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Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 3

March 3, 2020 14 comments

In the previous post of this series, I promised to write about how the results of South Carolina’s democrat primary would be used by the party establishment to try and push the candidacy of an old guy with vascular dementia aka Joe Biden. Yes, you heard that right- it is my opinion that Joe Biden displays symptoms consistent with cerebrovascular dementia. In case you didn’t know, this is a sub-type of senile dementia in which neuronal dysfunction and death is largely caused by micro- and macro- vascular dysfunction in the brain, rather than pathological changes associated with Alzheimer’s Disease. It should be noted that most patients with senile dementia have some combination of cerebrovascular dysfunction and pathological changes seen in Alzheimer’s disease. So what makes me think that Joe Biden’s obvious dementia is of the vascular type?

Well.. due to his medical history. Patients with the more classical version of Alzheimer’s tend to be female and in their late 70s or older. Vascular dementia type pathology, on the other hand, is more common in men- especially those with a history of previous vascular dysfunction, a history of previous traumatic brain injury or prior neurosurgery. As some of you might know, Biden had a couple of surgeries in the late 1980s to repair two particularly nasty aneurysms in his brain. While those surgeries saved his life, it should be noted that somebody with multiple aneurysms (even after repair) is far more likely to develop other cerebrovascular issues later on in their life than somebody who never had them. To quickly summarize, Biden rapid and obvious cognitive decline since 2012-2015 is most likely the result of (predominantly) vascular dementia.

But why does this matter and what does it have to do with future of democratic primary? As it turns out a lot. Let me explain. See.. Biden has gone down in the polls since his entry into the race for two main reasons. Firstly, the Bernie’s campaign cleverly dug up his long record of support for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. But even more importantly, because Biden’s staff kept his media or public appearances to a bare minimum because they rightly understood that he was displaying too many symptoms of dementia for potential voters to look the other way. This is also why rich donors were willing to put far more money behind other turncoat candidates such as McKinsey Buttboy and Lying Liz. This is why DNC’s original plan to deny Bernie the nomination- which was based on flooding the field with many candidates who were expected to take votes away from Bernie- but not Biden backfired, spectacularly.

To be fair, Bloomberg’s unanticipated entry into the race and his spending over 500 million on advertising to project himself as the centrist alternative was the killer blow for Biden- which is ironic since Bloomberg was trying to stop Bernie, not Biden. I could write multiple posts on why McKinsey Buttboy and Amy Binderthrower got steamrolled in the primaries, but they are no longer relevant. The very short version is that the number of partisan democrats who want 90s-style centrists is declining as more babyboomers keep dying. You might have seen the grifting piece of shit aka Barack Obama was able to get Buttboy and Binderthrower to drop out yesterday and endorse Biden. As I have written in the past Obama is the political equivalent of Bill Cosby and his presidency was a disaster for establishment democrats, which makes their continued worship of him even more pathetic. I am sure MikeCA will disagree with this assessment.

Since we cannot change the past, so let us talk about the future- specifically my predictions about how the democratic primary will evolve. FYI- I am not concerned about the results of Super Tuesday voting since Obama’s last minute scam does not change the overall direction of this contest. Having said that it changes something further down the line. Let me explain..

1] Any person who is not an establishment democrat or partisan worshiper (MikeCA?) will tell you that the party has experienced a pretty steep decline in many parts of the country within the past decade. To be fair it has been on a generally downward path for the past twenty years, but it is undeniable that this slow-motion collapse sped up after Obama took office in early-2009. But why? Well.. the short answer is that Obama got elected by pretending to a populist reformer, but ended up continuing and intensifying neoliberal policies once in office. There is a reason why it took the incredible ineptitude of Trump for democrats, in 2018, to even partially reverse their decade-long streak of losses. However, thus far, no political figure of any fame has openly said that Obama was a shitty president and the proximal cause of Trump’s rise.

