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Will “Winner” of 2020 Presidential Election be Seen as Legitimate?

September 13, 2020 8 comments

As many of you know, 2020 has been a very interesting year. But what if I told you that it could get even more.. “interesting”. As some of you might remember, about two weeks ago I wrote a post about what might occur in case neither Trump nor Biden concedes after the 2020 election. I also wrote a post about the lack of realistic plans by Democrats if the election has uncertain or disputed results. Then there is my recent series about how the american elites, of both political parties, have lost touch with reality. Let us take all those thought experiments to the next step. Have you ever wondered what will occur if “winner” of 2020 election, assuming there is one, will be seen as legitimate. Now some of you, such as MikeCA, might say that the situation will resolve itself like it did in aftermath of the infamous 2000 election. I am not be sure about such a benign outcome and here are a few reasons for that belief.

1] People often forget that the America of 2000 was a very different place from the one we live in today. Sure.. this might not be evident by looking at photographs of downtown skylines, suburbs or even the underwear styles and pubic hair grooming of young women- we might as well be in a different country. 2000 was the peak of public acceptance of neoliberalism. That election had one of the lowest electoral turnouts in this country since WW2, and remember that the 90s had the lowest average turnout since 1940s. It also occurred at the peak of prosperity and well-being that occurred in later half of 1990s. All of this is a long winded way of saying the country was far less politically polarized, the mood was far more optimistic and people were generally much better off during at that time than they are in 2020. This is why most people did not care about GW Bush stealing the election from a lackluster neoliberal and conservative democrat such as Al Gore.

Let me remind you that Clinton42 won states in both 1992 and 1996 (LA, TN, WV, KY, AR, AZ, GA etc) which Democrats have not won for almost two decades. My point, once again, is that the public mood and degree of political polarization in late-1990s was very different from what we have today. Today things are.. much weirder than in 2000, and not in a good way. If the Bush vs Gore farce had occurred in the current political environment we would have major and prolonged riots in many cities- much worse than what we saw in past few months. And we are still talking about conventional mediocre political candidates with zero charisma or dedicated followers. In other words, a repeat of even the 2000 scenario with Trump vs Biden would make the craziness we saw in past few months look tame in comparison.

2] Let us move on the next question, namely whether partisan Republican voters will accept a “win” in a tight contest by Biden- especially if it is almost exclusively built on mail-in ballots? This is not a trivial question, since that scenario is far more likely than anybody wants to admit. What happens if Trump “wins” on election night and appears to be in the lead for a few days only to fall behind Dementia Joe after more mail-in ballots are suddenly discovered in certain swing states? Do you think Trump supporters (especially the ones with guns) are going to take this scenario lying down- especially given the unusually high levels of political polarization on top of all the disruption caused by COVID-19 shutdowns? Do you really think there won’t be street fights all over the country between Democrat supporters and armed MAGA-types? Do people such as MikeCA comprehend the significance and full consequences of this type of civil strife?

And it gets worse. Let us assume, for a moment, that Dementia Joe ends up being declared the “winner”. What are his plans to get the economy back in gear after all the job losses caused by COVID-19 shutdown? Are Democrats stupid enough to think that they can do a 180 and open everything within next week or month after inauguration? Do they think people will forget how much they were in favor of perpetual lockdowns, endless testing and all that other bullshit? Do they have the willingness and ability to pass trillions of dollars in assistance to make the 99% whole again? Do they have any plans for compensating the millions of small business which have either closed down or will do so soon? Do they have any plans to govern other than passing more “gun control” laws and endlessly talking about a “return to normality and civility”? And do they think there will be no resistance from armed MAGA fanatics?

3] Things don’t look better if Trump wins, either. For starters, he is almost guaranteed to lose the popular vote, even if he wins the electoral college. What happens if his “wins” in swing states are due to massive rejections and legal challenges of mail-in ballots? Do you think they will see him as a legitimate president, especially if he “wins” the electoral college under such circumstances? To be fair, many never saw him as a legitimate president in first place- even if they grudgingly accepted his electoral college victory in 2016. What happens if even that becomes controversial in 2020? What happens if Trump is declared as the “winner” under very shady conditions? What recourse do Democrats have? Will there be even more street protest, widespread and prolonged rioting, possible armed encounters between them and armed MAGA types? What about all those people who have become chronically unemployed or lost their small businesses due to COVID-19 shutdowns? Whose side will they take under such conditions?

