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Posts Tagged ‘Democrats’

Attempting to Impeach Trump Will be Disastrous for Democratic Party

October 4, 2019 12 comments

By now, most of you must have heard about the latest drive by democrats to impeach Trump aka the orange troll. As Michael Tracey posted a few days ago, Ukraine-gate is the perfect extension of the failed ‘Russia’ narrative. In that article he wrote that “if Donald Trump were on the phone with the president of Angola or Singapore appearing to solicit foreign assistance, it would barely register on the outrage meter”. The point being that Ukraine-gate is an inferior surrogate for the “Russia” and “Putin” narrative which democrats have tried to push for the past three years. It is telling that their replacement narrative is a hastily assembled and far shoddier version of “Russia-gate”. Then again, professional politicians in declining post-industrial countries and their famously credentialed flunkies are not known for their ability, competence or imagination.

As many of you have also seen, establishment democrats and their ass-kissers in MSM are busy trying to concoct news of Trump’s imminent impeachment. They seem to under the impression that their repeated and failed attempts to unseat Trump using similar techniques have remained unnoticed by the general public. Or maybe they never heard the famous children’s tale about the boy who cried wolf. I cannot resist pointing out that their attempts to impeach the orange troll using made-up bullshit about his alleged attempts to collude with the current president of Ukraine are especially pathetic, given that there are far more legitimate reasons to impeach him. We can start with how Trump uses his post to increase occupancy at his hotels, his continued support for failing Saudi war against Yemen, using extra-legal means to stop legal immigration etc.

But democrats, in their infinite stupidity, have decided that trying to impeach orange troll based on gossip and hearsay is the hill on which they want to die. So here are some my thoughts and predictions on this topic. I have a feeling that certain readers (MikeCA?) are going to really dislike my take on this doomed venture. And yes.. I think that attempts to impeach Trump based on the manufactured scandal of Ukraine-gate is likely to backfire on democrats during the 2020 election season. But why do I think it is a disastrous idea? Haven’t all the talking heads on cable news told you that Trump will fall, just like Nixon. Then again.. they also told everybody, stupid enough to believe them, that the Mueller report was guaranteed to put Trump behind bars. We all know how that worked out.. don’t we? So without further ado, here are the main reasons why attempts by democrats to impeach Trump is a bad idea.

1] Trump is not Nixon and 2019 is not 1974. You must have come across extensive instances of comparison between Trump and Nixon on cable TV “news” and a couple of national newspapers, for the past three years. Yes.. that is right, many mainstream presstitutes are under the delusion that repeating Trump’s and Nixon’s name in the same sentence will conjure up the legislative and popular will to impeach the former. So let us quickly talk about why Nixon resigned under the threat of impeachment. The main reasons for his resignation were as follows: a] Nixon was widely disliked among his own party because of how many others he had run over to attain power; b] The political establishment needed a fall guy for the humiliating defeat in Vietnam, exposure of secret bombing campaign in Indochina, contemporaneous exposure of many illegal government programs and stagflation; c] But most importantly, Nixon was a creature of the political establishment and lacked significant independent support from voters.

2] Trying to impeach Trump makes him look like victim. In their boneheaded pursuit to avenge the loss of the 2016 presidential election, democrats have achieved the almost impossible feat of making Trump look like the victim to a large percentage of the electorate. Contrary to what ivy-league educated idiots believe, most people aren’t stupid enough to believe politicians. Few believe that Hunter Biden getting 50k per month to serve on a Ukrainian companies board of directors in an area in which he had no previous experience was kosher. The same applies for all the high-paying jobs held by Chelsea Clinton. Nor do they believe that Trump or his progeny are paragons of entrepreneurship and competence. Furthermore, it is common knowledge that american presidents have (especially over past 30-40 years) used their office to push for all sorts of personal favors and gains from domestic corporations and foreign governments. Trump’s behavior is widely seen as the rule, not the exception.

3] Attempts to impeach Trump will overshadow the democratic primary and the general election. As many others have previously pointed out, the shit-show of multiple impeachment hearings and proceedings are guaranteed to overshadow the democratic primary contest to the extent that any of Trump’s tweets is going to garner far more media attention than major electoral promises made by the candidates. Even worse, all candidates will have to join in this madness and spend a good percentage of their public appearances talking about impeachment rather than why they are the better candidate. To make things even more horrible, they will have to deal with a situation where the democrat-controlled house votes to impeach Trump but the senate chooses to keep him in office. Have democrats considered the inevitable fallout from a failed attempt to remove Trump from office and what it will do to the voter-base of both parties?

4] Trump will exploit a failed impeachment and its fallout to the maximum. See.. before the latest democratic brain-fart, Trump did not have much to show for the wild promises he made during the 2016 campaign. His trade war against China was going badly, he was unable to build the wall, the promised manufacturing jobs were not coming back, his policies were inconsistent and a mess, he almost ended up alienating gun owners and much more. In other words, his presidency had been a sad failure for everyone except a few charlatans in his administration. But with impeachment over a made-up controversy looming, the orange troll finally has something approaching a genuine reason as to why he was unable to deliver on his ridiculous promises. He can now credibly claim that he is the target of an “legal” coup perpetrated by establishment politicians and the deep-state. You can bet that he will promote that narrative at every chance.

Might write a followup post to this one, depending on reader responses.

What do you think? Comments?

