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Some Initial Thoughts about Robert Mueller’s Congressional Testimony

July 24, 2019 2 comments

As many of you know, earlier today, Robert Mueller finally testified for a few hours in front of two congressional committees about the findings in his eponymous report. While I was occupied with work during most of that disappointing spectacle, checking Twitter and YT later in the day allowed me to catch up with the sad farce.. I mean.. congressional testimony. So here are some of my initial thoughts about the failed spectacle and its immediate aftermath.

1] Robert Mueller’s physical appearance, general demeanor and style of answering questions did him no favors. Unless you are a partisan democrat or mainstream journalist, his performance before the committees was insipid- at best. Maybe the guy did not have a good night’s sleep or perhaps he did not eat breakfast or drink enough coffee. It is hard to deny that he looked like a university student attending an early morning lecture. But why is this even relevant?

Well.. because, for over two years he was widely portrayed in the MSM as some energetic, super-competent and zealous prosecutor who was chosen by destiny to gather enough evidence to finally impeaching Trump. Today he looked and behaved like just another tired 74-year-old guy who wasn’t there willingly or had anything new or interesting to say. It may have been sad to watch for all of his ex-worshipers, but it was also very predictable.

2] Despite what the hacks at CNN and MSNBC are spinning right now, nothing Mueller said today was new or even surprising. His answers to questions from democrats and republicans actually contained less information than the redacted version of his report. Some of them, such as those about his apparent lack of knowledge about previous close ties between some members of his investigative team and Hillary Clinton, made him look less honest than before.

But most importantly, Mueller never said or explicitly implied those magic words which democrats have been yearning to hear for the past two years. He never said (or explicitly implied) that Trump was guilty or should impeached. And it was not for lack of effort by democrats who tried pretty hard to coax those words out of him or somehow get him to go along with their talking points implying the same. Whichever way you look at it, it was a public failure for democrats.

3] As you might have seen on most cable news channels today (and in newspapers tomorrow) attempts to spin his testimony as some sort of “win” for democrats are looking even more hollow than before. Which is especially comic given that the object of their hate is a highly unpopular lecherous orange troll whose sole claim to fame lies in his proclivity to say or tweet increasingly outrageous stuff. The fact that a stupid dumbfuck such as Trump seems less dishonest than the MSM says far more about the later than the former.

To make matters worse (if that was possible) talking heads on cable news and “respectable” pressitutes in print media are acting as if Mueller’s testimony was another big step towards gathering more public support for impeaching Trump. This is distinct from pretending that his testimony was some sort of “win” for democrats. They actually want to pretend as if Mueller’s pathetic performance during those two congressional testimonies was either stellar or pretty good. Someone has to tell them that wrapping a turd in a nice cover doesn’t make it an eclair.

4] It is even more obvious that establishment democrats lack a viable strategy to remove Trump from office or defeat him in 2020. Their anti-Trump strategy is based on endlessly repeating “Trump is a bad bad man” (2016 redux) or praying for a Mueller miracle. Given that the second option is now closed, I expect them to double down on the first. It is as if they learned nothing from 2016. Then again, I have been saying that for some time now.

I do however agree with Michael Tracey that the internal pressure on house democrats to start impeachment investigations against Trump is now going to increase even further. Furthermore, I would not be surprised if Pelosi and company finally gave the wishes of an increasing number of members in their caucus and started such an investigation. In other words, 2019 and 2020 will be even bigger shitshows than 2015 and 2016.

What do you think? Comments?

2019 and 2020 Will be Much Bigger Shitshows than 2015 and 2016

May 30, 2019 14 comments

As regular readers know, I often make predictions on a number of topics which later turn out to be right (or pretty close) with a high rate of success. More importantly, I am able to accurately identify the underlying dynamics, trends and forces responsible for the ultimate outcomes. Now let me make another seemingly obvious prediction, but with far greater insight and details than possible for quacks.. I mean credentialed “experts”. My prediction is that 2019 and 2020 will be far larger and more problematic shitshows than 2015 and 2016. Some of you (MikeCA?) might argue that every day since the election of Trump has been a shitshow.. and that is technically sorta true. But if you think that 2017 and 2018 were shitshows, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

There are many reasons why this period of 1.5 years will be an epic meta-shitshow of the likes we haven’t witnessed in living memory. However, it is not simply the sheer number or magnitude of individual shitshows that will make this period memorable, but how one shitshow will feed into another and so on.. you know, synergy. But before we go there, let us talk about why 2015 and 2016 marked the beginning of our current era of shitshows. It all began with an orange Buffoon riding down a gaudy escalator alongside a trophy wife with a face pumped full of cosmetic Botox. Initially it seemed that his campaign for the republican presidential nomination was just another publicity stunt to obtain a larger payout from the reality show in which he was starring.

