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Posts Tagged ‘russia’

On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 2

July 16, 2017 6 comments

In the previous post of this series, I wrote about how overt attempts by the establishment and its MSM stooges to invalidate Trump’s victory in the 2016 election by connecting him to a largely made-up “russian conspiracy” are not gaining support among the general population. Now.. this does not imply that Trump is becoming more popular. In fact, he probably has the worst levels of public support for a president in living memory. However, his low approval ratings are due to his general incompetence in combination with numerous poor policy and personnel choices, rather than most people seeing seeing him as a traitor or usurper.

When I wrote the previous, and first, post in this series we still had not heard much about the latest development in this darkly funny shit-show. As almost every single one of you must have heard many times by now, one of his son (Donald Trump Jr.) had a metting with a mediocre but semi-connected Russian lawyer and a few other people who were supposed to provide some ‘dirt’ on HRC related to some of the Clinton families dealings with a few shady rich Russians. You might have also heard that the meeting in question, which occurred in mid-summer 2016, was attended by an odd cast of characters. Anyway.. as far we know, no money changed hands and very little of what was discussed concerned HRC.

Of course, the MSM is having a field day with this most recent “scandal”. In fact, they have gone so far as to greatly exaggerate the positions, abilities and power of the Russians who attended that meeting. For example- the MSM is portraying Natalia Veselnitskaya (the Russian layer) as some sinister genius when it well-known that she was, at best, a mediocre lawyer who happened to marry a semi-powerful prosecutor in her home country. Rinat Akhmetshin (lobbyist) is being portrayed as a “soviet” counter-intelligence sleeper operative while, in reality, he was just another semi-ambitious guy who joined the soviet army in late-1980s to get out of Kazakhstan and then moved to USA after the collapse of USSR in 1991.

My point is, the people attending that meeting were not especially smart or competent. I would go even further and say that this meeting and its cast of attendees had more in common with a sub-plot in “Arrested Development” than anything which could pass for half-competent espionage and skulduggery.

Nonetheless, establishment democrats are busy promoting this alleged scandal as the “smoking gun” which will finally allow them to impeach Trump and make him resign or remove him from office. Of course, doing so would result in an outwardly normal looking religious nutcase, also known as Mike Pence, becoming the President. Then again, establishment democrats have not displayed much ability to think strategically. I mean.. they have lost almost 1,00 state legislature seats and dozens of governor races in the previous 8 years, in addition to losing the house and senate at the national level. Their only major “success” has been stopping Bernie Sanders from winning the party nomination in 2016- though that one turned out to be a really bad idea.

Having said that, let us consider the short (weeks) and medium (months) term consequences of the establishment democrat obsession with somehow connecting Trump to Putin and Russia. Firstly, they seem to forget that the american electorate has heard this same basic fairy tale for almost a year now. Guess what.. Trump won the election even after democrats started pushing this story and his approval numbers, while low, are still a bit between than their own. Note to self- write a post on how democrats were able to achieve lower approval ratings than a reality TV star who has reneged on almost all of his electoral promises.

Secondly, their obsession with this made-up scandal has prevented them from focusing on his many real failures and fuckups. You would think that democrats would focus on Trump’s failures on issues such as preventing outsourcing or maintaining funding levels for popular government programs like social security, medicare and medicaid. But no.. democarts are busy pushing “Trump-Putin”, “Trump-Russia” and “Russia Hacked Our Sacred Elections” 24/7- regardless of the lack of solid evidence to support such connections and conclusions. Establishment democrat obsession with Trump-Putin-Russia (and simultaneous neglect of issues which most voters care about) is eroding their credibility with the broader electorate at an alarming rate.

Thirdly, making the MSM incessantly push this made-up scandal is corroding whatever residual credibility those outlets used to have- even six months ago. Think about it.. average people now know that CNN and MSNBC will spend multiple hours each day talking about the newest chapter of this obviously made up scandal while simultaneously ignoring their real and very serious concerns. They know that supposedly prestigious newspapers like the NYT and WP (and pretty much every other MSM paper) will almost certainly write a dozen pieces about this obviously made-up scandal every single day. Do you think they will care if and when they publish a genuine negative story about Trump?

Will write more about the general issue of credibility loss by establishment due to their numerous unsuccessful attempts at unseating Trump in a future post of this series.

What do you think? Comments?

