Archive

Posts Tagged ‘impeachment’

Why Nixon Was Almost Impeached and Had to Resign the Presidency

January 1, 2020 2 comments

In early 2013, I wrote a post on why Nixon was still the most reviled president in recent american history. Since that time (especially post Nov 8, 2016) things have.. changed. While establishment democrats have been busy trying to sell the bullshit farce of Trump’s impeachment via a totally partisan vote in the house, I thought it would be a good time to return to topic of impeachment- specifically focusing on the last president who resigned rather than face impeachment. As many of you know, dying corporate media figureheads have been futilely masturbating at the possibility of Trump resigning or being removed from office ever since he won the election in 2016. So let us talk about why Nixon resigned rather than face removal through impeachment and why the later possibility was realistic in the early 1970s, but is laughably improbable in 2020.

1] The 1970s and 1980s were the last decades when the electorate and politicians in this country were not ideologically polarized. It is noteworthy that 1973 was immediately after the last great political realignment of 1968-1972, which was caused by passage of civil right and other similar legislation and resulted in a realignment of the political fortunes for both major parties. After that realignment, democrats started winning in traditionally republican constituencies and regions while republicans started winning in democratic strongholds in the south. But more relevantly, the reasonably good economic times (or at least their recent memory) along with the relatively minor differences in public positions of both parties in combination with lots of deal making in smokey rooms made something like bipartisan impeachment of the president a real possibility.

2] While Nixon won the 1972 presidential election by a large margin, he was never personally a popular president with a loyal base. To make matters worse, he had stepped on the toes of many fellow republicans during his rise to power. While politicians as a group are not known for loyalty to their colleagues, having a long history of pissing of your fellow partisans makes such decisions that much easier. Nixon had, over the eight years of his vice-presidency under Eisenhower and first term as president, amply demonstrated his tendency to be untrustworthy to his own party members as well as hog the limelight. Read a bit about the machinations which got him selected as republican candidate in 1962 and 1968. It is no wonder that so many of his own party members were, at at best, ambivalent in their support for him.

3] Nixon was unlucky to be elected at a transitional period in american history. His victory in 1968 came in an era of much racial and social conflict, not to mention all those “mysterious” political assassinations. He was also unfortunate to come to power at the same time as formerly popular but now exposed assholes such as Curtis LeMay, J. Edgar Hoover, Robert Moses etc had started to lose their positions of authority and power. In other words, the public was increasingly associating men of his type and generation with abuse of power and general malfeasance- sorta being like catholic priests in the past decade. While this, by itself, would have not been deadly to his political career – it occurred alongside many large failures over which he ended up presiding.

4] Nixon was also unlucky enough to be the president when USA had to finally withdraw from erstwhile south Vietnam. As I have mentioned in some previous posts, USA has not won a single large armed conflict since WW2. However their previous defeats such as an inability to win the Korean war had been sold to the american public as stalemates. The defeat in Vietnam was however simply too obvious to spin and though Nixon did not initiate the american involvement in that conflict, he was the president when the maximum number of american soldiers died in that war. Leaks about the “secret” mass bombings of Laos and Cambodia did not help his public image either, not because the racist white american public cared about innocent Asian lives but because the expenditure of all that money, white lives and bombs did not prevent their defeat in Vietnam.

5] Nixon was also unlucky be president towards the end of three decades of post-WW2 prosperity enjoyed by americans. He was the president when Stagflation became a thing and his attempts price control measures did not work as intended. the USA also looked impotent in the aftermath of the oil shock of the early-1970s. The achievements and optimism of the 1950s and 1960s had given way to defeatism and pessimism of the 1970s. Nixon became increasingly associated in the minds of the public and politicians with a country that was past its prime and on a path of decline. We also cannot forget the numerous investigations into illegal activities by governmental agencies such as the Church Committee were started after leaks such as the Pentagon Papers and other similar revelations which permanently damaged the public image of many american government agencies and institutions. Much of this occurred while Nixon was president.

To make a long story short, the impeachment of Nixon had nothing to do with “maintaining the rule of law” or any other moralistic-sounding bullshit. It, however, had everything to do with an attempt to rebrand the american government and institutions by forcing out an already disliked president who just happened to be the public face of many failures suffered by the american establishment in the late-1960s and early-1970s. They just wanted to replace an old mascot of declining popularity with another one who appeared better on TV and did not instantly remind americans of the numerous recent failures suffered by their elites and institutions. After Nixon resigned, being able to maintain a positive public image became the defining attribute of any president. And that is why establishment media and their willing catamites still obsess about the image of politicians rather than their actions and impact of their decisions.

What do you think? Comments?