However it became obvious to me within 4-6 weeks that his outrageous and colorful persona had far more public support than effete Washington DC ‘insiders’ realized. And yes.. I never changed my opinion on that issue and turned out be right. And ya.. I also predicted he would win against Hillary in early 2016, even at times when even the most radical presstitues.. I mean journalists.. thought that HRC might somehow prevail against him on election day. I also explored the real reasons why HRC would lose to that buffoon– before the election took place. FYI- majority of my accurate predictions have been about issues and topics other than Trump. But enough about the orange buffoon. Let us now talk about Brexit- more precisely, why the ‘remain’ side lost.

MSM news outlets in that rapidly decaying country (UK) want you to believe that Brexit was due to the stupidity of poorly educated people in that country. However a simple look at the geography of that vote tells you all you need about Brexit. Long story short, post-2008 austerity measures in UK hit parts of the country that are not London pretty hard. People who live in those regions, aka most of that country, got progressively disillusioned with the shitty status quo. They expressed their discontent by voting against something which stood as a placeholder for the widely reviled status quo. You know.. just like people in the Mid-West finally got tired of Obama’s 8-year long lie about “Hope and Change” voted for Trump over the symbol of continuity aka HRC.

But both these shocks to the Establishment, their aftermath and colorful rhetoric accompanying both those changes are nothing compared to what we will witness in 2019 and 2020. While I will restrict my predictions to USA, things are also likely to get interesting in other parts of the world- maybe a bit too interesting. But before we go to the list, a word of caution. The most obvious reasons are unlikely to be the most consequential. The less glamorous reasons, further down the list, carry far more weight than the shiny but superficial ones which are obvious. So let us start by listing them in order of apparent obviousness.

1] Ever since Trump won the republican nomination in mid-2016, democratic establishment and deep state types have been trying to find enough dirt to stop his victory in the 2016 presidential election (which they failed) or impeach him. As things stand today, they have not uncovered anything more scandalous than Trump getting his disgraced lawyer to pay hush money to two women he had sex with while married to his current wife. While this revelation does provide fodder for supermarket tabloids, it is totally unsurprising and in line with Trump’s past behavior. More importantly, the Mueller investigation has not uncovered evidence of “collusion” between Trump and Russia or Putin. Nor has it shown any definitive evidence for obstruction of justice by Trump. And I know MikeCA will have something to say about my characterization of that report.

But these severe setbacks have not stopped an increasing number of democrats from demanding his impeachment, because face it.. they always knew he was “guilty” of something impeachable. Today, the patron saint of pro-impeachment brigade aka Robert Mueller came out and all but openly encouraged democrats to start the impeachment process, even though his report does not contain enough evidence to prosecute Trump for either “collusion” or obstruction of justice. And ya.. I am aware of the legalese bullshit about not being able to exonerate him- but let us get real, people are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. It also helps to be rich and white, but that is a topic for another post. My prediction is that democrats will initiate pre-impeachment proceedings against Trump, irrespective of potential negative effects it might have on their electoral prospects in 2020. But how does this translate into a nasty shitshow?

Well.. for a few reasons. Firstly, it is unlikely Trump will be impeached, tried and made to resign before November 3, 2020. Secondly, the pre-impeachment investigation is going to be long and highly contentious. It will also overshadow democratic primaries and possibly the presidential election to such an extent that other issues will be effectively sidelined. So be prepared for a democratic primary in which candidates offer endless paeans to bipartisanship, civility in politics, reestablishing “norms” and impeaching Trump at the expense of all the other stuff most voters in the general election actually care about. You know.. stuff like antitrust action against various monopolies and oligopolies, medicare for all, doing something about student debt etc. Think of HRCs “what will the children think” 2016 campaign on steroids. But in some ways, this will be smallest shitshow of them all.

2] Stupid old losers who constitute a majority of democratic primary voters in large states seem to be enamored by “gun control” aka banning civilian ownership of guns. Given that everyone in the packed clown car of democratic candidates is expected to appeal to them, one should expect increasingly shrill and strident anti-gun ownership rhetoric. While appealing to these losers might help one win the primary and a few coastal states in general, it is almost guaranteed to backfire in swing states- especially those with large rural and semi-urban populations. Now add in a few random mass shootings (almost inevitable?) between now and Nov 3, 2020 and you can imagine how nutty this could get. Expect the Democratic house to pass one or more atrociously written anti-gun ownership laws and a few high profile court cases.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, we have seen a recent trend by private corporate monopolies/ oligopolies based in heavily democratic states to deny services based on ideology. Here are a few recent examples.. Software Maker Salesforce Tells Gun Retailers to Stop Selling AR-15s, YouTube Alternatives for Gun Videos & Content Creators and Bank of America to Stop Financing Makers of Military-Style Guns. I, for one, don’t see how pissing off millions of well-armed and single-issue voters who live in gun-ownership friendly jurisdictions is a smart idea when your party has to win their votes in 2020. Then again, this is the same party which think that Joe Biden in 2020 would make the best general election candidate. Or maybe the Democrats don’t want to really win national elections. Who knows..