What happens if nothing improves for people whose livelihood has been destroyed by COVID-19 shutdowns after Trump’s “victory”? Will that cause even more civic unrest and prolonged rioting? What happens if we start seeing occasional mass shootings at protests and clashes between protesters from different factions? What happens if Democratic-governed states decide to not open schools and universities in Winter 2021 out of spite after losing the election? Do you realize how unpredictable things can get with tens of millions of desperate,poor and unemployed people in this country right now- a statistic which is unlikely to change in near future. Now add in the risk of Trump starting a disastrous war with Iran or Venezuela just before the election or doing some other stupid shit to improve his poll numbers before election day?

In summary, 2020 can get far more ‘interesting’ than it has been so far- and this is not a good thing, to put it mildly.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Recent Developments in the 2020 Democratic Primaries: 1

February 13, 2020 8 comments

Regular readers of my blog might remember that I wrote a few posts in 2015 and 2016 about my thoughts on the 2016 presidential election- party primaries as well as actual electoral campaign. Not to toot my horn too much (again), but I correctly predicted that Trump would win republican party nomination within a few weeks of entering the race and how he would defeat Hilary in the general election as early as February 2016. More importantly, I never changed my opinion about both outcomes based on the latest bullshit narratives and lies pumped out by decrepit and dying corporate media outlets such as NYT, WP, CNN, MSNBC etc. As it turned out, my assessment was more correct than every single one of those incestuous presstitutes.. also known as “credentialed journalists”.. who were (and still are) each paid millions of dollars per year by those outlets. I can sense that MikeCA will get triggered by this paragraph as I am writing it.. lol.

I initially considered not writing about this quadrennial election cycle, because I know it is going to be a much bigger shitshow than the previous one. But after some more thought, and one small trial balloon, have decided to write about it. I will, however, not focus on every shitshow and fake controversy along the way because there will be tons of them. Furthermore, I write as a hobby and despite of what MikeCA might want to believe, I have not made a single cent out of writing this blog or any other. With that out of the way, let me recommend a new and interesting article by Matt Taibbi which summarizes a possibility which I also increasingly see as being very likely. The very short version of that article is as follows: Bernie will win the party nomination outright or get a plurality of delegates in 2020 for the same reasons Trump did in 2016. This is likely since Bernie, like Trump, has a very devoted and significant core of voter support while those opposing him are competing against each other to win the votes of those who are fine with the status quo.

Readers might have noticed how dying corporate media outlets have been busy pumping up each establishment candidate in succession only to see them deflate in a spectacular fashion and then move on to the next one. First they were trying to sell the inevitability of Biden, then it was the summer of Liz Warren, the fall of McKinsey Buttboy and now the rise of that woman who abuses her staff. As things stand today, Biden’s primary campaign, like the candidate, is rapidly falling apart after getting walloped in Iowa and New Hampshire. Lying Harvard lady.. I mean, Elizabeth Warren.. is doing no better, especially given the time and money she invested in both states. McKinsey Buttboy is trying to pull a Juan Guaido even though he has close to zero support among non-white and non-affluent white voters. Did I mention that Pyscho boss-lady has no realistic path beyond New Hampshire. And we haven’t even talked about the effect of the two billionaires aka Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg’s campaigns in later states.

Let us first talk about the recent Iowa primary.. well, the parts other than the purposely botched caucus and McKinsey Buttboy declaring victory before even a single partial result was declared. You might have heard that the aggregate turnout at that state caucus this year was lower than 2020. Well, the total turnout this year was higher than 2016 but lower than 2008. The turnout of youth voters (as a percentage of total) was however slightly higher than 2008 and much higher than 2016. While this is not especially good, it is certainly not bad- especially for a party which has blown so much political capital because of their obsession with the bullshit RussiaGate and UkraineGate investigations and predictably unsuccessful attempt at removing Trump through impeachment. I mean.. you cannot seriously expect record-breaking turnout at the primary of a party whose establishment is pushing nonsense that many of their potential voters don’t give a flying fuck about. And they kept changing the caucus site locations till the day before primary.

Moving on to the New Hampshire democrat primary, the turnout this year was significantly higher than 2016 and will probably exceed 2008. Also, unlike the shitshow of Iowa’s primary the one in New Hampshire went well and results were available later that night. I probably do not have to tell you that Bernie got the most votes, just like he did in Iowa. Sure, the victory margin was less than 2016 because a field with over eight candidates (at least five major ones) has different dynamics than an election with just two. In my opinion, Elizabeth Warren was the biggest loser coming out of that primary since her two consecutive poor performances and tepid support in subsequent states ensures that her campaign (barring some Deus Ex Machina twist) is, for all practical purposes, dead. Even though Amy Klobuchar, aka Psycho boss-woman, did better than expected- her campaign is also dead since she has really poor numbers in upcoming states.

