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Posts Tagged ‘Kim Jong-un’

Kim Jong-un is Succeeding in Making South Korea Decouple from USA

May 25, 2018 6 comments

In a previous post about my thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s real motivations behind wanting to meet Trump, I wrote that DPRK wants to use the almost certain failure of such a meeting (if it were to even occur) to show that they, and not the USA, are the rational party. I made the point that the target audience for their display are people in South Korea, not USA. As I also wrote in that post, this is part of a clever multi-step strategy to drive a wedge between South Korea and USA. As of yesterday, it appears that the meeting is highly unlikely to occur on June 12. Of course, there is always the chance that it might still occur.. though I would not hold my breath in anticipation.

Here is a reminder of what I wrote on this point in my previous post on this topic..

Then next step for driving a wedge between them requires DPRK to put forth conditions for an agreement whose terms are perfectly acceptable to South Korea but will never be accepted by USA (even if they initially appear to be willing). We should therefore see the latest diplomatic overtures by Kim Jong-un as part of a strategy where he offers basically everything necessary for South Korea to accept the agreement but with just enough sticking points to be rejected by USA. That way, Kim Jong-un appears as the stable and reasonable person willing to deal with other countries such as South Korea while USA looks like some out-of-touch old white guy still living in the 1950s.

In any case, the game that DPRK is playing will work regardless of whether the meeting occurs or not. They know that the prevailing stance of american establishment towards their regime basically guarantees that such a meeting would fail even to achieve any substantive progress, even if it were to occur. Between their hate for Trump and sad delusions of white power, the american establishment is out of touch with anything approaching reality. As we have seen with the Iran Deal, the level of infighting, delusions of grandeur and sheer hubris among members of the american establishment are quite capable of sinking anything approaching a plausible and rational deal. Furthermore, this pathology is so embedded in the psyche of both older proles and establishment in USA, that it will probably last as long as they do.

Once again, to refresh your memory, this is what I wrote about it in my previous post..

They have figured out that different parts of the government in USA, such as the legislatures, can and will derail any agreement just because the D-grade actors within them like to “act tough” for the credulous idiots who voted for them. They are fully aware of the extent to which decisions made by legislators are controlled by corporate donors, especially from the military-industrial complex. In other words, DPRK understands that anything short of complete and utter capitulation by them is unacceptable to most cliques in the american government. But, they also know that many in South Korea are willing to sign an agreement with far more realistic terms.

And this brings us the question as to why DPRK issued such a nice and polite response to Trump cancelling the upcoming meeting. Here is a hint.. their main target audience is in South Korea. They are just making sure that everyone in South Korea and other relevant countries such as China, Russia etc can see that they are the rational party willing to enter into negotiations to make a realistic deal. In contrast, the almost predictable actions by Trump and his clique of neocon chicken-hawks make them look like delusional and irrational warmongers, especially in the wake of them also exiting the Iran deal. It also helps that Trump’s decision to cancel the meeting without providing any significant warning to the South Korean president makes him look weak to his own citizens in addition to being highly insulting.

But perhaps, more importantly, it makes it painfully clear to South Koreans that USA has no interest in helping solve this problem. It also confirms their suspicions that the USA is willing to start some stupid misadventure which could spiral into nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, for no reason other than to mollify its ego. And the best part, as far as DPRK is concerned, is that Trump and his clique of neocons are doing such a great job by unwittingly acting out their parts in the script. To make a long story short, the behavior of Trump and the american establishment leaves no real option for South Koreans than to start decoupling from USA and start mending their fences with DPRK. In case you are wondering, the only other option is a war which will result in the death of millions in South Korea.

DPRK might be half a world away from mainland USA, but it is next to South Korea. While the average person in USA can afford, at least at this moment, to pretend that they would not be affected in the event of war on the Korean peninsula, his or her counterpart in South Korea knows for a fact that they will have to pay a very high price for such an occurrence. Hence, South Koreans are far more interested in finding a way to peacefully co-exist with their counterparts in DPRK than people in USA. The recent charm offensive by Kim Jong-un in combination with the unrealistic and erratic behavior of Trump and the rest of the american establishment just make it far easier for South Koreans to start decoupling their foreign policy from that of USA. And decouple they will.. even if takes a year or two to start noticing the change.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s Motivations Behind Wanting to Meet Trump

April 20, 2018 9 comments

With the corporate media fixating on non-issues such as Comey’s recent book, the Mueller fishing expedition, Stormy Daniels latest BS claims and the most hilarious photo of Michael Cohen, it is not easy for many people in USA to be aware of the world beyond their borders. Also, as they say, nobody has gone broke underestimating the intelligence of american public. With that in mind, let us talk about an apparently unusual recent development in the state of relations between DPRK and USA. In case you missed it, the most important words in that sentence are ‘apparently unusual’- for reasons you shall see later on in this post.