The large number of democratic candidates vying for the party nomination will make things even weirder than the republican field in 2016. We have all seen how small campaigns which use far less costly traditional advertising and advisers can prevail over larger “mainstream” operations. Between this and the proliferation of small donors, expect far more candidates to remain in the race even after the first major primaries are over. And the DNC and other party establishment are going to try hard, and ineffectually, to stop Bernie by hook or crook. Don’t be surprised if the 2020 democratic convention is held under even more acrimonious circumstances than 2016. And there will be anonymous leaks, just like last time. It is going to get real ugly by mid 2020.

3] Let us now turn to the less obvious, but far more consequential, trends which promise to make 2019 and 2020 the biggest shitshows in living memory. Long story short, we are due for at least three independent nasty blowbacks from Trump’s foreign and trade policies. Let us start by talking about Iran or more precisely how his stupid policy towards that country has the potential to backfire in a spectacularly disastrous manner. It is no secret that idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton, urged on by Zionists and Saudis, are trying to start a war. What they don’t understand, or are willing to understand, is that any war with Iran in addition being unwinnable would make the Iraq misadventure look like quaint in comparison. The outcome of such a war would include Iran finally developing nuclear weapons (perhaps with Chinese assistance), prolonged and massive oil shortages with resultant price hikes and many other bad long-term effects (on USA).

Moving on.. Kim Jon-un has repeatedly conveyed to USA that unless economic sanctions are at least partially removed by end of 2019, he will restart testing ICBMs. My guess is that DPRK will demonstrate an entirely solid-fueled ICBM in early 2020, unless Trump and the idiots running “foreign policy” in USA openly abandon the idea of DPRK giving up its nukes and ICBMS- because the later ain’t going to happen. Which means that sometime in 2020, Trump will have to decide on how to respond to new ICBM and perhaps even nuclear tests by DPRK. To make matters even more interesting, this escalation will likely occur around the same time as Iran is likely to finally leave the JCPOA and restart its uranium enrichment program at maximum capacity. But wait.. it gets even better, or worse, depending on your viewpoint.

As most of you know by now, Trump is involved in an unwinnable trade-war with China. And here is why.. China’s economy and manufacturing capacity is far larger than USA in real terms. While the american economy and system will implode without Chinese imports, the converse is not true. There is also no other country in the world that has as large, varied and sophisticated a manufacturing base as China. Did I mention that USA and rest of the “West” are economically stagnant, demand saturated and in overall decline. China is not going to compromise on Huawei, give in to demands of american corporations or basically change anything significant about how it works or does business. It is the USA and rest of “West” that will have to ultimately eat crow. And they will start hurting USA by screwing over Boeing and make life interesting for every american corporation which does significant amounts of business there or dependent on its exports.

Tensions with Russia could exacerbate further given the current political climate in USA and provide opportunity for yet another shitshow. Did I mention how conflicts between internet monopolies and right wingers could spill into the real world with potentially disastrous results for the former. To summarize, the rest of 2019 and whole of 2020 will almost certainly witness far larger and problematic shitshows than anything in living memory. Even worse, many of these shitshows could feed into each other to create meta-shitshows.

What do you think? Comments?

Some Initial Thoughts on the Mueller Report: YouTube Edition

April 19, 2019 1 comment

As almost everyone must have heard by now, the Mueller Report (1st redacted version) has been finally released. An OCRed version of that report, for easier searching etc, can be found here- link for OCRed version. While I have downloaded and read parts of that report, it is not that exciting and a bit too long for my taste. In any case, it did not uncover any evidence of “collusion” or a conspiracy between members of the Trump 2016 team and “Russia” or “Putin”. Sure.. it contains a body of evidence that Trump is a short-sighted and dishonest moron. But tell me something.. did you really require the Mueller Report to tell you that? Wasn’t is obvious?