Democrat Attempts to Impeach Trump Will Help Him Get Re-Elected

June 18, 2019 4 comments

Today, I came across a couple of news items that increase the likelihood of Trump winning the 2020 presidential election. The first was a ‘leaked’ poll which allegedly showed that more than a few democrats could defeat Trump. The second was a speech by Biden in which he used this poll to promise that he would beat Trump, not only in mid-western states which Hillary lost in 2016 but also, in others such as Georgia, Texas and South Carolina. So why do I think that these two apparently positive bits of news for democrats are harbingers of a likely Trump victory in 2020? Well.. because I remember 2016, or more precisely how polls done as late at October of that year strongly suggested Hillary would won states such as Georgia and South Carolina. We all know how that turned out. But why do I think 2020 could be like 2016?

Let me start by restating the obvious. Establishment democrats haven’t learnt anything from their defeat in the 2016 election. Even worse, they seem to to have interpreted their meager gains in the 2018 election as evidence of an electorate which now hates Trump, rather than a reaction to his comically inept attempts at destroying Obamacare in addition to being unable to deliver on his election promises about reversing outsourcing etc. They seem to believe that promising a return to “norms”, throwing a bit more money at Obamacare and making some noises about education and job training will guarantee a win in 2020. In other words, they are still desperately clinging to the idea that Trump is an aberration and things will magically go back to the way ‘they used to be’ before the fateful midnight of November 8, 2016.

As many of you know, I do not think Trump is an aberration (link 1, link 2). In fact, I blame the deliberate failure of the previous neoliberal grifter-in-chief aka Obama to deliver real substantive reform in aftermath of 2008 global financial crisis as the most important reason for rise of Trump. Think about it.. would a character like that orange buffoon have gotten any traction in national politics, let alone won the presidency against all odds, if the majority of people still had any faith in the establishment and institutions of this country? Trump is therefore best understood as the crazy clown who appeared viable to a majority only because the vision and choices offered by the establishment were rotten. Some of you might remember that Hillary’s unfavorability ratings during the 2016 electoral season were often higher than Trump.

Now let us talk about how the establishment democrat obsession with Trump getting impeached will likely help him to win the 2020 election. As many of you know, establishment democrats and their supporters in media, hollywood etc spent about two years hallucinating about a future where the “Mueller Report” would magically implicate Trump in some high crime that would lead to his immediate impeachment and arrest. Well.. the report has been out for almost two months and it was unable to find evidence that Trump or his gang of idiots colluded with Russia or indeed “obstructed” justice in a manner which would stand in a court of law. The report, on which establishment democrats and public LIEbrals put so much hope, turned out to be damp squib. Of course, this did not change the narrative of establishment democrats and their MSM cronies.

To make matters worse, partisan democrat voters (who are over-represented in primaries) have become even more convinced and vocal about the need to impeach Trump despite the lack of evidence that he is anything more than a greedy and lecherous troll who used to be real-estate developer. We are now seeing a rapidly increasing amount of pressure on Pelosi and other democrat leaders to ‘do something’ and impeach Trump, or at least start the pre-impeachment investigation. While the wheels on that shitshow have not started moving yet, it is becoming increasingly likely that we will see some action on that front by the end of this year. But why is demanding the impeachment of Trump, or even starting the pre-impeachment farce.. I mean ‘investigation’.. such a bad idea? What could go wrong?

Well.. how about the fact that a non-stop barrage of intentional negative reporting by MSM on Trump has not moved his poll numbers much- either way. Such reporting has, if anything, destroyed whatever residual credibility they used to have prior to his election. It is telling that the MSM has remained focused on “collusion”. “Putin” and “Russia” (and now “obstruction of justice”) while ignoring all the other shady and outright illegal stuff which Trump had done- and it is one long list. From making up false valuations for his properties to either get loans or dodge taxes, promoting his DC hotel to earn extra income from foreign countries, having a son-in-law with really shady business dealings, being bought off by MBS and that guy who currently rules UAE to bend all sorts of rules for them and a whole lot more.

My point is that Trump has done enough shady and illegal things to get himself impeached and locked up- but colluding with Russia and Putin is not one of them. It is therefore incredibly stupid for democrats to focus on the one crime of which he is not guilty. Then again, they may be doing so because they are out of ideas and live in a “ivy-league” bubble full of other disconnected and incompetent elites. Either way, these dumbfucks don’t seem to understand or care that the vast majority of voters are far more concerned about whether they can afford whatever passes for healthcare in USA, have a job that pays and is stable enough to keep them going for the next year, whether they can ever afford a half-decent house or car etc. Only a section of primary voters (mostly baby-boomers) give a fuck about the whole Russia-Putin fairytale.

Unfortunately, these accursed boomers are over-represented in democratic primaries. We can therefore expect all the presidential candidates to make increasingly shrill and comic promises about impeaching Trump for “collusion” and “obstruction of justice”- in spite of there being no legally sound evidence for either. This stupid competition to out-hawk each other on this issue is going to eclipse the discussion of other more relevant issues. Eventually, we will reach a point when the public platform for most democratic candidates is centered around Trump- whether it is impeaching him, repeatedly telling us that “he is a bad bad man” and invoking the “norms fairy” aka how things will go back to normal once he is gone. While this might win somebody the primary, it is unlikely to ensure a high turnout in the general election.. like 2016.

More problematically, accusing Trump of the one or two crimes he did not commit (while ignoring the many others he did) makes him look like the victim of an establishment conspiracy. It is not secret than the MSM has no credibility beyond partisan democrats and a few affluent republicans. Harping on fictional crimes, without strong corroborative evidence, is going to further alienate their non-partisan audience and allow Trump to successfully spin his persecution by the MSM as martyrdom. Between this and selecting an establishment hack with little popular support beyond partisan democrats (Biden, McKinsey Buttboy, Harris, Warren), it seems increasingly likely that 2020 will be a replay of the 2016 shitshow- albeit on a much bigger scale.