The Fundamental Problem with Selling a Trump Impeachment to Voters

October 13, 2019 43 comments

Regular readers might have noticed that I did not post much last week. As it turns out, being on a couple of work-related cross country trips took much of my spare time. Anyway.. so now that I am back and rested, let us talk about the latest development in most recent pathetic attempt by democrats to impeach Trump. While I am no supporter or fan of the orange troll, it hard to deny that every stupid attempt by democrats and their deep-state allies to pull of a “legal” coup ends up making him look more sympathetic. Even worse, every failed attempt which ends with orange man retaining his presidency makes the democrats look desperate and impotent. I am sure that a few readers (MikeCA?) will write long comments about how the latest accusations against Trump are somehow the “real deal” which will create a groundswell of public opinion, finally resulting in his impeachment and removal from office. If wishes were horses..

Now let us get back to the real world and talk about how the voting public see the latest chapter of this three year long farce. As mentioned in the previous post on this topic, trying to impeach Trump in an election year is a really bad idea with multiple downsides and no realistic upsides. As mentioned in that post, we do not live in the 1970s or even 1990s. USA has been on a terminal downward spiral for most of its people during the past two decades. The ability of (white) people to be shocked by political malfeasance and abuse of power has irreversibly diminished, largely because they are now struggling to remain solvent and notionally ‘middle-class’. Only retards are still capable of believing that politicians (as a class) do not use their office to enrich themselves, their progeny, relatives and friends. CNN and MSNBC shouting from the rooftops that Joe Biden’s son did not benefit from his father’s position, if anything, makes him look more guilty.

And he is not alone. Chelsea Clinton seems to have gotten the boards of many corporations over the years in addition to “working” in highly paid sinecures in the lamestream media. A quick look at the Bush family tree shows many similar instances of family and relatives benefiting from the presidencies of Bush41 and Bush43. In fact, the progeny and relatives of almost every politician at the national, state and local level in this country keep getting plum jobs or contracts from the private sector. But.. but.. what about Trump using his position to get a “foreign” country to dig up dirt on the progeny of his potential opponent in the general election? Turns out, such behavior is as american as apple pie. Nixon’s election campaign sabotaged peace talks to end the Vietnam war to help him win in 1968 and he was not impeached for it. Reagan’s election campaign tried to delay resolution of hostage crisis with Iran in 1980 to help him win the general election.

My point is that presidents or presidential candidates colluding with foreign powers for help with winning elections is far too common in recent history to bother most voters. Let us not forget that Hillary’s 2016 campaign was one of the major funders of the so-called “Steele Dossier”. To make a long story short, even a recording of Trump making a request to investigate Joe Biden’s son to the Ukrainian president with an explicit linkage between it and future funding to that country will not make the orange man look any more guilty that Nixon, Reagan or Hillary Clinton. Most voters assume that their elected representative are greedy crooks. Trying to paint Trump as an abuser of power in 2019 is like trying to paint him as a serial pussy grabber and bad businessman in 2016. We know how that strategy worked in 2016.. don’t we. Then again, democrats seem to still have their heads up their asses. Old habits die hard, especially for incestuous circle-jerkers.

Now let us talk about the most obvious, but seldom mentioned, reason that trying to impeach is a hilariously bad idea. Let us travel back in time to the Bush43 presidency.. you know, the one that lasted from Jan 2001 to Jan 2009. While this country had many mediocre to bad presidents, the eight years of Dubya stand out as the worst in living memory. What began with a stolen election against a lackluster democrat progressed through ignoring the signals of 9/11, to that event, its aftermath, disastrous and failed invasion of Iraq under false pretenses, subsequent insurgency in Iraq, shoddy response to Hurricane Katina, the housing bubble and Global financial Crisis of 2008. It is no exaggeration to say that Bush43’s two terms in office started the final death spiral of american empire. The Trump presidency, even on its worse days, has not still anywhere close to equaling the colossal clusterfuck that was Bush43’s eight years as president.

And yet, Bush43 was not impeached inspite of more than a few of his actions being worthy of impeachment. We can start with dereliction of duty pre-9/11, manufacturing evidence to justify the failed occupation of Iraq, the massive levels of corruption and corporate kick-backs made possible by that misadventure, whatever went down in New Orleans after Katrina, the role of his administration’s policy in inflating the housing bubble which contributed to the GFC of 20008. The democrats had many valid reasons to impeach him after winning back the house and senate in 2006, and yet they did not. Instead they just allowed him to finish his second term and then retire in peace. Even worse, these same democrats have been trying to rehabilitate the image of Bush43 since 2016. Have a look of some photographs of establishment democrats and their media flunkies being extra chummy with Bush43 within the past two years.

If democrats could not get themselves to impeach Bush43, how can they demand that Trump be impeached. Bush43, more than any other modern american president, presented the strongest case for impeachment and removal for office. And yet.. democrats did nothing at that time. Even worse, establishment democrats such as Nancy Pelosi are busy rehabilitating the image of that idiot who presided over a eight year long nightmare. The Trump presidency, for all its warts and faults, has still not caused a fraction of long-term damage caused by the village idiot from Texas.

What do you think? Comments?