Now, I am sure that at least some of you must have wondered about what factors were behind the sudden improvement in state of relations between DPRK and ROK (South Korea) since just before the 2018 winter Olympics. Why have relations between these two countries experienced a significant positive shift since the beginning of this year? And what does any of this have to do with the recent diplomatic overtures DPRK is making towards USA?

As regular readers know, I have written more than a few articles in the past few months about DPRK, especially its ICBM and nuclear weapon program. One of the more recent articles written by me on that topic made an interesting claim about how ICBMS and Nukes finally got Kim Jong-un the international respect he (and his predecessors) have always wanted. In that post, I also pointed out that Kim Jong-un’s recent interest in dialogue with ROK and USA were actually quite predictable since he has, in the past, repeatedly talked about his desire for such talks after DPRK acquired nukes and reliable ICBMs.

In fact, the stance of DPRK on talks with South Korea and USA have been pretty consistent over the years. They have also been very clear about what they want from any such deal. To summarize, DPRK wants a guarantee of security and non-aggression from USA and South Korea in addition to lifting of all economic sanctions against them in exchange for any deal which requires them to freeze their nuclear and missile program. The funny thing is such a deal with DPRK was reached and almost implemented in 1994. But american hubris and delusions of omnipotence ended up sabotaging what was probably the best (and only) chance of DPRK giving up its nuclear weapons.

The failure of that deal under Clinton42 and being labelled as part of ‘the axis of evil’ by Bush43 did however teach DPRK an important lesson. They realized that any deal made with the USA without the means for to independently enforce it was not worth the paper on which it was written. That is why they decided to keep on developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Development of these weapon systems reached a new urgency once Kim Jong-un formally became the head of state and the results of that drive are plainly visible. To make a long story short, nuclear weapons and ICBMs are the means by which DPRK can enforce any agreements it makes with USA and South Korea.

But haven’t we all heard some noise about DPRK willing to denuclearize soon? Well.. you heard wrong. DPRK is just repeating what it has always said, which is that it willing to participate in talks about denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The precise wording does change a bit every time they make that offer, however the general gist of their demands remains the same. In short, they will denuclearize only if guaranteed safety from future military attacks or invasion by USA or South Korea. The problem with that condition is that USA has proved to be a completely unreliable party to such agreements in the past, with DPRK and more recently with countries in the Middle-East.

It does not help that no country has renounced self-developed nuclear weapons once they have built more than a few of them. Nor does the american treatment of countries which did not have them (Iraq) or stopped developing them (Libya) inspire any confidence. So what is Kim Jong-un trying to achieve by meeting with Trump? Also, is this meeting really about Trump or USA? Some jingoistic idiots in USA think that Kim Jong-un expressing a desire to meet Trump is the result of “economic sanctions working”, “China finally getting tired of DPRK” or some other assorted masturbatory fantasy common among older white men. The reality, once again, is quite different.

The proposed meeting with Trump is largely about chipping away at the alliance between South Korea and USA. And here is why.. For starters, the ruling class in DPRK have a very good and objective understanding of how the establishment in USA works or does not work. They know that the deep state in USA is incapable of doing things other than more war, economic sanctions or attempting to rape the economies of other countries. They understand that any treaty with USA without independent means to enforce it is worthless. They also understand that anything short of dissolving the current system in DPRK will not be acceptable to the deep state in USA- and that is not going to happen.

They have figured out that different parts of the government in USA, such as the legislatures, can and will derail any agreement just because the D-grade actors within them like to “act tough” for the credulous idiots who voted for them. They are fully aware of the extent to which decisions made by legislators are controlled by corporate donors, especially from the military-industrial complex. In other words, DPRK understands that anything short of complete and utter capitulation by them is unacceptable to most cliques in the american government. But, they also know that many in South Korea are willing to sign an agreement with far more realistic terms.

So how do you drive a permanent wedge between South Korea and USA? Well.. you start by developing the capacity to reliably nuke large metropolitan areas in mainland USA. Acquisition of such a capacity by DPRK makes any serious conventional or nuclear assault on it by USA and South Korea basically impossible. It also makes significant american intervention in any armed conflict between DPRK and South Korea far less likely than before. But that by itself is not enough to drive a wedge between them, which is why you require the second part.

Then next step for driving a wedge between them requires DPRK to put forth conditions for an agreement whose terms are perfectly acceptable to South Korea but will never be accepted by USA (even if they initially appear to be willing). We should therefore see the latest diplomatic overtures by Kim Jong-un as part of a strategy where he offers basically everything necessary for South Korea to accept the agreement but with just enough sticking points to be rejected by USA. That way, Kim Jong-un appears as the stable and reasonable person willing to deal with other countries such as South Korea while USA look like some out-of-touch old white guy still living in the 1950s.

But why do such something like this, if it is almost certain to fail? After all, South Korea is unlikely to sign an agreement without the explicit approval of USA.. right? But here is the thing.. DPRK understands that and actually wants that outcome because of what such a public failure will lead to. While South Korea will not sign an agreement without explicit american consent at this moment, it might very well have to do within a couple of years. Face it.. DPRK with its nukes and ICBMs is going to magically disappear if you wait long enough and South Korea understands that only too well. They also know that some stupid miscalculation by USA (especially the Trump administration) in near future could get them nuked regardless of who started the conflict.