What do you think? Comments?

2019 and 2020 Will be Much Bigger Shitshows than 2015 and 2016

May 30, 2019 14 comments

As regular readers know, I often make predictions on a number of topics which later turn out to be right (or pretty close) with a high rate of success. More importantly, I am able to accurately identify the underlying dynamics, trends and forces responsible for the ultimate outcomes. Now let me make another seemingly obvious prediction, but with far greater insight and details than possible for quacks.. I mean credentialed “experts”. My prediction is that 2019 and 2020 will be far larger and more problematic shitshows than 2015 and 2016. Some of you (MikeCA?) might argue that every day since the election of Trump has been a shitshow.. and that is technically sorta true. But if you think that 2017 and 2018 were shitshows, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

There are many reasons why this period of 1.5 years will be an epic meta-shitshow of the likes we haven’t witnessed in living memory. However, it is not simply the sheer number or magnitude of individual shitshows that will make this period memorable, but how one shitshow will feed into another and so on.. you know, synergy. But before we go there, let us talk about why 2015 and 2016 marked the beginning of our current era of shitshows. It all began with an orange Buffoon riding down a gaudy escalator alongside a trophy wife with a face pumped full of cosmetic Botox. Initially it seemed that his campaign for the republican presidential nomination was just another publicity stunt to obtain a larger payout from the reality show in which he was starring.

However it became obvious to me within 4-6 weeks that his outrageous and colorful persona had far more public support than effete Washington DC ‘insiders’ realized. And yes.. I never changed my opinion on that issue and turned out be right. And ya.. I also predicted he would win against Hillary in early 2016, even at times when even the most radical presstitues.. I mean journalists.. thought that HRC might somehow prevail against him on election day. I also explored the real reasons why HRC would lose to that buffoon– before the election took place. FYI- majority of my accurate predictions have been about issues and topics other than Trump. But enough about the orange buffoon. Let us now talk about Brexit- more precisely, why the ‘remain’ side lost.

MSM news outlets in that rapidly decaying country (UK) want you to believe that Brexit was due to the stupidity of poorly educated people in that country. However a simple look at the geography of that vote tells you all you need about Brexit. Long story short, post-2008 austerity measures in UK hit parts of the country that are not London pretty hard. People who live in those regions, aka most of that country, got progressively disillusioned with the shitty status quo. They expressed their discontent by voting against something which stood as a placeholder for the widely reviled status quo. You know.. just like people in the Mid-West finally got tired of Obama’s 8-year long lie about “Hope and Change” voted for Trump over the symbol of continuity aka HRC.

But both these shocks to the Establishment, their aftermath and colorful rhetoric accompanying both those changes are nothing compared to what we will witness in 2019 and 2020. While I will restrict my predictions to USA, things are also likely to get interesting in other parts of the world- maybe a bit too interesting. But before we go to the list, a word of caution. The most obvious reasons are unlikely to be the most consequential. The less glamorous reasons, further down the list, carry far more weight than the shiny but superficial ones which are obvious. So let us start by listing them in order of apparent obviousness.

1] Ever since Trump won the republican nomination in mid-2016, democratic establishment and deep state types have been trying to find enough dirt to stop his victory in the 2016 presidential election (which they failed) or impeach him. As things stand today, they have not uncovered anything more scandalous than Trump getting his disgraced lawyer to pay hush money to two women he had sex with while married to his current wife. While this revelation does provide fodder for supermarket tabloids, it is totally unsurprising and in line with Trump’s past behavior. More importantly, the Mueller investigation has not uncovered evidence of “collusion” between Trump and Russia or Putin. Nor has it shown any definitive evidence for obstruction of justice by Trump. And I know MikeCA will have something to say about my characterization of that report.

But these severe setbacks have not stopped an increasing number of democrats from demanding his impeachment, because face it.. they always knew he was “guilty” of something impeachable. Today, the patron saint of pro-impeachment brigade aka Robert Mueller came out and all but openly encouraged democrats to start the impeachment process, even though his report does not contain enough evidence to prosecute Trump for either “collusion” or obstruction of justice. And ya.. I am aware of the legalese bullshit about not being able to exonerate him- but let us get real, people are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. It also helps to be rich and white, but that is a topic for another post. My prediction is that democrats will initiate pre-impeachment proceedings against Trump, irrespective of potential negative effects it might have on their electoral prospects in 2020. But how does this translate into a nasty shitshow?

Well.. for a few reasons. Firstly, it is unlikely Trump will be impeached, tried and made to resign before November 3, 2020. Secondly, the pre-impeachment investigation is going to be long and highly contentious. It will also overshadow democratic primaries and possibly the presidential election to such an extent that other issues will be effectively sidelined. So be prepared for a democratic primary in which candidates offer endless paeans to bipartisanship, civility in politics, reestablishing “norms” and impeaching Trump at the expense of all the other stuff most voters in the general election actually care about. You know.. stuff like antitrust action against various monopolies and oligopolies, medicare for all, doing something about student debt etc. Think of HRCs “what will the children think” 2016 campaign on steroids. But in some ways, this will be smallest shitshow of them all.