Even Bernie Sanders, whose private critique of Obama is well known, has so far not criticized the later openly. However the dumb meddling that Obama pulled off yesterday is almost certain to make Bernie’s campaign reconsider their previous reticence to criticize him. This is especially likely since they now understand that older black voters in the south are not going to vote for a Jew under any condition. Also, after Super Tuesday there are no big states full of older black voters coming up for some time- if at all. So expect the Bernie campaign, especially surrogates to start going after the many problematic legacies of Obama’s presidency. While Bernie would have had to do this at a later stage anyway, Obama’s meddling in the primary removes the one reason they had not done so till now.

2] While Lying Liz has pretended to be a progressive, nobody with half-a-brain and even a brief overview of her career believed that lie. However, Bernie foolishly refrained from criticizing her once the election campaign began. Given her actions since then, especially in the past month- I am guessing that many in his campaign were eager to tear her a new one. Now that she has publicly admitted her role as a DNC-appointed spoiler for progressive voters- expect the Bernie campaign to go after her. And they will have to, because there is no realistic option to that course of action. Of course, Bernie could be stupid (or cynical) enough to not challenge her bullshit- but realistically we are all going to gothere, whether he likes it or not.

3] Bernie has also refrained from any attacks on Joe Biden’s cognitive ability or talking about how the Biden family enriched themselves because of the various political offices he held. While this was kinda acceptable when Biden was slowly sinking in the polls and the centrist vote was split, they just cannot afford to do this now. While it is far more likely that most of the attacking on these issues will be done by Bernie surrogates, sooner or later things will reach a point when Biden’s obvious dementia will be an issue for open public discussion. Once again, even if Bernie does not want to there- he has no recourse. More importantly, his second-order surrogates are already going after Biden’s cognitive status. And you can bet that Trump is going to push those two narratives on a massive scale, even if Bernie does not. One way or the other, both issues will enter the domain of political campaigning in a big way. The general direction, as they say, is set.

It is of course possible that Bernie does not do any of this and ends up losing like he did in 2016. However doing so in 2020 carries very different implications from doing it four years ago. In the first campaign, he was the relatively unknown newcomer who was talking about ideas that were popular but almost never mentioned by other politicians. 2020 is likely the last time he will run for the nomination and presidency. To put it another way, if he is not seen as putting everything in this campaign, he will lose the following he has built and have no legacy- at least of the type he seems to crave. He has no option but to go on the offensive now..

I am curious to see how Bloomberg performs in the Super Tuesday states today. Will he keep sucking votes from Biden? Will he stay in the race after tomorrow. Who knows? Will write about my analysis of today’s primaries in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 2

February 28, 2020 6 comments

In the previous post of this series, I wrote about the ongoing shitshow of Iowa’s 2020 democratic primary caucus and the better-run New Hampshire primary. I also wrote a bit about the future- specifically how only Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg have any future prospects after Nevada and South Carolina. Since then, a few things have happened. Firstly, the Iowa’s shitshow still hasn’t been resolved. Yes, you is correct- it is still going on. Many of you might also know that Bernie won a resounding victory in the Nevada Caucus and ended up getting almost twice the number of votes as his nearest opponent- as well as the majority of delegates from that state. We also had the pleasure of watching mini-Mike Bloomberg implode in front of a large national audience in his first appearance at a debate. And he did not show any signs of improvement in his more recent second appearance. Of course, he is still spending dozens of million dollars per day on TV and web advertisements- which I guess is good news for the people he is currently employing.

So let us begin by talking about Bloomberg. In my opinion, he has no realistic chance of winning the presidential election against Trump. Here is why.. For starters, he has zero public presence and he just cannot help coming across as an out of touch elitist billionaire with serious personal insecurities. Even the character of Mr. Burns in ‘The Simpsons’ is far more likable that Bloomberg. In contrast, even though Trump might be worth only a couple of billion, he has a much better understanding of how average people, live, think and most importantly- want to see. It does not help that Mike Bloomberg has as many skeletons in his closet as Trump, and nowhere near the charm of Trump to let potential voters ignore them. Here is an example to help you understand what I am getting at. Ever wonder why Harvey Weinstein and Bill Cosby ended up in jail for what they did to women over these years, but equally lecherous but handsome or otherwise desirable male actors and musicians almost always get a free pass.

