold more than those who know somebody who died. And for good reason! Mortality due to that infection in the under-50 population is somewhere between 1 in 5,000- 10,000. In fact, it crosses the 1 in 1,000 figure only for people above 60 and healthy non-institutionalized old people between 70-80 have a mortality rate of about 2-3%. But why does this matter? Well.. to put it bluntly, western societies don’t care much about lives of very old and institutionalized. While they may pretend to care about such people to show others around them that they are “good people”, they cannot keep up the charade for long if it is causing them to lose lots of money. By continuously lying to people that COVID-19 is far more dangerous than it is, the public health establishment in West is is serious risk of losing any residual public credibility which it might still have.

Which brings us to the second set of reasons why things are going to go ballistic in many countries aka this shitshow has been going on for almost 9 months now.

2] As you know, most human beings are conformist cowards who will go along any stupid belief system for a short time. The real problems start once the ridiculous crap continues past a few months. At that point, people will start reevaluating their previous beliefs- especially if they think that those beliefs are causing them financial or other loss. This is why most people either don’t join cults or slowly drop out of them as things get more extreme. While west European countries have a significantly better social safety net than USA, even they cannot keep the economy going for more than a few months. Things are even worse in countries with more fragile service-based economies + low job and career security + almost non-existent social safety net such as USA. Note that the shutdowns and restrictions are causing far more unemployment and financial damage to people under 40 and 50 than those over 65-70.

The problem with public health “scientists” and politicians trying to push their ineffectual ideas about indefinite lockdowns is that in addition to exaggerating the threat of COVID-19 they have not adequately compensated the people whose businesses and livelihoods have been affected. Even European countries which have far more generous wage replacement schemes than USA have not been able to make up the income loss to affected workers, not to mention uncertainty about future of affected business. The simple fact is that there many times more people who are being deliberately pushed into poverty by lying and incompetent governments in Western countries than there are people above 80. Things are even bleaker in USA where wage support is basically nonexistent for most laid-off and furloughed workers. Did I mention that most affected small businesses in USA are fucked.

To make matters worse, in almost every single Western country including USA the center-left part and its vocal minority PMC-class supporters are in favor of indefinite lockdowns without any hope or compensation. These sinecured assholes have lost all touch with the daily reality of a much larger group in their country. I predict, with complete certainty, that this will lead to the sort of backlash which will make Brexit vote and Trump’s election in 2016 look quaint. For example- the results of 2022 election in USA, barring some miracle or extreme incompetence by Republicans, will make the previous defeats suffered by Democratic party look comically small by comparison. I also predict similar electoral carnage for many other ruling parties in Western Europe in next two years- along with significant improvements in public support for right-wing parties. History might not repeat, but it often rhymes.

3] Many of you might have also heard that many social media companies and internet monopolies in the “free” West are trying to censor “unofficial” information about COVID-19, vaccine side-effects etc. I predict that such behavior by these corporations will have two main effects. Firstly, it will greatly increase public support behind those attempting to break up and regulate those corporations. But more importantly, it will amplify the very messages and distrust in “credentialed” authority which they are trying to suppress. If you don’t believe ask anybody for pre-1989 Eastern European countries if they believed official news about their own country. And yes.. it also feeds back into the anti-establishment dynamic which I talked about in the previous paragraph. The next two years will be most interesting.

The already moribund public health establishment in Western countries will be among the biggest loser in aftermath of this backlash. For starters, they have they lost any residual public goodwill during the past 9 months due to their inability to control COVID-19. But far worse was their poorly thought decisions (not based in scientific facts) which have caused massive damage to lives of thousands of times more people than those who died from COVID-19. Their pathetic attempts to pretend that COVID-19 vaccinations are safer than natural infection in younger age-groups is almost guaranteed to start some backlash in the next few weeks. Then again, public health in the past 40 years has been largely an exercise in bullshit mathematical models and SJW beliefs with no basis in reality. Will write about the effect of backlash on public perception of schools, universities, PMCs and politicians in upcoming part.

What do you think? Comments?