2] Stupid old losers who constitute a majority of democratic primary voters in large states seem to be enamored by “gun control” aka banning civilian ownership of guns. Given that everyone in the packed clown car of democratic candidates is expected to appeal to them, one should expect increasingly shrill and strident anti-gun ownership rhetoric. While appealing to these losers might help one win the primary and a few coastal states in general, it is almost guaranteed to backfire in swing states- especially those with large rural and semi-urban populations. Now add in a few random mass shootings (almost inevitable?) between now and Nov 3, 2020 and you can imagine how nutty this could get. Expect the Democratic house to pass one or more atrociously written anti-gun ownership laws and a few high profile court cases.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, we have seen a recent trend by private corporate monopolies/ oligopolies based in heavily democratic states to deny services based on ideology. Here are a few recent examples.. Software Maker Salesforce Tells Gun Retailers to Stop Selling AR-15s, YouTube Alternatives for Gun Videos & Content Creators and Bank of America to Stop Financing Makers of Military-Style Guns. I, for one, don’t see how pissing off millions of well-armed and single-issue voters who live in gun-ownership friendly jurisdictions is a smart idea when your party has to win their votes in 2020. Then again, this is the same party which think that Joe Biden in 2020 would make the best general election candidate. Or maybe the Democrats don’t want to really win national elections. Who knows..

The large number of democratic candidates vying for the party nomination will make things even weirder than the republican field in 2016. We have all seen how small campaigns which use far less costly traditional advertising and advisers can prevail over larger “mainstream” operations. Between this and the proliferation of small donors, expect far more candidates to remain in the race even after the first major primaries are over. And the DNC and other party establishment are going to try hard, and ineffectually, to stop Bernie by hook or crook. Don’t be surprised if the 2020 democratic convention is held under even more acrimonious circumstances than 2016. And there will be anonymous leaks, just like last time. It is going to get real ugly by mid 2020.

3] Let us now turn to the less obvious, but far more consequential, trends which promise to make 2019 and 2020 the biggest shitshows in living memory. Long story short, we are due for at least three independent nasty blowbacks from Trump’s foreign and trade policies. Let us start by talking about Iran or more precisely how his stupid policy towards that country has the potential to backfire in a spectacularly disastrous manner. It is no secret that idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton, urged on by Zionists and Saudis, are trying to start a war. What they don’t understand, or are willing to understand, is that any war with Iran in addition being unwinnable would make the Iraq misadventure look like quaint in comparison. The outcome of such a war would include Iran finally developing nuclear weapons (perhaps with Chinese assistance), prolonged and massive oil shortages with resultant price hikes and many other bad long-term effects (on USA).

Moving on.. Kim Jon-un has repeatedly conveyed to USA that unless economic sanctions are at least partially removed by end of 2019, he will restart testing ICBMs. My guess is that DPRK will demonstrate an entirely solid-fueled ICBM in early 2020, unless Trump and the idiots running “foreign policy” in USA openly abandon the idea of DPRK giving up its nukes and ICBMS- because the later ain’t going to happen. Which means that sometime in 2020, Trump will have to decide on how to respond to new ICBM and perhaps even nuclear tests by DPRK. To make matters even more interesting, this escalation will likely occur around the same time as Iran is likely to finally leave the JCPOA and restart its uranium enrichment program at maximum capacity. But wait.. it gets even better, or worse, depending on your viewpoint.

As most of you know by now, Trump is involved in an unwinnable trade-war with China. And here is why.. China’s economy and manufacturing capacity is far larger than USA in real terms. While the american economy and system will implode without Chinese imports, the converse is not true. There is also no other country in the world that has as large, varied and sophisticated a manufacturing base as China. Did I mention that USA and rest of the “West” are economically stagnant, demand saturated and in overall decline. China is not going to compromise on Huawei, give in to demands of american corporations or basically change anything significant about how it works or does business. It is the USA and rest of “West” that will have to ultimately eat crow. And they will start hurting USA by screwing over Boeing and make life interesting for every american corporation which does significant amounts of business there or dependent on its exports.

Tensions with Russia could exacerbate further given the current political climate in USA and provide opportunity for yet another shitshow. Did I mention how conflicts between internet monopolies and right wingers could spill into the real world with potentially disastrous results for the former. To summarize, the rest of 2019 and whole of 2020 will almost certainly witness far larger and problematic shitshows than anything in living memory. Even worse, many of these shitshows could feed into each other to create meta-shitshows.

What do you think? Comments?

Could Oprah Winfrey Win Against Donald Trump in 2020 Election: 2

January 14, 2018 7 comments

In the previous post of this series, I wrote about why Oprah Winfrey might be a much better presidential candidate for the democratic party that most of it current slate of generic neoliberal candidates. Some readers appeared to think that I was endorsing such an action. The truth is a bit different. The point I was trying to make was that somebody like Oprah was far more likely to win a presidential election against Trump or any other republican than somebody like Booker, Gillibrand, Harris or any other talentless neoliberal fraud.

Having said that, let us now try to answer some of the potential objections raised in the comment section of that post..

1] More than one person (1, 2) noted that Oprah does not seem to have any overall principle and that she is just a far more successful main-stream female version of Alex Jones. You know what.. I can certainly agree with both those points. But then ask yourself- what was the guiding principle behind Clinton, Bush43, Obama, Trump and pretty much every person elected to that office? Were they in it for anything beyond gaining power, becoming famous and using it to make money in their later years.Can you think of a single president who ran for office for reasons that were not completely selfish and self-serving?

Also, when did people who pushed scams and lies become ineligible for that office to date? Do you remember Bush41 and his infamous pledge on taxes and lies about Iraqi atrocities in Kuwait? What about the many lies, scams and neoliberal deregulations pushed by Clinton42? What about Bush43 and his extremely expensive lies about Iraqi WMDs? What about Obama44 and his many lies about standing up for the average person? To make a long story short, most people elected to be president have always been greedy, vain and amoral hucksters. An Oprah presidency would not represent a deviation from this established norm.