Yes, the public will accept and forgive people who are assholes if they are charming and open about their behavior. Many of you might remember how democrat idiots thought that the release of that “pussy grab” tape would sink Trump’s 2016 campaign. But it did not and was pretty easy to understand why- if you were not a credentialed incestuous circle-jerker. But in case a few of you don’t, let me explain. See.. the personal morality of politicians was an issue only as long as most people had a prosperous and stable life. That is why the Monica Lewinsky scandal could have only become a big issue in the late 1990s- and even then it did not hurt Bill Clinton’s image to any appreciable extent. More importantly, people stop caring about that sort of bullshit once socio-economic conditions start deteriorating. I bet you that people would have looked the other way had Obama openly cheated on his wife with multiple white women, IF he had delivered on economically populist policies. Most people care far more about outcomes than image.

Don’t believe me? Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008, but only 65.9 million in 2012- in spite of the population of USA increasing by a few million during that time-span. And you know why.. because he failed to deliver on the populist stuff he vaguely hinted at during the 2008 electoral campaign. Even though MikeCA won’t like to hear this, the rise of Trump is best understood as the logical consequence of the unwillingness and inability of Obama to deliver on his pre-election populist promises. In fact, Obama would have lost the 2012 election if Republicans had fielded even a moderately populist candidate instead of a smug corporate asshole aka Mitt Romney. To make a long story short, corporatist candidates such as Bloomberg and even Biden (let alone Warren and Buttboy) will lose to a fake populist such as Trump in the general election.

Of course, this hasn’t stopped the incompetent democratic establishment from hatching ever more hilarious plans to stop Sanders via procedural bullshit. And mark my words, they will try to pull of such a stupid scheme even if Sanders wins over 50% of the delegates. Yes.. I am serious about that scenario and to understand why, please read the linked article above to see the incredible amount of magical thinking these idiots are capable of. One noteworthy example include recruiting Obama’s wife and some no-name senator who did not even participate in this primary as the unity nominees. At this stage, I would not be surprised if they tried to rope in Hillary Clinton and her forgettable VP candidate from 2016 as the nominees. To put it another way, they would rather have four more years of Trump than a democratic nominee who is not “centrist”, in spite of the failure of candidates such as Al Gore, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton in the past few presidential elections.

I am sure that MikeCA will jump in to tell us how this is all wrong and that the democratic establishment actually cares about the plight of average voters. Newsflash- it does not, and has not given a fuck about non-professional class voters since the mid 1970s. Since we are already close to a thousand words, I will wrap this post now. In the next part, I will talk about the results of the South Caroline primary, Joe Biden’s cognitive status and why Bernie towing the line of democratic establishment on cultural issues is such a bad idea.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 1

February 13, 2020 8 comments

Regular readers of my blog might remember that I wrote a few posts in 2015 and 2016 about my thoughts on the 2016 presidential election- party primaries as well as actual electoral campaign. Not to toot my horn too much (again), but I correctly predicted that Trump would win republican party nomination within a few weeks of entering the race and how he would defeat Hilary in the general election as early as February 2016. More importantly, I never changed my opinion about both outcomes based on the latest bullshit narratives and lies pumped out by decrepit and dying corporate media outlets such as NYT, WP, CNN, MSNBC etc. As it turned out, my assessment was more correct than every single one of those incestuous presstitutes.. also known as “credentialed journalists”.. who were (and still are) each paid millions of dollars per year by those outlets. I can sense that MikeCA will get triggered by this paragraph as I am writing it.. lol.