On the Probability of Trump Completing His Term as President: 1

July 11, 2017 14 comments

One of the funny, if somewhat ironic, effects of persistent attempts by establishment democrats (and their media underlings) to delegitimize Trump’s victory in 2016 election by connecting him to some cartoon-ish “russian conspiracy” is that it has not increased their own popularity among the general population. It has, if anything, made them less popular than Trump- which is a most impressive feat. Curiously, the inability of establishment democrats to improve their approval ratings has occurred in spite of Trump doing his best to screw over the very people who voted for him by making a load of generally unpopular decisions on issues such as healthcare.

More than a few commentators on twitter have been baffled by the desire of establishment democrats to flog the dead horse of “russian conspiracy” while simultaneously ignoring issues which animate average people such as healthcare, jobs, education and other concerns based in real life. In my opinion, it comes down to the sad fact that they (and other “traditional” parties in the west) have become the willing and enthusiastic tools of multinational neoliberalism. In other words, supposedly “traditional” political parties have become intellectually bankrupt cults which lack the ability to perceive the world around them thorough anything other than a neoliberal filter.

But what about the question posed in the title of this post? Will Trump complete, or be able to complete, his four-year term as the president? Or will he be impeached before his term is over? Or will something, which will render both those options moot, occur before his term is over?

As many of you know, impeccably credentialed, coiffed and dressed presstitutes employed by main-stream media outlets (and their equivalents in the entertainment sector) have been busy trying to grab onto any piece of evidence and hearsay, ok.. mostly hearsay and fabrication, that Trump is a traitor who did something “bad” which will lead to his impeachment. As you know, I am no defender of Trump and expect his presidential term to be one giant shitshow. Having said that, I think it is incorrect to say that Trump’s behavior and actions are especially unusual for somebody who has been elected as president.

USA has had more than a few presidents who had behaved worse and done far more fucked up shit. If you don’t believe me, read a bit about people like Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Richard Milhous Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and yes.. even Barack Obama. Clearly.. being a child-fucker, genocidal racist, paranoid asshole, demented moron, corrupt piece of shit and obfuscating neoliberal is no barrier to getting elected and re-elected as president. Only a true believer in the dying cult of american exceptionalism would believe in the bullshit story that Trump is somehow uniquely damaging to the dignity of the “office”.

As things stand today, there is insufficient evidence that Trump did something illegal enough to make him resign or impeach him in a manner that looks impartial. Does that mean that Trump has not done anything illegal or made poor and questionable decisions? No.. it does not. For all we know he could be getting a blowjob from by his adult daughter under the table while eating well-done steak seasoned with tomato ketchup and accepting legal contributions from the Saudi crown prince. But you see.. none of those highly questionable decisions are sufficient to impeach him in an open trial.

If there was anything sufficient to impeach him in an open trial, we would have heard it on every mainstream media outlet by now.

So, what about the other establishment democrat plan- making him resign by harping on the alleged “russia conspiracy”? Well.. we kinda already know how that will turn out. As many of you might have noticed, most people in USA have tuned out of that farce. And why wouldn’t they? Every day brings yet more unsubstantiated claims about some connection between Trump and “Putin” that will definitely sink the former’s presidency and.. it all falls apart after a few days, or sometimes, even after a few hours. Meanwhile Trump is still president and playing golf on every single weekend.

I would go so far as to say that harping on the “russia conspiracy” now makes establishment democrats look like bungling idiots or bitter losers- depending on your viewpoint. There is therefore a better than 85% probability (my educated guess) that Trump will complete his term as a president. But what about the other 15%? What else could happen?

Here is where it gets a bit dark, but not in an unexpected manner. As many of you also know, some hyper-partisan democratic voters have bought into the narrative that Trump is somehow a traitor who is sullying the office of presidency. Given the secondary effects of many of Trump’s ill-advised policies and decisions, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that there might more than a few hyper-partisan democrats who will attempt to remove Trump from the presidency. We have already seen a teaser trailer of that particular movie, in the form of the recent shooting of Steve Scalise.

I would not be surprised if in a country of over 300 million people, more than a handful come to the conclusion that Trump has to be removed from office by any means possible. And one such attempt might actually succeed. Even more problematically, a successful attempt will result in lots of covert and not-so-covert celebration by establishment democrats and their hyper-partisan supporters. The point I am trying to make is that there is no good way out of this shitshow. Indeed, letting Trump complete his term might be the least worst option- especially for democrats. Will write more in a future part of this series depending on feedback from commentators.

What do you think? Comments?

How Trump has Screwed Himself Since his Inauguration: May 18, 2017

May 18, 2017 26 comments

A few months ago, I wrote a brief post about how the establishment would try to depose trump via a procedural coup. While I had initially planned to write a couple more posts in that series, the speed of unfolding events made me put that series on the back-burner. Well.. in the last few days, we have seen the first serious attempts to depose Trump via some combination of investigation committee and legal maneuvers. While it is too early to say where this series of interconnected clusterfucks will lead, one thing is for sure- this won’t be the last attempt by the establishment to depose Trump via less-than-democratic tactics.