2] One comment (3) suggested that white and latino men would not vote for a black woman. But would that matter? You see, the majority of white men have voted for the republican presidential candidate for the last 20-30 years. Guess what, we still had Clinton42, Obama44 and almost had Gore and Kerry. To put it another way, the vote of white men is not that important for democratic candidates in the presidential election. In fact, HRC could have won in 2016 if the number of blacks voting for her was similar to Obama in 2012. Democrats know that they will not get the majority of blue-collar white male votes.

One of the more interesting effects of Trump’s presidency has been the extent to which it has resulted in increased support for democrats among Hispanics, especially the younger ones. In other words, it would be extremely easy for democrats to gain new Hispanic voters and increase turnout even if their candidate was a black woman. While latino men may not like voting for a black woman, the other option (a republican presidency and congress) is far worse. So, ya, I do not foresee much of a problem with getting latino men to vote for a black woman.

3] I also think that her lack of professional political experience is no barrier to people voting for her, largely because so many “professional” politicians at both the national and state level have not delivered for anybody other than themselves and their rich donors. Also, that is the reason Trump won the republican nomination and the presidency. In other words, her lack of political experience is actually a plus if she decides to run for the presidency. Furthermore, even a brief overview of her interviews over the years suggests that she is a very smart woman- even if she has used that talent mainly to enrich herself.

The election of Trump in 2016 has also changed public expectations of who is seen as electable and what speech or behavior such a person can get away with. Even a series of major scandal concocted by right-wing media types about Oprah is unlikely to affect her chances of winning the democratic candidacy or presidency, largely because democratic and, increasingly, unaffiliated voters simply do not care as long as the person in question was seen as an improvement over Trump. Also, the negative effects of ‘tax reforms’ and other neoliberal policies passed by the republicans will be too evident in 2020 for people to care about some right-wing media inspired personal gossip about the democratic candidate.

4] We also cannot discount the possibility that Oprah might decide that promising single payer health care, inexpensive university education etc is a far better strategy than just sticking to the tired and discredited neoliberal line. She has, in the past, repeatedly shown a talent for picking up emerging trends which turned out to be highly profitable for her later. You should not, therefore, be surprised if she decides to go ‘full Bernie’. I should add that doing so would be quite easy for her since she has never been publicly associated with neoliberal policy positions in the past. Moreover, she could use her new public positions on those issues as a brand differentiator between her and other establishment democrats in the primaries.

Such a strategy would be particularly devastating against establishment democrats such as Booker, Harris and Gillibrand who are little better than third-rate actors spouting neoliberal “commonsense” bullshit. I mean.. why would consumers prefer third-rate imitators when they can get the first-class professional, especially if she goes full-bore populist. I should also point out that her long and generally well-liked tenure as a TV show host makes her far less likely to face the kind of public distrust and voter apathy that plagued HRCs campaign in 2016.

To be clear, I am not saying she would make a good, let alone great, president. My point is that she would be an almost unstoppable candidate in the current political environment and would likely win in a general election against Trump or any other republican candidate.

What do you think? Comments?

Could Oprah Winfrey Win Against Donald Trump in 2020 Election: 1

January 10, 2018 11 comments

By now, everyone on the internet must have read about rumors that the famous talk-show host and billionaire, Oprah Winfrey, is considering a run for the presidency in 2020. The public and media reaction thus far be divided into broad categories. Some see it as a bad idea and yet another sign at continued american decline into becoming an internationally irrelevant country. Others see it a good thing and believe she has a high chance of success. Here is my take on it..

1] First, let us start by looking at a list of democrats who might run for the party presidential ticket in 2020. With the notable exception of Bernie Sanders, other democratic candidates are simply incapable of inspiring enough non-voters and independents to go out and vote for them on election day. Even worse, many supposed rising “stars” such as Corey Booker, Joe Biden, Deval Patrick, Kamala Harris, Martin O’Malley, Kirsten Gillibrand etc are neoliberal clones who simply do not have the appeal such candidates used to have in the pre-2008 era.

In other words, with the exception of Bernie Sanders the democratic party simply does not have a possible 2020 presidential candidate who can inspire non-partisan voters to vote for him or her. As we saw in the 2016 election, the ability to inspire your own voters to come out and vote for you made all the difference between victory and defeat. Furthermore, the almost certain lack of improvement in condition for most people between now the 2020 election makes it highly likely that candidates who try to run as the harbingers of the old status quo will not win that election.

2] The democratic party’s pathetic and sad obsession with Trump’s alleged “collusion with Putin” and his mental health is unlikely to make any difference in the end. As I have said in previous posts, the obsession of establishment democrats and corporate media with the “russia collusion story” is increasingly seen by average people as signs of their desperation and frustration, rather than evidence of any real crime. I mean.. if democrats they had evidence for anything close to what they claim, Trump would have been impeached or jailed by now.

Most people outside of partisan democratic voters see all investigations into, and leaks about, “Trump-Russia” and “Trump-Putin” connections as little more than an attempt at witch-hunting by deep-state and establishment types. Most relevantly for 2020, almost a year of investigations and leaks have not improved the ratings of the democratic party and its electoral candidates beyond a level of statistical significance. Remember that the vaguely centrist democratic candidate for the recent Alabama senate election won by less than 2% even though the republican candidate was an alleged child molester and batshit crazy.

