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Posts Tagged ‘strategy’

Kim Jong-un is Succeeding in Making South Korea Decouple from USA

May 25, 2018 6 comments

In a previous post about my thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s real motivations behind wanting to meet Trump, I wrote that DPRK wants to use the almost certain failure of such a meeting (if it were to even occur) to show that they, and not the USA, are the rational party. I made the point that the target audience for their display are people in South Korea, not USA. As I also wrote in that post, this is part of a clever multi-step strategy to drive a wedge between South Korea and USA. As of yesterday, it appears that the meeting is highly unlikely to occur on June 12. Of course, there is always the chance that it might still occur.. though I would not hold my breath in anticipation.

Here is a reminder of what I wrote on this point in my previous post on this topic..

Then next step for driving a wedge between them requires DPRK to put forth conditions for an agreement whose terms are perfectly acceptable to South Korea but will never be accepted by USA (even if they initially appear to be willing). We should therefore see the latest diplomatic overtures by Kim Jong-un as part of a strategy where he offers basically everything necessary for South Korea to accept the agreement but with just enough sticking points to be rejected by USA. That way, Kim Jong-un appears as the stable and reasonable person willing to deal with other countries such as South Korea while USA looks like some out-of-touch old white guy still living in the 1950s.

In any case, the game that DPRK is playing will work regardless of whether the meeting occurs or not. They know that the prevailing stance of american establishment towards their regime basically guarantees that such a meeting would fail even to achieve any substantive progress, even if it were to occur. Between their hate for Trump and sad delusions of white power, the american establishment is out of touch with anything approaching reality. As we have seen with the Iran Deal, the level of infighting, delusions of grandeur and sheer hubris among members of the american establishment are quite capable of sinking anything approaching a plausible and rational deal. Furthermore, this pathology is so embedded in the psyche of both older proles and establishment in USA, that it will probably last as long as they do.

Once again, to refresh your memory, this is what I wrote about it in my previous post..

They have figured out that different parts of the government in USA, such as the legislatures, can and will derail any agreement just because the D-grade actors within them like to “act tough” for the credulous idiots who voted for them. They are fully aware of the extent to which decisions made by legislators are controlled by corporate donors, especially from the military-industrial complex. In other words, DPRK understands that anything short of complete and utter capitulation by them is unacceptable to most cliques in the american government. But, they also know that many in South Korea are willing to sign an agreement with far more realistic terms.

And this brings us the question as to why DPRK issued such a nice and polite response to Trump cancelling the upcoming meeting. Here is a hint.. their main target audience is in South Korea. They are just making sure that everyone in South Korea and other relevant countries such as China, Russia etc can see that they are the rational party willing to enter into negotiations to make a realistic deal. In contrast, the almost predictable actions by Trump and his clique of neocon chicken-hawks make them look like delusional and irrational warmongers, especially in the wake of them also exiting the Iran deal. It also helps that Trump’s decision to cancel the meeting without providing any significant warning to the South Korean president makes him look weak to his own citizens in addition to being highly insulting.

But perhaps, more importantly, it makes it painfully clear to South Koreans that USA has no interest in helping solve this problem. It also confirms their suspicions that the USA is willing to start some stupid misadventure which could spiral into nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, for no reason other than to mollify its ego. And the best part, as far as DPRK is concerned, is that Trump and his clique of neocons are doing such a great job by unwittingly acting out their parts in the script. To make a long story short, the behavior of Trump and the american establishment leaves no real option for South Koreans than to start decoupling from USA and start mending their fences with DPRK. In case you are wondering, the only other option is a war which will result in the death of millions in South Korea.

DPRK might be half a world away from mainland USA, but it is next to South Korea. While the average person in USA can afford, at least at this moment, to pretend that they would not be affected in the event of war on the Korean peninsula, his or her counterpart in South Korea knows for a fact that they will have to pay a very high price for such an occurrence. Hence, South Koreans are far more interested in finding a way to peacefully co-exist with their counterparts in DPRK than people in USA. The recent charm offensive by Kim Jong-un in combination with the unrealistic and erratic behavior of Trump and the rest of the american establishment just make it far easier for South Koreans to start decoupling their foreign policy from that of USA. And decouple they will.. even if takes a year or two to start noticing the change.

What do you think? Comments?

Thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s Motivations Behind Wanting to Meet Trump

April 20, 2018 9 comments

With the corporate media fixating on non-issues such as Comey’s recent book, the Mueller fishing expedition, Stormy Daniels latest BS claims and the most hilarious photo of Michael Cohen, it is not easy for many people in USA to be aware of the world beyond their borders. Also, as they say, nobody has gone broke underestimating the intelligence of american public. With that in mind, let us talk about an apparently unusual recent development in the state of relations between DPRK and USA. In case you missed it, the most important words in that sentence are ‘apparently unusual’- for reasons you shall see later on in this post.