Attempting to Impeach Trump Will be Disastrous for Democratic Party

October 4, 2019 12 comments

By now, most of you must have heard about the latest drive by democrats to impeach Trump aka the orange troll. As Michael Tracey posted a few days ago, Ukraine-gate is the perfect extension of the failed ‘Russia’ narrative. In that article he wrote that “if Donald Trump were on the phone with the president of Angola or Singapore appearing to solicit foreign assistance, it would barely register on the outrage meter”. The point being that Ukraine-gate is an inferior surrogate for the “Russia” and “Putin” narrative which democrats have tried to push for the past three years. It is telling that their replacement narrative is a hastily assembled and far shoddier version of “Russia-gate”. Then again, professional politicians in declining post-industrial countries and their famously credentialed flunkies are not known for their ability, competence or imagination.

As many of you have also seen, establishment democrats and their ass-kissers in MSM are busy trying to concoct news of Trump’s imminent impeachment. They seem to under the impression that their repeated and failed attempts to unseat Trump using similar techniques have remained unnoticed by the general public. Or maybe they never heard the famous children’s tale about the boy who cried wolf. I cannot resist pointing out that their attempts to impeach the orange troll using made-up bullshit about his alleged attempts to collude with the current president of Ukraine are especially pathetic, given that there are far more legitimate reasons to impeach him. We can start with how Trump uses his post to increase occupancy at his hotels, his continued support for failing Saudi war against Yemen, using extra-legal means to stop legal immigration etc.

But democrats, in their infinite stupidity, have decided that trying to impeach orange troll based on gossip and hearsay is the hill on which they want to die. So here are some my thoughts and predictions on this topic. I have a feeling that certain readers (MikeCA?) are going to really dislike my take on this doomed venture. And yes.. I think that attempts to impeach Trump based on the manufactured scandal of Ukraine-gate is likely to backfire on democrats during the 2020 election season. But why do I think it is a disastrous idea? Haven’t all the talking heads on cable news told you that Trump will fall, just like Nixon. Then again.. they also told everybody, stupid enough to believe them, that the Mueller report was guaranteed to put Trump behind bars. We all know how that worked out.. don’t we? So without further ado, here are the main reasons why attempts by democrats to impeach Trump is a bad idea.

1] Trump is not Nixon and 2019 is not 1974. You must have come across extensive instances of comparison between Trump and Nixon on cable TV “news” and a couple of national newspapers, for the past three years. Yes.. that is right, many mainstream presstitutes are under the delusion that repeating Trump’s and Nixon’s name in the same sentence will conjure up the legislative and popular will to impeach the former. So let us quickly talk about why Nixon resigned under the threat of impeachment. The main reasons for his resignation were as follows: a] Nixon was widely disliked among his own party because of how many others he had run over to attain power; b] The political establishment needed a fall guy for the humiliating defeat in Vietnam, exposure of secret bombing campaign in Indochina, contemporaneous exposure of many illegal government programs and stagflation; c] But most importantly, Nixon was a creature of the political establishment and lacked significant independent support from voters.

2] Trying to impeach Trump makes him look like victim. In their boneheaded pursuit to avenge the loss of the 2016 presidential election, democrats have achieved the almost impossible feat of making Trump look like the victim to a large percentage of the electorate. Contrary to what ivy-league educated idiots believe, most people aren’t stupid enough to believe politicians. Few believe that Hunter Biden getting 50k per month to serve on a Ukrainian companies board of directors in an area in which he had no previous experience was kosher. The same applies for all the high-paying jobs held by Chelsea Clinton. Nor do they believe that Trump or his progeny are paragons of entrepreneurship and competence. Furthermore, it is common knowledge that american presidents have (especially over past 30-40 years) used their office to push for all sorts of personal favors and gains from domestic corporations and foreign governments. Trump’s behavior is widely seen as the rule, not the exception.

3] Attempts to impeach Trump will overshadow the democratic primary and the general election. As many others have previously pointed out, the shit-show of multiple impeachment hearings and proceedings are guaranteed to overshadow the democratic primary contest to the extent that any of Trump’s tweets is going to garner far more media attention than major electoral promises made by the candidates. Even worse, all candidates will have to join in this madness and spend a good percentage of their public appearances talking about impeachment rather than why they are the better candidate. To make things even more horrible, they will have to deal with a situation where the democrat-controlled house votes to impeach Trump but the senate chooses to keep him in office. Have democrats considered the inevitable fallout from a failed attempt to remove Trump from office and what it will do to the voter-base of both parties?

4] Trump will exploit a failed impeachment and its fallout to the maximum. See.. before the latest democratic brain-fart, Trump did not have much to show for the wild promises he made during the 2016 campaign. His trade war against China was going badly, he was unable to build the wall, the promised manufacturing jobs were not coming back, his policies were inconsistent and a mess, he almost ended up alienating gun owners and much more. In other words, his presidency had been a sad failure for everyone except a few charlatans in his administration. But with impeachment over a made-up controversy looming, the orange troll finally has something approaching a genuine reason as to why he was unable to deliver on his ridiculous promises. He can now credibly claim that he is the target of an “legal” coup perpetrated by establishment politicians and the deep-state. You can bet that he will promote that narrative at every chance.