3] The election of Trump in 2016 has made every public figure of some fame and wealth start considering a run for some sort of electoral office. Why bribe.. I mean ‘lobby’ elected officials when you can just become one and pass laws and rules to benefit yourself? That is why people such as the rich aspie known as Mark Zuckerberg have demonstrated interest in running for public office- in his case, by pretending to act like a human being. And he is not alone. More than a few famous actors, rich public loudmouths and other assorted insufferables will seriously consider running for the 2020 democratic ticket, a seat in the house or governorship.

But why is this happening now? Why did it not occur in the past? Well.. the short answer is that most people have lost faith in experts or professionals, largely because they have been exposed as posturing incompetents and two-faced liars. In the case of democratic party, the two presidential terms of Obama were nothing more than an 8-year long neoliberal disaster for the 99%. That is why the democrats lost so many governorships and seats in state legislatures to republicans during that period. To put it another way, trying to win elections by invoking your ivy-league education, credentials or soaring rhetoric is no longer a viable strategy outside a few coastal states.

But what does any of this have to do with Oprah’s chances of winning as a democratic party candidate in 2020? What makes her more or less likely to win against Trump or any other republican candidate than your generic establishment democratic politician.

4] Oprah, in my opinion, is a far better presidential candidate for democrats than their stable of generic neoliberal types for the following reasons. a] She has massive name recognition and is seen as a political outsider, both of which helped Trump win the presidency in 2016. b] Having a connection with the democratic party but no strong positions on most major issues allows her to craft her positions on them in ways that are not possible for most other democratic candidates, and that again is similar to what helped Trump in 2016. c] She has very good media presence and the ability to play the media far better than so-called “professional” politicians, which is once again like Trump in 2016. d] She is a far smarter self-promoter and has a much better grasp of audience dynamics than “professional” politicians and Trump.

Now that I have told you how Oprah is like Trump, let me tell you about areas in which she is much better than him- starting with her life story. Unlike Trump, she can make the claim that she her success and wealth came from her own abilities, rather than inherited wealth. Also, she does not appear to have career-ending skeletons in her closet of the kind which might sink her presidential campaign. Furthermore, it would be very hard to successfully level personal criticism at her because she is a woman and black, both of which matter far more now and in 2020 than they did a decade or two ago. Now combine this with a way of disgust and dismay among democratic voters and independents towards Trump and republican politicians by 2020, and it is easy to see why somebody like Oprah could win a presidential election against Trump, or pretty much any establishment republican candidate, in 2020.

Will write the next part of this short series based on further developments in this area and reader comments to this post.

What do you think? Comments?

Establishment Democrats and their Obsession with ‘Bipartisanship’

December 21, 2017 11 comments

As some of you might know- I am not a big fan of Christmas, and the holiday season in general, for a number of reasons. Firstly, I find this whole thing to be highly disingenuous given that it is clearly a consumerist holiday which pretends to be about something “higher”. Other holidays such as Halloween are far more honest about what they are, namely crass consumerism and drunk girls dressed like whores. Secondly, I detest any holiday which requires stores and restaurants to be closed for even a single day of the week. What is the whole point of a celebration if you cannot get a nice lunch or dinner at the restaurant of your choice?

Also, most public places seem to be filled with too many screaming kids during the holiday season. Then there is the issue of office buildings being subject to yet another round of poorly thought “upgrades” and “repairs” during this season. All in all, this is why I have not written posts on any profound topics within the last couple of days. And today will be no different, as this post is about a fairly mediocre topic that I had considered writing about a couple of times in the last few years. I decided to finally write about it because of the supposed opposition by establishment democrats to the blatant corporate giveaway aka the Republican Tax Reforms of 2017.

Some of you might say- “but, isn’t it good that establishment democrats were finally united in their opposition to this corporate giveaway by the republicans?” Well.. that is a superficial way of seeing things. A little digging under the surface reveals that more than a few democrats opposed corporate giveaways for reasons other than it being a bad idea. Rather, they seemed to be more upset that the bill passed today did not care about their input. In other words, more than a few establishment democrats would have been perfectly happy with supporting a similar corporate giveaway as long it was not that obvious and blatant. And this brings me to why establishment democrats are so obsessed with ‘bipartisanship’ for the passage of major legislation.

Conventional “wisdom”, aka bullshit spewed by paid shills in the mass media, suggests that establishment democrats care about ‘bipartisanship’ because they are “good and decent” human beings who care about maintaining the “civility” of discourse, due “process” and “dignity” of institutions. But is that really the case? Establishment democrats had no problem passing multiple rounds of corporate deregulation in 1980s and 1990s, welfare “reform” in the 1990s, opposing single payer healthcare in 1990s and 2000s, cheerleading for many “free trade” treaties and agreements, supporting the endless losing war on “terror” since 2001 and voting for any defense budget regardless of cost.

In other words, establishment democrats have been consistent and enthusiastic supporters of policies and institutions which immiserate the bulk of their voters. But what does this have to do with their obsession with ‘bipartisanship’? Well.. think about all the legislation and policies which the democrats did not pass because it supposedly lacked “bipartisan” support. Do you see a common theme running through such legislation and policies? In case you did not, establishment democrats most often talk about ‘bipartisanship’ as an excuse to not pass legislation or policies which would benefit the majority of their voters. A smaller, but still significant, percentage of ‘bipartisanship’ talk is also used to justify their support for pro-corporate legislation and policies.