Now, I am sure that at least some of you must have wondered about what factors were behind the sudden improvement in state of relations between DPRK and ROK (South Korea) since just before the 2018 winter Olympics. Why have relations between these two countries experienced a significant positive shift since the beginning of this year? And what does any of this have to do with the recent diplomatic overtures DPRK is making towards USA?

As regular readers know, I have written more than a few articles in the past few months about DPRK, especially its ICBM and nuclear weapon program. One of the more recent articles written by me on that topic made an interesting claim about how ICBMS and Nukes finally got Kim Jong-un the international respect he (and his predecessors) have always wanted. In that post, I also pointed out that Kim Jong-un’s recent interest in dialogue with ROK and USA were actually quite predictable since he has, in the past, repeatedly talked about his desire for such talks after DPRK acquired nukes and reliable ICBMs.

In fact, the stance of DPRK on talks with South Korea and USA have been pretty consistent over the years. They have also been very clear about what they want from any such deal. To summarize, DPRK wants a guarantee of security and non-aggression from USA and South Korea in addition to lifting of all economic sanctions against them in exchange for any deal which requires them to freeze their nuclear and missile program. The funny thing is such a deal with DPRK was reached and almost implemented in 1994. But american hubris and delusions of omnipotence ended up sabotaging what was probably the best (and only) chance of DPRK giving up its nuclear weapons.

The failure of that deal under Clinton42 and being labelled as part of ‘the axis of evil’ by Bush43 did however teach DPRK an important lesson. They realized that any deal made with the USA without the means for to independently enforce it was not worth the paper on which it was written. That is why they decided to keep on developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Development of these weapon systems reached a new urgency once Kim Jong-un formally became the head of state and the results of that drive are plainly visible. To make a long story short, nuclear weapons and ICBMs are the means by which DPRK can enforce any agreements it makes with USA and South Korea.

But haven’t we all heard some noise about DPRK willing to denuclearize soon? Well.. you heard wrong. DPRK is just repeating what it has always said, which is that it willing to participate in talks about denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The precise wording does change a bit every time they make that offer, however the general gist of their demands remains the same. In short, they will denuclearize only if guaranteed safety from future military attacks or invasion by USA or South Korea. The problem with that condition is that USA has proved to be a completely unreliable party to such agreements in the past, with DPRK and more recently with countries in the Middle-East.

It does not help that no country has renounced self-developed nuclear weapons once they have built more than a few of them. Nor does the american treatment of countries which did not have them (Iraq) or stopped developing them (Libya) inspire any confidence. So what is Kim Jong-un trying to achieve by meeting with Trump? Also, is this meeting really about Trump or USA? Some jingoistic idiots in USA think that Kim Jong-un expressing a desire to meet Trump is the result of “economic sanctions working”, “China finally getting tired of DPRK” or some other assorted masturbatory fantasy common among older white men. The reality, once again, is quite different.

The proposed meeting with Trump is largely about chipping away at the alliance between South Korea and USA. And here is why.. For starters, the ruling class in DPRK have a very good and objective understanding of how the establishment in USA works or does not work. They know that the deep state in USA is incapable of doing things other than more war, economic sanctions or attempting to rape the economies of other countries. They understand that any treaty with USA without independent means to enforce it is worthless. They also understand that anything short of dissolving the current system in DPRK will not be acceptable to the deep state in USA- and that is not going to happen.

They have figured out that different parts of the government in USA, such as the legislatures, can and will derail any agreement just because the D-grade actors within them like to “act tough” for the credulous idiots who voted for them. They are fully aware of the extent to which decisions made by legislators are controlled by corporate donors, especially from the military-industrial complex. In other words, DPRK understands that anything short of complete and utter capitulation by them is unacceptable to most cliques in the american government. But, they also know that many in South Korea are willing to sign an agreement with far more realistic terms.

So how do you drive a permanent wedge between South Korea and USA? Well.. you start by developing the capacity to reliably nuke large metropolitan areas in mainland USA. Acquisition of such a capacity by DPRK makes any serious conventional or nuclear assault on it by USA and South Korea basically impossible. It also makes significant american intervention in any armed conflict between DPRK and South Korea far less likely than before. But that by itself is not enough to drive a wedge between them, which is why you require the second part.