Moving on to McKinsey Buttboy, who was the corporate media darling before Pyscho boss-lady, his campaign will probably hand around till South Carolina or more likely super Tuesday- when it becomes glaringly obvious to his backers that he has no chance. While Biden has been utterly humiliated due to his poor showing in the first two primaries, I would not consider his campaign dead until he is defeated or flounders badly in Nevada and South Carolina. While it is true that his campaign does not have much money and big donors are increasingly skeptical of his chances, older Bill Cosby-worshiping blacks still haven’t deserted him en masse yet. We also have to factor in that bland neoliberal billionaires such as Tom Steyer are pretty competitive in the stupid.. I mean southern.. states. Did I mention that Bloomberg has also setup some committee which large donors can join for free if they pledge to not support any other candidates?

As some have already said, it increasingly appears that the democratic primary will be between Bernie and Bloomberg. Sure.. something totally unexpected can change this building trend but the simple fact is that Bernie has (by far) the largest grassroots support and capability to raise funds from them while Bloomberg is among the ten richest men in USA. One more thing.. the democratic party will lose 2020 presidential election if it is stupid enough to choose Bloomberg as their candidate for reasons I will explain in the next part.

What do you think? Comments?

Recent Iowa Democrat Caucus was the 737-MAX of Electoral Primaries

February 5, 2020 22 comments

By now, all of you might must have heard that the democrat party presidential primary caucus for 2020 in Iowa was an epic shitshow. At the time of writing this brief post, the “official” results had not even crossed the 75% mark (74.79% to be precise)– and it has been almost three days after the shitshow was over. It is clear to me that the Iowa democratic party (IDP) is trying to delay the final results as long as possible to make sociopathic Pete Buttboy look like the “winner”, even though it is obvious that Bernie Sanders won it. It goes without saying that dying and discredited corporate media outlets such as CNN and MSNBC are also fully into this scam. To that end, the DNC and its local people at the IDP are intentionally delaying announcing the results of specific large caucus locations known to be very favorable to Bernie Sanders.

Have a look at this post from the Intercept about how the last-minute “App” developed for official data collection in this state caucus was a product of democratic establishment insiders. Read about how the specific person behind the appropriately (and ironically) named ‘Shadow’ app was a controversial and very pro-establishment figure in the democratic party. Did I mention that this person, a certain Tara McGowan, was a big supporter of Pete Buttboy’s presidential campaign? It is also rather interesting that she is married to Michael Halle, a political consultant who worked as a lead organizer in Iowa for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and is a senior strategist for Pete Buttboy. Incompetent credentialed losers live and breathe in small incestuous circles, don’t they?

But it gets better. The team of incompetent credentialed insider losers who were responsible for this app were neither software experts or good at anything beyond deep-kissing establishment democrat ass. They were all part of Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful 2016 presidential campaign.. you know, the one here she lost a election to a lecherous reality-show host. Of course, there has been no official explanation as to why a small team of incompetent political operatives were paid hundreds of thousands to develop an app that nobody needed and which was not tested under anything approaching real-life conditions- if at all. Oh.. and the backup phone-based system to communicate results to party headwaters was mysteriously not working properly on that day.

But it gets even better. Sociopath Pete Buttboy’s campaign was a very recent donor to the make-believe “corporation” which made the shitty app that was unnecessary and misreported numbers- if it even worked. While there are those who attribute this still ongoing shitshow to terminal institutional incompetence on the part of democratic establishment, it is my opinion that more than a little malice was also involved. Michael Tracey makes a very good argument that the Iowa Caucus results should be voided, since any results that come out of this epic clusterfuck with oodles of malice are unlikely to be trusted by most people- especially those voting in upcoming democratic primaries. Did I mention that Iowa caucus turnout was mediocre this year, though younger than previous years. Apparently, the Trump impeachment bullshit isn’t selling in Iowa.

The fact that democrat party establishment could screw up their own primary caucus in the same week as they failed to get Trump removed from office tells you all you need to know about the state of that party. Then again, what can you expect from a party which (just like its republican counterpart) is still living in a world that no longer exists. I am sure we will hear more about how this fiasco went down by this weekend and it likely wont be the last one in 2020.

What do you think? Comments?