But why is that so? Why do establishment democrats pretend to care so much about maintaining “bipartisanship”? What do they get from attempting to keeping up that charade? Who are they trying to deceive? The answers to this question start become obvious once you start looking the how the two main political parties in USA are funded. To make a long story short, there is almost complete overlap between the list of major financial contributors to both the republican and democratic party. While there a few standout exceptions, it is fair to say that both parties and their elected representatives are beholden to corporate and non-corporate financial backers who also provide cushy post-political jobs to legislators who further their interests.

While this explains why democrats are so willing to work with republicans on legislation and policies that screw over almost everybody else who voted for them, how does it explain them invoking ‘bipartisanship’ far more often than republicans? To understand that, we have to consider another factor- namely, the profile of those who vote for each party. Since the passage of civil-right regulations by democrats in the mid-1960s, they have not been able to win the majority of white voters in almost every national election and most regional ones. Now, we can spend thousands of words trying to explain the stupidity of many classes of white voters voting for republicans- but that is not the focus of this post. Instead, let us focus on who votes for democrats, especially establishment democrats.

To make a long story short, establishment democrats get most of their votes from the following constituencies: non-whites, poorer whites especially women, younger whites, whites with professional degrees and university education- especially women and truly well-off whites. As you might have noticed, the bulk of their voting constituencies stand to benefit from progressive legislation such as raising the minimum wage, single payer government healthcare, inexpensive tax-funded higher education, rules against corporate monopolies etc. Establishment democrats therefore have to at least put up a facade of being devoted to the causes of the so-called 99%. But how can they put up that facade and then weasel away from those promises- one election after the other?

This is where the concept of “bipartisanship” becomes so central for establishment democrats. They can use that concept, again and again, to explain to their voter-base why they are incapable of passing legislation which would improve their lives. Increase in minimum wage.. sorry, we could not reach a bipartisan agreement on it, Medicare for all.. sorry, there was not bipartisan support for that idea, taxpayer funded university education.. sorry, there was too much opposition from republicans and so on. On the other hand, they can still participate in republican initiated gutting of the social safety net, repealing regulations and rules that hinder corporate excess and pretty much anything demanded by their corporate backers- because they are “common sense reforms” and the results of “bipartisanship”.

Readers might have noticed that this particular scam by the democratic establishment is not working as well as it used to, especially after 2008. A significant percentage of their voter-base now sees through this bullshit and has stopped voting in elections or switched their vote in protest. That is why the democratic party lost so many state level seats, governorships, house, senate and presidency since their last high-point in 2008. That is why a Jewish guy in his mid-70s came so close to beating the anointed democratic candidate of the establishment in 2016 democratic primaries. A similar process among the republican voterbase is key to understanding why Trump won the republican primaries and then the presidency in the 2016 elections.

So let us call ‘bipartisanship’ by its real name- collusion against the interests of the majority of their respective voterbases.

What do you think? Comments?

The Obama Presidency was a Disaster for Establishment Democrats: 2

September 9, 2017 19 comments

In the previous post of this series, I pointed out that Barack Obama’s two terms as president was one of major non-systemic reason for the repeated and sustained electoral losses suffered by the democratic party. While the general public disdain about decisions and policies during his term are often attributed to racism, it is also true that he won both the popular vote and electoral college in 2008 and 2012. So clearly, something else is at work. I mean.. he did win many mid-western states with a pretty high percentage of whites in both 2008 and 2012.

In my opinion, public disdain of Obama’s two terms was largely due to the fact that he turned out to be just another empty suit whose decisions and policies helped the rich and corporations at the expense of everybody else. In fact, he was reelected in 2012 only because Mitt Romney was a bigger corporate shill than him. Obama’s popular vote margin did decrease from 10 million in 2008 to 5 million in 2012, as did his margin in electoral college from 365-173 in 2008 to 332-206 in 2012. Having said that, he won fair and square on both occasions- which is what matters in the end.

But that still leaves us with the question as to how Obama got reelected in 2012, after the dismal performance of democrats in 2010 midterm. Also, why he remained somewhat “popular” even though the democratic party suffered further losses in 2012 and 2014. Part of his “popularity” might be due to the fact that few wanted to call out the first black president for being an empty suit shilling for corporations. But the other part of his “popularity” is largely due to the fact that he was not Bush43. As many of you know, Bush43’s second term was such an unmitigated disaster that Obama could look competent just by not repeating any of the large screw-ups of his predecessor.

Accordingly, he was able to restrain himself from overtly invading other countries in the middle-east and making extremely poor personel choices (remember “brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job”) and being generally free of serious scandals and charges of overt corruption. Now you might say that this is a very low bar for somebody elected to the office of president. Then again, just look at the guy before him (Bush43) and the one after him (Trump45). Obama remained somewhat popular by simply following the neoliberal script- which is to appear erudite and competent, not make too many big short-term mistakes and cultivate rich elites and lapdog media types who will sing his praises.

The generic neoliberal script did not, however, work for the democratic party for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is much easier for one nominally powerful person at the national level like the president to cultivate his public image and elites. Presidential elections are usually about who is the lesser and more presentable crook to assume the post of chief executive of USA. Most people do not expect the president to be involved in the day-to-day running of the city, town or state of residence. Therefore, public expectations about him (or her) are very different from those of lower level elected representatives.

Elections at the level of representatives for national or state legislatures, in contrast, are often driven by partisan voters who believe that their choice will validate their beliefs. Since the majority of people correctly assume that electing democrats or republicans will not make their lives any better, it comes down to people who vote to validate their beliefs. That is why elections in USA tend to be driven by bullshit issues such as access to abortion, war on drugs, war on crime, welfare for non-white etc. That is also why “culture issues” dominated american politics and elections from mid-1980s to 2008.