Might write a followup post to this one, depending on reader responses.

What do you think? Comments?

Democrat Attempts to Impeach Trump Will Help Him Get Re-Elected

June 18, 2019 4 comments

Today, I came across a couple of news items that increase the likelihood of Trump winning the 2020 presidential election. The first was a ‘leaked’ poll which allegedly showed that more than a few democrats could defeat Trump. The second was a speech by Biden in which he used this poll to promise that he would beat Trump, not only in mid-western states which Hillary lost in 2016 but also, in others such as Georgia, Texas and South Carolina. So why do I think that these two apparently positive bits of news for democrats are harbingers of a likely Trump victory in 2020? Well.. because I remember 2016, or more precisely how polls done as late at October of that year strongly suggested Hillary would won states such as Georgia and South Carolina. We all know how that turned out. But why do I think 2020 could be like 2016?

Let me start by restating the obvious. Establishment democrats haven’t learnt anything from their defeat in the 2016 election. Even worse, they seem to to have interpreted their meager gains in the 2018 election as evidence of an electorate which now hates Trump, rather than a reaction to his comically inept attempts at destroying Obamacare in addition to being unable to deliver on his election promises about reversing outsourcing etc. They seem to believe that promising a return to “norms”, throwing a bit more money at Obamacare and making some noises about education and job training will guarantee a win in 2020. In other words, they are still desperately clinging to the idea that Trump is an aberration and things will magically go back to the way ‘they used to be’ before the fateful midnight of November 8, 2016.

As many of you know, I do not think Trump is an aberration (link 1, link 2). In fact, I blame the deliberate failure of the previous neoliberal grifter-in-chief aka Obama to deliver real substantive reform in aftermath of 2008 global financial crisis as the most important reason for rise of Trump. Think about it.. would a character like that orange buffoon have gotten any traction in national politics, let alone won the presidency against all odds, if the majority of people still had any faith in the establishment and institutions of this country? Trump is therefore best understood as the crazy clown who appeared viable to a majority only because the vision and choices offered by the establishment were rotten. Some of you might remember that Hillary’s unfavorability ratings during the 2016 electoral season were often higher than Trump.

Now let us talk about how the establishment democrat obsession with Trump getting impeached will likely help him to win the 2020 election. As many of you know, establishment democrats and their supporters in media, hollywood etc spent about two years hallucinating about a future where the “Mueller Report” would magically implicate Trump in some high crime that would lead to his immediate impeachment and arrest. Well.. the report has been out for almost two months and it was unable to find evidence that Trump or his gang of idiots colluded with Russia or indeed “obstructed” justice in a manner which would stand in a court of law. The report, on which establishment democrats and public LIEbrals put so much hope, turned out to be damp squib. Of course, this did not change the narrative of establishment democrats and their MSM cronies.

To make matters worse, partisan democrat voters (who are over-represented in primaries) have become even more convinced and vocal about the need to impeach Trump despite the lack of evidence that he is anything more than a greedy and lecherous troll who used to be real-estate developer. We are now seeing a rapidly increasing amount of pressure on Pelosi and other democrat leaders to ‘do something’ and impeach Trump, or at least start the pre-impeachment investigation. While the wheels on that shitshow have not started moving yet, it is becoming increasingly likely that we will see some action on that front by the end of this year. But why is demanding the impeachment of Trump, or even starting the pre-impeachment farce.. I mean ‘investigation’.. such a bad idea? What could go wrong?

Well.. how about the fact that a non-stop barrage of intentional negative reporting by MSM on Trump has not moved his poll numbers much- either way. Such reporting has, if anything, destroyed whatever residual credibility they used to have prior to his election. It is telling that the MSM has remained focused on “collusion”. “Putin” and “Russia” (and now “obstruction of justice”) while ignoring all the other shady and outright illegal stuff which Trump had done- and it is one long list. From making up false valuations for his properties to either get loans or dodge taxes, promoting his DC hotel to earn extra income from foreign countries, having a son-in-law with really shady business dealings, being bought off by MBS and that guy who currently rules UAE to bend all sorts of rules for them and a whole lot more.

My point is that Trump has done enough shady and illegal things to get himself impeached and locked up- but colluding with Russia and Putin is not one of them. It is therefore incredibly stupid for democrats to focus on the one crime of which he is not guilty. Then again, they may be doing so because they are out of ideas and live in a “ivy-league” bubble full of other disconnected and incompetent elites. Either way, these dumbfucks don’t seem to understand or care that the vast majority of voters are far more concerned about whether they can afford whatever passes for healthcare in USA, have a job that pays and is stable enough to keep them going for the next year, whether they can ever afford a half-decent house or car etc. Only a section of primary voters (mostly baby-boomers) give a fuck about the whole Russia-Putin fairytale.