In summary, the long-term survival and strategic interests of South Korea are no longer in line with american policy towards that region. DPRK understands this inherent contradiction and is cleverly using it to split the close alliance between South Korea and USA. To them, the proposed meeting with Trump is therefore just an opportunity to decisively show South Koreans and the world that they are far more reasonable than USA. They also know that the sheer amount of vitriol against Trump by the deep state in USA will cancel out any reasonable move made by him in such a meeting.

What do you think? Comments?

Kim Jong-un’s Nukes and ICBMs Finally Got Him Real Respect from USA

March 9, 2018 9 comments

As many regular readers know, I have written more than a few posts about the nuclear and ballistic missile programs of DPRK in the past(link 1, link 2, link 3). I have also written about how grandiose delusions, anti-Asian racism and a general disconnect from reality by policy makers in USA still prevents them from addressing the issue of normalizing relations with DPRK in anything approaching a rational manner (link 4, link 5, link 6, link 7). The main thread running through all those posts can be summarized as the following: DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile program is a highly rational response to american foreign policy in the post-1991 era. In that respect, it is no different from the recent announcement by Putin of Russia developing multiple next-generation nuclear missile systems.

It should be obvious to any rational observer that american foreign policy since 1991 towards the rest of the world can be largely summed as “my way or no way”. Unfortunately for the deep state in USA, developments in the rest of the world within the last two decades have slowly but irreversibly reduced their ability to enforce their writ outside their borders. The epic and costly military failures suffered by USA in Afghanistan and Iraq have sped along this process to the point where the USA cannot even enforce its writ in regions as troubled and historically divided as Syria. The economic crash of 2008, and its aftermath, have also contributed to this permanent reduction in american ability to enforce its rules outside its borders.

But what does any of this have to do with the recent announcement that Kim Jong-un is ready to meet Trump later this year? And what does it really mean, now that Trump has accepted the offer to meet Kim Jong-un in person?

The very short answer to both those questions is that Kim Jong-un has got what he wanted in the manner he wanted. Some of you might think that this is not case based on the ravings of some idiots on right-wing cable TV or a snarky article in an allegedly “mainstream” newspaper. Those charlatans and idiots want you to believe that it has something to do with economic sanctions and Trump acting crazy. However, even a brief overview of DPRK history would show you that its government has repeatedly demonstrated incredible resistance in the face of severe economic sanctions. Moreover, Trump is not the first american president to threaten them with nuclear annihilation.

So why has Kim Jong-un now expressed an interest in talks with South Korea and USA? Also, why was he so resistant to starting talks with either country even a few months ago? What changed? The simple answer to that question is within the last 12 months, DPRK has demonstrated that it has thermonuclear weapons and mobile ICBMs which can reach any part of mainland USA. The government of DPRK rightly figured out that any talks started by them before those successful demonstrations would be from a position of weakness as their bargaining power would be rather limited under those circumstances. Any treaty or agreement reached under those conditions would be very one-sided and against their best interests.

They, therefore, decided to first develop their thermonuclear weapons and mobile ICBMs to the point where they possessed a credible capability to nuke cities in USA. The development of such a deterrent greatly restricts the military options available to USA on the Korean peninsula. It also creates a wedge between South Korea and USA, since the former is no longer certain about whether the later will always support it or alternatively make things worse. So far, the overall scheme appears to have worked and South Korea now seems to be interested in reaching some sort of deal to stabilize the situation with them. But that is not the biggest PR triumph achieved by Kim Jong-un under this new strategy..

Since 1991, DPRK has tried to ‘normalize’ diplomatic relations with USA in a way that would not destabilize the current regime. Kim Jong-un’s father and grandfather did try, on multiple occasions, to arrange public meetings with serving presidents of USA (Clinton 42, Bush 43 and Obama 44). While Clinton and Carter did visit DPRK after finishing their presidential terms, DPRK has not yet been able to get a serving american president to publicly meet their leader or even obtain such a commitment. Well.. yesterday, Trump accepted Kim Jong-un’s invitation to meet him sometime in the next few months. Some of you might say that Trump makes lots of promises which he does not, or cannot, keep.. and this may be one of them.

But make no mistake, Kim Jong-un has achieved within a few years what his predecessors could not, over many decades.

To be clear, I am not implying that this meeting will occur within the next few months or that it will result in denuclearization of DPRK. In fact, it is highly unlikely that DPRK will make any concessions beyond temporary and conditional freezes on future nuclear and missile tests. Countries which have spent so much effort and resources on developing nuclear weapons and ICBMs will never give them away, especially when it was their acquisition which led others to treat them with respect. It is more likely that such a meeting, if it were to occur, would be a major PR coup for Kim Jong-un and perhaps a starting point for realistic negotiations between DPRK, South Korea and USA.. though the later outcome is still unlikely.

What do you think? Comments?