I initially considered not writing about this quadrennial election cycle, because I know it is going to be a much bigger shitshow than the previous one. But after some more thought, and one small trial balloon, have decided to write about it. I will, however, not focus on every shitshow and fake controversy along the way because there will be tons of them. Furthermore, I write as a hobby and despite of what MikeCA might want to believe, I have not made a single cent out of writing this blog or any other. With that out of the way, let me recommend a new and interesting article by Matt Taibbi which summarizes a possibility which I also increasingly see as being very likely. The very short version of that article is as follows: Bernie will win the party nomination outright or get a plurality of delegates in 2020 for the same reasons Trump did in 2016. This is likely since Bernie, like Trump, has a very devoted and significant core of voter support while those opposing him are competing against each other to win the votes of those who are fine with the status quo.

Readers might have noticed how dying corporate media outlets have been busy pumping up each establishment candidate in succession only to see them deflate in a spectacular fashion and then move on to the next one. First they were trying to sell the inevitability of Biden, then it was the summer of Liz Warren, the fall of McKinsey Buttboy and now the rise of that woman who abuses her staff. As things stand today, Biden’s primary campaign, like the candidate, is rapidly falling apart after getting walloped in Iowa and New Hampshire. Lying Harvard lady.. I mean, Elizabeth Warren.. is doing no better, especially given the time and money she invested in both states. McKinsey Buttboy is trying to pull a Juan Guaido even though he has close to zero support among non-white and non-affluent white voters. Did I mention that Pyscho boss-lady has no realistic path beyond New Hampshire. And we haven’t even talked about the effect of the two billionaires aka Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg’s campaigns in later states.

Let us first talk about the recent Iowa primary.. well, the parts other than the purposely botched caucus and McKinsey Buttboy declaring victory before even a single partial result was declared. You might have heard that the aggregate turnout at that state caucus this year was lower than 2020. Well, the total turnout this year was higher than 2016 but lower than 2008. The turnout of youth voters (as a percentage of total) was however slightly higher than 2008 and much higher than 2016. While this is not especially good, it is certainly not bad- especially for a party which has blown so much political capital because of their obsession with the bullshit RussiaGate and UkraineGate investigations and predictably unsuccessful attempt at removing Trump through impeachment. I mean.. you cannot seriously expect record-breaking turnout at the primary of a party whose establishment is pushing nonsense that many of their potential voters don’t give a flying fuck about. And they kept changing the caucus site locations till the day before primary.

Moving on to the New Hampshire democrat primary, the turnout this year was significantly higher than 2016 and will probably exceed 2008. Also, unlike the shitshow of Iowa’s primary the one in New Hampshire went well and results were available later that night. I probably do not have to tell you that Bernie got the most votes, just like he did in Iowa. Sure, the victory margin was less than 2016 because a field with over eight candidates (at least five major ones) has different dynamics than an election with just two. In my opinion, Elizabeth Warren was the biggest loser coming out of that primary since her two consecutive poor performances and tepid support in subsequent states ensures that her campaign (barring some Deus Ex Machina twist) is, for all practical purposes, dead. Even though Amy Klobuchar, aka Psycho boss-woman, did better than expected- her campaign is also dead since she has really poor numbers in upcoming states.

Moving on to McKinsey Buttboy, who was the corporate media darling before Pyscho boss-lady, his campaign will probably hand around till South Carolina or more likely super Tuesday- when it becomes glaringly obvious to his backers that he has no chance. While Biden has been utterly humiliated due to his poor showing in the first two primaries, I would not consider his campaign dead until he is defeated or flounders badly in Nevada and South Carolina. While it is true that his campaign does not have much money and big donors are increasingly skeptical of his chances, older Bill Cosby-worshiping blacks still haven’t deserted him en masse yet. We also have to factor in that bland neoliberal billionaires such as Tom Steyer are pretty competitive in the stupid.. I mean southern.. states. Did I mention that Bloomberg has also setup some committee which large donors can join for free if they pledge to not support any other candidates?

As some have already said, it increasingly appears that the democratic primary will be between Bernie and Bloomberg. Sure.. something totally unexpected can change this building trend but the simple fact is that Bernie has (by far) the largest grassroots support and capability to raise funds from them while Bloomberg is among the ten richest men in USA. One more thing.. the democratic party will lose 2020 presidential election if it is stupid enough to choose Bloomberg as their candidate for reasons I will explain in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?