Unfortunately, these accursed boomers are over-represented in democratic primaries. We can therefore expect all the presidential candidates to make increasingly shrill and comic promises about impeaching Trump for “collusion” and “obstruction of justice”- in spite of there being no legally sound evidence for either. This stupid competition to out-hawk each other on this issue is going to eclipse the discussion of other more relevant issues. Eventually, we will reach a point when the public platform for most democratic candidates is centered around Trump- whether it is impeaching him, repeatedly telling us that “he is a bad bad man” and invoking the “norms fairy” aka how things will go back to normal once he is gone. While this might win somebody the primary, it is unlikely to ensure a high turnout in the general election.. like 2016.

More problematically, accusing Trump of the one or two crimes he did not commit (while ignoring the many others he did) makes him look like the victim of an establishment conspiracy. It is not secret than the MSM has no credibility beyond partisan democrats and a few affluent republicans. Harping on fictional crimes, without strong corroborative evidence, is going to further alienate their non-partisan audience and allow Trump to successfully spin his persecution by the MSM as martyrdom. Between this and selecting an establishment hack with little popular support beyond partisan democrats (Biden, McKinsey Buttboy, Harris, Warren), it seems increasingly likely that 2020 will be a replay of the 2016 shitshow- albeit on a much bigger scale.

What do you think? Comments?

2019 and 2020 Will be Much Bigger Shitshows than 2015 and 2016

May 30, 2019 17 comments

As regular readers know, I often make predictions on a number of topics which later turn out to be right (or pretty close) with a high rate of success. More importantly, I am able to accurately identify the underlying dynamics, trends and forces responsible for the ultimate outcomes. Now let me make another seemingly obvious prediction, but with far greater insight and details than possible for quacks.. I mean credentialed “experts”. My prediction is that 2019 and 2020 will be far larger and more problematic shitshows than 2015 and 2016. Some of you (MikeCA?) might argue that every day since the election of Trump has been a shitshow.. and that is technically sorta true. But if you think that 2017 and 2018 were shitshows, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

There are many reasons why this period of 1.5 years will be an epic meta-shitshow of the likes we haven’t witnessed in living memory. However, it is not simply the sheer number or magnitude of individual shitshows that will make this period memorable, but how one shitshow will feed into another and so on.. you know, synergy. But before we go there, let us talk about why 2015 and 2016 marked the beginning of our current era of shitshows. It all began with an orange Buffoon riding down a gaudy escalator alongside a trophy wife with a face pumped full of cosmetic Botox. Initially it seemed that his campaign for the republican presidential nomination was just another publicity stunt to obtain a larger payout from the reality show in which he was starring.

However it became obvious to me within 4-6 weeks that his outrageous and colorful persona had far more public support than effete Washington DC ‘insiders’ realized. And yes.. I never changed my opinion on that issue and turned out be right. And ya.. I also predicted he would win against Hillary in early 2016, even at times when even the most radical presstitues.. I mean journalists.. thought that HRC might somehow prevail against him on election day. I also explored the real reasons why HRC would lose to that buffoon– before the election took place. FYI- majority of my accurate predictions have been about issues and topics other than Trump. But enough about the orange buffoon. Let us now talk about Brexit- more precisely, why the ‘remain’ side lost.

MSM news outlets in that rapidly decaying country (UK) want you to believe that Brexit was due to the stupidity of poorly educated people in that country. However a simple look at the geography of that vote tells you all you need about Brexit. Long story short, post-2008 austerity measures in UK hit parts of the country that are not London pretty hard. People who live in those regions, aka most of that country, got progressively disillusioned with the shitty status quo. They expressed their discontent by voting against something which stood as a placeholder for the widely reviled status quo. You know.. just like people in the Mid-West finally got tired of Obama’s 8-year long lie about “Hope and Change” voted for Trump over the symbol of continuity aka HRC.

But both these shocks to the Establishment, their aftermath and colorful rhetoric accompanying both those changes are nothing compared to what we will witness in 2019 and 2020. While I will restrict my predictions to USA, things are also likely to get interesting in other parts of the world- maybe a bit too interesting. But before we go to the list, a word of caution. The most obvious reasons are unlikely to be the most consequential. The less glamorous reasons, further down the list, carry far more weight than the shiny but superficial ones which are obvious. So let us start by listing them in order of apparent obviousness.

1] Ever since Trump won the republican nomination in mid-2016, democratic establishment and deep state types have been trying to find enough dirt to stop his victory in the 2016 presidential election (which they failed) or impeach him. As things stand today, they have not uncovered anything more scandalous than Trump getting his disgraced lawyer to pay hush money to two women he had sex with while married to his current wife. While this revelation does provide fodder for supermarket tabloids, it is totally unsurprising and in line with Trump’s past behavior. More importantly, the Mueller investigation has not uncovered evidence of “collusion” between Trump and Russia or Putin. Nor has it shown any definitive evidence for obstruction of justice by Trump. And I know MikeCA will have something to say about my characterization of that report.