While I write about my own take on that infamous report later, a good percentage of my initial thoughts to the Mueller Report has already been summarized by Michael Tracey in this YT clip. In it, he systematically goes through how this report trashes many of the fake stories promoted by the supposedly objective corporate media for the past two years. One almost gets the feeling that a lot of MSM “reporting” about the progress of this investigation was wishful thinking, sketchy gossip and outright delusions rather than anything remotely factual.Use headphones for this clip since the volume is rather low.

The saddest, but most predictable, part of the corporate media’s reaction to this report concerns how they are desperately trying to pretend that “it does not change anything and Trump is guilty of something”. While almost everyone agrees that Trump is a shady and corrupt businessman, let me remind you that the special counsel investigation was about whether he (or his team) had conspired with Russia during the 2016 election. It is, however, funny to watch how the Trump Derangement Syndrome still has such a strong hold on most alleged “journalists”. If you don’t believe me, have a look at this series of exchanges between Glenn Greenwald and David Cay Johnston- especially how Johnston pretends that the report proves his prior accusations.

What do you think? Comments?

Democratic Zeal for ‘Gun Control’ and ‘Mueller Report’ Has Same Root

April 9, 2019 3 comments

In previous posts, I have written about the obsession of democratic party with gun control, why it is doomed and futile in addition to being an important factor in them possibly losing the 2020 election. A couple of years ago, I started to notice similarities between obsession of establishment democrat with ‘Gun Control’ and the ‘Mueller Investigation’- which recently concluded to produce the ‘Mueller Report’. There are, of course, some obvious similarities between the two, such as the very high degree of overlap between strong supporters and peddlers of ‘Gun Control’ and the Mueller Investigation’. But the similarities between those who support and promote these two causes run far deeper and are deeply linked to their worldview.

Let me begin by pointing out the demographic similarities between those who support and peddle both causes. Their supporters are almost always from certain parts of coastal USA or aspiring to move there, often come from or are associated with families who made their money via legalized corruption and scams, were “credentialed” at a few “respectable” educational institutions, have first or second order connections with the now dying mass media and corporate entertainment sectors, tout themselves as social progressives but are (in reality) strong supporters of continued economic immiseration of all those ‘other people’ via neoliberalism. A certain ethno-religious minority is also represented at high levels in supporters of both causes. But why would support for ‘Gun Control’ and ‘Mueller Investigation’ co-localize with “woke” neoliberalism?

The answer is a bit complicated and requires us to first understand why ‘Gun Control’ in USA only became a thing after the 1970s. As I wrote in a previous post, the obsession of democratic party and moderate republicans with gun control is strongly associated with their upper ranks being filled by “credentialed” professional class types. Have you noticed the correlation between rigid social class structure and support for gun control in modern nation states? Ever wondered why dying nations with a rigid social class system such as UK, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Brazil have much stricter gun laws than less socially stratified countries such as Lebanon, Finland, Switzerland and yes.. USA. The observant among you might have noticed that Mexico and Brazil have far higher rates of homicide by guns than countries with far more permissive laws. Also, South Korea and Japan have significantly higher rates of successful suicide than USA, in spite of civilian gun ownership being essentially illegal in those countries.

But what does any of this have to do with support for ‘Gun Control’ and the ‘Mueller Investigation’ in USA having the same root. The short answer is- a whole fucking lot! Have you noticed that a lot of people who were praying for Trump to be found guilty of “collusion with Russia and Putin” happened to live in coastal California, New York and DC? Isn’t it odd that this same group of “famous credentialed” people who rose to their current socio-economic status due to “meritocracy” happen to also be strong proponents of ‘Gun Control’? And why would they be concentrated in California, New York, DC, Massachusetts and New Jersey. Also, why is the ‘Gun Control’ movement much weaker in other coastal states such as Florida, the two Carolinas, Louisiana or even Maine? What is the real difference between coastal states such as NY, CA, MA and FL, SC, NC, LA and ME? And ya, I know DC is not a state.

Did you notice that degree of economic inequality in a given state correlates rather well with the number and extent of ‘Gun Control’ laws passed and enforced in it. Yes.. that is correct. Economic inequality rather than absolute wealth or poverty of a state correlates far better with its effete elites pushing for ultimately ineffective ‘Gun Control’. And there is one more interesting tidbit about ‘Gun Control’ in USA, namely that almost all initial attempts to pass modern ‘Gun Control’ laws were made by old money WASPs living in certain parts of coastal USA. The ethno-religious minority often associated with ‘Gun Control’ in contemporary USA did not get into that game until the 1970s and 1980s, which is oddly enough when they overtook old money WASPs as elites.