To be clear, I have never been a supporter of Trump. However, I was able to accurately predict his victories in the republican primaries and 2016 presidential election many months before both events occurred. You might also remember about a subsequent series of posts which predicted that his administration would rapidly degenerate into some combination of dysfunction and towing the establishment republican line thus slowly destroying whatever popular support he had when he was elected in early Nov 2016.

As you also know, I am of the opinion that Trump’s connection with Russia is similar to the Clinton’s connection to China or the Bush family connection to Saudi Arabia. In other words, Trump is just another corrupt transnational plutocrat who will return favors to those who have funded his business ventures.. basically garden variety legalized political corruption. It is also telling that democrats have seized on such a banal issue to go after Trump when they could have done far better by opposing his various policies from a left-wing populist angle, but that is a subject best left for a subsequent post.

Coming back to the central theme of this post, let us talk about how Trump has screwed himself since his inauguration in late Jan 2017. Some of you might think that firing Comey was his biggest mistake. Others might think that Trump using Twitter after assuming office was his biggest mistake. Well.. I think otherwise. See, the biggest and most consequential mistakes Trump has made since his inauguration have nothing to do with single issues. To put it another way, his biggest and worst mistakes are systemic in nature.

1] Trump hired many establishment republicans and #nevertrump republicans in his administration.

A large part of Trump’s current problems can be traced to his decision to fill the ranks of his administration with establishment republicans including many #nevertrump types. People like Betsy Devos, Nikki Haley, H. R. McMaster and a host of ex- GoldmanSachs types and their underlings were never going to be loyal to Trump. If anything, most of them should be expected to actively undermine his presidency. And yet he hired them.. Frankly, hiring willing democrats would have been a safer option.

2] Trump also hired people who are despised by people other than his hardcore supporters.

Hiring highly unlikable people like Jeff Sessions, David Clarke and more than a few other law-and-order types was one of the other bad hiring decisions made by his administration. While such people might play to his shrinking core constituency, they have cost a lot of support from other groups who were previously ambivalent about his administration. The reality is that many who did not vote for HRC were quite OK with democratic policies and campaign promises. In other words, hiring people who really like persecuting women, blacks and hispanics is not a good branding decision.

3] Trump has been unable to give up on the MSM.

The relationship between Trump and the MSM is usually seen as one in which both parties hate each other. However, for most of Trump’s life, that was not the case. Indeed, the MSM (in all its forms) loved to cover Trump- often in a fairly positive light until he won the republican ticket. However since the late summer of 2016, the MSM has done nothing but attack Trump- often using made up “news”. While Trump has been able to counter that by, inadvertently, embracing alternative internet based news outlets- he has never been able to give up on the MSM. Consequently he is still trying to please what he still thinks is the “respectable” MSM.

4] Trump has hitched his wagon with unpopular causes promoted by republican establishment.

Trump has wasted too much of his political capital by promoting republican attempts to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something even more shittier, if you can imagine such a thing. As many of you know, Obamacare (previously known as Romneycare) was always a pretty shitty neoliberal attempt to solidify their grip on healthcare in USA. It was, however, an improvement over whatever existed prior to its passing in 2010. Repealing Obamacare, without replacing it something superior like single payer healthcare, therefore runs the risk of pissing of a lot of Trump voters- especially the non-traditional republican types who helped him win supposedly ‘blue’ and ‘purple’ states in 2016.

5] Trump has tried to become a boiler-plate republican.

One of the major reasons behind Trump’s victory in the republican primary and presidential election was his willingness to question traditional republican establishment positions such as “free” trade agreements, overseas military engagements and social conservatism. However he has flip-flopped on all those issues since he was elected. While voters expect politicians to break most (if not all) of their campaign promises, they expect them do so after pretending to try fulfilling them. Trump has simply acted as if he never campaigned on those positions in the first place. While pulling off such a reverse can work if your political future is secure, that is not the case for Trump. He needs continued popular support if he wants to complete his 4 year term in office.

In summary, Trump has been successful at making a series of mistakes whose combination is very likely to doom his presidency. Hiring back-stabbers and wildly unpopular assholes, attempting to make nice with MSM and screwing over the voters whose support led to his victory is not helpful when you want to win against an establishment campaign to get rid of you. Then again, the ability to think strategically was never his strong point.

What do you think? Comments?