But these severe setbacks have not stopped an increasing number of democrats from demanding his impeachment, because face it.. they always knew he was “guilty” of something impeachable. Today, the patron saint of pro-impeachment brigade aka Robert Mueller came out and all but openly encouraged democrats to start the impeachment process, even though his report does not contain enough evidence to prosecute Trump for either “collusion” or obstruction of justice. And ya.. I am aware of the legalese bullshit about not being able to exonerate him- but let us get real, people are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. It also helps to be rich and white, but that is a topic for another post. My prediction is that democrats will initiate pre-impeachment proceedings against Trump, irrespective of potential negative effects it might have on their electoral prospects in 2020. But how does this translate into a nasty shitshow?

Well.. for a few reasons. Firstly, it is unlikely Trump will be impeached, tried and made to resign before November 3, 2020. Secondly, the pre-impeachment investigation is going to be long and highly contentious. It will also overshadow democratic primaries and possibly the presidential election to such an extent that other issues will be effectively sidelined. So be prepared for a democratic primary in which candidates offer endless paeans to bipartisanship, civility in politics, reestablishing “norms” and impeaching Trump at the expense of all the other stuff most voters in the general election actually care about. You know.. stuff like antitrust action against various monopolies and oligopolies, medicare for all, doing something about student debt etc. Think of HRCs “what will the children think” 2016 campaign on steroids. But in some ways, this will be smallest shitshow of them all.

2] Stupid old losers who constitute a majority of democratic primary voters in large states seem to be enamored by “gun control” aka banning civilian ownership of guns. Given that everyone in the packed clown car of democratic candidates is expected to appeal to them, one should expect increasingly shrill and strident anti-gun ownership rhetoric. While appealing to these losers might help one win the primary and a few coastal states in general, it is almost guaranteed to backfire in swing states- especially those with large rural and semi-urban populations. Now add in a few random mass shootings (almost inevitable?) between now and Nov 3, 2020 and you can imagine how nutty this could get. Expect the Democratic house to pass one or more atrociously written anti-gun ownership laws and a few high profile court cases.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, we have seen a recent trend by private corporate monopolies/ oligopolies based in heavily democratic states to deny services based on ideology. Here are a few recent examples.. Software Maker Salesforce Tells Gun Retailers to Stop Selling AR-15s, YouTube Alternatives for Gun Videos & Content Creators and Bank of America to Stop Financing Makers of Military-Style Guns. I, for one, don’t see how pissing off millions of well-armed and single-issue voters who live in gun-ownership friendly jurisdictions is a smart idea when your party has to win their votes in 2020. Then again, this is the same party which think that Joe Biden in 2020 would make the best general election candidate. Or maybe the Democrats don’t want to really win national elections. Who knows..

The large number of democratic candidates vying for the party nomination will make things even weirder than the republican field in 2016. We have all seen how small campaigns which use far less costly traditional advertising and advisers can prevail over larger “mainstream” operations. Between this and the proliferation of small donors, expect far more candidates to remain in the race even after the first major primaries are over. And the DNC and other party establishment are going to try hard, and ineffectually, to stop Bernie by hook or crook. Don’t be surprised if the 2020 democratic convention is held under even more acrimonious circumstances than 2016. And there will be anonymous leaks, just like last time. It is going to get real ugly by mid 2020.

3] Let us now turn to the less obvious, but far more consequential, trends which promise to make 2019 and 2020 the biggest shitshows in living memory. Long story short, we are due for at least three independent nasty blowbacks from Trump’s foreign and trade policies. Let us start by talking about Iran or more precisely how his stupid policy towards that country has the potential to backfire in a spectacularly disastrous manner. It is no secret that idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton, urged on by Zionists and Saudis, are trying to start a war. What they don’t understand, or are willing to understand, is that any war with Iran in addition being unwinnable would make the Iraq misadventure look like quaint in comparison. The outcome of such a war would include Iran finally developing nuclear weapons (perhaps with Chinese assistance), prolonged and massive oil shortages with resultant price hikes and many other bad long-term effects (on USA).

Moving on.. Kim Jon-un has repeatedly conveyed to USA that unless economic sanctions are at least partially removed by end of 2019, he will restart testing ICBMs. My guess is that DPRK will demonstrate an entirely solid-fueled ICBM in early 2020, unless Trump and the idiots running “foreign policy” in USA openly abandon the idea of DPRK giving up its nukes and ICBMS- because the later ain’t going to happen. Which means that sometime in 2020, Trump will have to decide on how to respond to new ICBM and perhaps even nuclear tests by DPRK. To make matters even more interesting, this escalation will likely occur around the same time as Iran is likely to finally leave the JCPOA and restart its uranium enrichment program at maximum capacity. But wait.. it gets even better, or worse, depending on your viewpoint.