But what does any of this have to with neoliberalism not working for democrats? Weren’t they able to win in states like West Virginia a couple of decades ago? Well.. they were able to win such “red” states as late as the early 2000s, but not because of espousing neoliberal ideas. Democrats, you see, were able to win all those so-called “red” states as long as their candidates promoted populist causes- specifically of the economic variety. As many of you know, establishment democrats became republican-lite by the early-1990s and their candidates either stopped being economic populists or were replaced by more corporate friendly figureheads.

It is therefore not surprising that those who voted in many parts of the country most hurt by all those “free trade” agreements and other neoliberal policies were increasingly of the type driven by “cultural issues”. To make a long story short, democrats abandoned people in ‘flyover’ states and those people then stopped supporting that party. At the same time, ranks of establishment democrats were increasingly filled with credentialed professional types who could care less about people who were not like them.

But what does any of this have to do with why the Obama presidency was so disastrous to democrats?

The short answer is that it was similar to the captain of the Titanic not altering course or reducing speed in a known iceberg field. The somewhat longer answer is that the ability of Obama to get elected, and the reelected, convinced establishment democrats that identity-driven neoliberal politics was sufficient to win against republican candidates. The two terms of Obama convinced them that they could sell a neoliberal turd covered by a thin layer of social justice issues and identity politics.

It is therefore not surprising that a lot of the so-called rising stars of the democratic party (Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Joaquim Castro, Gavin Newsom etc) are poor clones of Obama. They are all “properly educated”, photogenic, “properly pedigreed”, “media-savvy” people with handlers who feed them the right sound and media bites and who can deliver empty carefully-lawyered speeches with lots of fake conviction. While that strategy sorta worked for Obama in 2008 and even 2012, it is doubtful if it would work today.

You see, until 2008 many people in USA believed that their economic situation would keep on getting better, regardless of occasional and temporary setbacks. A number of events and structural shifts within the previous 8-9 years have totally changed that, especially for people under the age of 40-45. Today, most people (especially young) in USA simply do not believe in the system and its various “credentialed experts”. That is why somebody like Bernie Sanders got so much support among younger voters. Obama and his poor clones belong to the pre-2008 era.

Now this does not mean that they cannot win election in any state. Indeed, Obama clones can (and do win) elections in certain coastal states like California, Massachusetts and New York. However, it is also clear that such creatures are incapable of winning elections against even mediocre republican candidates in non-coastal states. But why? Well.. it comes down to the fact that Obama clones are unable to motivate voters who sit out elections because they correctly believe that democrats are basically republican-lite. In contrast, republican candidates can motivate their core ideology-based voters by spouting nonsense about “cultural issues”.

But what does any of this have to do with Obama’s position on “illegal immigration” and “free trade”? As it turns out, a lot..

While establishment democrats are busy expressing outrage about Trump’s plans to deport millions of “illegal immigrants” and “build that wall” between Mexico and USA, they forget that the policies of the Obama administration were responsible for more deportations (often under pretty atrocious circumstances) than Trump has manged to in an equivalent period of time. That is correct, Barack Obama’s administration started the current mass deportation machine with its private prisons, arbitrary powers and flagrant abuses of power. Is it any wonder that many citizens of Hispanic descent were not particularly enthusiastic about voting for a third Obama term under HRC?

Some of you might wonder why ivy-league educated “policy wonks”, such as those employed by the HRC campaign, could not figure out that many “illegal immigrants” frequently had relatives in USA who had become citizens- through naturalization or birth. Did they not realize that pissing upon voter groups who might otherwise be very sympathetic to your cause was a bad idea. Did they not realize that Obama’s deportation crusades had already put the democratic party on pretty shaky ground with Hispanics in USA- most of whom are Mexicans. Here is what I think.. establishment democrats did not care about what Hispanic voters thought because they believed that they had no option. While it is true that most Hispanics who voted still voted for democrats- a large number who could have simply chose not to vote for either party.

Let us now turn our attention to how the Obama administration’s support for various “free trade” policies and treaties as well as increased levels of job outsourcing hurt the democratic party. While Obama was not the first american president to pimp “free trade” and outsourcing, it is notable that a majority of job losses in sectors of economy with previously well-paying and stable jobs occurred during the 2nd term of Bush43 and two terms of Obama44. While the events which started that process occurred in the 1990s and early-2000s, it is noteworthy that Obama was far more vocal about his support for “free trade” agreements and outsourcing. Perhaps more problematically, many democratic candidates for national and state legislatures kept on repeating official party positions about “free trade”, education, skills, retraining and other assorted neoliberal lies even after it was obvious that most voters could see their bullshit.

It is therefore not surprising that many working-class people did not bother voting for them- as evidenced by low turnout levels in the 2010 and 2014 (and to a lesser extent in 2012) elections. In 2016, more than a few of them voted for Trump. It is important to realize that the democratic establishment willfully ignored the needs of the working class just like it did for Black and Hispanic voters. I should also point out that most Black and Hispanic voters are part of the working class. To make a long story short, establishment democrats took the support of their core voter constituencies for granted and then proceeded to ignore and humiliate them. While this behavior has been part of establishment democrat behavior for over two decades now- the two terms of Obama in combination their hubris led them to greatly speed up the process of alienating their key voter constituencies.

In the upcoming part of this series, I will talk about how the rise of “identity politics”, “culture wars 2.0” and SJW-ism during the two terms of Obama44 further doomed electoral prospects of the democratic party.

What do you think? Comments?