2019 and 2020 Will be Much Bigger Shitshows than 2015 and 2016

May 30, 2019 17 comments

As regular readers know, I often make predictions on a number of topics which later turn out to be right (or pretty close) with a high rate of success. More importantly, I am able to accurately identify the underlying dynamics, trends and forces responsible for the ultimate outcomes. Now let me make another seemingly obvious prediction, but with far greater insight and details than possible for quacks.. I mean credentialed “experts”. My prediction is that 2019 and 2020 will be far larger and more problematic shitshows than 2015 and 2016. Some of you (MikeCA?) might argue that every day since the election of Trump has been a shitshow.. and that is technically sorta true. But if you think that 2017 and 2018 were shitshows, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

There are many reasons why this period of 1.5 years will be an epic meta-shitshow of the likes we haven’t witnessed in living memory. However, it is not simply the sheer number or magnitude of individual shitshows that will make this period memorable, but how one shitshow will feed into another and so on.. you know, synergy. But before we go there, let us talk about why 2015 and 2016 marked the beginning of our current era of shitshows. It all began with an orange Buffoon riding down a gaudy escalator alongside a trophy wife with a face pumped full of cosmetic Botox. Initially it seemed that his campaign for the republican presidential nomination was just another publicity stunt to obtain a larger payout from the reality show in which he was starring.

However it became obvious to me within 4-6 weeks that his outrageous and colorful persona had far more public support than effete Washington DC ‘insiders’ realized. And yes.. I never changed my opinion on that issue and turned out be right. And ya.. I also predicted he would win against Hillary in early 2016, even at times when even the most radical presstitues.. I mean journalists.. thought that HRC might somehow prevail against him on election day. I also explored the real reasons why HRC would lose to that buffoon– before the election took place. FYI- majority of my accurate predictions have been about issues and topics other than Trump. But enough about the orange buffoon. Let us now talk about Brexit- more precisely, why the ‘remain’ side lost.

MSM news outlets in that rapidly decaying country (UK) want you to believe that Brexit was due to the stupidity of poorly educated people in that country. However a simple look at the geography of that vote tells you all you need about Brexit. Long story short, post-2008 austerity measures in UK hit parts of the country that are not London pretty hard. People who live in those regions, aka most of that country, got progressively disillusioned with the shitty status quo. They expressed their discontent by voting against something which stood as a placeholder for the widely reviled status quo. You know.. just like people in the Mid-West finally got tired of Obama’s 8-year long lie about “Hope and Change” voted for Trump over the symbol of continuity aka HRC.

But both these shocks to the Establishment, their aftermath and colorful rhetoric accompanying both those changes are nothing compared to what we will witness in 2019 and 2020. While I will restrict my predictions to USA, things are also likely to get interesting in other parts of the world- maybe a bit too interesting. But before we go to the list, a word of caution. The most obvious reasons are unlikely to be the most consequential. The less glamorous reasons, further down the list, carry far more weight than the shiny but superficial ones which are obvious. So let us start by listing them in order of apparent obviousness.

1] Ever since Trump won the republican nomination in mid-2016, democratic establishment and deep state types have been trying to find enough dirt to stop his victory in the 2016 presidential election (which they failed) or impeach him. As things stand today, they have not uncovered anything more scandalous than Trump getting his disgraced lawyer to pay hush money to two women he had sex with while married to his current wife. While this revelation does provide fodder for supermarket tabloids, it is totally unsurprising and in line with Trump’s past behavior. More importantly, the Mueller investigation has not uncovered evidence of “collusion” between Trump and Russia or Putin. Nor has it shown any definitive evidence for obstruction of justice by Trump. And I know MikeCA will have something to say about my characterization of that report.

But these severe setbacks have not stopped an increasing number of democrats from demanding his impeachment, because face it.. they always knew he was “guilty” of something impeachable. Today, the patron saint of pro-impeachment brigade aka Robert Mueller came out and all but openly encouraged democrats to start the impeachment process, even though his report does not contain enough evidence to prosecute Trump for either “collusion” or obstruction of justice. And ya.. I am aware of the legalese bullshit about not being able to exonerate him- but let us get real, people are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. It also helps to be rich and white, but that is a topic for another post. My prediction is that democrats will initiate pre-impeachment proceedings against Trump, irrespective of potential negative effects it might have on their electoral prospects in 2020. But how does this translate into a nasty shitshow?

Well.. for a few reasons. Firstly, it is unlikely Trump will be impeached, tried and made to resign before November 3, 2020. Secondly, the pre-impeachment investigation is going to be long and highly contentious. It will also overshadow democratic primaries and possibly the presidential election to such an extent that other issues will be effectively sidelined. So be prepared for a democratic primary in which candidates offer endless paeans to bipartisanship, civility in politics, reestablishing “norms” and impeaching Trump at the expense of all the other stuff most voters in the general election actually care about. You know.. stuff like antitrust action against various monopolies and oligopolies, medicare for all, doing something about student debt etc. Think of HRCs “what will the children think” 2016 campaign on steroids. But in some ways, this will be smallest shitshow of them all.