As most of you know by now, Trump is involved in an unwinnable trade-war with China. And here is why.. China’s economy and manufacturing capacity is far larger than USA in real terms. While the american economy and system will implode without Chinese imports, the converse is not true. There is also no other country in the world that has as large, varied and sophisticated a manufacturing base as China. Did I mention that USA and rest of the “West” are economically stagnant, demand saturated and in overall decline. China is not going to compromise on Huawei, give in to demands of american corporations or basically change anything significant about how it works or does business. It is the USA and rest of “West” that will have to ultimately eat crow. And they will start hurting USA by screwing over Boeing and make life interesting for every american corporation which does significant amounts of business there or dependent on its exports.

Tensions with Russia could exacerbate further given the current political climate in USA and provide opportunity for yet another shitshow. Did I mention how conflicts between internet monopolies and right wingers could spill into the real world with potentially disastrous results for the former. To summarize, the rest of 2019 and whole of 2020 will almost certainly witness far larger and problematic shitshows than anything in living memory. Even worse, many of these shitshows could feed into each other to create meta-shitshows.

What do you think? Comments?

On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 2

July 16, 2017 11 comments

In the previous post of this series, I wrote about how overt attempts by the establishment and its MSM stooges to invalidate Trump’s victory in the 2016 election by connecting him to a largely made-up “russian conspiracy” are not gaining support among the general population. Now.. this does not imply that Trump is becoming more popular. In fact, he probably has the worst levels of public support for a president in living memory. However, his low approval ratings are due to his general incompetence in combination with numerous poor policy and personnel choices, rather than most people seeing seeing him as a traitor or usurper.

When I wrote the previous, and first, post in this series we still had not heard much about the latest development in this darkly funny shit-show. As almost every single one of you must have heard many times by now, one of his son (Donald Trump Jr.) had a metting with a mediocre but semi-connected Russian lawyer and a few other people who were supposed to provide some ‘dirt’ on HRC related to some of the Clinton families dealings with a few shady rich Russians. You might have also heard that the meeting in question, which occurred in mid-summer 2016, was attended by an odd cast of characters. Anyway.. as far we know, no money changed hands and very little of what was discussed concerned HRC.

Of course, the MSM is having a field day with this most recent “scandal”. In fact, they have gone so far as to greatly exaggerate the positions, abilities and power of the Russians who attended that meeting. For example- the MSM is portraying Natalia Veselnitskaya (the Russian layer) as some sinister genius when it well-known that she was, at best, a mediocre lawyer who happened to marry a semi-powerful prosecutor in her home country. Rinat Akhmetshin (lobbyist) is being portrayed as a “soviet” counter-intelligence sleeper operative while, in reality, he was just another semi-ambitious guy who joined the soviet army in late-1980s to get out of Kazakhstan and then moved to USA after the collapse of USSR in 1991.

My point is, the people attending that meeting were not especially smart or competent. I would go even further and say that this meeting and its cast of attendees had more in common with a sub-plot in “Arrested Development” than anything which could pass for half-competent espionage and skulduggery.

Nonetheless, establishment democrats are busy promoting this alleged scandal as the “smoking gun” which will finally allow them to impeach Trump and make him resign or remove him from office. Of course, doing so would result in an outwardly normal looking religious nutcase, also known as Mike Pence, becoming the President. Then again, establishment democrats have not displayed much ability to think strategically. I mean.. they have lost almost 1,00 state legislature seats and dozens of governor races in the previous 8 years, in addition to losing the house and senate at the national level. Their only major “success” has been stopping Bernie Sanders from winning the party nomination in 2016- though that one turned out to be a really bad idea.

Having said that, let us consider the short (weeks) and medium (months) term consequences of the establishment democrat obsession with somehow connecting Trump to Putin and Russia. Firstly, they seem to forget that the american electorate has heard this same basic fairy tale for almost a year now. Guess what.. Trump won the election even after democrats started pushing this story and his approval numbers, while low, are still a bit between than their own. Note to self- write a post on how democrats were able to achieve lower approval ratings than a reality TV star who has reneged on almost all of his electoral promises.

Secondly, their obsession with this made-up scandal has prevented them from focusing on his many real failures and fuckups. You would think that democrats would focus on Trump’s failures on issues such as preventing outsourcing or maintaining funding levels for popular government programs like social security, medicare and medicaid. But no.. democarts are busy pushing “Trump-Putin”, “Trump-Russia” and “Russia Hacked Our Sacred Elections” 24/7- regardless of the lack of solid evidence to support such connections and conclusions. Establishment democrat obsession with Trump-Putin-Russia (and simultaneous neglect of issues which most voters care about) is eroding their credibility with the broader electorate at an alarming rate.