Then next step for driving a wedge between them requires DPRK to put forth conditions for an agreement whose terms are perfectly acceptable to South Korea but will never be accepted by USA (even if they initially appear to be willing). We should therefore see the latest diplomatic overtures by Kim Jong-un as part of a strategy where he offers basically everything necessary for South Korea to accept the agreement but with just enough sticking points to be rejected by USA. That way, Kim Jong-un appears as the stable and reasonable person willing to deal with other countries such as South Korea while USA look like some out-of-touch old white guy still living in the 1950s.

But why do such something like this, if it is almost certain to fail? After all, South Korea is unlikely to sign an agreement without the explicit approval of USA.. right? But here is the thing.. DPRK understands that and actually wants that outcome because of what such a public failure will lead to. While South Korea will not sign an agreement without explicit american consent at this moment, it might very well have to do within a couple of years. Face it.. DPRK with its nukes and ICBMs is going to magically disappear if you wait long enough and South Korea understands that only too well. They also know that some stupid miscalculation by USA (especially the Trump administration) in near future could get them nuked regardless of who started the conflict.

In summary, the long-term survival and strategic interests of South Korea are no longer in line with american policy towards that region. DPRK understands this inherent contradiction and is cleverly using it to split the close alliance between South Korea and USA. To them, the proposed meeting with Trump is therefore just an opportunity to decisively show South Koreans and the world that they are far more reasonable than USA. They also know that the sheer amount of vitriol against Trump by the deep state in USA will cancel out any reasonable move made by him in such a meeting.

What do you think? Comments?

The Genius of Kathy Griffin’s Intentionally Inflammatory Photo Shoot

May 31, 2017 19 comments

More than a few of you might have (by now) come across news, photos or video clips showing the controversial photo shoot by Kathy Griffin holding what resembles a bloody severed head with vague resemblance to Donald Trump. Predictably many on the right have blown their gasket or are pretending to be offended. A few like Mike Cernovich, aka one of Thiel’s butt boys, are even celebrating making CNN say that they won’t have her on their new year show. Frankly, I find all of this funny and predictable. But that is not the real story..

The real story is how Kathy Griffin, an otherwise forgettable but clever celebrity, has played the system like a maestro.

Not sure what I am talking about? Let me explain. Kathy Griffin, you see, is no newcomer to the entertainment and celebrity scene. She has been in the entertainment industry with a high degree of regularity since at least the early 1990s. Her career longevity is even more remarkable when you consider huge premiums on youth and looks in the entertainment industry. My point is that she is very good at playing the game of getting hired and remaining relevant. So you can be sure that she has done her homework before doing yesterday’s controversial photo shoot.

So why did she do a photo shoot which was certain to raise hell and result in some temporary setbacks? What is she trying to achieve? What does she hope to gain? And how is she playing the system? Well.. let me explain.

1] Kathy Griffin understands her real employers very well. She know that pretty much everyone with any real hiring power in the entertainment sector detest Donald Trump as a president. She also knows that those same people also have nothing but contempt for all those flyover country rubes who voted for Trump. In other words, the people with real hiring power in that sector are not going to boycott her. If anything, her little controversy is going to elicit their admiration and support behind closed doors resulting in more employment- not less. Face it, she just did what many of them would have loved to do in person but did not or could not.

2] She also understands that her core audience, and major source of income from performances, live in affluent coastal states who vote heavily for democrats. Once again, she put into her photo shoot what a majority of her audience already think and say behind closed doors. While she might lose a few gigs in flyover country, the number of gigs in coastal states will not be affected except perhaps in the very short-term. Once Trump does a few more stupid and unpopular things, nobody is going to care about the offensiveness of that particular photo shoot.

3] Her photo shoot went after the most controversial and generally unpopular president in living memory. You might remember that many more people have marched against Trump after he was elected than have attended his inauguration. Furthermore, the USA as a country is more polarized and divided today than at any time in living memory. Also, many hardcore democrats are aware of how republicans encouraged similar gestures against Obama when he was elected in 2008 and 2012. Consequently, Kathy knows that she is not going to lose the majority of her loyal audience. In fact, it is likely that she will become more popular and richer because of that stunt.

4] Republicans living in flyover country do not count for much (if anything) as far as their discretionary income is concerned. Consequently their disapproval or willingness to boycott is largely meaningless. People in the entertainment sector are far more concerned about antagonizing sensibilities of consumers in China than of those living in flyover country. We can certainly talk about whether this is fair or not, but we cannot deny that those living in flyover country no longer have power to influence the course of popular culture in USA. They just have not accepted it yet.

To summarize, Kathy Griffin recent controversial photo shoot was a clever and calculated move. She knew exactly what she was doing, where it would lead to, what short-term problems would arise from it and how it would improve her long-term prospects. She played the system, especially internet outrage from the alt-right types, like a pro. You do not have to like somebody to appreciate the quality of their scheming, cynicism and deviousness.

What do you think? Comments?