2] Stupid old losers who constitute a majority of democratic primary voters in large states seem to be enamored by “gun control” aka banning civilian ownership of guns. Given that everyone in the packed clown car of democratic candidates is expected to appeal to them, one should expect increasingly shrill and strident anti-gun ownership rhetoric. While appealing to these losers might help one win the primary and a few coastal states in general, it is almost guaranteed to backfire in swing states- especially those with large rural and semi-urban populations. Now add in a few random mass shootings (almost inevitable?) between now and Nov 3, 2020 and you can imagine how nutty this could get. Expect the Democratic house to pass one or more atrociously written anti-gun ownership laws and a few high profile court cases.

To make matters worse, if that is possible, we have seen a recent trend by private corporate monopolies/ oligopolies based in heavily democratic states to deny services based on ideology. Here are a few recent examples.. Software Maker Salesforce Tells Gun Retailers to Stop Selling AR-15s, YouTube Alternatives for Gun Videos & Content Creators and Bank of America to Stop Financing Makers of Military-Style Guns. I, for one, don’t see how pissing off millions of well-armed and single-issue voters who live in gun-ownership friendly jurisdictions is a smart idea when your party has to win their votes in 2020. Then again, this is the same party which think that Joe Biden in 2020 would make the best general election candidate. Or maybe the Democrats don’t want to really win national elections. Who knows..

The large number of democratic candidates vying for the party nomination will make things even weirder than the republican field in 2016. We have all seen how small campaigns which use far less costly traditional advertising and advisers can prevail over larger “mainstream” operations. Between this and the proliferation of small donors, expect far more candidates to remain in the race even after the first major primaries are over. And the DNC and other party establishment are going to try hard, and ineffectually, to stop Bernie by hook or crook. Don’t be surprised if the 2020 democratic convention is held under even more acrimonious circumstances than 2016. And there will be anonymous leaks, just like last time. It is going to get real ugly by mid 2020.

3] Let us now turn to the less obvious, but far more consequential, trends which promise to make 2019 and 2020 the biggest shitshows in living memory. Long story short, we are due for at least three independent nasty blowbacks from Trump’s foreign and trade policies. Let us start by talking about Iran or more precisely how his stupid policy towards that country has the potential to backfire in a spectacularly disastrous manner. It is no secret that idiots such as Pompeo and Bolton, urged on by Zionists and Saudis, are trying to start a war. What they don’t understand, or are willing to understand, is that any war with Iran in addition being unwinnable would make the Iraq misadventure look like quaint in comparison. The outcome of such a war would include Iran finally developing nuclear weapons (perhaps with Chinese assistance), prolonged and massive oil shortages with resultant price hikes and many other bad long-term effects (on USA).

Moving on.. Kim Jon-un has repeatedly conveyed to USA that unless economic sanctions are at least partially removed by end of 2019, he will restart testing ICBMs. My guess is that DPRK will demonstrate an entirely solid-fueled ICBM in early 2020, unless Trump and the idiots running “foreign policy” in USA openly abandon the idea of DPRK giving up its nukes and ICBMS- because the later ain’t going to happen. Which means that sometime in 2020, Trump will have to decide on how to respond to new ICBM and perhaps even nuclear tests by DPRK. To make matters even more interesting, this escalation will likely occur around the same time as Iran is likely to finally leave the JCPOA and restart its uranium enrichment program at maximum capacity. But wait.. it gets even better, or worse, depending on your viewpoint.

As most of you know by now, Trump is involved in an unwinnable trade-war with China. And here is why.. China’s economy and manufacturing capacity is far larger than USA in real terms. While the american economy and system will implode without Chinese imports, the converse is not true. There is also no other country in the world that has as large, varied and sophisticated a manufacturing base as China. Did I mention that USA and rest of the “West” are economically stagnant, demand saturated and in overall decline. China is not going to compromise on Huawei, give in to demands of american corporations or basically change anything significant about how it works or does business. It is the USA and rest of “West” that will have to ultimately eat crow. And they will start hurting USA by screwing over Boeing and make life interesting for every american corporation which does significant amounts of business there or dependent on its exports.

Tensions with Russia could exacerbate further given the current political climate in USA and provide opportunity for yet another shitshow. Did I mention how conflicts between internet monopolies and right wingers could spill into the real world with potentially disastrous results for the former. To summarize, the rest of 2019 and whole of 2020 will almost certainly witness far larger and problematic shitshows than anything in living memory. Even worse, many of these shitshows could feed into each other to create meta-shitshows.

What do you think? Comments?