Thirdly, making the MSM incessantly push this made-up scandal is corroding whatever residual credibility those outlets used to have- even six months ago. Think about it.. average people now know that CNN and MSNBC will spend multiple hours each day talking about the newest chapter of this obviously made up scandal while simultaneously ignoring their real and very serious concerns. They know that supposedly prestigious newspapers like the NYT and WP (and pretty much every other MSM paper) will almost certainly write a dozen pieces about this obviously made-up scandal every single day. Do you think they will care if and when they publish a genuine negative story about Trump?

Will write more about the general issue of credibility loss by establishment due to their numerous unsuccessful attempts at unseating Trump in a future post of this series.

What do you think? Comments?

On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 1

July 11, 2017 14 comments

One of the funny, if somewhat ironic, effects of persistent attempts by establishment democrats (and their media underlings) to delegitimize Trump’s victory in 2016 election by connecting him to some cartoon-ish “russian conspiracy” is that it has not increased their own popularity among the general population. It has, if anything, made them less popular than Trump- which is a most impressive feat. Curiously, the inability of establishment democrats to improve their approval ratings has occurred in spite of Trump doing his best to screw over the very people who voted for him by making a load of generally unpopular decisions on issues such as healthcare.

More than a few commentators on twitter have been baffled by the desire of establishment democrats to flog the dead horse of “russian conspiracy” while simultaneously ignoring issues which animate average people such as healthcare, jobs, education and other concerns based in real life. In my opinion, it comes down to the sad fact that they (and other “traditional” parties in the west) have become the willing and enthusiastic tools of multinational neoliberalism. In other words, supposedly “traditional” political parties have become intellectually bankrupt cults which lack the ability to perceive the world around them thorough anything other than a neoliberal filter.

But what about the question posed in the title of this post? Will Trump complete, or be able to complete, his four-year term as the president? Or will he be impeached before his term is over? Or will something, which will render both those options moot, occur before his term is over?

As many of you know, impeccably credentialed, coiffed and dressed presstitutes employed by main-stream media outlets (and their equivalents in the entertainment sector) have been busy trying to grab onto any piece of evidence and hearsay, ok.. mostly hearsay and fabrication, that Trump is a traitor who did something “bad” which will lead to his impeachment. As you know, I am no defender of Trump and expect his presidential term to be one giant shitshow. Having said that, I think it is incorrect to say that Trump’s behavior and actions are especially unusual for somebody who has been elected as president.

USA has had more than a few presidents who had behaved worse and done far more fucked up shit. If you don’t believe me, read a bit about people like Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Richard Milhous Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and yes.. even Barack Obama. Clearly.. being a child-fucker, genocidal racist, paranoid asshole, demented moron, corrupt piece of shit and obfuscating neoliberal is no barrier to getting elected and re-elected as president. Only a true believer in the dying cult of american exceptionalism would believe in the bullshit story that Trump is somehow uniquely damaging to the dignity of the “office”.

As things stand today, there is insufficient evidence that Trump did something illegal enough to make him resign or impeach him in a manner that looks impartial. Does that mean that Trump has not done anything illegal or made poor and questionable decisions? No.. it does not. For all we know he could be getting a blowjob from by his adult daughter under the table while eating well-done steak seasoned with tomato ketchup and accepting legal contributions from the Saudi crown prince. But you see.. none of those highly questionable decisions are sufficient to impeach him in an open trial.

If there was anything sufficient to impeach him in an open trial, we would have heard it on every mainstream media outlet by now.

So, what about the other establishment democrat plan- making him resign by harping on the alleged “russia conspiracy”? Well.. we kinda already know how that will turn out. As many of you might have noticed, most people in USA have tuned out of that farce. And why wouldn’t they? Every day brings yet more unsubstantiated claims about some connection between Trump and “Putin” that will definitely sink the former’s presidency and.. it all falls apart after a few days, or sometimes, even after a few hours. Meanwhile Trump is still president and playing golf on every single weekend.

I would go so far as to say that harping on the “russia conspiracy” now makes establishment democrats look like bungling idiots or bitter losers- depending on your viewpoint. There is therefore a better than 85% probability (my educated guess) that Trump will complete his term as a president. But what about the other 15%? What else could happen?

Here is where it gets a bit dark, but not in an unexpected manner. As many of you also know, some hyper-partisan democratic voters have bought into the narrative that Trump is somehow a traitor who is sullying the office of presidency. Given the secondary effects of many of Trump’s ill-advised policies and decisions, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that there might more than a few hyper-partisan democrats who will attempt to remove Trump from the presidency. We have already seen a teaser trailer of that particular movie, in the form of the recent shooting of Steve Scalise.

I would not be surprised if in a country of over 300 million people, more than a handful come to the conclusion that Trump has to be removed from office by any means possible. And one such attempt might actually succeed. Even more problematically, a successful attempt will result in lots of covert and not-so-covert celebration by establishment democrats and their hyper-partisan supporters. The point I am trying to make is that there is no good way out of this shitshow. Indeed, letting Trump complete his term might be the least worst option- especially for democrats. Will write more in a future part of this series depending on feedback from commentators.

What do you think? Comments?