But what does this to do with support for the ‘Mueller Investigation’ and why were a majority of establishment elites in USA so incensed by Trump winning the 2016 election. While we can all agree that orange buffoon is a pathetic human being, what makes him worse than any previous person elected to that office? Think about it.. Nixon was responsible for millions of deaths in Vietnam, Las and Cambodia and he still lost the Vietnam War. Carter was a sad wimp whose term saw the rise of neoliberalism. Reagan presided over beginning of american de-industrialization. Bush41 and Clinton42 were responsible for a lot of deaths in Iraq during the 1990s. Clinton42 also oversaw financial deregulation, rise of mass incarceration and many other neoliberal policies. Bush43 oversaw beginning of the end for American empire by getting involved in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama44 got us involved in many unnecessary conflicts in Africa and bailed out the 1% while fucking over everybody else in 2009.. so like a black Clinton42 or Reagan40.

My point is that a lot of people elected to the presidency in living memory have been disastrous fuckups- at least for the majority of those who voted for them. In that respect, Trump is no worse than Obama, Clinton or the two Bushes. So why are establishment elites getting their panties in a knot over the orange buffoon. Haven’t most of his policies and actions, thus far, been faithful to standard Republican-style neoliberal bullshit? Tax cuts for the rich, continuous increasing the military budget, bellicose behavior on the international stage, hiring racists and religious zealots- you know, the works. But for not starting a new major war or two, the Trump presidency is remarkably close to that of Bush43. And yet, establishment types never went after that retarded loser.. I mean Bush43.. like they did to Trump. But why is that so?

Well.. it comes down to a few simple facts about the composition of elites in USA and to be fair, elites throughout human history. The thing is.. elites almost never reach their position because they are hard workers, honest, intelligent, competent or any of the other bullshit things they like others to believe about themselves. Almost every single person who became an elite achieved that by being born to the right set of parents or being at the right place at the right time aka luck. In other words, the became elites by getting lucky. So how do they try to maintain their position? Well.. by trying to con other people that they became rich and powerful because they were deserving, somehow special, super-intelligent, chosen by god etc.

So how does this play out in the real world? Once again.. that depends on circumstances beyond human control. Non-elites will tolerate and even trust elites as long as things are generally getting better. That is why average British people looked up to their elites between the early 1800s and end of WW1, and is also why the aftermath of WW2 saw large changes in the role of hereditary elite in that society. The same is true for american society where the power of WASPs declined once it became obvious by the 1960s that they were nowhere as competent and smart as they portrayed themselves. Did you notice a trend? If not, let me spell it out for you. The ability of elites to remain in their positions is totally dependent on all those ‘other people’ willing to go along with the charade. This is also why elite replacement is often abrupt and almost total.

Now let us talk about the post-1960s elites of USA. As some of you might have guessed, it does include a rather large number of people from a certain ethno-religious minority. But there is much more to this story than that fact. See.. unlike pre-1960 era elites, their post-1960s era equivalents are different, and not just as far as their skin color and last names are concerned. Let me put it this way.. unlike their older equivalents, they are a much more atomized group. It is far easier to fall out of being an elite today (for most) than it was as late as the 1950s. So how does one maintain their social position in such a precarious and competitive marketplace.

For starters- they can marry among themselves, attend the same schools and universities, hang out with the same groups of people and build networks of mutual patronage. But all of this is no longer enough. They have to do something else.. something at which they suck. Today’s elites have to cosplay as hard-working, supremely competent and well spoken geniuses. That is a huge problem- because they have none of the qualities they pretend to possess. The only way they can partially achieve that goal is via institutional capture and trying to remove any threats to the status quo. This is why these new elites are so obsessed with ‘Gun Control’, censoring ‘Hate Speech’, promoting “woke” neoliberal ideology etc. The world however keeps evolving and what these idiots though would last forever does not. Even worse, events such as Brexit in 2015 and the election of Trump in 2016 demonstrate their utter impotence.

And that, you see, is the underlying connection between establishment democratic zeal for ‘Gun Control’ and the ‘Mueller Investigation’. Real world events have exposed them to be stupid, greedy, short-sighted, incompetent and impotent. However they lack the willingness, let alone ability, to change their modus operandi. They simply double down on the only things and pathways they have ever known. This is also why so many establishment democrats pretended (even to themselves) that Trump could be impeached by evidence uncovered by the ‘Mueller Investigation’. That is also why they delude themselves into believing that voter support for ‘Gun Control’ is far stronger than it is, or how they imagine that all those new voters are going to vote for ‘Gun Control’. Some of you might think they can change, however everything we know about the behavior of elites throughout human history suggest otherwise. There is a reason why the phenomena of almost total elite replacement exists.. you know.

What do you think? Comments?